Improving Completion Percentage: A historical analysis and what that means for Tim Tebow

by Bronco Mike on Feb 23, 2012 1:09 AM MST

Hello folks, hope everyone is having a restful Broncos offseason. In all the talk about how much Tim Tebow needs to improve next year, one of the questions that isn't being asked is what exactly does this improvement mean? Everyone has varying opinions on what is most important for him to work on and I feel like with a lot of it, we mostly agree. What I want to examine here is an improvement in Tim Tebow's completion percentage. Quite simply, an increase in percentage equals an increase of yards and therefore an increase in favorable field position and scoring opportunities. We all know an increase is necessary and beneficial to both Tim and our team, but just exactly how much of an improvement should we expect, and what would that equate to numbers wise?

I wanted to attack this and get a better idea of these numbers by looking at any starting QB that has seen significant starting time since the year 2000. Specifically, I looked at the completion percentages of these quarterbacks from their first starting year to their second starting year. In other words, how much did they improve or digress in this specific category from year 1 to year 2 as a starter. Why do this? Well for all intents and purposes, Tim is going from a years worth of starts to his second full year. My only parameter was that each QB had to have at least 5 starts from year one to year two. Follow me after the jump and let's take a look at the results.

I've included completion and attempt numbers as well as the percentage for each year. Pay particular attention to the final column which scores the increase/decrease in completion percentage for each quarterback from year 1 to year 2:

QB	COMP 1	ATT 1	% 1	COMP 2	ATT 2	%2	DIFFERENCE
M. Bulger	138	214	63.5	336	532	63.2	-0.3%
M. Schaub	192	289	66.4	251	380	66.1	-0.3%
R. Grossman	262	480	54.6	122	225	54.2	-0.4%
T. Romo	220	337	65.3	335	520	64.4	-0.9%
P. Rivers	284	460	61.7	277	460	60.2	-1.5%
T. Brady	264	413	63.9	373	601	62.1	-1.8%
M. Ryan	265	434	61.1	263	451	58.3	-2.8%
K. Kolb	115	189	60.8	146	253	57.7	-3.1%
D. Brees	320	526	60.8	205	356	57.6	-3.2%
M. Leinart	214	377	56.8	60	112	53.6	-3.2%
R. Fitzpatrick	221	372	59.4	127	227	55.9	-3.5%
C. McCoy	135	222	60.8	265	463	57.2	-3.6%
Roethlisberger	196	295	66.4	168	268	62.7	-3.7%
J. Russell	198	368	53.8	120	246	48.8	-5.0%
C. Pennington	275	399	68.9	189	297	63.6	-5.3%
D. Anderson	298	527	56.5	142	283	50.2	-5.3%
M. Moore	85	138	61.6	79	143	55.2	-5.4%
S. Bradford	354	590	60.0	191	357	53.5	-6.5%
M. Cassel	327	516	63.4	271	493	55.0	-8.4%
P. Losman	113	228	49.6	268	429	62.5	+12.9%
V. Young	184	357	51.5	238	382	62.3	+10.8%
M. Stafford	201	377	53.3	421	663	63.5	+10.2%
M. Hasselbeck	176	321	54.8	267	419	63.7	+8.9%
J. Elway	123	259	47.5	214	380	56.3	+8.8%
A. Smith	84	165	50.9	257	442	58.1	+7.2%
C. Palmer	263	432	60.9	345	509	67.8	+6.9%
K. Orton	190	368	51.6	272	465	58.5	+6.9%
J. Campbell	110	207	53.1	250	417	60.0	+6.9%
J. Freeman	158	290	54.5	291	474	61.4	+6.9%
J. Harrington	215	429	50.1	309	554	55.8	+5.7%
P. Manning	326	575	56.7	331	533	62.1	+5.4%
E. Manning	95	197	48.2	294	557	52.8	+4.6%
J. Cutler	81	137	59.1	297	467	63.6	+4.5%
D. Carr	233	444	52.5	167	295	56.6	+4.1%
K. Boller	116	224	51.8	258	464	55.6	+3.8%
B. Leftwich	239	418	57.2	267	441	60.5	+3.3%
J. Flacco	257	428	60.0	315	499	63.1	+3.1%
M. Vick	231	421	54.9	181	321	56.4	+2.5%
B. Quinn	45	89	50.6	136	256	53.1	+2.5%
D. Garrard	98	168	58.3	145	241	60.2	+2.1%
P. Ramsey	117	227	51.5	179	337	53.1	+2.1%
M. Sanchez	196	364	53.8	278	507	54.8	+1.5%
A. Rodgers	341	536	63.6	350	541	64.7	+1.1%
T. Jackson	171	294	58.2	88	149	59.1	+0.9%
C. Henne	274	451	60.8	301	490	61.4	+0.6%

There are a total of 45 quarterbacks, 44 of which have seen significant starting time since 2000. One is a historical comparison, but we'll get to that later. Of these 44 modern day QB's, a total of 19 of them showed some level of digression in completion percentage from year 1 to year 2, and 25 of them showed some level of improvement in completion percentage from year 1 to year 2.

Breaking this down further, of the QB's that digressed, 37% of them had their completion percentage decrease by 3% or less, 37% of them had their completion percentage decrease from 3-5%, and the remaining 26% percent had their completion percentage decrease from 5-8.4%. Because we expect Tebow to improve his completion percentage and not digress, let's move on from these numbers to the QB's that showed a positive improvement.

Of the 25 QB's that improved, 32% of them showed an improvement from 0.5-3%. 24% of them showed an improvement from 3-5%. Interestingly, 48% of the QB's that improved completion percentage from year 1 to year 2 improved from 5-13%.

Last year, Tim Tebow had a completion percentage of 46.5%. The only other QB's on this list that posted a sub 50 percentage in year 1 are Eli Manning and J.P. Losman. Eli Manning increased his percentage by 4.6 percent in year 2 while Losman increased his by 12.9%. Needless to say there's not a lot of data to compare QB's who started off in the 40's in year 1, so let's do this. Let's take each category of improvement and extrapolate Tim Tebow's numbers into projections for year 2. Looking back, Tebow had 261 pass attempts in 11 games, which means that he attempted about 24 passes per game. Not knowing the run/pass breakdown for the future, let's use the round number of 400 pass attempts as our baseline (this equates to 25 pass attempts per game)

Increase	%	COMP	ATT	YARDS	TD	INT
3%	49.5	198	400	2673	18	9
5%	51.5	206	400	2781	19	10
7%	53.5	214	400	2889	19	11
9%	55.5	222	400	2997	20	11

Here's where things get interesting. Remember earlier when I alluded to a historical reference? Well if you weren't too lazy to look through the chart, you realize I was speaking of John Elway. Now for those of you that hate comparisons across eras, tough, go whine somewhere else. For the purposes of this research, I'm only looking at numbers and the reason why I included him was because John Elway had a completion percentage of 47.5 in year 1 and increased by about 9 % to 56.3 in year 2. Why this comparison is interesting is simple: A menial increase for Tim in the 3% range isn't really an improvement, an increase of 5% gets him on the good side of 50%. The reason I think an an increase in percentage of 8-9% for Tebow is attainable is because the numbers would break down like this:

A 9% increase next year would equate to 36 more completions next year. For each game, that would mean an increase of 2.25 completions, which if you think of nothing more than about 2 more completions per game, a 9% increase doesn't seem too daunting a task for Tebow.

There's been a lot of information as well as speculation in this post. If I was asked what an acceptable expectation was for Tim Tebow in order to view his 2nd full season as a starter as a success, it would be an increase in completion percentage from 46.5%-55.5%. Using his averages from last year that means about 3000 yards passing, about 20 TD's and 11 INT's. That is a good start. There's no way of telling if he can consistently break 60%, and for Tim and all the other things he brings to the offense, might not be necessary. Time will tell, we'll all know soon. Until then, this is my story and I'm sticking to it.

Poll

In your estimation, what completion % should Tim Tebow have in order for the Broncos offense to be successful next year?

50%

12 votes

53%

36 votes

55%

84 votes

58%

25 votes

Nothing short of 60%

15 votes

172 votes | Poll has closed

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

Tweet Comment 36 comments | 3 recs |

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Comments

I will base Tim's success on his win-loss record; not his completion percentage

by keb on Feb 23, 2012 3:47 AM MST reply actions

It's all inter-related

Last year the Broncos scored 36 TD’s which was tied for 8th in the AFC. Incidentally, we were 3rd in our own division. Last year Tim Tebow averaged a TD every for every 11 completions. Not sure where this number stacks with the rest of the league, but for the sake of my argument, it doesn’t matter. An extra 36 completions by improving his completion percentage by 9% would mean an extra 3 TD’s just from Tim Tebow, and that doesn’t account for changes in field position and other scoring opportunities.

Last year, the Broncos averaged 152 yards passing per game, and compiled about 2400 yards through the air. An increase to a 55.5% completion percentage looks like this in any given game: 14-25 and increases the passing average to 189 yards per game or about 3000 yards.

I’m going to judge Tim by his wins as well, but it is hard to refuse the fact that an improvement in this area will equal a better record. More scores and opportunities means more points, more points means a better chance to win.

He can accomplish this, like I said it means about 2 more completions per game with roughly the same amount of attempts. If Tim Tebow is unable to make that small of an improvement next year, I doubt that we have any sort of increase in wins, and I doubt that the Broncos would view him as a long term starter.

Thank you Broncos for such a fantastic year! Thank you for coming together as a TEAM! Thank you for giving us a reason to believe again! I love you guys!!!

by Bronco Mike on Feb 23, 2012 4:31 AM MST up reply actions

I sure can’t argue that more completions could add up to more wins….Thanks for the time and thought you put into your post….

by keb on Feb 23, 2012 7:32 PM MST up reply actions

55 is the Target...

If he cant get “close to” that level, EFX goes shopping for a new QB…he might keep his job if we have a winning season. If we miss the playoffs and our D improved, I think he will have hard competition if they dont trade him after that. Even in our losses, we have to be competitive and not have 3 crappy quarters on Offense all the time. I’m asking you guys: Isnt the test whether we make the playoffs? I think if we make the playoffs and Tim improves markedly -5-7% with the target 55%, he’s in. If we make the playoffs and he doesn’t improve -then we hafta go deep. If we miss the payoffs and he plays the same -he’s done. I’m not giving him credit for running here, just looking at results. odds are if he runs crazy, he will get hurt – then what? Anyway, maybe Im missing something, but I think he has to show a good chunk of improvement and make the playoffs…of course, if we miss the payoffs – and Tim improves a bit but not enough – we get a new OC and they draft a QB my guess is…I’m all for building the D this year and then build the O next once we know the answers and Tim has had a fair shot.

by Denverkewl on Feb 23, 2012 6:57 AM MST reply actions

If Tebow leads us to the playoffs again next year,

he’ll be the starter the following, regardless of what his numbers look like. Coaches get fired by losing, not by low QB passing . That said, I think he’ll pretty easily get the additional 2 completions per game. He’s halfway there if the receivers drop the ball one less time per game. We also have to remember that for whatever reason the TE and RB (short passing game) was virtually nonexistent this year, and those are the throws that lift comp %. Just doing more of that next year will also help. The difference between 45 and 55% isn’t that much. He may not do 60% but I’m guessing 55+.

by SD guy on Feb 23, 2012 7:19 AM MST up reply actions

Interesting post

And just a quick thought. I expect Tebow to be around 55% next season, and I say that because of recent history. While in the modern NFL accuracy is much more valued a few QB’s manage to be very successful around the 55% accuracy mark. The biggest name would be Donovan McNabb, possibly the 3rd best QB of the 2000’s. He had a very successful career with just above 55% accuracy and that is why I don’t mind Tebow being below 60% because I believe he can succeed if he reaches 55%. But if he can’t reach around that mark, it’s hard for me to see him being successful, especially since it’s hard to consistently win games below that accuracy mark.

I never really expect Tebow to be 60+% accuracy guy, but I don’t hold that against him, there are QB’s who have succeed below 60%, but if he can get to 55%, that would be a serious issue.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2012 7:22 AM MST reply actions

What's the translation to 3rd down conversion?

Seems like Elway may care about this more…and maybe “assumes” base completion per centage must be in the mid fifties in order to stay on the team or any team…but regardless, 3rd down conversion tell the tale? and you’re right, Fox must win no matter what else…

by Denverkewl on Feb 23, 2012 7:38 AM MST up reply actions

3rd downs win games

But it comes down to how the offense addresses the offense as a whole. If the Broncos make the focus to make medium gains on 1st and 2nd then consistently convert 3rd and shorts, accuracy is key. But if the Broncos stick with the current offense of the Chunk Offense which focus on about two big plays per down set, rather than conservative gains per play, accuracy is important, but because there is such a low completion percentage on deep passes anyways.

If Tebow can get his completion percentage up to around 55% it will go a long way in either situation, but the biggest issue is he needs to improve his passing on 3rd down, which is currently his worst down, also he needs to improve his accuracy under when pressured. If he can improve to 55% overall and improve his 3rd down and pressure situations, the offense will move much better.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2012 11:45 AM MST up reply actions

“Quite simply, an increase in percentage equals an increase of yards and therefore an increase in favorable field position and scoring opportunities.”

This line is just not true, because there is more than one way to improve completion percentage. If he increases his percentage by throwing shorter safer passes then it won’t give more yards. What you really need to look at is yards per attempt. If he stays at 50% but we start getting even more long plays, and touchdowns I would be just fine with that. If he gets to 70% on check downs and screen passes nothing more than like five yards. That could really stall our offense.

by Fan in Exile on Feb 23, 2012 7:30 AM MST reply actions 2 recs

Thank you for bringing up that point. Completion percentage should not be looked at in a vacuum and I’ll continue to focus on overall results. Having said that, I can easily see him raising his percentage significantly within the exact same offense, and I believe he will.

But as BM mentioned in the article, a 10% increase can be achieved by completing just 2 more passes per game. If those are bubble screens for zero yards, no thank you. I’d rather have the shot 40 yards downfield go incomplete and you can keep the extra 10%.

by richj44 on Feb 23, 2012 10:49 AM MST up reply actions

Those check downs/screen passes are very very effective for an Offense.

Look at the Saints, Brees keeps breaking his own passing comp%, they always do short passes early on then Bam 70 yard TD to Henderson…
Makes the safeties cheat up and then it makes it alot easier for them to get burned over the top.

Would love to see more of that in this Offense.

-Champ Bailey's calendar goes straight from March 31st to April 2nd; no one fools Champ Bailey-
-The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese -

by Automatik41 on Feb 23, 2012 1:05 PM MST up reply actions

Well

Tebow averaged about 6.4 yards per attempt and about 13.5 yards per completion, so yes and no on this argument as well. Things like check downs and screen passes are outlet passes that allow the offense to continue to move the ball and gain positive yardage. One of the problems last year was that the passing game was largely feast and famine because there wasn’t a lot of design for these outlet passes. Go back and watch some of the games, how many times did Tebow “check down” when stuff down the field was covered? I’ll take more consistency with this offense over the opportunity to gain “chunks”. The truth is, the kind of QB Tim is will be an asset to the offense IF the defense has to respect and play the short and intermediate passing game as well.

Don’t look at increasing completion percentage as some fairy tail number with no tangible affect. Consistency is the name of the game as far as improvement for our entire offense. Consistency will mean that our offense is converting more 3rd downs, therefore gaining field position and time of possession.

Thank you Broncos for such a fantastic year! Thank you for coming together as a TEAM! Thank you for giving us a reason to believe again! I love you guys!!!

by Bronco Mike on Feb 23, 2012 1:08 PM MST up reply actions

Consistency

“Don’t look at increasing completion percentage as some fairy tail number with no tangible affect.”

I’m not saying that at all. I’m saying that completion percentage, in and by itself, can be totally misleading as an indicator of offensive success. There are ways to raise it that are very helpful to an offense, but there are also ways to raise it that end up doing very little for your offense. Making a statement like "Quite simply, an increase in percentage equals an increase of yards and therefore an increase in favorable field position and scoring opportunities" is not statistically valid and it oversimplifies things. Quite simply, it’s more complicated than that.

by richj44 on Feb 23, 2012 5:25 PM MST up reply actions

rec'd... YPA is a MUCH more important stat

When we were winning, TT was avging over 7 YPA, even when only completing 25% of his passes.

A higher completion percentage SHOULD help his YPA, because those “zero” yard incompletes will be replaced by positive yardage… but thats not a given, and a dink-and-dunk, high completion percentage offense like NE runs would be an extremely poor use of TT’s skills.

Losman is a great example of this… his completion percentage jumped way up in year 2, but if I remember correctly much of that was a shift in scheme that put more emphasis on a short passing game, which was a bad fit for his and Lee Evans’ skillset… with the expected result.

by cjfarls on Feb 24, 2012 11:55 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs

I think this offense can be successful with Tim throwing at 55% next year and that would be a huge improvement in one year.

I think it is reasonable to expect that as well. I also think that will give him another year as our starter and in year 3 we should see very close to or above 60%.

With all the deep balls we like to throw 55% will give us a few more TDs IMO and lead to at least 2-3 more wins.

Tim Tebow wears 3WM and drinks Tuscan whole milk.

by BroncoMath101 on Feb 23, 2012 9:40 AM MST reply actions

I think 55% is the primary target

But I think we can succeed if he hits 50%, since he is a playmaker and we are suposed to upgrade our h-backs stable and defense.

This signature was sacked by Von Miller.
I bleed Orange & Blue. GB².

by Fabio Broncos on Feb 23, 2012 10:19 AM MST reply actions

Very interesting. We had a little bit of this discussion going on another fanpost so I'm going to repost here what I posted there.

Elway had to big jumps during his career: in 1983 he completed 47.5%, in 84 he completed 56.3% (8.8% improvement)
in 92 he completed 55.1%, in 93 he completed 63.2% (8.1% improvement)
Cunningham went from 42.0% as a rookie to 53.1% as a 2nd year player (11.1% improvement) but he only threw 81 passes as a rookie. Additionally he only started 4 games as a rookie and only started 5 games in his second year.
McNabb had two big jumps: as a rookie 49.1% to 58.0% (8.9% improvement) in his second year (6 starts as a rookie and 16 the following year)
in 2003 he completed 57.5% in 2004 he completed 64.0% (6.5% improvement).
Vick completed only 44.1% of his passes as rookie (113 attempts) and 54.9% (10.8% improvement) the following year. Before prison in 2006 Vick completed 52.6% and that jumped to 62.6% in his first year as a starter after prison, 2010.
These guys were chosen because they are all QBs to whom TT gets compared because of the running aspect of their games.

I voted for 55% because I think it is doable

Win the individual battles at the LOS - all else flows from that.

by DE_BroncoFan on Feb 23, 2012 11:40 AM MST reply actions

It has been said that the game really slows down for a QB during their 3rd year in the NFL.

I would be really interested to see what these numbers look like for the above-mentioned QBs going from their second year in the league to their 3rd.

Win the individual battles at the LOS - all else flows from that.

by DE_BroncoFan on Feb 23, 2012 11:46 AM MST reply actions

I think completion % is misleading - the key is yards/completion and 1st down %

Tebow is a deep routes passer – not a dink and dunk move the chains passer. That won’t change much next year. We will likely still be more of a touchdown or punt offense rather than a sustained drives offense. At least re the passing side.

Historically, the short passers are the ones who improve their completion % the fastest as they get used to the NFL game/routes. They already have the fast reads and release coming into the league – in large part because reads/release was compensating for lack of arm strength even in college.

Tebow already has elite level yards/completion numbers (13.7) – but transitioning his game to a higher completion, shorter pass, 1st down, drive-sustaining game will mean a lot more game focus on his current weaknesses (fast reads, fast release). So that number will likely drop – as he improves – before rising again as the weakness disappears.

Even if it works (which I think it will longer term), the transition will be erratic. Improving weaknesses is always erratic. Tebow’s improvement is not simply the NFL transition of other pro-style QB’s. My guess is that the erratic stuff will lead to a lot more interceptions. Some of which could be ugly and raise questions about whether he’s actually improving.

by yibberat on Feb 23, 2012 1:41 PM MST reply actions

Football Outsiders has some good drive stats

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats

Denver ranked:

26th in yards/drive (25,8 yds)
27th in points/drive (1.4 points)
23rd in TD/drive (15.6% chance of a TD)
29th in punts/drive (50.8% chance of a punt)
22nd in turnovers/drive (14.5% chance of a turnover) – of which
5th in interceptions/drive (6.5% chance of an interception)
31st in fumbles/drive (8% chance of a fumble)
26th in “drive success rate” (63% chance in any series of getting either a 1st down or a TD)

by yibberat on Feb 23, 2012 1:52 PM MST up reply actions

These are probably more in need of improvement than Tebow's personal stats

But a lot of that improvement is precisely on Tebow’s passing game because there’s only so much that a good running game (which we already have) can do to change these.

by yibberat on Feb 23, 2012 1:54 PM MST up reply actions

I was going to semi rip you for your line in bold

But you admit what I’m trying to say. You can’t remove Tebow’s stats, put them in a vacuum, and pretend that they don’t affect the efficiency of our offense. The sure-fire way to improve many things about our offense is to improve his completion percentage. Now how you go about this is what can be debated.

Someone said that an increase by “dink and dunk” is not benificial. And in the extreme sense that Tim would become Matt Leinart 2.0, they are correct. But let’s take another example. Say for every throw away Tim had, and there were several per game where he was protecting the ball because nothing was there, say for every 4 throwaways per game or whatever it was, we instead have an outlet or a checkdown two or three times. That stuff adds up and is another dimension to the game. It all works together. Hitting stuff underneath neutralizes a pass rush and over the course of a game softens the LB’s and opens other things up.

I don’t think we should be a dink and dunk offense either, but it would be nice if they provided Tebow an outlet underneath and trained him to go to it when nothing else is there. You go from 0 yards and a throwaway to something positive.

Thank you Broncos for such a fantastic year! Thank you for coming together as a TEAM! Thank you for giving us a reason to believe again! I love you guys!!!

by Bronco Mike on Feb 23, 2012 2:44 PM MST up reply actions

OK - so I won't bold anything

Giving Tebow one underneath outlet won’t do much. Teams will very quickly adjust to “you stick around on the left side of the line and everyone else go deep” and neutralize it. The NFL passing game requires routes that mix things up. And a QB who understands the difference between passing on 1st down (when the QB can take some risks to get extra yards – and throw the ball away if nothing’s there) and passing on 3rd down (when a completion is all important and the yards that matter are the ones to get a 1st down).

Tebow must master that 3rd down pass – and give us 1st downs and thus an extra three plays. Two more completions per game (as an abstract stat in isolation) will NOT work.

For a deep passer on a run-first team, they will have to be two+ extra completions – per game – in 3rd and semi-long situations when the defense is completely geared up for the pass (and an underneath “escape hatch”). That’s what will sustain drives and give us more chances to put points on the board. A dink-and-dunk passer finds themselves in far fewer 3rd and semi-long situations – because they’ve likely gotten a short completion (still longer than an average run) in on 1st or 2nd. And their read/release skills help them in the 3rd down situations they do face.

Denver overall averaged 27 pass attempts per game. Tebow’s tenure as QB was 24/25 attempts per game. Far short of the NFL average of 34-35 and short of the average for other run-first teams (29 for Houston, 32 for Vikings/Seahawks). Tebow is going to have to attempt more passes (likely dink-and-dunk) on 1st/2nd — AND complete them all — AND complete the two “sticky situation” passes in order for our offense to put enough points on the board next year to win games. It probably means about 5/6 extra completions and 7 extra attempts per game – most of them shorter thru-a-tight-window type stuff. Precisely the situations that Tebow has trouble with.

IMO, the biggest problem for the Broncos (as a team) is that we have a fan base that will accept no options other than “Tebow will do it and there are no other options”. Finding a dink-and-dunk passer to play some series and eat up the clock against good offense teams is easy. Putting them in a game while Tebow is still transitioning to a passing game where he can put points on the board is completely unacceptable to a large portion of the fan base. And that fan base doesn’t IMO really understand that we were a basically a 6-10 team last year. 8-8 was solely fluky luck and those two wins were 100% of what got us into the playoffs. A 5-3 record when a team scores less than 20 points is NOT repeatable. And Tebow’s improvements are not going to create high scoring offenses overnight. We’ve created unreasonable expectations for both 2012 and for Tebow.

by yibberat on Feb 23, 2012 4:06 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs

I don't think what I've proposed is unreasonable

These are just averages, its not to say that every game he will be 14-25. Last season there were several games where Tim attempted passes in the high 30’s and even went into the 40’s against the Patriots.

What you proposed, seven more attempts and 5 more completions means that over a season that’s 32 attemps per game with 19-20 completions which breaks down to about 62.5%. I would love if Tebow jumped from 46.5 to 62.5, but it also seems like an unreasonable expectation since we are on the subject.

As far as the fanbase, there are some that don’t want to hear anything in regards to Tebow that isn’t positive, and on one hand I sort of understand where it comes from. This was a snake bit franchise that was dismantled and changed very quickly, and last year was a breath of fresh air. I love how Tim helped lead the team and I agree that he has things that can’t be quantified or explained by stats. But I also know that in a results driven business, expecting a modest improvement is not only fair, it is necessary for our team to succeed. I like Tebow and think he can succeed, but I’m also realistic. I agree with you that he can’t duplicate last year and expect the Broncos to be division champs or a playoff team.

I think it is more than reasonable to say that 55%, 3000 yards and about a 2-1 TD/INT ratio is a successful season for Tim, and if he does this, our team can be successful. And that is one of the points of this post. People keep saying “improvements” without really putting a tangible finger on it and that’s what I wanted to do.

Thank you Broncos for such a fantastic year! Thank you for coming together as a TEAM! Thank you for giving us a reason to believe again! I love you guys!!!

by Bronco Mike on Feb 23, 2012 5:01 PM MST up reply actions

You're mixing numbers

His numbers this year (excl the partial SD game) were 11 completions in 24 attempts.

Your post says that he will increase completions but not really attempts – for 14 completions in 25 attempts – for a 55% or so completion percentage.

My post says he will have to increase attempts (if Denver is going to actually sustain drives and put points on the board next year) – and complete most of them as well. 16/17 completions in 32 attempts. Only a 52-54% completion percentage – but quite a bit tougher to achieve for him.

by yibberat on Feb 23, 2012 5:31 PM MST up reply actions

Also

if you exclude the three blowout losses (Detroit, Buf, NEx2) – where QB’s often are forced into throwing just to put points on the board and play catchup – but where stats also get distorted – Tebow’s numbers were 10 completions in 21 attempts.

If Broncos aim to be successful (ie find a way to either score more or prevent blowouts), that’s the real baseline for Tebow’s passing game. A substantial increase in both attempts and completions to get to 16/17 completions in 31/32 attempts. Our defense would still be the crew that has to prevent the blowouts from happening.

by yibberat on Feb 23, 2012 5:55 PM MST up reply actions

Yibber, I'm not getting numbers mixed up we're just misunderstanding each other

Not counting the SD game, Tebow went 122 for 261 (.467%) and 1650 yards with 11 TD’s and 6 INT’s. This means his averages are as follows:

Per Game:

11 attemps, 24 completions, 150 yards, and a TD for every 11 completions and an INT for every 20 completions (or if you prefer attempts, 24 and 44 respectively)

We understand this, this is not the issue. Don’t misunderstand me. I used an arbitrary number of 400 attempts next year because it more closely mirrored what a full seasons of starts would have looked like last year. I wanted the comparison for people to see what a difference in percentages would do for output given last year’s baseline.

I think it is very possible the passing game is more an integral part of the offense, and I agree it would be preferrable to have 30-35 attempts per game, but that wasn’t my point of speculation or contention.

Overall all I wanted was to show a minimal increase per game would add up to much larger numbers over the course of a season. Which in turn is what they should be focusing on, just getting the accuracy a little bit better. It doesn’t have to be remarkably improved for Tebow or our offense to have more success next year.

If you want a GB or NO style offense, these numbers won’t wow you. But with a tough defense and a running game a small improvement goes a long ways. Realistically, this is year 2 for Tim, I have no expectations other than he improve, and again, what I examined and proposed is I think fair and realistic.

Thank you Broncos for such a fantastic year! Thank you for coming together as a TEAM! Thank you for giving us a reason to believe again! I love you guys!!!

by Bronco Mike on Feb 23, 2012 6:12 PM MST up reply actions

But the improvement you're talking about

won’t even get our passing attempts up to the second lowest passing attempts team.

Tebow – 24 attempts per game
49ers – 28 attempts per game (a run-first team w good defense)
Texans – 29 attempts per game (a run-first team w good defense)
Miami – 29 attempts per game (a defense first team with no QB)
Jags – 29 attempts per game (a defense first team with no QB)
Bears – 29 attempts per game (a defense first team with QB injuries)

Simply improving Tebow’s completion % – on the same # of attempts leaves a huge number of yards (60+) and first downs (3+) and points (??) on the table each game. Yeah teams like the 49ers and Texans can succeed – with a run-first philosophy, deep RB’s and a focus on defense. But Tebow is still going to need to increase his pass attempts – and complete them – and in particular in the situations he finds most difficult. Otherwise, we are simply going to be a team that can’t put many points on the board and punts a lot.

by yibberat on Feb 23, 2012 6:31 PM MST up reply actions

re the 49ers and Texans

they actually reduced their pass attempts per game (from the low to mid 30 per game) in 2011. In Houstons case it was because of QB injury and will return to mid-30’s if Schaub is healthy next year. In SF case, it was a combo of 2010 injuries and Smith reducing his attempted passes per game (eliminating passing situations where he made bad decisions in the past) – which is a different dynamic than Tebow is going to need (pass into more situations where he is uncomfortable and not very good)

by yibberat on Feb 23, 2012 6:49 PM MST up reply actions

Well

This isn’t a post about the Broncos tweaking their offense to have more of a passing game emphasis. This was a post about Tim Tebow correcting one aspect of his game that will improve everything else no matter what sort of philosophy or situations they put him in next year. 55% is 55% and whether you want to extrapolate that to 25, 30, 35, or more attempts per game, it doesn’t change the fact that it would me a minimal yet marked improvement over the course of a season.

Thank you Broncos for such a fantastic year! Thank you for coming together as a TEAM! Thank you for giving us a reason to believe again! I love you guys!!!

by Bronco Mike on Feb 23, 2012 7:10 PM MST up reply actions

55% is completely important

if the denominator (the attempts) is the lowest in the league – by a long way. The two teams who were successful with as few as 30 attempts per game last year had completion % of 60%.

The last team who “succeeded” (9-7 record) with 25 passing attempts per game was the 2009 Jets – with the best defense in the league, the best running game in the league, and a rookie QB with a 53% completion.

Before that the 2008 Panthers (12-4) with a top 10 D, a top 5 running offense, and a 60% completion from QB.

Before that the 2005 Steelers (11-5) with a top 5 D, a top 5 running game, and a 62% completion from QB.

Before that the 2004 Steelers (15-1) with the best D, best running, and a 66% completion from a rookie QB.

We are a long long way from best D and repeating as top 5 running could be very difficult for us. Aiming for 55% with that few attempts – with the other parts not there – will more likely mean that we end up 5-11 or something. and while that might mean “an improvement”, it won’t feel like it to fans.

by yibberat on Feb 23, 2012 7:38 PM MST up reply actions

We're good bro, I get you;)

Thank you Broncos for such a fantastic year! Thank you for coming together as a TEAM! Thank you for giving us a reason to believe again! I love you guys!!!

by Bronco Mike on Feb 23, 2012 8:24 PM MST up reply actions

32 attempts per game at .555% breaks down like this:

284 for 512 3841 yards, 26TD’s and 14 INT’s. That would be a good year for Tebow and our offense.

Thank you Broncos for such a fantastic year! Thank you for coming together as a TEAM! Thank you for giving us a reason to believe again! I love you guys!!!

by Bronco Mike on Feb 23, 2012 8:38 PM MST up reply actions

The extra attempts

will likely be shorter passes rather than the passes he threw this year extrapolated for a full season and higher completions.

To give the situational example. Third down and 6-10 yards. It happens 4-8 times per game. A team has to convert those pretty regularly to sustain drives. But that is long enough to mean pass even for dual-threat QB’s. Not a deep bomb for a TD but a pure dinkdunk. Just get those 6-10 yards and you get three more plays. Fail and you lose the ball. There is little to no leeway for a QB learning curve here. One of the dual threat guys below is a rookie and its not Tebow.

Vick – 26 completed of 46 attempts for 325 yards (56.5% completion rate and 7.1 yards/attempt). 3 TD’s, 2 Int’s, 1 fumble (recovered). He ran 6 times for 75 yards (12.5 yards/attempt). He passed nearly 90% of the time in these situations – but his yards/attempt (nearly enough to get the 1st down) with passing kept defenses honest – which helped his running threat in those situations. So Philly can convert roughly 100% of his running plays and most of his completed passes into 1st downs. That’s 30 or so 1st downs per year for a 58% (30/52) conversion rate.

Newton – 25 completions of 42 attempts for 353 yards (59.5% completion rate and 8.4 yards/attempt). 3TD’s, 3 Int, no fumbles. He ran 14 times for 136 yards (9.71 yards/attempt). So he passed 75% of the time – but like Vick his passing yards/attempt and his completion % kept defenses honest. So give him 39 or so 1st downs for a 62% (39/56) 3rd down conversion rate.

Tebow – 15 completions of 39 attempts for 181 yards (38.5% completion and 4.6 yards/attempt). 3 TD, 1 Int, 1 fumble (recovered). He ran 14 times for 73 yards (5.21 yards/attempt). He passed a bit less than 75% of the time. But his failure to complete passes and his yards/attempt falling way short of what’s needed to get 1st down meant that his running suffered as well – and his deeper passing threats too. He’s not a dual threat in this situation at all. He’s a pushover. For him, this means about 20 first downs for a 38% (20/53) 3rd down conversion rate. And if you extrapolate the numbers out to a full season, we will face this situation more often than Vick/Newton precisely because Tebow is not a dinkdunk passer.

Unfortunately these are precisely the passing situations where he is going to have to throw fast into tight windows and risk short interceptions (which are the ones that tend to get returned for TD’s). And he needs to complete a lot more passes (from 15 to 24 or so + extrapolating to a full season). That’s nearly half of your 2 needed completions – just for this particular situation.

by yibberat on Feb 23, 2012 10:59 PM MST up reply actions

one thing

is that the expectations of improvement can also change depending on what kind of incompletions the quarterback was throwing before the improvement.

For instance, a quarterback with a poor completion percentage, but with experience in a pro-style passing offense. They might have experience with dropbacks and footwork, and are just missing because of poor mental aim. In other words, the ball is going where they want it to go, but they’re actually aiming for the wrong place.

A quarterback with less experience in a pro-style passing offense might very well have good mental aim, but poor technique. Improvements in footwork and dropback skills could create rapid improvement in completion percentage.

I think that with Tebow, and spread quarterbacks in general, you’re going to see poor technique at first. Correct that, and you might find a quarterback with excellent mental accuracy. You also might not – but anyway, it’s definitely possible that a quarterback with simple technique deficits could see improvement that is far beyond what you’d expect, judging from the historical record.

by tunesmith on Feb 23, 2012 3:01 PM MST reply actions

I agree, I think....

Part of what makes TT interesting is that because he was so bad, the opportunity for significant improvement outcomes even from modest improvements in technique/process are large.

TT’s greatest strength is/was that the game wasn’t “too big” for him. It is the same quality Big Ben and Tom Brady had in their inaugural seasons. It is a quality that actually is pretty rare for young QBs, so its something to keep an eye on.

That said, his technique and flaws are way beyond the typical too… he has 2 decades of bad mechanics ingrained in his muscle memory, and there is no telling if he will ever be able to shake it enough to have consistent success at the NFL level. This is why many of us thought a full season of TT backing up and practicing his mechanics without the pressure of performing in games would’ve been a better outcome for his long-term success.

Obviously, Orton’s failures meant we didn’t have that luxary… but TT did regress in his mechanics, and once again is back to the starting line this offseason in trying to improve footwork and form, which are a large determinant of consistency. A big part of the reason TT had the occasional inaccurate ball was because his mechanics were bad. Better mechanics probably would give a big chunck of those 2-5 extra completions per game he’ll need to be successful long-term.

Getting playing time last year helped move TT ahead in reading defenses, establishing himself with the team, etc…. its not all bad by any stretch, and as a fan, the playoffs were great. TT can also improve by learning to get the ball out quicker (he takes way too many sacks which lead to way too many fumbles), and alternatively not being quite so anxious to run when things break down (he actually showed some of this improvement as the year went on, and it hurt his completion and sack percentage cominsurately).

But while I agree on TT’s ability to improve… I’m perhaps not as sure as you that fixing the physical aim is any easier to fix than the mental. Both can be problems and both can improve…. but by playing him in 2011, we probably helped him with improving th mental, but may have set him back in improving the physical.

Too many variables to predict… so I’ll just watch and enjoy the show…. and celebrate or call for his head according to how it plays out.

by cjfarls on Feb 24, 2012 12:30 PM MST up reply actions