We need a better running game.
I realize this post will be contrary to what many fans believe about the 2011 Denver Broncos. Many fans hang their hat on the fact that Denver was "#1" in the NFL in rushing, and they believe that we only won because of our running game, given that the passing game was so anemic. I've argued with various folks on MHR that our running game really isn't as good as it looks, at least in the areas that matter. Let me illustrate after the fold.
| Att | Yards | Wins | ** | Yards/Att | Wins | ** | TD% | ** | 1st Down/Attempt | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denver | 546 | 2632 | 8 | 1 | Car | 5.4 | 6 | 1 | Car | 5.80% | 6 | 1 | Car | 0.312 | 6 | |||
| 2 | Hou | 546 | 2448 | 10 | 2 | Min | 5.2 | 3 | 2 | Phi | 4.40% | 8 | 2 | Phi | 0.298 | 8 | |||
| 3 | Car | 445 | 2408 | 6 | 3 | Phi | 5.1 | 8 | 3 | NE | 4.10% | 13 | 3 | NO | 0.269 | 13 | |||
| 4 | Min | 448 | 2318 | 3 | 4 | NO | 4.9 | 13 | 4 | NYG | 3.70% | 9 | 4 | Min | 0.263 | 3 | |||
| 5 | Phi | 450 | 2276 | 8 | 5 | Buf | 4.9 | 6 | 5 | Min | 4% | 3 | 5 | Buf | 0.256 | 6 | |||
| 6 | Denver | 4.8 | 26t | Denver | 2% | 8 | Denver | 0.236 | |||||||||||
| 7 Wins | 7.2 Wins | 7.8 Wins | 7.2 Wins |
Looking at the above categories, "total yards" had the poorest correlation to winning of these categories for the 2011 NFL season. The category with the best correlation to winning, was TD% of attempts. Denver was one of the worst teams in this regard, and without Tebow would have been. What made this season difficult on offense, was Tebow would have to score, whether it was on the ground or through the air. There was very little production in terms of scoring from the other skill players. The old adage that "a running game is a QB's best friend" is true, except maybe if the QB is a big chunk of it. I don't want to diss McGahee's season--it was a real achievement. We haven't had a 1000 yard rusher in a while and he resurrected his career in the process. There were times where he showed a fantastic burst to the second level, but only a couple times did he get into the endzone on a big run. When we did get down to the goal line, he wasn't able to punch it in and for the most part we depended on Tebow to bang it in from short.
Our short running game wasn't very effective for stretches of the season. We win the Tennessee game if McGahee gets it in from the Ten 1 yard line. Any running game at all would have helped us win the opener against Oak too. Later in year we had quite a few 3rd & <2 situations where we couldn't convert. Overall, we were successful on 3rd & <2 62% of the time running the football. That sounds good when you're a 30% 3rd down team, but we need to better next year. Teams that convert that 8 or 9 times out of ten can keep drives going. That would be the easiest way to improve on third down--run better on 3rd and short!
We ran a hell of a lot on first and second downs this year. At times we were very effective but for the most part, we had way too many 3rd and longs. Yes, part of that was because Tebow had such a low completion percentage. But if you look at the play-by-plays, there were many drives that stalled because we ran running plays that didn't produce. Our running game was feast or famine, and when it was famine, we either kept doing the same thing or tried to depend on Tebow to suddenly light on fire. Over a third of our 3rd down situations were 3rd and >8 to go. We converted 13/73 of such situations (18%).
I don't know what all the solutions are to get more efficiency from the running game, but I think we need someone who can get to the second level quicker. I myself don't believe Moreno is the guy. Johnson may have some of that burst but he didn't get enough playing time to get a good look this year. Likely we need a speedy draft pick. Older or even mid age free agents probably won't cut it. We need more speed at the position.
We also need someone who can be a bulldozer in the short yardage situations. We need that to be automatic. McGahee converted 7 of 12 3rd down attempts when under 2 to go (heck Lance Ball was 5/5!). That isn't good enough. We need someone else because Tebow wasn't much better (4 of 7).
In summary, I think we need two things to fix the running game--a speedy devil and a bulldozer. Rarely is this the same human being. Many of the mock drafts have us going for a speedy runner. I totally agree but I think we need the bruiser also, from somewhere. Thoughts?
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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David Wilson, VTech speed demon 4.4 40 in 2nd round, Dorrell Scott, S Florida 6th round Bulldozier 6’1’’ 245lbs
I agree - Denver was not effective in their running
They just ran the ball so much that it was quantity over quality. McCoy watched Remember the Titans too many times.
Lamar Miller or David Wilson would be awesome.
If we get a speedy devil
McGahee can be our bruiser. At least for next year.
Go Broncos!
2011 AFC West Champions
At worst our run game was average
At best it was great. At best our passing game was terrible, at best it was average, there’s no way I’m going to point our running game as our biggest need for improvement on our offense. So yes our running game can improve, but our passing game needs a lot more improvement, we could go into the next season with our run game and be solid, we go into the season with this same passing game, we are in trouble. That’s how I gauge where improvement is needed.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
The trouble I have is we didn't capitalize often enough
We have amazing running numbers if you consider what we wee facing most of the season. Option or not, everyone knew we were going to run, yet we still avereage well over 4 yds per carry. My issue is we only capitalized on defenses selling out to stop our run in the PIT game. NE did the same thing, in a more creative way, and we had no answer. They comitted a lot of resources close to the line of scrimmage, crowded our recievers, and kept one or two safeties deep. That should have allowed us to throw intermediate routes all day, but we didn’t. Not sure if we can’t, couldn’t or wouldn’t. Whatever the case may be, it didn’t happen. And I think if we want to be better, or even as good next year, we have to hit teams in the 10-15 yard passing range.
How about gauging it by TOUCH DOWNS produced...?
Just a thought.
53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...
by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 23, 2012 9:13 PM MST up reply actions
Compare what REAL production is...
Broncos 1998 2468 Yards, 26 TDs (1 by Elway)
Broncos 2011 2632 Yards, 11 TDs (6 by Tebow)
To me, our run-game was solid between the 20’s… but wasn’t effective in the Red Zone. The number of attempts was very similar between the two years (546 vs 525), but my guess is the play-calling was vastly different in 1998. You wouldn’t have caught Mike Shannahan running 23 of 24 first down plays with a run like you did with Mike McCoy. But, who knows… maybe next year we’ll have a break-out year all around where Timmy’s throwing 30 plus TDs and the RBs are running for 20+ TDs.
53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...
by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 23, 2012 9:22 PM MST up reply actions
You do realize that both rushing and passing struggled in the RZ?
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
The lack of redzone production is two fold
ONE – we need to open up the pass game in those short yardage situations. We NEED to find that dynamic TE that will force the LBs to hesitate just a step as they HAVE to worry about a short pass to the our TE. Also, as DT got better near the end of the season I think you will see him used more and more on those 1st and 10 plays and short yardage either in redzone or not. He is a HUGE target for Tebow, add that TE and defenses will have to play much more honest in the redzone and short yardage situations.
TWO – what we lack is the HOMERUN style RB. Nothing against McGahee as he had a tremendous year. But who of us isn’t 99% sure that some of those big runs he did have would not have gone for TD by a younger faster version of McGahee??? And MG had several TD runs of his own. We just need that younger guy that can share time with MG and break a few long TD runs next year.
This offense stumbled (not counting Pitt playoff game) when teams did not have to play us honest. Part on Tebow, part on inconsistent WR play, part on lack of dynamic TE. We will get much better next year. Tebow will be much more aggressive in those situations he struggled this year. Just a few pieces missing, mainly that ability to EXPLODE at anytime.
The balancing act of the draft is a two edged sword and finding BPA picks at a need is very difficult to do when there are so many holes to fill.
Your right though about our running game, there are a lot of questions that needs be answered. And the old saying…“What’s a mother to do” rings loudly in the Broncos direction, shouting from the very rooftop of Dove Valley… “You got needs”! I, like EFX am a proponent of getting the BPA period at the time of selection, even if that player is not a direct need. For instance… If EFX pick the best defensive tackle on their board at #25 and a player like Kendall Wright which is a WR is there at #57, then most definitely select him even though he might not be a direct need, but an indirect need. And, so goes it throughout the 7 rounds.
That sounds easy enough, but let’s remember, we’re still in the rebuilding mode, and, it will be nearly impossible to build the whole team this year into the ultimate contender. It takes time and lot’s of evaluation, along with very smart moves across the board. Getting the RB of the future might be harder than it may seem or look, as the timing has to be just right with the right acquisition. Please, no ‘reaching’ into the cookie jar to get the cookie you need, that’s a foolish mistake a lot of teams make (Atlanta Falcons in 2011 draft) when they feel like they are desperate and unwilling to let the process work itself out. Trust your scouts to give you the vital information needed to make the right choices. Do your homework, and it should pay off with dividends in the end. Outsmart you opponents (teams drafting ahead and behind you, know their needs better than they do) and use their weaknesses of desperation against them, and in doing so, always keep the upper hand on any deals.
I think the RB position is one of need, and like you said…A very important one indeed. I feel that EFX will address this some time from the beginning of Free Agency and at the end of the Draft, and UDFAs. Predicting any FAs available at this time is not a good idea as we know not what will happen between the player and their team from now and then. It is always fun though, speculating about the many possibilities there might be. I’ve been intrigued with RB Chris Polk, Washington, and if he is available at #57 then imo would be the BPA…What say ye…
Win, lose or draw, we are the Denver Broncos! 13-3 Baby!!! Until we ain't!
BTW...I give this post a big thumbs up...Rec'd.
Win, lose or draw, we are the Denver Broncos! 13-3 Baby!!! Until we ain't!
by bfree2bronc on Jan 22, 2012 10:13 PM MST up reply actions
Thanks. Agreed with everything you say bfree.
Adding someone like Polk, Miller, or Wilson as well as Tolbert from FA would fit the bill it seems to me. We hang on to McGahee and we’d have a great group.
Running isn't all about the runner though...
Talent helps… sure, but I think the main reason that Foster is as good as he is… is because of the oline and scheme in Houston. Those guys man handled one of the best fronts in the league in one of the most important games of either team’s season.
If we are going to be successful… it means that our Oline needs to build on this season. It also might mean that we find a replacement/sub for Kuper. IDK… maybe bring in a Vet RT and let OFrank play a little guard.
I agree with you a bunch
WE regular had an extra linemen and 2 TE’s that were linemen in the game. We should have had better stats than we did. If you take away some of the runs that Tebow had that were really pass plays that he escaped and made big yards from, you would be surprised how much less effective the numbers would show.
Clark #75 was in on most 1st down plays. This is a disadvantage in that we ALWAYS ran. If they would have done some stuff to mix it up, it would have been more effective.
SD guy -
agree on all fronts, as usual.
Well written! Where’d the stats come from? Football outsiders?
53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...
by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 23, 2012 9:13 PM MST reply actions
PFF probably...You have to subscribe to the site to get the goodies...
Win, lose or draw, we are the Denver Broncos! 13-3 Baby!!! Until we ain't!
by bfree2bronc on Jan 23, 2012 10:04 PM MST up reply actions
I've got nothing fancy for stat resources.
I use Profootball ref and the Bronco stuff I have from my tedious nerdy analysis I like doing. :)
An interesting presentation, thanks
I do think there is a need for improvement, but I think that has a lot to do with the need to balance the running game with an effective passing game.
I would be interested in having someone explain to me how Denver with their very low 2% TD/A rate — which was approximately 1/3 of Carolina’s league-leading rate, ended up with 1/3 more wins than the Panthers.
The other thing I find interesting is that all of the top winning teams in 2011 (GB 15-1, NE 13-3, NO 13-3, SF 13-3, Bal 12-4, Pit 12-4) — with the exception of NE — were at or below the 3.7% TD by rushing attempt rate shown in the chart:
GB 3.0, NE 4.1, NO 3.7, SF 2.8, Bal 3.2, Pit 2.9
The 2011 Denver Broncos: An E ticket ride
btw, SD guy, I've agreed with the idea that yards is not the most accurate way to rate offenses for a long time
The 2011 Denver Broncos: An E ticket ride
by Brian Shrout on Jan 24, 2012 7:58 AM MST up reply actions
Hey great comment Brian.
Interestingly the top five teams in passing TD% averaged 11.8 wins (vs my stat above regarding rushing TD% at 7.8). That’s a 4 win difference, and it backs up the idea that the NFL is a passing league.
You’re observation about Denver doing better than Carolina is an interesting one. I think it’s because Tebow was actually very effective at passing late in games and it made up for the running game struggles. In fact Tebow’s passing TD% in the 4th Quarter would be 6th in the NFL (over 5%). The fact is, we won games via the pass just like everyone else. It’s just that we didn’t pass till the fourth quarter, and our running game and defense was good enough to keep it close against mid and lower level teams. Of course this strategy gets us slaughtered against the good teams (till Pit when we “pulled the trigger”). Why we didn’t change strategies against better shoot out type of teams is the $1000 question.
I think you may be pleasantly surprised
If you look at Fox’s history (and remember that McCoy was part of Fox’s staff in Carolina), we see that in his 9 seasons in Carolina, the Run/Pass balance:
Favored the pass in 5 seasons (2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2010)
Favored the run in 4 seasons (2003, 2005, 2008, 2009)
The largest imbalance was 55/45 (2008)
4 times the balance was 53/47 or 47/53 (2003, 2007, 2009, 2010)
The balance in Denver in 2011 was 56/44. I’m inclined to believe that we will see that gap narrow next season since it will be vital to force opposing defenses to respect the passing game.
The 2011 Denver Broncos: An E ticket ride
by Brian Shrout on Jan 24, 2012 10:37 AM MST up reply actions
I think you are right on there, Brian
If teams actually had to respect the Broncos passing game, the run would be a lot more effective. The Broncos faced a lot of stacked boxes and were still able to get yards. The Broncos running game will be a strength going forward. They will be a lot more efficient if Tebow can consistently make defenses pay for selling out to stop the run.
The Broncos had similar issues with Kyle Orton at QB; they could pass the ball between the twenties, but struggled in the red zone. The source of these issues is balance. Balance on offense will go a long way to getting this team more points and that should equal more wins.
"You’re only great if you win something. I mean, Alexander wasn’t Alexander the Mediocre or Alexander the Average. He was Alexander the Great, and there’s a reason for it."-Shannon Sharpe
A further observation on Fox & the Run/Pass balance
In the 3 seasons he took Carolina, the Run/Pass balance favored the run
2003 – 53/47
2005 – 52/48
2008 – 55/45
In the two seasons where the balance was fairly close, Fox got his team to the Super Bowl (2003) and the NFC Championship game (2005). In the season where there the largest imbalance of Fox’s tenure at Carolina, the Panthers bowed out in the divisional round.
The 2011 Denver Broncos: An E ticket ride
by Brian Shrout on Jan 24, 2012 12:09 PM MST up reply actions
McCoy is taking the blame for the disparity
But I think there is more to it than that. A big portion of the blame has to placed on Tebow’s shoulders. There is no doubt in my mind that Fox and McCoy would rather pass the ball to convert on third and medium. Often times, the Broncos would try to pick up that yardage running the ball because they had no confidence in passing to get it. The probability is very low they pick that yardage up consistently without passing. These third and medium instances resulted in a lot of empty rushing yards for the Broncos.
"You’re only great if you win something. I mean, Alexander wasn’t Alexander the Mediocre or Alexander the Average. He was Alexander the Great, and there’s a reason for it."-Shannon Sharpe
I'm also inclined to wonder how many of Tebow's runs
were originally called as pass plays. Which raises the question of how much latitude he was given to run the offense once the play started.
The 2011 Denver Broncos: An E ticket ride
by Brian Shrout on Jan 24, 2012 1:22 PM MST up reply actions
That is another good point
We’ll probably never know that answer
"You’re only great if you win something. I mean, Alexander wasn’t Alexander the Mediocre or Alexander the Average. He was Alexander the Great, and there’s a reason for it."-Shannon Sharpe
I don't think the runnning was bad.
I fact, it is pretty impressive that we kept an average of 4.8 yards per attempt even when the opposite team knew we were gonna run the ball. We ahve a very young offensive squad and I think we will see a lot of progress with very little change. That said, I would still like to see a big RB taken in later rounds or FA for short yardage. Other then that, as far as the offense is concerned, I believe a RT is the only need at offense that deserve a pick within the first 4 rounds. I like Franklin, but we need to move him inside.

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