2012 Combine - Using the Production Ratio to Find Linebackers for the Broncos

by KaptainKirk on Feb 20, 2012 10:00 AM MST in 2012 Denver Broncos Offseason

During the offseason last year, I wrote a piece using the Production Ratio from Pat Kirwan's book, "Take Your Eye Off the Ball." The Production Ratio is used to measure the playmaking potential for the Front 7 players on Defense coming out of college. There are many aspects to scouting -- Character, Work ethic, Intelligence, Football instincts, Competitiveness and Developmental upside to name a few, but this formula can be used to narrow down the players to focus on during the National Scouting Combine that will be held this week in Indianapolis.

The formula goes like this:

(SACKS + TACKLES FOR LOSS)/NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED = PRODUCTION RATIO

What we are looking for someone who scores a 1.0 or better. As a point of reference, other players drafted by the Broncos last year, Nate Irving and Mike Mohamed, had scores of 1.4 and .54 respectively. 7th round pick Jeremy Beal had a 1.62 score and we will see if he can transition from Linebacker to Defensive End.

With special thanks and a Mile High Salute to Lars (One.Cool.Customer) over at Blogging the Boys for this next table and living up to his handle, here's a look at the 2011 standout OLB rookies and their college Production Ratio:

			NFL	College Production
Draft Round / Pick	Player	Team	Sacks 2011	Sacks	TFL	Games	Production Ratio
Round: 1 / Pick: 7	Aldon Smith	SF	14	17	29	23	2.00
Round: 1 / Pick: 2	Von Miller	DEN	11.5	33	50.5	47	1.78
Round: 1 / Pick: 16	Ryan Kerrigan	WAS	7.5	37.5	55.5	48	1.94
Round: 2 / Pick: 43	Brooks Reed	HOU	6	17	25	46	0.91
Round: 3 / Pick: 70	Justin Houston	KC	5.5	20	38	36	1.61
Round: 2 / Pick: 39	Akeem Ayers	TEN	2	14	29.5	37	1.18

I took the latest speculated placements from CBS Draft Rankings. No doubt the spots are fluid, since the draft is still three months away, but we have to begin somewhere. Here are the projected Outside Linebackers and how they rate.

Note: Players with an asterisk are Juniors declaring for the draft and Adrian Robinson was not invited to the Combine.

OVR	Name	School	Hgt	Wgt	40 Tm	Sks	TFL	Gm	P. Ratio	TTKL	PD	INT
109	Bruce Irvin (DE)	West Virginia	6'2"	245	4.50	22.5	29.0	25	2.06	61	1	0
61	*Jonathan Massaquoi (DE)	Troy	6'3"	250	4.66	19.5	31.0	25	2.02	125	0	0
38	LaVonte David	Nebraska	6'1"	225	4.62	11.5	28.0	27	1.46	285	12	2
285	Miles Burris	San Diego St.	6'2"	235	4.73	19.0	47.0	50	1.32	235	1	0
154	Kyle Wilber	Wake Forest	6'4"	249	4.70	13.5	35.5	43	1.14	195	6	0
257	Adrian Robinson	Temple	6'1"	250	4.73	22.5	33.5	50	1.12	156	4	2
64	Shea McClellin (DE)	Boise St.	6'3"	248	4.74	19.5	32.0	49	1.05	129	0	0
113	*Terrell Manning	N. Carolina St.	6'3"	225	4.63	10.0	27.5	36	1.04	193	9	5
148	Brandon Lindsey (DE)	Pittsburgh	6'2"	255	4.68	22.5	23.5	45	1.02	112	3	1
167	Emmanuel Acho	Texas	6'2"	245	4.79	8.5	39.0	48	0.99	262	9	2
20	Courtney Upshaw	Alabama	6'2"	265	4.76	16.0	35.5	53	0.97	140	4	1
213	Darius Fleming	Notre Dame	6'2"	255	4.65	15.5	32.5	50	0.96	158	7	2
53	*Ronnell (Travis) Lewis	Oklahoma	6'2"	244	4.63	10.0	28.5	34	0.90	118	0	0
363	Brandon Marshall	Nevada	6'1"	245	4.76	6.0	33.5	52	0.76	359	16	3
210	Danny Trevathan	Kentucky	6'0"	232	4.68	5.0	31.5	51	0.72	372	7	4
293	Tahir Whitehead	Temple	6'1"	228	4.70	7.0	22.5	50	0.65	163	5	1
233	Tank Carder	TCU	6'2"	236	4.67	5.5	25.0	50	0.61	228	19	4
266	Demario Davis	Arkansas St.	6'2"	232	4.60	7.0	22.5	48	0.61	230	7	4
95	Nigel Bradham	Florida St.	6'2"	249	4.67	9.0	21.5	53	0.57	306	11	3
132	Keenan Robinson	Texas	6'3"	240	4.68	5.5	22.5	51	0.55	297	10	2
33	Zach Brown	No. Carolina	6'2"	230	4.45	5.5	19.0	47	0.52	230	4	7
86	Josh Kaddu	Oregon	6'3"	235	4.65	3.5	10.0	26	0.52	58	2	0
383	Ryan Baker	LSU	6'0"	236	4.77	9.5	13.5	50	0.50	174	2	0
426	Steven Johnson	Kansas	6'1"	241	3.76	3.0	11.5	35	0.41	229	5	1
478	Nathan Stupar	Penn St.	6'1"	239	4.77	5.0	14.5	52	0.38	205	10	4
194	Tyler Nielsen	Iowa	6'3"	235	4.54	1.0	8.5	44	0.22	134	5	1

You have probably noticed that there are 4 players in this chart designated as Defensive Ends. You will find them listed at that position during the Combine also. I believe their size projects them as pass rushing Linebackers. Of course I could be mistaken, but let's just say the jury is still out. Still, there will likely be about 10-12 Defensive Ends, who when they finish working out with the rest of their position group, will go do some work with the Linebacker coaches and run 4 or 5 drills at the Combine. Also of note is that Bruce Irvin and Jonathan Massaquoi are both JUCO (Junior College) transfers. Irvin spent two seasons at West Virginia and Massaquoi has two years with Troy.

Here are the Inside Linebackers and how they rate.

Note: Jerry Franklin, Adrien Cole, D.J. Holt and Chris Marve were not invited to the Combine.

OVR	Player	School	Hgt	Wgt	40Tm	Sk	TFL	Gm	P.Ratio	TTKL	TPG	PD	INT
253	Shawn Loiseau	Merrimack	6'0"	241	4.68	11.0	36.5	38	1.25	382	10.05	2	1
57	Sean Spence	Miami	5'11"	224	4.58	10.5	47.0	47	1.22	318	6.76	12	1
16	*Luke Kuechly	Boston College	6'2"	237	4.80	2.5	33.5	38	1.00	532	14.0	10	7
150	Mychal Kendricks	California	5'11"	240	4.72	13.5	36.5	51	0.98	258	5.06	7	4
318	Chris Marve	Vanderbilt	6'0"	242	4.86	10.0	36.0	49	0.94	397	8.10	5	1
115	Audie Cole	N.C. State	6'4"	239	4.84	14.0	32.0	51	0.90	276	7.46	8	1
131	James-Michael Johnson	Nevada	6'2"	240	4.68	7.5	37.5	54	0.83	295	5.46	11	3
88	*Vontaze Burflict	Arizona St.	6'3"	250	4.67	7.0	22.5	37	0.80	228	6.16	11	1
176	Jerry Franklin	Arkansas	6'1"	241	4.60	10.0	31.0	51	0.80	369	7.24	14	5
244	Adrien Cole	Louisiana Tech	5'11"	250	4.78	6.0	27.0	43	0.77	324	7.53	6	1
46	Bobby Wagner	Utah St.	6'0"	232	4.69	4.5	29.5	48	0.71	466	9.29	9	4
298	D.J. Holt	California	6'0"	242	4.84	5.0	28.0	50	0.66	218	4.36	8	0
30	*Dont'a Hightower	Alabama	6'4"	260	4.78	5.0	21.0	44	0.59	235	5.34	7	1
269	Najae Goode	West Virginia	6'0"	245	4.76	8.0	22.5	52	0.59	157	3.02	7	2
370	Caleb McSurdy	Montana	6'1"	251	4.83	4.5	17.0	56	0.38	293	5.23	6	3
191	Chris Galippo	USC	6'2"	250	4.74	1.5	15.5	51	0.33	166	3.25	12	5

This does not take into account whether these players come from a 3-4 or a 4-3 system, but a Middle Linebacker in a 4-3 needs to be primarily a Tackling machine. If he can accumulate Sacks and Tackles For a Loss, it's a bonus. Luke Kuechly's production numbers show why he is the top ranking Linebacker this year.

A few things to keep in mind here are that John Fox's ideal Linebacker will be around 6-1 to 6-2 in height and weigh about 235 to 245 pounds. And the faster the better, but the player also had to have outstanding instincts

75% of all Linebackers from 1994-2003 who made at least 56 starts in their first five seasons, were drafted in the top ten spots. From 11-20, that number drops to 63.6%. Picks 21-50 drop to a 48.4% rate. 51-80, 30.2% and 81-120, 15%. This does not mean they had success, an impact or outstanding Pro Bowl seasons, merely that percentage of return (in playing time) for their draft position.

The Broncos first three picks are the 25th, 57th and ~88-89th in the 2012 NFL Draft. As things stand from this point, Sean Spence looks pretty attractive with that 2nd pick. I like Bobby Wagner's production too. His Production Ratio number isn't the highest, but he is quick and racks up Tackles. James Laurenaitis had similar numbers a few years back, though he went to Ohio State. He has averaged over 100 Tackles all 3 years he's been in the league and that's the kind of guy I'd like playing the MIKE. However, this is just the first step of the journey. We can revisit this next week after the Combine, along with a new set of numbers. So stay tuned.

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Comments

Excellent write.

I love Sean Spence but i wonder if he could hold up at the point if attack at the nfl level. He almost looks to have the build of a SS.

by swg777 on Feb 20, 2012 10:19 AM MST reply actions

BRUUUUUCE!!!!

My boy from the mountains is a BEEEEAST!!! I’d love to see him come to us in the 3rd or so, and be that pass rush specialist we so desperately need. He has been compared to a young Lawrence Taylor, and even though I doubt he will ever be THAT good (who is), he does have many comparable qualities.

"If you went to the Fair with this guy and you played that game where you have to throw the ball through the hole..... he may never get it through the hole, but he's still gonna be walking away with all the stuffed animals!" Prime's commentary on our very own Tim Tebow!!!

"As iron sharpens iron, so will one man sharpen another." The Bible, by way of Tim Tebow.

"If I had to choose between an abundance of football intelligence, or football wisdom, I'd choose wisdom every single time...... John Fox has enough football wisdom to be carried in a dump truck." Me!

by PaleHorse78 on Feb 20, 2012 10:26 AM MST reply actions 1 recs

I like him I just seriously have concerns about him holding up against the run. The colts have 2 small DEs and they struggle against the run quite often.

Or would you have him as a WLB?

Tim Tebow wears 3WM and drinks Tuscan whole milk.

by BroncoMath101 on Feb 20, 2012 12:39 PM MST up reply actions

why is he ranked 109 with that many sacks? WHat are his red flags?

by alkatraz76 on Feb 20, 2012 2:48 PM MST up reply actions

maybe because his division one playing time has only been 2 years

too small a sample perhaps?

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
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by KaptainKirk on Feb 20, 2012 3:53 PM MST up reply actions

Nice article Kirk

My favourite linebacker no scratch that football player in the whole draft is Lavonte David. Good production ratio, tackles well and contributes in coverage.

"The Holy Writ of Gloucester Rugby Club demands: first, that the forwards shall win the ball; second, that the forwards shall keep the ball; and third, the backs shall buy the beer." - Doug Ibbotson

by SteveUK on Feb 20, 2012 10:34 AM MST reply actions

He is an interesting prospect.

I think EFX will draft a linebacker somewhere in the draft after the first round.

"You hate to think you have to censor your language to meet other people's lack of understanding" -Julian Bond
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by bfree2bronc on Feb 20, 2012 11:06 AM MST up reply actions

Question...

The production ratio is certainly interesting, but it really has limits as it focuses on “big plays” in the backfield.

Are there any statistics that measure the yards gained per play when the LB makes the tackle (separated for passes and runs)?

For example, let’s say DJ Williams has 5 tackles on rushes in a game. The yards gained were -1, 1, 2, 4, and 7. His YPT (yards per tackle) for runs would be 2.6.

by Tezcatlipoca on Feb 20, 2012 10:50 AM MST reply actions

I'm not sure if anyone has done a study like that.

If anyone knows, it would likely be Topher. That would be a pretty big undertaking.
Like I was saying, this is mostly to look and see who you should take a closer look at or keep an eye on. And you are tright, it is limited to a small facet of the whole evaluation process.

by KaptainKirk on Feb 20, 2012 11:19 AM MST up reply actions

I haven't seen a stuy like that either,

But I’d consider this little tidbit from Brian Burke, from an article titled ‘Passing=Winning’:

If I were advising a general manager, I’d tell him to largely forget about the run. Get a RB who’s good at picking up blitzes or catching the ball. Never draft a RB in the first few rounds, and whatever you do, don’t waste precious cap space (or payroll budget) on him. Get a quality QB at all costs.

Assess your linemen on how well they pass block, and don’t worry as much about their run blocking. Get lots of pass rushers on defense. Got a LB that’s a great run stopper but can’t play coverage? Trade him to some sucker team that cares that they only give up 3.8 yards per carry rather than 4.2 yards per carry. That’s how you build a perennial playoff contender.

by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 20, 2012 1:11 PM MST up reply actions

That's a great idea

I’d have to look into it, the tough thing would be trying to apply missed tackles to the formula, since a number of top run stoppers in the league are boom-or-bust when it comes to tackles, it’s either way back or it’s a missed tackles.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Feb 21, 2012 7:39 AM MST up reply actions

I would question EFX taking a Sean Spence in the 2nd at 224lbs.

There are some possibilities at ILB from the 2nd rd on down. Cal’s Mychal Kendricks is an interesting prospect. Audie Cole is the player I hope we draft on the 3rd, he has too many tools to pass up imo…

"You hate to think you have to censor your language to meet other people's lack of understanding" -Julian Bond
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by bfree2bronc on Feb 20, 2012 11:03 AM MST reply actions

Yes, it all depends on where these guys are at when the Broncos are on the clock

If they have a number one ranked player at any position at #25, they will pull the trigger. I still have hope for Nate Irving though. His P. Ratio was too good to think he won’t show better than he has so far.

by KaptainKirk on Feb 20, 2012 11:22 AM MST up reply actions

Nice write-up Kap

I am really interested to see how some of the smaller school ILBs do in the combine. Of course, I hope that this is all a pointless exercise and that Irving is the future at MLB for the Broncos.

Win the individual battles at the LOS - all else flows from that.

by DE_BroncoFan on Feb 20, 2012 11:20 AM MST reply actions

Me too

That would make a lot of things clearer and move to another priority.

by KaptainKirk on Feb 20, 2012 11:23 AM MST up reply actions

Great job KK. Really great read and the formula makes sense to me...

The only thing we need to factor in is level of competition, but gives a good blueprint on what we need to look for when drafting ANY LB, in ANY round, especially when considering value for money, which clearly EFX is all about!

Foxy...you WERE on the hot seat, but you fooled me you rascally old deveil...keep building that team mate!

"Tebow is a special player. I have never seen a player quite like him in my whole career! I’m gonna play all out for the guy! I know he will be out there giving 110% every play every week, so I’m gonna give 120%!:

Champ Bailey.

by boydy2669 on Feb 20, 2012 11:54 AM MST reply actions

For sure.

by KaptainKirk on Feb 20, 2012 11:59 AM MST up reply actions

Love this kind os post, Kaptain

Awesome stuff. And as we can see on your other piece, the prod. ratio is a very accurate info to evaluate LBs.

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by Fabio Broncos on Feb 20, 2012 12:08 PM MST reply actions

I love Sean Spence but wonder if he is too light to play in the middle. I'm sure he could add the weight but would he be worth a 2nd round pick to sit the bench while he bulks up?

I also think Shawn Loiseau is intriguing and can be had later and be great depth.

Keuchly is a stud for not being asked to get after the QB hardly ever. The fact that he has a production ratio of 1.0 while not really be a sack specialist is pretty awesome. I would not mind him falling to us at 25 :). I wouldn’t be surprised if that 40 time pushed him down though.

Tim Tebow wears 3WM and drinks Tuscan whole milk.

by BroncoMath101 on Feb 20, 2012 12:43 PM MST reply actions

I could really see that happening. I've seen him play 6 or 7 times on TV. He never stood as straight-line fast.

His functional speed is impressive, in that he can find his way through traffic to meet the ball-carrier in the hole.

Win the individual battles at the LOS - all else flows from that.

by DE_BroncoFan on Feb 20, 2012 12:59 PM MST up reply actions

I just wonder if his great instincts will be able to compensate for his slower speed at the next level.

Tim Tebow wears 3WM and drinks Tuscan whole milk.

by BroncoMath101 on Feb 20, 2012 1:09 PM MST up reply actions

I know I am in the minority here and will get called out on this,

but I wonder how important it is to have a guy similar to Von in the event he is hurt worse than last year and would go on IR. If that were to happen we would be screwed. Especially if the D is schemed with the presence of someone of his capabilities at the Sam position. Last year may have been a wake up call to Fox that he has no one to fill Von’s shoes even slightly. Ronnell (Travis) Lewis sounds like a perfect backup to Von. Problem is he would be a 2nd round pick. A rebuilding team can’t spend 2nd round picks on backups. Unless or course our major holes are filled before the draft :)

"I am not better than anyone else just because I play football."
Tim Tebow

by Digger24 on Feb 20, 2012 3:42 PM MST reply actions

I'd say its more important to have a DE who can get those sacks so that if we did lose Von we wouldn't lose half our sack total.

We need a guy opposite Doom that can get to the QB consistently. Then if Von went down we’d just need one of our backup LBs to actually play the LB position without having to worry about rushing him.

Tim Tebow wears 3WM and drinks Tuscan whole milk.

by BroncoMath101 on Feb 20, 2012 5:05 PM MST up reply actions

Another nice one from KK.

I looked at the linebackers in a similar fashion in late 2011. I tried to find the spreadsheet and data I compiled, but I must’ve named it poorly. In the work I did, I only looked at numbers from 2011.

I created an index that included solo tackles, tackles-for-loss and sacks, with a heavy weighting on tackles-for-loss. I figured assisted tackles could be fudged (see Luke Kuechly) and sacks could be a product of scheme; but tackles-for-loss might be the best reflection of a linebacker’s instincts/reactions/preparation (maybe I’m wrong about this, but it made sense to me). And then I came up with a per game number.

The index served as the starting point for additional analysis and film study, which led me to Arkansas’ Jerry Franklin. The kid is super-prolific, fast, a leader and about the right size. I love his instincts and his technique. Ask any Razorback fan and they love Jerry Franklin. Plus, he shares my first name and last initial.

In fairness, Kuechly also scored highly on the index. But as I started to look at his tape, I saw lots of tackles downfield. Plus, I saw some stat-inflation with him (tackles that were counted as solos but should’ve been assisted tackles).

But Kuechly isn’t half the athlete that Jerry Franklin is. Kuechly reminds me a little of CU’s Jordan Dizon. For one thing, they’re both white. And that’s about it.

In all seriousness, Dizon was super-prolific at CU. He actually had a similar career-arc to Kuechly. Coming out, many of the same things that are being said about Kuechly were said about Jordan Dizon. You know the whole What-he-lacks-in-athleticism-he-more-than-makes-up-for-in-instincts-and-smarts-blah-blah-blah. The latest reports are that Jordan Dizon is now out of football. He couldn’t even make the Detroit Lions and I’m talking about the winless Lions, not the 2011 Lions. I’m not saying that Luke Kuechly will end up being the next Jordan Dizon, but…tread carefully. Players with subpar athleticism don’t last long in the NFL.

Anyway, enough about me and Jerry Franklin. Thanks Kirk. Good read.

There's no way Khloe's a Kardashian. No frickin' way.

by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Feb 20, 2012 7:36 PM MST reply actions