FanPost

2012 Draft - Scenario and Reason to Trade out of the first round

Here is one scenario in which I would like Denver to trade out of the first round.

Firstly, this post has to be read with the assumption that Denver draft board, coming draft day, it’s filled with prospects that have more or less the same grade between the 20th and 45th – 50th picks.



In this case, my favorite scenario would have the Broncos trading out of the first round for a high 2nd round ( between the 1st and the 7th selection of the second…… let this be a Xmas letter to Santa…please) and a 3rd round pick (that would be essentially still an high 3rd round pick).

Being this the compensation for trading out of the 25th pick overall, I would add another draft picks trade involving the Broncos, one with which Denver is giving its own 2nd round draft pick and one of the two 3rd round picks for trading up again in the top 15 selections of the second round.

These two movements would leave Denver with the following picks:

· High 2nd round pick (between 33rd and 40th selection overall)

· Another 2nd round pick (between 41st and 48th overall….please let me dream a little bit more)

· 3rd round pick (Denver own or the one that the Broncos got for trading the 25th pick overall….depending on what is necessary to give up to trade back into the top half of the 2nd round).

· 4th rounder, 5th rounder (St. Louis), 5th rounder, 7th rounder (I don’t know if Denver is on the record to receive compensatory draft pick this year, I don’t think because it should be related to 2010 FA signing / FA lost and if I remember correctly during McDaniels 2nd off-season the Broncos brought in a lot of Fas).

Even if basically, at the end of the 2 trades, Denver owns the same amount of draft pick that owns now, I won’t mind at all if Denver would not select in the first round.

This is still a pre-combine thought, and in addiction to this, I have no clue about how much the Broncos re-evaluate prospects due to combine performances (I’m really up for interviews but I’m not really a fun of drills without pads…).

This being said, the impression I got, by mocks around the web and reading several different pages of prospects analysis, is that this year there are a lot of solid prospects (these kind of players that should be picked in the back of the first round and first 5-7 picks of the second round), really more than usual. There also quite few elite and great prospects (little bit less than usually) and the most of them are junior collegiate (and I prefer senior players…..without any good reason, probably).

Also I could see a lot of “position groups” where prospects could finish having more or less the same grade by the most of the teams. If this assumption would be valid, any run on a particular position starting between the 10th and 15th overall pick, would allow a “group position” to drop.

An example: if the run is at cornerback, and it starts with Kirkpatrick being picked 12th overall, then some teams, that were hoping to draft Kirkpatrick at 15th-16th overall, could try to pick as soon as possible one between Dennard, Jankins, Minniefield or Gilmore, even if it would mean, in a pre-combine time, reaching a bit for any of them (in the most mocks and analysis I saw they’re graded in a mixed way between the 15th best player overall to the 55th player overall, there is no really agreement by now about who is the third best corner and which could be his draft value). If just one team bites on it, more team would too soon after, it often happens. So a run at cornerback, in example, could let DT or O-Line men to drop and some of them would be there at the top of the second round.

A similar situation could be happening for any “positional group”.

At linebacker I think there are three MLB that look like first round guys right now and only Burfict, between them, could fall in the second round (and just because character issues), but IMO there are some really good OLB (Wagner, David) that could drop a little bit from the top to the middle of the second round if some run at “position group” is forced in the first round.

And for defensive tackles, everybody could make the case about a certain DT (TA’amu i.e.) being worth a late 1st round selection, so Thompson, Worthy, Cox and Poe…..I saw a mock where even Martin was selected by the Giants at 32 overall……with a run at another position group, some of them, if not all (I guess Still would be gone at 20th anyhow, run or not) could be there at the top of the 2nd round too.

A list of offensive line prospects that could be selected in the backend of the first round includes: Adams (T), Sanders (T), Glenn (G), Osemele (G) and Konz (C)…..even if I’m one of the few Broncos fans that is really happy with the actual O-Line starters…..I would love to see Glenn or Konz in orange and blue….

A 1st round early run could be at any position, including at QB, as it was last year…..especially if Tannehill is gone by the 6th-10th pick…..some team could trade up for Weeden at the end of the first, I won’t be shocked at all.

Considering these kinds of scenarios, I would love the Broncos to play smart (assuming that their final board is as I mentioned and there is no player that is graded this much higher than others to push Denver to trade up in the first round directly to pick him mortgaging all of 2012 draft) and trade out of the first round selecting two players at the beginning of the second round. Those players would have the same grade and most probably the more impact on the roster that somebody chosen staying put at 25th. The difference that I can feel a drop off of talent between the first 50 players and the next 50, in this year talent pool, so Denver would be able to pick two top 50 talent players, instead of just one.

Not to be forgotten is the pay-roll saving that these movements would allow, if I’d be a GM….I’d love it….

I would add that there is a really good DE talent pool that is just not enough freakishly athletic to be in discussion for 1st round selection, but is more than worth an early 2nd round though and something more… and Denver actually needs a new young pass rushing DE that could push Ayers and learn from Doom, IMO.

This is a list of players that in my opinion could be late 1st round pick / early second rounder:

Position

Name

Average projection pre-combine

RB

Lamar Miller

1st – 2nd r

RB

David Wilson

2nd r

RB

Doug Martin

2nd r

WR/KR

Kendall Wright

1st r

WR

Mohamed Sanu

1st – 2nd r

WR

Reuben Randle

1st – 2nd r

TE

Dwayne Allen

1st – 2nd r

TE

Coby Fleener

1st - 2nd r

TE

Orson Charles

1st – 2nd r

T

Mike Adams

1st - 2nd r

T

Zebrie Sanders

2nd r

G/T

Cordy Glenn

1st r

G

Amini Silatolu

2nd r

G/T

Kelechi Osemele

2nd r

C

Peter Konz

1st – 2nd r

C

Ben Jones

2nd r

C

Michael Brewster

2nd – 3rd r

DE

Whitney Mercilus

1st r

DE

Nick Perry

1st – 2nd r

DE

Vinny Curry

1st – 2nd r

DE

Andre Branch

1st – 2nd r

DE

Jake Bequette

2nd r

DE

Cam Johnson

2nd r

DT

Derek Wolfe

2nd r

DE/DT

Jared Crick

1st – 2nd r

DT

Kendall Reyes

2nd – 3rd r

DE

Chandler Jones

2nd r

DT

Jerel Worthy

1st – 2nd r

DT

Fletcher Cox

1st – 2nd r

DT

Dontari Poe

1st – 2nd r

DT

Brandon Thompson

1st – 2nd r

DT

Mike Martin

2nd r

DT

Alameda Ta’amu

1st – 2nd r

OLB

Ronnel Lewis

2nd r

DE

Billy Winn

2nd – 3rd r

OLB

Zack Brown

2nd r

OLB

Lavonte David

2nd r

OLB

Bobby Wagner

2nd r

ILB

Vontaze Burfict

1st r

CB

Alfonzo Dennard

1st

CB

Janoris Jenkins

1st – 2nd r

CB

Chase Minnifield

1st – 2nd r

CB

Stephone Gilmore

1st – 2nd r

CB

Desmond Trufant

2nd – 3rd r

CB

Jayron Hosley

2nd – 3rd r

CB/KR/PR

Brandon Boykin

2nd – 3rd r

S

Mark Barron

1st – 2nd r

S

Markelle Martin

2nd r

S

Harrison Smith

2nd – 3rd

S

George Iloka

2nd – 3rd r

I expect that some pass rusher and some corners will improve their status and grade on some team board with combine performance. I expect also that Denver does not have all this players listed in their board and some of them would fall out of the board because of poor interview and off field red flags.

What do you think about this scenario, do you think too that could be a real possibility, would you prefer the Broncos to stay put?

GO BRONCOS!!!

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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