FanPost

Follow-up research to "If you don't like Brockers, Cox, etc."


Well, I'm not quite done the reseach I was doing to Agent Jerry Fletcher's question (and a couple of other MHR members) regarding how Pat Kirwan's Explosion Number and Production Ratio stand up against defensive line personnel that have been in the league awhile. I posted Who do you pick if you don't like Brockers, Cox, Still, or Worthy? to ask the aformentioned question and got a lot of others that had the same question I did, which was is how likely is a prospect to succeed can be based on his Explosion Number?

I really ran out of time on this project. I have to be back in camp tonight (about 250km or 150 miles away) for another 15 day stint and my 6 days off are over. So I am going to share the results I have so far and draw some quick conclusions.

I didn't have nearly the time to do this, I had to skip a lot of guys that were on my list out of deference to time, and I couldn't find combine measureables or college stats for the guys before 2004, so a lot of our favorite HOF and someday HOFers like Ray Lewis I couldn't get information for.

Quick thoughts, most of the top 20 on the list (I sorted according to Explosion Number) show that the Explosion number makes sense. Some on the list are questionable (you can certainly see why the Broncos drafted Tim Crowder out of Texas with a 71 EN and a 1.30 P.ratio - how looked good getting off the bus), some it's too soon to see like Stephen Paea, Marvin Austin and Brooks Reed, but J.J. Watt and Ryan Kerrigan look like the real thing.

It also shows the numbers can obfuscate, as in ranking Al Wilson, Jared Allen, Tamba Hali, Calais Campbell, Mathias Kiwanuka and others as low as they are, you almost have to throw out the EN and go entirely with their P.ratios as most of those guys were between 1.50 and 2.00+. As I look at this, I wish I had grouped the DTs together, then the DE's together, then the OLBs, and then the MLB/ILB and kept each group separate to analyze them. Obviously the same measureables that you want for a pass-rushing DE are not the same as those of a Cover 2 MLB.

There is enough data here to convince me that there is something to Pat's formulas, but they need to be taken in context with each individual, for instance, Clay Matthews has a nice 68 EN but a very low 0.49 p.ratio. If I remember correctly he didn't start at USC until his senior year, so although he played 39 games, he had almost no stats for the first two years, skewing his P.ratio number badly.

So, do with them what you will, maybe you can see something I missed and I look forward to your input.

Player Draft/Round 40 BP VJ BrJ 20Y s Sacks TFL GP Expl # P.ratio LA
Stephen Paea 2011/53 4.98 49 31.0 108.0 4.37 14 30 38 89.00 1.16 0.61
Broderick Bunkley 2006/14 5.01 44 32.5 113.0 4.16 11.5 37 41 85.92 1.18 0.85
Mario Williams 2006/1 4.70 35 40.5 120.0 4.37 14.5 24 12 85.50 3.21 0.33
J.J. Watt 2011/11 4.81 34 37.0 120.0 4.21 11.5 36.5 26 81.00 1.85 0.60
Marvin Austin 2011/52 4.84 38 30.5 112.0 4.40 9 13.5 35 77.83 0.64 0.44
Haloti Ngata 2006/12 5.13 37 31.5 110.0 4.69 3 9 12 77.67 1.00 0.44
Charles Johnson 2007/83 4.75 33 34.0 118.0 13.5 27.5 24 76.83 1.71
Ndamukong Suh 2010/2 5.03 32 35.5 105.0 4.44 24 57 51 76.25 1.59 0.59
DeMarcus Ware 2005/11 4.53 27 38.5 122.0 4.07 27.5 57 43 75.67 1.97 0.46
Brian Cushing 2009/15 4.64 30 35.0 120.0 4.22 8.5 27 42 75.00 0.85 0.42
Ryan Kerrigan 2011/16 4.67 31 33.5 122.0 4.39 33.5 57 44 74.67 2.06 0.28
Osi Umenyiora 2003/56 4.60 26 38.0 120.0 25 39 48 74.00 1.33 4.60
Cliff Avril 2008/92 4.51 27 36.5 117.0 4.31 12.5 32.5 35 73.25 1.29 0.20
Jason Babin 2004/27 4.58 28 34.0 121.0 4.14 38 75 48 72.08 2.35 0.44
Jerod Mayo 2008/10 4.54 22 40.5 114.0 4.29 6.5 21 29 72.00 0.95 0.25
Tim Crowder 2007/56 4.69 32 30.5 111.0 4.32 11.5 21 25 71.75 1.30 0.37
Justin Tuck 2005/74 4.71 24 37.5 118.0 4.29 24.5 43 36 71.33 1.88 0.42
Vince Wilfork 2004/21 5.08 36 26.5 101.0 4.50 8 26 23 70.92 1.48 0.58
Brooks Reed 2011/42 4.65 30 30.5 113.0 4.28 17 25 43 69.92 0.98 0.37
D.J. Williams 2004/17 4.54 22 38.0 117.0 4.05 4 20 34 69.75 0.71 0.49
Clay Matthews 2009/26 4.58 23 35.5 121.0 4.18 5.5 13.5 39 68.58 0.49 0.40
Von Miller 2011/2 4.53 21 37.0 126.0 4.06 33 50.5 47 68.50 1.78 0.47
Robert Quinn 2011/14 4.60 24 34.0 125.0 4.31 13 25.5 25 68.42 1.54 0.29
Nate Irving 2011/67 4.74 27 32.5 107.0 4.25 9 40 32 68.42 1.53 0.49
Darnell Dockett 2004/64 5.00 26 31.0 105.0 10.5 65 51 65.75 1.48
Da'Quan Bowers 2011/51 4.92 22 34.5 110.0 4.57 19.5 44.5 37 65.67 1.73 0.35
James Laurinaitis 2009/35 4.72 22 33.0 115.0 4.18 13 24.5 46 64.58 0.82 0.54
Aldon Smith 2011/7 4.74 20 34.5 118.0 4.50 17 29 23 64.33 2.00 0.24
Joe Mays 2008/200 4.70 21 33.5 111.0 11 29.5 31 63.75 1.31
Corey Liuget 2011/18 4.97 27 27.5 102.0 4.68 8.5 25.5 36 63.00 0.94 0.29
Mike Mohamed 2011/189 4.65 21 32.0 115.0 7 20 49 62.58 0.55
Nick Fairley 2011/13 4.84 22 31.0 113.0 4.56 13 27.5 26 62.42 1.56 0.28
Marcus Thomas 2007/121 5.23 27 26.5 101.0 4.81 10 21.5 36 61.92 0.88 0.42
Carlton Powell 2008/148 5.00 25 27.5 108.0 4.62 3.5 7 14 61.50 0.75 0.38
Jason Pierre-Paul 2010/15 4.71 19 31.5 117.0 4.67 6.5 16.5 13 60.25 1.77 0.04
Marcell Dareus 2011/3 4.93 24 27.0 106.0 4.62 11 20 25 59.83 1.24 0.31
Calais Campbell 2008/50 5.00 16 34.5 111.0 4.63 19.5 39 35 59.75 1.67 0.37
Jon Beason 2007/25 4.72 19 31.5 111.0 1.5 15.5 27 59.75 0.63
Al Wilson 1999/31 4.56 17 33.0 116.0 4.25 11 23 30 59.67 1.13 0.31
Jeremy Beal 2009/247 5.14 22 28.5 106.0 4.46 29 48.5 49 59.33 1.58 0.68
Mathias Kiwanuka 2006/32 4.70 17 32.0 120.0 4.15 9.5 16.5 12 59.00 2.17 0.55
Tamba Hali 2006/20 4.75 18 30.0 106.0 4.31 11 17 13 56.83 2.15 0.44
Jarvis Moss 2007/17 4.70 16 30.5 120.0 4.41 15 20 25 56.50 1.40 0.29
Robert Ayers 2009/18 4.77 18 29.5 102.0 4.46 9 31.5 38 56.00 1.07 0.31
Jared Allen 2004/126 4.72 13 33.0 120.0 4.34 38.5 71 41 56.00 2.67 0.38
Chris Long 2008/2 4.75 34.0 124.0 4.21 20 36.5 37 1.53

0.5

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Mile High Report

You must be a member of Mile High Report to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Mile High Report. You should read them.

Join Mile High Report

You must be a member of Mile High Report to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Mile High Report. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker