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Assessing the two trades

I'm going to be blunt here. The draft value chart was developed by Jimmy Johnson (or at least he is given credit for it) in the early 1990s. You remember the early 1990s, right? That was before e-mail, facebook, twitter, cell-phones, wifi, hybrid cars and the TSA. My point - it's horribly outdated, kind of like this Old-cellphone_medium

Ok, so how do we evaluate the moves that the Broncos made if we don't want to use the ancient "dead sea scrolls" draft value chart? One way is to use the one developed by the guys over at draftmetrics, who spend an unhealthy amount of time analyzing the NFL draft.



Here is there new method for looking at the value of a given draft position.

http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/A%20Different%20Trade%20Value%20Chart.pdf

They fully admit that it is not perfect, but it makes more sense in the "new-CBA" NFL than the old chart.

So how did they rate the moves made by EFX last night?

They found that we gained reasonable value by making the first trade, not great value, but reasonable value.

This assessment is based on how they value picks and the chances of becoming a 5-yr starter, Pro-bowler or All-Pro for any given pick. By making the first move the Broncos added a 4th rounder. The chances of the Broncos finding a 5-yr starter with that extra pick increased marginally (14%) relative to the chances of getting a 5-yr starter with ONLY the pick at 25.

They found that the second move was value neutral. This makes sense given how they value picks in 8 different value groups. The pick at 101 is right at the beginning of value group 6. Pick #126 is also in value group 6. So in their view, we moved down 5 slots and did not gain a pick in a new value group by doing so. The flip side is that 31 and 36 are in the same value group so that we didn't really LOSE anything by making the move. This all presupposes that the player that Broncos wanted at 31 is still there at 36. If he isn't, the move is a FAIL by EFX even if the player that we want at 126 is not there at 126, but is there at 101.

http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/First%20Day%20Trades.pdf

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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