Bronco Mike's Q2 Stats report: Games 5-8, Peyton Manning

Justin Edmonds

Hello MHR and Broncos Country---if you're jones-ing for some numbers, this is the right place to be!

Throughout the season I track a multitude of things both on offense and defense. This isn't anything from a premium stats site, these are just numbers of things I compile. Since I pour over game logs and play by plays to get this stuff, I have no doubt there are very small and miniscule mistakes here and there. Overall though, this will give you a very accurate representation of what has happened over the stretch of the last four games. So come with be and let's analyze how our Broncos have progressed/regressed from many different perspectives.

First I want to take a look at our play distribution and averages. Reading this table from left to right, 1st down, 2nd down, and 3rd down both running and passing.

Play distribution and yardage averages per down

Offense:

G 5-8

Run

Pass

Run

Pass

Run

Pass

Att

60

67

19

52

20

29

Yds

232

551

100

330

67

317

Avg/p

3.9

8.2

5.3

6.3

3.4

10.9

- Our passing averages on 1st and 3rd down are fantastic. More explosive plays here. From what I've noticed it is a bit lower on 2nd down because Manning tends to use 2nd down to make 3rd down more manageable (ie shorter routes to eat up distance).

- Folks gripe about how much runs are called on 1st down, but the virtual tie between the selection has provided some great play action opportunities that have yielded big plays to both Decker and DT.

- In comparison to games 1-4, our running average is down about half a yard on 1st down, but up more than a yard on 2nd and 3rd down. Our passing game is down almost two yards on 2nd down but up about 1.5 yards on 1st and 3 yards on 3rd down.

- Notice that there have been a total of 137 plays on 1st down yet only 49 on 3rd down (with a 3-2 split pass/run). This tells me the Broncos offense is facing more manageable 3rd downs.

Defense:

G 5-8

Run

Pass

Run

Pass

Run

Pass

Att

68

53

33

60

14

47

Yds

252

299

125

390

40

213

Avg/p

3.7

5.6

3.8

6.5

2.9

4.5

- In comparison to games 1-4, the Broncos defense is giving up a half yard more rushing the ball on 1st down. Much of this can be attributed to the horrible outing in the NE game. They improved slightly in games 5-8 on 2nd and 3rd down (less than half a yard).

- Where we see a marked improvement is in passing averages across the board. On 1st and 2nd down, the Broncos have been better by more than a yard. On 3rd down, they are allowing a staggering 3 yards less per pass play in comparison to games 1-4.

- The play distribution sees a good increase of running plays on 1st down (teams have tried to follow NE's example). The distribution on 3rd down is almost even with games 1-4. This team hasn't had a problem forcing unfavorable 3rd down situations for opposing teams, it just had some issues stopping them from converting. Let's go on and take a look at 3rd downs.

3rd down opportunities

Now, I've tweaked my system a bit based upon Jeremy Bolander's suggestion. Basically, Jeremy pointed out that percentages for converting 3rd down in the modern game are best shown in two major categories with 2 sub categories: 3rd downs that are favorable to offenses (and from that we get 3rd and 1-3 and 3rd and 4-6) and 3rd downs that are favorable to defenses (and from that we get 3rd and 7-11 and 3rd and 12+). I will include numbers from the first four games in order to present a linear comparison.

Offense

Games 1-4

Passing

1-3

4-6

7-11

12+

Overall

5/8

8/12

4/13

2/8

%

63%

67%

31%

25%

Rushing

1-3

4-6

7-11

12+

Overall

7/10

0/2

0/1

0/0

%

70%

0%

0%

0%

Games 5-8

Passing

1-3

4-6

7-11

12+

Overall

9/9

9/14

3/10

1/3

%

100%

64%

30%

33%

Rushing

1-3

4-6

7-11

12+

Overall

3/6

1/4

0/2

0/2

%

50%

25%

0%

0%

- Overall the Broncos offense went 26/54 in the first four games (48%), in games 5-8 they went 26/50 (52%). This isn't a big shift overall.

- What we do see is a 2-1 inclination to pass on 3rd and short (for those of you that think we run the ball too much on 3rd down eat your outrage haha!)

- Also, noticed that the Broncos have elected to rush the ball 6 times this year on 3rd and 4-6 and have only converted once---paging Peyton Manning stop checking into those they don't work. Besides, you're about 65% when you pass the ball.

- The biggest change from last quarter is that we have faced many less 3rd and longs (13 as opposed to 21) which means the team is more efficient on 1st and 2nd down (which is backed up by those averages we already looked at.

- Sizing up the two major categories (advantages for offense advantages for defense) the Broncos are 22-33 (67%) and 4/17 (24%) respectively with the pass being at a ridiculous 18/23 (78%) and the run being 4/10 (40%) in favorable situations.

- You may have noticed that the Broncos have missed exactly 6 times all season running the ball on 3rd and short (1-3). Here are the plays, running backs, and when they occurred just in case you might be blaming one back more than another:

Ronnie Hillman 3rd and 1 no gain (NE)

Ronnie Hillman 3rd and 2 no gain (NO)

Willis McGahee 3rd and 1 loss (SD)

Willis McGahee 3rd and 1 loss (PIT)

Willis McGahee 3rd and 2 no gain (ATL)

Willis McGahee 3rd and 1 no gain (ATL)

As you can see, failures here are more indicative of our line not getting enough push rather than effort or vision on the part of the running back----McGahee is the hardest runner on our team and if he's struggling, it isn't there.

Defense

Games 1-4

Passing

1-3

4-6

7-11

12+

Overall

6/11

5/9

6/10

10/13

%

54%

55%

60%

77%

Rushing

1-3

4-6

7-11

12+

Overall

5/8

0/1

1/2

0/0

%

63%

0%

50%

0%

Games 5-8

Passing

1-3

4-6

7-11

12+

Overall

5/8

8/12

14/19

6/9

%

63%

67%

73%

67%

Rushing

1-3

4-6

7-11

12+

Overall

2/8

0/0

0/0

1/2

%

25%

0%

0%

50%

*edited, thanks to DE_BroncoFan for helping me see I was looking at the incorrectly

- The Broncos D has improved in just about every area except stopping rushes on 3rd and short allowing offenses to convert 75% of the time in games 5-8.

- Where they have really stepped up their game has been in passing situations on 3rd and short and 4-6, stopping opposing offenses 13/20 times (65%)---Remember our offense is converting these at 65%---opposing offenses are at 35%.

Directional Running

This next set of numbers has to do with our running game by direction (either left, middle, right). Just remember that this does not differentiate between outside and inside running, just direction. In other words whether it is off left guard (inside) or left tackle (outside), it will grouped the same.

Games 5-8

Left

Middle

Right

ATT

30

38

36

YDS

103

154

171

AVG

3.4

4.1

4.8

- Overall the numbers are up on the left side from games 1-4 (more than half a yard), down in the middle (about half a yard), and down slightly to the right (less than half a yard).

- Selection remains relatively the same from games 1-4 when the Broncos ran to the left/middle/right 32, 38, and 36 times respectively.

Three and outs and Redzone

Offense

- In the first four games, the offense had 12 three and outs. In games 5-8 they had 9 three and outs.

- In the first four games, the offense had 12 redzone scoring opportunities converting all of them for scores (100%). They scored 9 TD's from those opportunities (75%).

- In games 5-8, the offense had 15 redzone scoring opportunities converting 13 of them for scores (87%). (The DT fumble against NE and the PM pick against the Bengals were failed opportunities). 11 of them were converted for TD's ( 73%).

Defense

- In the first four games, the defense forced 14 three and outs. In games 5-8 they forced 14 three and outs.

- In the first four games, the defense faced 13 redzone scoring opportunities allowing scores on all of them (100%) and TD's on 7 (53%).

- In games 5-8, the defense faced 13 redzone scoring opportunities allowing scores on all of them (100%) and TD's on 9 of them (69%).

- A slight uptick on TD's and opportunities on offense essentially cancelled the 2 TD's more the Broncos D allowed....not to mention that one of those is a garbage time TD against the Saints.

Scoring by period

offense

1st Q

2nd Q

3rd Q

4th Q

Total

15

20

28

51

114 (28.5)

10

24

35

52

121 (30.3)

- The top row is games 1-4, the bottom row is games 5-8. Notice the Broncos have scored 164 of their 235 points in the 2nd half.

- Pretty even when comparing games 1-4 and games 5-8

defense

1st Q

2nd Q

3rd Q

4th Q

Total

20

37

20

6

83 (20.8)

17

34

24

17

92 (23)

- Broncos D has allowed more points in games 5-8 than 1-4.

- Allowed 108 points in the first half when compared to 67 in the 2nd half.

- Broncos in total have outscored opponents 103-23 points in 4th period. 4th period scoring accounts for 44% of all their points.

Peyton Manning Q2 report card, stats by period

Let me start off by presenting the contrast from Q1-Q2

Games 1-4

99/153 (64.7%), 1162 Yards (7.6 YPA), 8TD/3INT, 96.9 QBR

Games 5-8

104/139 (74.8%), 1242 Yards (8.9 YPA), 12TD/3INT, 121.4 QBR

- Just an unbelievable improvement in both accuracy and yards per attempt!

If you wondered what his stats look like in total in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th quarter of games, here it is:

Quarter

Comp

Att

%

YDS

AVG/A

TD

INT

QB Rating

1Q

52

75

70%

547

7.3

1

3

78.0

2Q

51

72

90%

645

8.9

4

1

111.0

1st Half

103

147

70%

1192

8.1

5

4

94.3

3Q

47

67

67%

615

9.2

6

2

116.2

4Q

53

78

100%

597

7.7

9

0

129.1

2nd Half

100

145

69%

1212

8.4

15

2

123.1

We all knew the guy was good in the 2nd half and 4th Q of games, but to see that 75% of his TD's have come during this time reinforces it on a whole different level. The problem overall has been slow starts as evidenced by only 1 TD thrown during the 1st Q of a game.

Bronco Mike grades Peyton Manning game by game, period by period

Now, some of you had a heart-attack last time thinking I was too harsh. Remember, this is completely subjective and for fun;)

Pats

Comp

Att

%

YDS

AVG/A

TD

INT

Grade

1Q

10

12

83

118

9.8

0

0

4.0

2Q

3

6

50

11

1.8

1

0

3.0

3Q

8

10

80

93

9.3

1

0

4.0

4Q

10

16

63

115

7.2

1

0

4.0

Totals

31

44

70%

337

7.7

3

0

15.0 A

Chargers

Comp

Att

%

YDS

AVG/A

TD

INT

Grade

1Q

3

4

75

17

4.3

0

0

4.0

2Q

8

12

67

136

11.3

0

1

4.0

3Q

7

7

100

92

9.3

1

0

4.0

4Q

6

7

85

64

9.1

2

0

4.0

Totals

24

30

80

309

10.3

3

1

16.0 A

Saints

Comp

Att

%

YDS

AVG/A

TD

INT

Grade

1Q

4

7

57

66

9.4

0

0

3.0

2Q

7

9

77

113

12.6

1

0

4.0

3Q

7

8

88

91

11.4

1

0

4.0

4Q

4

6

67

35

5.8

1

0

4.0

Totals

22

30

73

305

10.2

3

0

15.0 A

Bengals

Comp

Att

%

YDS

AVG/A

TD

INT

Grade

1Q

6

9

70

48

5.9

0

0

4.0

2Q

9

11

90

102

9.3

1

0

4.0

3Q

6

9

67

72

8.0

0

2

0.0

4Q

6

6

100

69

11.5

2

0

4.0

Totals

27

35

77

291

8.3

3

2

12.0B

G 5-8

104

139

74.8%

1242

8.9

12

3

58/64 3.63A

- Peyton Manning earns an A from Bronco brings his overall GPA up to 3.3;)

Final Thoughts

There's enough here to keep you happy for a while Broncos Country! Overall I see a lot symmetry from games 1-4 to games 5-8. If you have questions and comments fire away, cheers!

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