FanPost

Using Tebow effectively against the Steelers.

There have been a lot of posts talking about Tebow and his passing. Everyone has an opinion, varying from playing Quinn instead to letting Tebow open up the playbook. I'm interested in focusing on what Tebow has done well and what he hasn't looking at his stats in different situations. We've had a lot of posts of varying arguments, but few have looked at it objectively, namely his actual passing record. We'll do that after the jump.

Passing in the first quarter. We run a hell of a lot. Fox wants to establish run early which entirely makes sense. The only problem is that we have endured a lot of 3 and outs in the process. This won't work against the Steelers, and didn't work for the most part during the regular season IMO. We are a running team, but even running teams establish a passing game in the first quarter, at least the successful ones. Take Houston and San Fran for example (the 2 other rushing playoff teams).

Rush

Attempts

Rush

TDs

Attempt/

TD's

Starts

Pass Att

1st Q/gm

Pass Att

2nd Q/g

Pass Att

3rd Q/gm

Pass Att

4th Q/gm

Den

546

11

50

Tebow

11

3.4

4.9

5.1

10.6

Hou

546

18

30

Schaub

10

8.9

8.6

5.2

6.5

SF

497

14

36

Smith

16

7.4

9

6.9

4.4

First of all notice we have a different play calling strategy (ok completely opposite) than Hou or SF. Take Houston for example. They run the exact same amount we do. But they start the game balanced and then run the ball in the second half. Same with SF. Both teams develop both sides of the offense. We simply don't. 3 throws in the first quarter isn't even trying to establish the pass IMO. The detractors will say " but Tebow isn't good enough to throw in the first Q". Prove it! Show me a game where we earnestly gave him a chance to develop a passing game in the first half? I'm talking about passing 15 -20 times in the first half like these other running teams. We haven't.

So what happens in the second half then? We go completely the other direction. Tebow throws almost twice as many passes in the 4th Q as Schaub and Smith. Someone might say, "But it's because he sucks so bad earlier in the game and we're behind." No shit Sherlock--he hasn't thrown enough passes to get into rhythm, and we haven't scored because we are one dimensional. Look at our rushing offense. Impressive until you look at attempts per TD. We need to run on average of 50 times to get one TD. That is not a winning stat, for sure not against Pittsburgh, because we could have 3 fumbles by that time. It hasn't worked against lessor opponents, it won't work in the playoffs.

Lesson: #1. We need to pass the ball early to have a chance at winning against Pittsburgh or we'll have to hope for ST and Defensive scoring miracles like the Jets game. We will know early on Sunday whether we're going the McCoy method or the Houston/SF method of winning games with a running team. We have an awesome run game that we largely squander, since scoring is mostly the point of football, not just racking up yardage.

First Q

Second Q

Third Q

Fourth Q

QB Rating Tebow

69.9

(3.4 att)

51.6

(4.9 att)

72.8

(5.1 att)

84.0

(10.6 att)

So when has Tebow been effective? His 4th Q rating is his best of any quarter, and it happens WHEN HE PASSES THE MOST! Get that? Like every other passer in the league, he needs to pass the ball to be an effective passer. That's why the argument that he isn't a good enough QB for McCoy to call more passing plays doesn't hold a thimble of water. (Detractors--show me where he performs better when passing less?!)

Now I am the first to admit that Tebow is a work in progress. In fact it's amazing we're in the playoffs with him in his first three fourths of a season starting. But here we are and we need to win so what has he been effective at? One answer is on lower pressure downs (makes sense eh?).

Situation

QB Rating

Comp %

Yards/Att (att)

TD

Int

1st Down & 8+

87.5

50%

7.9 (103)

6

2

2nd Down & <6

120.5

67%

5.6 (12)

2

0

3rd Down 8-10

113.5

52%

6.8 (25)

3

0

3rd Down 11+

65.5

61%

8.6 (18)

0

1

Wide Right

56.1

35%

5.5 (78)

3

2

Right

97.3

60%

5.4 (25)

3

1

Middle

109.4

66%

7.6 (32)

2

0

Left

90.1

57%

8.4 (47)

2

1

Wide Left

58.6

40%

5.9 (89)

2

2

Tebow has done pretty well with first down. He's very effective the few times he's had the chance to pass on 2nd and less than 6 (not an obvious passing situation). He's even done pretty well on 3rd and long. So why again do we run a draw play on 3rd down and long? He's only thrown 1 pick in that situation so it can't be that...

The bottom half of chart is looking where on the field he passes. Study it. He sucks going wide both directions, yet that's where he's gone the vast majority of the time. Is this because of play calling or not, I don't know, but it's fishy. I would call plays that focus on passing into the middle of the field because he's very accurate and effective in that situation. Too bad we rarely try (2-3 times a game on average). This is why arguments that McCoy is awesome don't make sense to me. Look up how Alex Smith is used. His poorest area is over the middle, so they rarely throw over the middle, and rather use his strengths. That isn't how Tebow has been used, and his stats show it.

Please comment below, but if you think I'm full of it, do some research on what other teams (successful ones) are doing in how they form their gameplan for their QBs. I maintain we don't maximize ours' skills, and will lose this week unless we do.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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