Pre-Free Agency Thoughts

I don’t entirely agree with everything, but you make a very reasonable case for it all. Rec’d.

You know our team very well, and you’re knowledgeable about the draft. That leads to a good evaluation! I agree with you on most of your points. The one I would differ on is the QB spot. I don’t think Denver needs to sign or draft a young QB behind Tebow. A player like Gerrard, who is mobile and a veteran, fits the bill for me.

I’d love to see Tatupu playing for the Broncos. If he is 90% of what he was before the injury (3 time pro-bowl, 1 time All-Pro) then he would be a great value signing. I think Philly is going to throw a lot of money at him though.

I agree with what you say just not the names you throw out. IMO the areas we will look to FA is the areas we lose our own vets at. For instance, as you said also, if Dawkins can’t return we will be looking to replace him with a FA. I think Hochstein is also to old to re-sign and we will replace him. Goodman has seen better days and has dropped off considerably. We can replace him with about the same money in FA too. Backup QB could be OK if we re-sign Quinn. MLB has everyione up in arms, but in reality we’re fine depending on who we lose in FA. If Irving isn’t ready we play DJ at MLB. I also agree that Bunkley will be a hard sign. He will demand at least 5 mil/yr. That’s pretty steep. Thomas is abou the same player Bunkley is. One will leave I think. RB will be a draft pick. Thanks for the thoughts.

Mason Foster (3rd rnd) started 15 games for the Bucs, who had the worst overall defense in the NFL last season.
Colin McCarthy (4th rnd) started 7 games for the Titans out of necessity because of injuries. The Titans D was ranked 8th overall in 2011.
Casey Matthews (5th rnd) ended up starting 3 games for the Eagles who finished the season with the 10th ranked D.

Going back to 2010 you find zero rookies who made starts at MLB. I didn’t check 2009.

It can happen, but it seems rare for a rookie drafted after the first two rounds to start at Mike.

in my eyes, RB is the #4 need behind Defensive Tackle, Cornerback and Linebacker.

Mine too, but I wouldn’t discount the depth at DE in this draft (not that you have). I think the odds of the Broncos picking one early. are good.

As far as FA’s I think with 50 or so million, not saying that there going to spend it all, I think we can go out and get atleast 1 big name guy; Carr, Tolbert, maybe Garcon, or Ginn Jr. Not #1 guys but guys that can be a good #2 on our team for #2 money. Carr might want #1 money, but he has #2 talent.

What do you think of resigning Eddie Royal? I would like to keep him, but Washington could be on the top of his list of teams to join.

I think we’ll go after a few big names, we were finalist for DeAngelo, Connected to Charles Johnson, Mebane and a few others. Now we’re 50+ million under the cap, we could go after 1 or 2 impact FA’s. I think we’ll get more mid level guys, but wouldnt surprise me to see us connected to a top FA at DT or CB

I’d rather get someone else over Lofa, there’s a reason teams passed him up. If healthy sure, but how much milage do those knee’s have?

Middleton is a guy who i think we get, he did pretty well this year, Del Rio knows him, he’s young.

I agree with you on the Draft, doubt we go MLB or TE in the 1st, you know how i feel about RB in the 1st

I think we’ll get a more traditional back-up. I know everyone thinks we’ll go with a mobile QB like Johnson, or Dixon but i doubt it. They won’t be able to run the offense Tebow does. The zone read works because of Tebow’s threat to run. Yeah those guys can run, but won’t survive. A veteran QB like Garrard

Always, quality posts Nick, thanks.

I just have two thoughts at this point but hope to revisit this post to ponder on a deeper level. One, I’m not saying Walton needs to be replaced but there is this nagging sense that he cannot physically stand up to the bigger stronger D lines that shredded us this past year. In other words, the jury is still out for both him and Beadles. Secondly, I’m still trying to process this whole idea of BPA. I’m leaning towards acquiring elite talent whenever it presents itself, of course that definition is up to EFX and subject to misperception on their part). I could see us taking Konz at center in the 1st round IF they see him as an elite player but the same could be said for any other position if one let’s go of drafting for need. I could also see us signing a FA that fits this profile given his attitude fits as well as the physical talents. Ultimately, I’m saying when there is a chance to grab elite talent do so regardless of need.

a serving of the blind homerism, and a side of the wild speculation please. And lastly, I would like a hot steamy cup of optimism…thank you.

I’m not sure I agree RB is #4. I would put it CB #1, RB #2, DT #3 and MLB #4.

Especially about the tight ends. I have given up on trying to explain why the Broncos won’t take a TE over at Mocking The Draft.

And I agree with you on no MLB and RB in the first. Hearing from Andrew Mason that the Broncos believe in Irving was very good to hear, and it makes me hope that he can still be a long term answer but were a long way away from finding that out (although for rosterbaters like myself, it’s nice to think about him being the guy moving forward and MLB not being such a big question mark). I love Lamar Miller but he’s just not worth it in the first.

Here’s the thing with Nate Irving… you are more than likely right. MLB’s have the most responsibility of any player in the defense. The lockout really screwed Irving, Rahim Moore, both our young TE’s, and almost any inexperienced player.

Having said that… by way of Josh McDaniels / Matt Russell, we have the Patriots draft method (ATL and KC follow the same methods). We follow the BPA formula, and it doesn’t really matter what we need or don’t need… we draft talent. Nate Irving was a 3rd round pick…. MANY 3rd round picks become nothing more than depth. Of course EFX is going to say the correct things regarding Nate, or any rookie. They are going to say X player is going to return our team to greatness. They are drafted to bring this team back to glory days. BUT…. there’s no guarantee with any of them.

If EFX sees a MLB in the 1st, or any round for that matter, that they feel will upgrade the talent level, and that player is the best player available to their scheme, then make no bones about it, that player WILL be drafted. Marcell Dareus looked to be a MUCH bigger need than a pass rusher last draft, but that didn’t stop EFX from nabbing a superior talent. Nate Irving was a 3rd rounder…. we needed depth and a starter there…. if they feel he can be upgraded, they’ll pull that trigger without hesitation.

But you are more than likely right…. he was redshirted, and will contribute much more this coming year.

RBs ~ DEs ~ OTs ~ and CBs are Fox’s game for 1st round picks.

I would be sorely surprised if he drafted anything other than one of those in the first. At #25 taking a RB and missing on him is a big concern because he handles the ball and get’s hit a lot more than most other positions. But at 25 the cost is much lower than say Moreno at 12 so it wouldn’t hurt near as bad if he went sour. Nobody likes a first round bust though, and that’s hard to swallow sometimes. Since Monte Ball going going back to finish his senior year I hope we pass on RB in the 1st unless Fox falls in love with Lamar Miller…

I think we are pretty set at OT with Clady, Franklin, R Harris and Clark…Plus the unkown Adam Grant and Tony Hills, so I don’t see us making that position a first round need.

Definitely could use a young cornerback to develop behind Champ and Goodman, but if he isn’t at least 5’11 190lbs forget about it. I do believe we will address the position somewhere down the line in the draft though and there are some pretty good 2-3 rd prospects that could develop into something good. Damn you Perrish Cox! Three and possible more could be there in the 2nd rd ~ Minnifield, Trumain Johnson and Josh Norman. Maybe one of these players will be our pick…

Defensive End isn’t a huge need if Fox considers Jason Hunter, Derrick Harvey or Jeremy Beal behind Ayers and Dumervil, but if the timing is right and Mellvin Ingram is still on the board they will jump and run to the podium with the pick. There are a feww in the following rounds I wouldn’t mind taking if we draft someone else. Cam Johnson, Vinnie Curry etc…

With our pick being 780 points worth I think EFX wouldn’t be bad off if they picked Ryan Tannenhill at 25 if he’s still there. Let him develop behind Tebow like Aaron Rodgers did behind Brett Farve and if Tebow’s production hit’s a below par ceiling then we have our man.

With all of that said, I wouldn’t mind EFX dealing out of the first rd down to an early 2nd, get another pick plus get DT/DE/CB we need…Drafting a DT in the 2nd could kepp Fox’s string of 10 years not drafting one in the first…

Your guess is as good as mine.

I vote no on signing any CB that reminds me of Willie Middlebrooks.

Just think our real major need is at CB and you gave no enough level to discuss this. I agree about the part you say after resigning Bunkley and Thomas (and Ty Warren returning), this is not our major need anymore… I think that’s exactly why we should (and likely will) grab a 1st round CB.

The free agents you listed are bottom of the barrell, fringe NFL roster type of guys that would be, to me, like getting Marquand Manuel all over again. Lofa Tatupu couldn’t even get signed by a team this past year, and would be a longshot to make our roster even. Upgrade over Joe Mays even?

Middleton is the most encouraging name on your non-QBs list, but still not inspiring since we have three guys like him already on the roster (Thompson, Vaughn, Harris). The Broncos have roughly 50 million in cap space. Who we will pursue and who we will sign are two different arguments entirely. For instance, we pursued DeAngelo Williams last year, likely didn’t offer him close to what the Panthers did, but we still went after him. It’s not like we have a ton of big name in-house guys to re-sign, the best of which being our kicker.

I can see where you’re coming from, and you typically look at it as “glass half empty” but I tend to agree that the Broncos aren’t going to take a page out of anyone’s Madden 12 guide to building a franchise and sign all of the best, youngest free agents. I think most of our acquisitions will be of the bargain variety but that doesn’t mean we should ignore guys like Mario Williams, Brandon Carr, Matt Forte, Vincent Jackson, or Dwayne Bowe just because we want to build through the draft. The Broncos are not in a hurry to be contenders but they have to see how lucky we were to win 8 games last year and how maintaining team chemistry while adding important pieces is huge.

For instance, we’re probably not going to get a corner at 25 overall who is going to give us what Brandon Carr can potentially give us, which is a seamless transition for Champ to move to safety and build at corner. More likely, he would bridge the gap at #1 corner and allow another draft choice to be the future #2.

Adding pieces through free agency doesn’t equal wins, but I doubt Houston regrets dipping into their pocket books for a guy like Jonathan Joseph, who helped make them the most dominant D, arguably, in the AFC.

Not sure Chicago regrets picking up Julius Peppers and getting to the NFC title game.

The Broncos have a plan in place, but it shouldn’t require only going after the worst free agents, which is the plan that you have laid out in my opinion.

Lofa Tatupu? Really? Wow! I still remember everyone saying how Niko Koutuvides was going to be our next great MLB, and lo and behold I see him pullin ST duty in the Super Bowl. I give you props for pulling out Lofa, I forgot about the guy. He actually is visiting the Saints right now, which I’m not sure how he would fit in with Vilma, but I think your suggestion has merit. MLB, CB, and DT are positions of need, probably more based on BPA than anything else. However, I do agree that EFX could grab a pass rushing beast at DE if they feel one is BPA with 1st pick.

This topic has been a joy to read.

Great OP, great comments, all respectful and smart. This is why i love reading MHR.

Now back to figuring out why my cash flow sucks…

I was near outrage when they drafted him, but I think you’re being a little hard on him. He needs to work to get functionally stronger, but the guy is a beast on the move and he showed some serious vinegar as the season wore on. He’s going to continue to develop, and he’ll be considered an asset before all is said and done.

I think Denver will make one big FA acquisition. I’m thinking Grimes, Carr or Lynch. Probably Carr— he upgrades the secondary significantly and weakens the other AFC riser all in the same motion. I think they have an interest in proving that Bowlen is willing to try to win, as once was a forgone conclusion.

Yes they may select him but IMO trade down better.
Washington – If they miss out on Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, Robert Griffin, they’ll have to either trade down from No. 6 or move up from no. 38 to acquire Ryan Tannehill.
Jacksonville – at no. 7 do they take BPA or focus on Gabbert shortcomings. Same question at no. 39.
Miami – at no. 8 do they have Manning, Flynn or a plan for no. 42
Philadelphia – It’s very possible that the Eagles will spend a Day 2 selection on a quarterback. Their current starter will be 32 soon, while Mike Kafka is just backup material.
New York – the front office may spend a Day 2 selection on a quarterback to provide some competition.
Denver then can select the following, with the Round & Time
*Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina Jr 6-1 193 2 4.52
*Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State Jr 6-7 240 2-3 4.83
*Bernard Pierce RB Temple Jr 6-0 218 3 4.59
*Marcus Forston DT Miami (Fla.) rJr 6-3 300 2-3 4.95

History is generally the best indicator of future events. I think it’s wise to look at the past as predictor of future, but with just one year with Elway and Fox at the helm, I think it should come with a warning this time. The sample size is enormously small.

Most importantly, I think there was one major fact that affected all signings last year and served as a guide to our offseason….. we were cash-poor. We were paying much money to players that were no longer playing. Dumervil and Kuper were signed to a big contract the year prior without any bonuses, which meant that their 2011 salaries were each millions of dollars higher. Tim Tebow’s major signing bonuses (not to mention a big play-time bonus) was deferred to 2012 and made over $7M that year total. DT was the other 2011 1st round draft choice with his signing bonus delayed to 2012. We also ended up paying Orton for most of the season. We released Bannan and J-Wall with them still being owed guaranteed money. Jharivs Green was still being paid. The list goes on.

POint is that tthe 2011 regime put the 2012 regime in a crappy position as far as actual cash being spent. That greatly affected how the Broncos were forced to approach free agent acquisitions. Specifically, of all the free agent signings only Warren and McGahee were given signing bonuses. They’re also the only two that got multi-year deals. The reason is clear, IMO…. the team simply didn’t have the cash to spend. The cash budget is set at around what the cap budget is set at, and the team was simply strapped on the cash side.

So I guess what I’m saying is that I see very clear reasons to point at as to why the team approached last year’s FAs the way they did. And I see no reason to believe that last year’s trend will continue. We’re not cash strapped this year. I could see us making moves in FA that go completely against last year’s model.

Personally, I’d like to see a RB be a major FA addition. For $5M per year in FA you can add a star RB to be our starter/time share back with McGahee. You can then spend your first-round pick on a CB that would have cost you $10M/yr in FA.