Some Clarification is in Order: What Position is Worth a 1st Rounder?

And I agree with you on what to use the 1st round for, defense is much better value and we could seriously use a DT, MLB or DB. As for RB in the 2nd, while it’s a tough choice, I do think we should add a RB to compete with Moreno and Ball for the #2 and #3 spot, and I think Doug Martin in the 2nd or LaMichael James in the 3rd or 4th.

But, looking at the Denver Broncos and the priority positions one could say that RB is the greatest priority. The Broncos have talented DT/DEs this is true, though not talented enough to get the penetration to the QB like Fox would want, so I think that position(s) is a priority. Kevin Vickerson for one surprised me when he said he was trimming down, but when he said he was taking in excess of 30lbs off that concerned me about his athleticism (limited as it is), and it showed right away. His play for the games he played was lackluster to say the least and our suspicions were caught on camera right before our eyes. Wheter he stays on the team or not, his position can be upgraded in the draft or FA. Ty Warren is another DT that EFX had high hopes for and Fox voiced that he still holds hope for him. That may be, but missing a couple of years to injuries is concerning to say the least. Money spent wrong imo. Bunkley/Thomas? Pretty solid against the run, but lacked in collapsing OLines. That doesn’t help the Broncos’ DEs in the least bit, but are needed, I think we will try to re-sign both. Ryan McBean? Is he finally getting it. Seemed to be, but it has been a hard road to hoe for him. The others? Don’t hold much hope for those. So we have 5 DTs that I count with one mediocre pass rusher…One of the top priorities as Fox stated.

On the RB side, the Broncos are lacking that down hill rusher that has breakaway speed, and counting on Knowshon Moreno is like counting on the government to create jobs. Don’t hold your breath. McGahee is on the downhill side of his career even though he was great at times playing last year. Rotational players like Ball and Johnson are just that and not much more. Fanning? Who knows? So, with the Broncos rushing attack we only have one (McGahee the Moses). To me that makes this position a higher priority that DE/DT just because of the talent we have on board. EFX may opt for FA for a veteran RB like they did with McGahee, and that’s great, but if we don’t see that then guess what…Yeah…Let a David Wilson or a Lamar Miller slide to 25 and bang!!!

And I wasn’t suggesting that we, specifically, should draft any one positions. I agree that offensive line isn’t a priority, though it could be next season if they don’t continue to improve on the trend of getting better. I like your priorities, though my order would go DT/CB/RB.

That same logic could apply to Manning and his 11 Pro Bowls and 5 All-Pros. There is really is no way to offset the massive difference between Manning and Brady, but if I go back much farther, it messes with the current norms of the NFL. The QB position was downplayed by Brady, but there were other QB’s like Warner (3 PB, 1 AP), Garcia (4 PB), Hasselbeck (3 PB) and others who were taken later. But this did apply to multiple positions, OT for one, had Jason Peters who had 4 PB and 1 AP but went undrafted. Or take Antonio Gates going undrafted but having 7 PB and 3 AP.

I can understand the desire to remove outliers, but after doing so, almost all the positions go up, especially OT, TE, and OLB, which would all go up by nearly half a round while removing the top outliers only moves the QB value up about .23

Thanks for your comment though, and I thought about doing that, but it would change the difference between positions, rather it would raise them all up higher.

We need the opposite draft strategy of Oakland, let’s keep out 1st rounders instead of trading them.

Now they can franchise Flynn. Wouldn’t it be funny if they do that and no other team wants him for that price and they’re stuck with him.

I don’t see us taking an offensive lineman, mostly because chemistry and time together are so vital and as the season went on they slowly improved. While I do think offensive line will be an area of interest as the season goes on to see if guys like Beadles are the long term solution.

But as for applying this model to the Broncos, while offensive lineman are among the best value, I feel that with such huge needs at defensive tackle and defensive back, two other positions that are great value as well in the early rounds.

And games started is another way solid way to look at it, and I have spent time at Draft Metrics, it’s a better measurement of Utility, as in the teams gets the most use of the players they select, whereas my method rather looks at top tier talent rather the starter talent, but both have uses, depending on what you want to look at. Other metrics that could be used is Approximate Value done by Pro Football Reference or other advanced metrics from sites like Football Outsiders or Advanced NFL Stats.

As for the MLB position, in the 4-3, it’s a very tough position to play, and that is why there is such a massive difference in playing level, same can be said for FS in the league. When you think of great MLB’s there are 5-7 names, after that most MLB’s that come to mind are bad, there’s not a lot of grey space. The MLB, and to a less extent the FS, requires a lot of instinct and mental ability to react so well. That is what separates guys like Urlacher and Lewis, because of that hard-to-find talent they are just head and shoulders above others. That is also what makes them hard to find. Mays is a solid MLB, but because he lacks the instinct and mental level, he just can’t compare to those great MLB’s. Add in being forced be be the best coverage linebacker, MLB has the tough job of any linebacker.

As for Irving, there is a reason he wasn’t an early round pick, he’s similar to Mays as in he’s a strong, physical run stopper, but seems to lack those skills that would set him apart from the rest. So as for the MLB position, I’d rather keep Mays and have Irving and him compete and develop for the job. If neither player improves, then draft a MLB next draft.

I didn’t see that trend, but the last draft may have been the beginning of the trend.

It depended on the years, I put their draft position as the last round plus one of the season. So for almost all the UDFA I gave them an “8” for their round.