Oh, the Irony!

But I’m glad the Burfict picks makes you happy.

Before this whole process started, Donte Paige-Moss was considered a 1st round prospect. I’m not sure why he fell though??? He is one of many North Carolina Tarheels, under Butch Davis, that have great talent and NFL potential.

Obviously, we disagree.

I think there are several potential reasons for our disagreement. But the primary source orients around Miller. To me, there’s not a wide gap between Miller and Richardson. For you, there must be.

On my Big Board, I have Trent Richardson at 6 and Lamar Miller at 10. And then Doug Martin at 37. So it follows, that if Trent Richardson is the greatest running back prospect to hit the draft since AP, then Lamar Miller’s in that conversation. At least, according to me.

I realize this view differs from the mainstream and I’m okay with that. I think I’ll be proven right in the end. Back when Knowshon Moreno came out, I was largely on my own when I said he couldn’t play. People said I didn’t know what I was talking about. Some of the arguments grew heated. Even the venerable Jeremy Bolander, who you might not know but he’s an institution around here, said that I was wrong and that Knowshon would be “special.” I’m not slamming Jeremy. My point is the common view on Knowshon was dead wrong. And the rare view (mine) was right.

Another possible reason for our disagreement concerns your belief that the move toward running-backs-by-committee stems from a change in philosophy rather than it arising as consequence of a prolonged talent vacuum. Just as entire drafts come and go without an elite franchise quarterback being available, entire drafts can come and go without an elite franchise running back being available. This draft happens to have two elite franchise quarterbacks and it also happens to have two elite franchise running backs.

Mark Ingram was a reach at 28. He’s not elite now and he wasn’t last February. Beanie Wells wasn’t elite. Knowshon Moreno wasn’t elite. Chris Johnson is elite. And they don’t run RBBC in Tennessee.

I’m convinced of Lamar Miller’s talent. It’s elite. Barring some serious injury, he’s going to be special. A few years from now, we’ll talk about Lamar Miller in the same sentence with AP and Chris Johnson.

Remember, Burfict ended up with us.

…what might have been.

Fletcher Cox went 34th to Indy. But if Pitt had selected Poe (again, a limitation of my simulator), then that would have meant Brockers probably would have fell to Indy. And then Fletcher Cox probably would have gone to Carolina at 40.

As I said, my simulator doesn’t differentiate between DTs and NTs; so I think Pittsburgh drafts Dontari Poe there. I just have Brockers rated higher than Poe, which is why he showed up there.

That said, since my Big Board has Miller at 10 and Brockers at 15, I think we should take Miller.
I’ve got Kendall Reyes at 30.

I have Blackmon ranked much lower than most. I have Michael Floyd, Blackmon and Kendall Wright at 17, 18 and 19 on my board. I don’t believe there’s an elite receiver in this draft. To me, the top 6 receivers will all be good and long-term contributors. But there’s not an A.J. Green or Julio Jones available in this draft.

…to write something you’d utterly despise. When I wrote it, I was hoping you’d vomit in your mouth. Did I succeed?

To me, Miller’s looked like the best player on the field in every game I’ve seen him play.

But part of being a RB in the NFL is being durable. Moreno is not durable. You can’t tie up a roster spot and salary on a player who gets hurt every year. This is why Ryan Harris was cut last year. We brought him back at a reduced salary to see if he can stay healthy and contribute. This is why McBath got released. He had talent, but he got hurt every year. This is why the Colts got rid of Bob Sanders. San Diego picked him up and he got hurt again. Some guys are just injury prone. You can’t just blindly hope they are going to somehow overcome their track record.

The same is true in reverse. Some guys just don’t get hurt. London Fletcher has played almost every snap of his NFL career, at MLB no less, without ever getting hurt.

I don’t think Moreno will be on this team unless he restructures his deal.

Would you like to see him play for the Broncos?

Tampa, the Jets and Cincinnati. As I said in the post, before I subordinated Cincy’s RB need, they kept drafting Lamar Miller.

I think you could also make an argument that the Steelers could use a runningback. But over on BTSC, they seem to think the highest priorities are guard and noseguard. They also need to potentially replace Mike Wallace.

If the actual personnel departments view Miller as I do, we might need to trade up to get him. I think Chicago might be a team who might be in the market to trade down.

That way, we can target the best available defender with pick 25. My bet is on a pass rusher… edge or interior.

It took me quite a while to build it. I kept having issues with iterative calculations. The team needs change based on who the team’s already drafted and then there’s a need amplifier that changes changed based on scarcity at certain positions. It complicated things, but ultimately I figured out a way to do it.

It was fun to build. I kept enhancing it as I came up with more ideas. Early on, it was too need based. It would spit out drafts with Denver drafting four quarterbacks. So it took me a while to balance needs and BPA.

I’m not high on Burfict at all. But I guess I’d be willing to take a flyer on him in the fourth. After all, Shanahan was willing to take a flyer on Clarett earlier than that. I like Reyes alot. I was surprised when he fell to us.

I don’t know much about Johnson. I seem to remember reading he was a big, physical guy. Maybe he could be the Gronk-killer.

Regarding FA, I think others have a better understanding of the available FAs than I do. In terms of the positions, I believe we need to address FS in FA, because it’s so rare for a rookie to come in and thrive. And we need immediate help there. One of the things that disturbed me about my team need assessment was how many teams will be competing for many of the same FAs that we covet. This is especially so with free safeties. And almost every SB site’s fans say they want Brandon Carr.

I was also surprised to learn how many veteran C’s are expected to be released from their teams. I don’t know if they’ll just resign at a lower rate or what. But I wouldn’t mind it if we brought in a center to compete with Walton.

I was surprised the simulator spit out an SS. I’m hoping Quentin Carter emerges, so I ranked that as a low priority for us – I’m hoping we’ll draft some OL depth.

I wish I could take credit for the picks beyond Miller. The rest is actually quite plausible based on my BB and the team needs.

One caveat: I don’t rate Burfict very highly at all (in fact, I have Kuechly, Hightower and Burfict rated lower than most draftniks). If I’m off the mark in my evaluation, then it’s likely Burfict will go earlier than the fourth.

It’s kind of funny: Over on BTSC – the Steeler’s SB fan site – the crowd there wants to cut ties with one of their starting guards who apparently committed a lot of impulse control penalties (I think the guy’s name was Kemoatou). But then many of those same people want the Steelers to select Burfict.

I don’t know anything about Paige-Moss, but a few commenters seem excited about his potential. Since he was a 7th rounder that sounds okay to me.

But I recognize my view on Miller is atypical. However, I think the perceived gap between Richardson and Miller will narrow as we approach April’s draft.

Regarding some of the comparisons you mentioned – I think comparing him to Jamal Charles undervaluing Miller’s skill a bit.

Regarding the comments you’ve heard about him running upright. I haven’t noticed this much at all. He’s got a great forward lean that seems quite natural. And he “makes himself small” really well. In fact, when he makes himself small in the hole, he really reminds me of TD. I have seen him run upright when he’s running wide, which wasn’t very common. If the field was open, he’d kick into high gear; but if he had to string it out and select his hole and cut behind it, then he might run upright occasionally.

But, yeah I think he’s the pick.

No, I don’t think Miller will be the pick. I don’t think Miller will be there when we pick at #25.

I think there are 9 elite players in this draft:
Luck
Griffin
Kalil
Claiborne
Richardson
Zach Brown
Lamar Miller
DeCastro

I’m contemplating moving Zach Brown further down my board (currently, he’s at #9). I put him that high for two reasons. First, I thought Von Miller’s success as a rookie might bolster Brown’s draft stock (some sort of similarity confusion bias). And I thought the success of NE’s tight ends might raise the value of any potential Gronkryptonite, with Brown being the preeminent specimen.

Since then, I’ve read he a below-average (borderline inadequate) tackler.

I’m pleased with the way it turned out, even though I’m not very familiar with some of the players.

I’ve heard some good things about Johnson too.

Martin will be a good back for many years in the league. And I believe he could be the lead back in a committee approach.

For me, I think when you get a crack at an elite playmaker you take it. That might have been what EFX decided last year when trying to decide between Von Miller and Marcel Dareus. It’s both rare and difficult for DTs to be “playmakers.” I think had they had to choose between Von Miller and Suh, we might have a different playmaker on defense.

Of course, there’s always the question of whether Lamar Miller will end up being an elite playmaker. I guess that’s the bet I’m willing to make.

Most often, it gave us Fletcher Cox because the Steelers kept drafting Brockers. In those simulations, I seem to remember us drafting Doug Martin at #57. I kind of liked those simulations because they also gave us B.J. Coleman in the fifth or sixth. But for me, I wanted Lamar Miller badly enough that I was able to work it out.

If my Big Board even remotely resembles that of the pros come April, then I believe we’ll have a crack at either Cox or Brockers at #25. I think that’s just the way the board will break.

You might notice that my first round differs from most in that it’s missing Luke Kuechly. If my read on him is wrong and he’s drafted in the first, that will only increase the likelihood that Cox or Brockers will be available. Also, you’ll notice the first round doesn’t include Devon Still, someone I’m not as high on as others. For those who want Cox, Brockers or Still at #25, I think at least one of them will be available.

You should check out the comment I made right above yours in response to hcubed’s question.

Most of the simulations executed when Cincy was choosing Lamar Miller spat out Fletcher Cox for us. And many of them spit out B.J. Coleman too. I like him as well.

I have to say, it’s a fun toy.

To me, Miller’s better. But if you like Brockers more, then you’d make that move. And incidentally, as I’ve said about the Pitt’s pick, I don’t think they’d actually take Brockers, they’d take either Poe or Ta’amu. So that would mean Brockers would fall to us.

A lot of undrafted RBs are very successful.

I don’t know if I’d say “a lot” but you’re right that a few undrafted RBs have been very successful. I guess it depends on how you define “very successful.”

But it all boils down to how you value Miller. To me, Miller represents an elite enough talent that it makes more sense to consider this in terms of “elite players” rather than “running backs.” If I can get an “elite talent” at any position (aside from kicker or punter) in the first round, then I’d do it.

Conversely, if you believe Miller will be a run-of-the-mill, but competent, running back, you’d be correct.

I don’t know much about Trumain Johnson other than what I’ve read. So…you might be right. As for Burfict, I don’t want him either. I was bummed when the simulator dumped him out like a turd.

Why in your opinion is he a terrible prospect? Seriously, you really know of Trumain from the Big Sky conference and have evaluated him? I have watched every single game he played in for Montana. He is a great CB.

Yeah, we’ve been on this journey together. So I expected you’d be happy. Glad to hear I delivered.

And I haven’t tried to hide anything. If someone doesn’t know that I think Lamar Miller is special and that I want him on the Broncos, then they’re either new to this site or they’ve been ignoring my rants (which is understandable since I’m long-winded and self-absorbed).

In my post, I said I tweaked Cincy’s needs to reflect what the Bengal fans believed to be the team’s biggest offseason priorities. It turns out that my assumption that running back was their top priority was a misunderstanding on my part. The tweak corrected that.

If you have a problem with the results, then it’s not the simulator or the team needs. It means you have a problem with my Big Board. And that’s fine. This is all a matter of opinion right now.

So here’s a bit more info about my Big Board. As a starting point, I used CBS’ Big Board. I chose CBS’ because they update it regularly and it was easy to extract.

From there, I only changed the grades for about 50 players…only players that I felt I had reason to change. Sometimes this was based on my own evaluation, such as raising Lamar Miller’s grade and lowering Justin Blackmon’s grade. Or if you said Joe Schmoe was going to surprise some people and I had no opinion or awareness of Joe Schmoe, then I’d raise the grade for Joe Schmoe.

I also created a distribution of grades that was loosely based on the wizard over at Draftmetric’s “value groups.”

Other than that, I didn’t change the grades much.

But Digger, how is what I did any different than what anyone does when they submit a mock? When you submit a mock, you’re drafting based on your perceptions of players. By definition a mock is a mock is a mock. There’s always agendas and hopes in place.

I think a limitation of most mocks is they fail to consider what other teams plan to do. They believe that Bronco fans are the only ones who want Mike Martin. Or, they think they’re the only ones who want Lamar Miller. There’s a thread over on Cincy Jungle right now that’s all about Lamar Miller – they want him there too.

Everyone’s got hopes at this stage of the game. I think Nick Cast got a firsthand view of that during MTD’s live mock. Agendas knock heads, but who ever drafts the earliest wins.

Now you might disagree with my assessment of the Broncos’ needs. But again, that’s just an opinion. For me, I said the Broncos two top offseason priorities were running back and defensive tackle (both have a multiplier of 8 out of a possible 10). The next highest was cornerback at 7 out of 10.

In your view, you might say DT should be a 9 or 10 and running back should be a 6 or 7. And that’s cool too. The problem is IT"S MY TOY!

Sardonic grin.

I think that if Miller’s gone at #24, then we need to go DT.

Konz going so early was a function of high demand/low supply. Before doing this exercise, I’d never before understood why some smart NFL people reach so wildly at certain positions. I think they do it because there are only so many players available and they know others need to improve at that position too.

Other positions of frequent reaching included the safety positions – again, high demand/low supply. The biggest reach in this draft was Washington’s 7th round selection of SS Lance Mitchell out of Oregon State. That was at pick #197, but Lance Mitchell was 370 on my Big Board. Again, it was a situation where Washington needed to add some depth, so they drafted the best available SS.

I have a feeling Blackmon’s going to slide between now and April.

Thanks for reading. I’m glad you enjoyed it.

But it’d be such a long post. I’d feel obligated to explain how the simulator works and stuff. And most of those pricks wouldn’t even read my explanation, they’d just skip right to the draft. And then I’d just end up repeating myself again and again and again.

I wonder if I can post it in the comments here…I don’t know if comments can receive tables.

Rd. Pk. TEAM PLAYER POS. SCHOOL
2 33 STL Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
2 34 IND Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State
2 35 MIN George Iloka FS Boise State
2 36 TBB Luke Kuechly ILB Boston College
2 37 CLE Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State
2 38 JAX Marvin Jones WR California
2 39 WAS Leonard Johnson CB Iowa State
2 40 CAR Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State
2 41 BUF Lavonte David OLB Nebraska
2 42 MIA Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State
2 43 SEA Doug Martin RB Boise State
2 44 KCC Dontari Poe DT Memphis
2 45 DAL Kelechi Osemele OG Iowa State
2 46 PHI Dont’a Hightower ILB Alabama
2 47 NYJ Malik Jackson DE Tennessee
2 48 NEP Ben Jones C Georgia
2 49 SDC Harrison Smith SS Notre Dame
2 50 CHI Kevin Zeitler OG Wisconsin
2 51 PHI Joe Adams WR Arkansas
2 52 TEN Amini Silatolu OG Midwestern State
2 53 CIN David Wilson RB Virginia Tech
2 54 DET Senio Kelemete OG Washington
2 55 ATL Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois
2 56 PIT Jerry Franklin ILB Arkansas
2 57 DEN Kendall Reyes DT Connecticut
2 58 HOU Brandon Thompson DT Clemson
2 59 NOS Ronnell Lewis OLB Oklahoma
2 60 GBP Sean Spence OLB Miami (Fla.)
2 61 BAL Audie Cole ILB North Carolina State
2 62 SFN Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina
2 63 NEP Chase Minnifield CB Virginia
2 64 NYG Orson Charles TE Georgia

Rd. Pk. TEAM PLAYER POS. SCHOOL
3 65 IND Jonathan Massaquoi OLB Troy
3 66 STL Rueben Randle WR LSU
3 67 MIN Antonio Allen SS South Carolina
3 68 CLE Shea McClellin OLB Boise State
3 69 TBB Tommy Streeter WR Miami (Fla.)
3 70 WAS Bobby Massie OT Mississippi
3 71 JAX Mitchell Schwartz OT California
3 72 BUF Coty Sensabaugh CB Clemson
3 73 MIA Chandler Jones DE Syracuse
3 74 CHI Michael Brewster C Ohio State
3 75 KCC Kirk Cousins QB Michigan State
3 76 SEA Josh Norman CB Coastal Carolina
3 77 PHI Devon Still DT Penn State
3 78 NYJ Travis Lewis OLB Oklahoma
3 79 SDC Brandon Boykin CB Georgia
3 80 CHI Chris Givens WR Wake Forest
3 81 ARI Matt McCants OT UAB
3 82 DAL Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska
3 83 TEN Markelle Martin FS Oklahoma State
3 84 CIN Brandon Mosley OT Auburn
3 85 ATL Tony Bergstrom OT Utah
3 86 DET James-Michael Johnson ILB Nevada
3 87 PIT Nick Toon WR Wisconsin
3 88 DEN Trumaine Johnson CB Montana
3 89 HOU Billy Winn DE Boise State
3 90 NOS James Brown OT Troy
3 91 GBP Brandon Brooks OG Miami (Ohio)
3 92 BAL Philip Blake C Baylor
3 93 SFN Josh Kaddu OLB Oregon
3 94 NEP Juron Criner WR Arizona
3 95 NYG Cam Johnson DE Virginia

Rd. Pk. TEAM PLAYER POS. SCHOOL
4 96 STL Jayron Hosley CB Virginia Tech
4 97 IND Marvin McNutt WR Iowa
4 98 MIN Jeff Allen OT Illinois
4 99 PHI Nick Foles QB Arizona
4 100 CLE Trevor Guyton DE California
4 101 JAX Ryan Steed CB Furman
4 102 WAS Mychal Kendricks ILB California
4 103 MIA Nigel Bradham OLB Florida State
4 104 CAR Mike Martin DT Michigan
4 105 BUF Dwight Jones WR North Carolina
4 106 SEA Tyrone Crawford DE Boise State
4 107 KCC Coby Fleener TE Stanford
4 108 NYJ Aaron Henry FS Wisconsin
4 109 WAS Brian Quick WR Appalachian State
4 110 SDC Nate Potter OT Boise State
4 111 CHI Jamell Fleming CB Oklahoma
4 112 ARI Quentin Saulsberry C Mississippi State
4 113 DAL Duke Ihenacho SS San Jose State
4 114 PHI Lucas Nix OG Pittsburgh
4 115 TEN David Molk C Michigan
4 116 CIN Janzen Jackson FS McNeese State
4 117 DET Bruce Irvin OLB West Virginia
4 118 CLE DeQuan Menzie CB Alabama
4 119 PIT Trenton Robinson FS Michigan State
4 120 DEN Vontaze Burfict ILB Arizona State
4 121 HOU Eddie Whitley FS Virginia Tech
4 122 NOS Mohamed Sanu WR Rutgers
4 123 GBP Shaun Prater CB Iowa
4 124 BUF Rishaw Johnson OG California (PA)
4 125 SFN B.J. Coleman QB Chattanooga
4 126 NEP Terrell Manning OLB North Carolina State
4 127 NYG Robert Turbin RB Utah State

Rd. Pk. TEAM PLAYER POS. SCHOOL
5 128 IND Dwight Bentley CB La.-Lafayette
5 129 DEN Brandon Taylor SS LSU
5 130 MIN Nicolas Jean-Baptiste DT Baylor
5 131 CLE Ronnie Hillman RB San Diego State
5 132 TBB Coryell Judie CB Texas A&M
5 133 WAS Desmond Wynn OG Rutgers
5 134 JAX Tramain Thomas FS Arkansas
5 135 CAR Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati
5 136 BUF Matt Reynolds OT Brigham Young
5 137 MIA Cliff Harris CB Oregon
5 138 KCC Bernard Pierce RB Temple
5 139 SEA Marcus Forston DT Miami (Fla.)
5 140 OAK Jake Bequette DE Arkansas
5 141 SDC Garth Gerhart C Arizona State
5 142 CHI Tysyn Hartman FS Kansas State
5 143 ARI Jack Crawford DE Penn State
5 144 DAL Olivier Vernon DE Miami (Fla.)
5 145 PHI Evan Rodriguez FB Temple
5 146 NYJ Markus Zusevics OT Iowa
5 147 TEN T.Y. Hilton WR Florida International
5 148 CIN Matt Daniels SS Duke
5 149 ATL DaJohn Harris DT Southern California
5 150 DET LaMichael James RB Oregon
5 151 PIT G.J. Kinne QB Tulsa
5 152 DEN Ryan Lindley QB San Diego State
5 153 HOU Sean Cattouse SS California
5 154 NOS Charles Mitchell SS Mississippi State
5 155 GBP Tom Compton OT South Dakota
5 156 BAL Andrew Datko OT Florida State
5 157 SFN Ryan Miller OG Colorado
5 158 NEP Damien Jackson FS Mississippi
5 159 NYG Lamar Holmes OT Southern Mississippi

Rd. Pk. TEAM PLAYER POS. SCHOOL
7 192 IND William Vlachos C Alabama
7 193 STL Brandon Hardin FS Oregon State
7 194 MIN Derek Dennis OG Temple
7 195 CLE Antoine McClain OG Clemson
7 196 TBB Kyle Wilber OLB Wake Forest
7 197 WAS Lance Mitchell SS Oregon State
7 198 JAX Kheeston Randall DT Texas
7 199 MIA Brett Roy DT Nevada
7 200 CAR Tauren Poole RB Tennessee
7 201 BUF Chandler Harnish QB Northern Illinois
7 202 KCC Blake Gideon FS Texas
7 203 SEA Jarius Wright WR Arkansas
7 204 CHI Chris Polk RB Washington
7 205 ARI Jeff Fuller WR Texas A&M
7 206 DAL Kellen Moore QB Boise State
7 207 MIN Adrien Cole ILB Louisiana Tech
7 208 NYJ Hebron Fangupo DT Brigham Young
7 209 SEA Michael Egnew TE Missouri
7 210 SDC Deangelo Peterson TE LSU
7 211 TEN Casey Hayward CB Vanderbilt
7 212 CIN Dan Herron RB Ohio State
7 213 ATL Scott Wedige C Northern Illinois
7 214 DET Rishard Matthews WR Nevada
7 215 PIT Levy Adcock OT Oklahoma State
7 216 DEN Donte Paige-Moss DE North Carolina
7 217 HOU Joe Looney OG Wake Forest
7 218 NOS Akiem Hicks DT Regina
7 219 GBP Corey Mosley FS Virginia
7 220 BAL Corey White SS Samford
7 221 SFN Julian Miller DE West Virginia
7 222 MIN Emmanuel Acho OLB Texas
7 223 NYG D.J. Holt ILB California

Tables in comments aren’t the best; but I hope you can sift through it.

Prior to this thread, I wasn’t even aware of the kid. But your memory is consistent with the excitement/warnings that others have mentioned here.

Well, “manipulate” might be the wrong word too. I used my own Big Board, but the team needs are completely defensible. If there’s a way to make the team needs more objective, then I’m unaware of it. As I said above, I didn’t let my desires get in the way of ranking team needs (except the Broncos’ needs – and that’s because we all think we know what is best for our team).

Just for fun, I ran the simulator again. This time, I used CBS’ Big Board without any grade modification (isn’t “modification” better than “manipulation”?). Here’s what it spit out for us and for the first round:

Rd. Pk. TEAM PLAYER Pos. SCHOOL
1 25 DEN Devon Still DT Penn State
2 57 DEN Doug Martin RB Boise State
3 88 DEN Cam Johnson DE Virginia
4 120 DEN Coryell Judie CB Texas A&M
5 129 DEN Ryan Lindley QB San Diego State
5 152 DEN Jerry Franklin ILB Arkansas
7 216 DEN Sean Baker FS Ball State

1 1 IND Andrew Luck QB Stanford
1 2 STL Matt Kalil OT Southern California
1 3 MIN Morris Claiborne CB LSU
1 4 CLE Riley Reiff OT Iowa
1 5 TBB Trent Richardson RB Alabama
1 6 WAS Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
1 7 JAX Quinton Coples DE North Carolina
1 8 CAR Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
1 9 MIA Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M
1 10 BUF Nick Perry DE Southern California
1 11 KCC Jonathan Martin OT Stanford
1 12 SEA Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
1 13 ARI Mike Adams OT Ohio State
1 14 DAL David DeCastro OG Stanford
1 15 PHI Luke Kuechly ILB Boston College
1 16 NYJ Melvin Ingram OLB South Carolina
1 17 CIN Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama
1 18 SDC Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama
1 19 CHI Cordy Glenn OG Georgia
1 20 TEN Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois
1 21 CIN Brandon Washington OG Miami (Fla.)
1 22 CLE Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame
1 23 DET Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska
1 24 PIT Michael Brockers DT LSU
1 25 DEN Devon Still DT Penn State
1 26 HOU Kendall Wright WR Baylor
1 27 NEP Peter Konz C Wisconsin
1 28 GBP Andre Branch DE Clemson
1 29 BAL Dont’a Hightower ILB Alabama
1 30 SFN Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina
1 31 NEP Jared Crick DE Nebraska
1 32 NYG Zach Brown OLB North Carolina

I wouldn’t mind that draft at all. I’m not a fan of Devon Still, but since the Steelers would probably go NT ahead of us rather than Brockers, that would mean Brockers would fall to us. I could live with that.

…I was on the can, taking a Burfict.

Not sure if the incremental value of a player is weighed up against the team need in your simulation?

That’s exactly right. I have OT ranked as the highest need for the Browns. But QB is up there too. And in terms of positional modifiers, OT has the highest modifier from a supply/demand perspective.

Or maybe you just don’t rate Griffin that high?!?

This isn’t my board; it’s CBS’s’s’s. I didn’t modify if for the mock I included in this conversation.

This combination of need modifiers allowed Reiff’s talent deficiency to overtake RGIII. But the thing is, you clearly believe that RGIII is much better than Reiff. So much so, that you think if RGIII is available, he should be taken at any cost. The simulator allows you to tweak it to reflect that belief.

I just didn’t do any tweaking for this simulation. I wanted it to be as clean as possible.

In building this thing, my approach was, there are only four variables I can evaluate:

The Big Board
The Draft Order
Team Needs
Team’s Draft Philosophy

As I worked through this, it became evident that the biggest question was how might a team weigh need versus the talent of the best available player. And that’s the secret sauce.

Regarding Poe vs. Brockers, Brockers would make a good 5-technique. But over on BTSC, they claim that they’re set at the ends and that NT is their primary offseason draft need (guard is high too, but they think they should address that through FA). It’s interesting, because so much has been made about the Steelers always going BPA. To read BTSC, that’s not the case.

That is my beliefs as well. good to know I am not one of a kind.

According to my team need assessment. In one of the earlier iterations of the simulator, two CBs went in the top 5 – Claiborne to the Vikings and Jenkins to the Bucs.

I think one of the interesting subplots the could emerge on draft day is whether the Bucs select Richardson to augment Blount or if they trade down and go cornerback. I think most people would say that Kirkpatrick at #5 would be a reach. And he is on talent alone; but maybe not when you start to consider the high demand and low supply.