One of the hottest debated topics of last season had to do with the play calling. Actually this has been a topic that has been in contention since 2008 up till today. For example in 2009 fans were upset the offense didn't take enough passes downfield so in 2010 the Broncos ranked in the top 5 in passes beyond 20 yards. In 2011 both opinions were heard, early on fans wanted a deeper passing game rather than just running the ball but around the mid season mark fans wanted less deep passes, fans were upset the offense went deep too often, calling for more screen, shovel and slant passes. Who knows what changes will take place to the offense this off-season, though I have made my personal thoughts known on the topic. The biggest issue though about this is sometimes fans just react to what they see in one part of the field, and since the game happens at such a fast pace, it's hard for those who don't TiVo it or have NFL Rewind to get a clear picture of the play calling. There were a number of trains of thoughts that went around including, but not limited to:
- "Broncos don't pass enough on 1st down"
- "McCoy won't take shots downfield"
- "Why doesn't McCoy put a safety net in to help Tebow under pressure"
- "We are running too much"
- "We need to do easier, shorter passes to move down the field"
- "We aren't using multiple wide receiver sets enough to create mismatches"
Now some of these have more bearing than others, and I'll be the first to say there were issues with the play calling this, both before and after Tebow took over, but I would like to take a more detailed look at the Broncos offensive play calling this season to see if we can't clear a few things up. This will be the first part in a three part series looking at the Broncos offense.
Today though we will be looking at one of the three aspects of the Broncos play calling:
- The Broncos offense compared to previous years
- Reviewing each drive, down and yard situation
- The Broncos offensive packages
Let's get this thing rolling.
A Broncos Offensive History:
I talked about this topic back before the season started, but after this season, it's important to review. This section will deal with how the Broncos moved the ball, how often they did it, and the ratio between running and passing plays. Let's begin with the table, it will list each coach, broken down by season, and look at: passing and rushing attempts, passing and rushing yards, and a ratios between rushing and passing attempts and a ratio dealing with rushing and passing yards. For example, in 1983, Reeves the was the head coach, we passed the ball 499 times and ran it 471 times, so we have a ratio of 1.06 passes per run. But another factor recorded here is the yards, we had 3466 passing yards and 1784 rushing yards, so that would be a ratio of 1.94 passing yards to 1 rushing yard. That means that passing was 94% more often used to move the ball than running was that season. Whereas in 2003, the team had a yardage ratio of 1.13 passing yards to 1 rushing yard, a more even balance of moving the ball.
By having these two ratios we can see how often they attempted to run or pass the ball, and how often they succeeded doing one or the other. We are also able to see who successful each aspect of the offense was under a head coach or for a given year by yards per attempt for passing and rushing. For example the best passing season would likely be 1995 because of a high yards, TD's and yards per attempt whereas the worst would be 2011. The best rushing season would likely be 1998, 2000, or 2011 and the worst could be 1994. From this we can see what aspect of the offense was working and possibly why the play calling went a certain way.
I realize it's a bit complicated, but it makes sense once we get to the table:
We'll be looking at this in two parts:
- Play calling and yards per attempt
|Year||Pass attps.||Pass yards||Pass YPA||Rush attps.||Rush yards||Rush YPA||Ratio yards (pass/rush)||Ratio attps. (pass/rush)|
This next table will look at how the team scored. It will cover how many passing and rushing touchdowns there were that season, and will look at how often either scored on a passing or rushing attempt. By examining the past this way, we can see how often the team tried scoring passing or running the ball, and if they were a goal line rushing or passing team.
For example, 1983, we had 17 passing touchdowns and 15 rushing touchdowns, that's a ratio of 1.13 passing touchdowns for every rushing touchdown. Now another key statistic here is the ratio of touchdown per attempt, which is converted into a percentage. In 1983, for every passing attempt, we had a 3.41% chance of scoring a touchdown, and for every rushing attempt, we had a 3.18% chance of scoring. Now in 2002, it was flipped with the running attack having a better chance to score then the passing offense.
Now obviously there are other factors at play here, but it gives one a feel for how each season went and what parts of the team ran effectively.
|Year||Passing TD's||Passing TD's/attp||Rushing TD's||Rushing TD's/attp||Passing TD's/Rushing TD ratio|
Let's take 1994 and 2011 as two examples. In 1994 Wade Phillips was the coach and really didn't have a talented running back, I mean who would consider Leonard Russell a real long term running back. So his main offensive weapon was John Elway and because he knew John Elway could succeed whereas Russell wasn't reliable he let John Elway throw more than at any other time in Elway's career. As a coach he knew what his team did well (passing) and didn't force it to be something that it wasn't (rushing). 2011 was the opposite, at no time during the Broncos history since Reeves took over have the Broncos ran this much in terms of a ratio to pass plays. But when John Fox came in, he knew had a better running team than a passing one, and with that being his preference he built along those lines by bringing in a quality running back in Willis McGahee. While in the first five games, Orton was very up and down, and was benched and Tim Tebow came in. Now having seen more of Tebow than anyone else, they decided that they had more talent in the run game than in the pass game, and if we look at the results and play calling we can see that. Now many argued that would be a mistake, but after looking at the season and comparing to those of the past, no Broncos passing game has been this bad, ever, so it's only logical for Fox to make the Broncos into a run team, just like it made sense for Phillips.
Something else to note is that a large percentage of the Broncos touchdowns came on long plays. Of the Broncos 20 passing touchdowns 11 were 20 or more yards and 6 were 30 or more yards and 4 were 50 or more yards, the Broncos passing offense scored big or didn't score at all, leading the league in big play (20+ yards) passing touchdowns of total passing touchdowns, but once the offense got into the redzone, both the run and pass struggled. Of the 20 passing touchdowns only 8 came in the redzone, that's a bad sign.
This past season was one of the most oddly focused offenses, but when you think of the big picture, this team was clearly built to run, and the results agree with it, and this mindset lent to a team that went 8-8 and went to the playoffs. While I do expect their to be more of a passing game next season, I do expect us to see continued focus on the run game, it suits the team, it suits Fox and it plays to Tebow's strengths and the Chunk Offense.
But as we'll discuss in the next article, we'll look at the Broncos play calling situation by situation and go more indepth.