Keys to beating the Patriots

They’ve been working on their run-game, with rookie Nate Solder(77, from CO.) coming in as an extra tackle/power-TE. Pats loaded up to help the run-game after last year’s playoff elimination, when the Jets used lots of dime to take away Brady’s receiving options.

The smartest thing for the Patriots to do, is copy the same game plan as Buffalo, KC, and yes, the Steelers. Stack the box, and man-up in coverage. Make Tebow beat you with his arm. Otherwise, if you double team or play any kind of cover 2, we will be able to run easily, which is what we would prefer to do anyway. I dont think Tebow will be completely ineffective, but I doubt he will repeat last Sunday’s performance if put in a similar situation.

NE gets credit for playing good DEF, and solid technique and gang tackling certainly can cause fumbles… but recovering them is pretty much randomn (and we were decidely UNLUCKY in that you got all 3), and we certainly could’ve had better ball protection on those plays (which is what Teboner and I are advocating).

The ultimate point is that if DEN don’t give NE 3 turnovers and shortfields, killing our drives and 3 extra possessions that resulted in 17 points, the first game is a whole lot different. NE isn’t immune to fumbles either, and if we get a couple of those in the playoff game… again, the teams are not as far a part as the score from the first game indicates.

It comes on later in games (although I do recall you guys ran early and a lot against one team this year. I cant really remember. BJGE had a big game though) But in of itself, it isnt extremely effective. Where-as we are the opposite. Our passing game isnt really that effective. It is only as effective as our run game.

Looking forward to us actually getting to consistently run the ball the whole game this time around. If dont turn the ball over, I think we have a 50/50 shot of winning this game. But if we are negative in the turnover margin at all, we lose.

That will chew clock, leave opportunties for forcing fumbles, and keep everything low scoring (even if NE is effective). NE won’t put up a forty-berger with just their run game.

Giving up big pass plays/scores on the other hand, where DEN gets down a lot early…. surefire way for the game to get out of hand. DEN isn’t built to play from behind with a young QB and receiving corp.

Obviously its a bit of pick your poison, but I certainly like our chances of stopping the NE run game with our nickel/dime package more than I like our chances of stopping the passing game with a standard package.

The week 15 game against the Broncos went much like the other games the Patriots have won this season – N.E. falls behind, makes adjustments (mostly to their defense) as the game unfolds and goes on to victory. I was pretty certain the Pats would handle the Broncos but, I was interested to see just what Tebow could do. I came away from that game knowing that Tim Tebow has a lot of work to do before he’ll be a quality, pro-level quarterback. An NFL QB must… must… be able to complete more than 50% of his passes to stay in the league – I don’t gave a shit how good a runner he is. Running QB’s inevitably get hurt and so goes their career as a pro quarterback.

This said – I was very impressed with the way Tebow lead his team to victory over Pittsburgh (albeit a very beat up Steeler team). The Patriots aren’t beat up, the game’s at Gillette, Belichick is sick of losing playoff games and, Brady will play like a man possessed – no surprises this Saturday night.

if we don’t turn over the ball and give you short fields, particularly if we can get some long drives and limit you to only 6 or 7 total drives with our run game (like we have many teams).

if we need 38 points, we’ll lose 90+% of the time. If we need 28… we have a punchers chance.

our young safeties just had their best game of the year… hopefully that is a trend due to increased experience/game slowing down… if they play like they did in wk15… yep, you’re very likely to win.

Steelers had bad execution on a few plays. But the scheme was generally correct… don’t let DEN beat you on the ground. Once their D-line got banged up (where my guess is we would’ve run over even 8-man boxes), they had little choice but to go all-in vs. the run. And TT had one of his best games, where he basically hit on all of his deep throws… thats somewhat unlikely to happen again, simply because those are low-probaility plays against any DEF.

NE’s DEF isn’t as bad as its yards (many of which were garbage time late game gimme yards), nor is DEN’s as bad as its scoring performance (which is way skewed by blowouts vs. GB, DET, NET and BUF). You have a decent shot of stopping us with 8-in the box, but probably aren’t good enough to do it with 7 (really no one has yet)… if we can’t hit on some of the deep plays, you’ll likely win big.

DEN’s defense also played great against Pitt… a little help from the refs and a fumble by McGahee allowed Pitt back in it, but the combo of good DEF and TT hitting his big passes meant we basically dominated. It was by far the best game from our young DBs this year, and hopefully that improvement will carry over so Hernandez and friends don’t torch us again. NE matches up against our DEF better (short passing game is less conduscive to our passrush than a gimpy Rapist and deep threat receivers)… you basically dominated our young safeties with your receiver depth last time, and that well could happen again.

But just as getting healthy means you improved on DEF, our safeties have also seemingly improved with more experience. Will it be enough? Probably not unless TT is super-on again, but its not inconceivable either.

I would hardly characterize NE’s offense as being unable to score. And that ability to jump ahead creates “offensive panic” on the other side, creating TO opportunities for the NE defense—which they are very good at. Without those turnovers, they don’t win their last 3 games. What they are not good at is holding field possession, or getting off the field. You can get away with both during the regular season. Much harder to overcome that in the playoffs.

As for the Steelers “fundamental errors in the pass defense,” that is usually in part because of what the offense was doing. So give credit where credit is due. Polamalu got beat by a TE on a play called especially to take advantage of what makes him great. James Farrior said it himself, “We didn’t see that on tape.” That’s a good scheme executed well against a good defense. Not a bunch of fundamental errors.

The Patriots made some “fundamental errors” against good schemes in the first game (cost them 16 quick points), as did the Broncos. Question is always whether those cost you or not. Saturday we’ll find out.