Back on March 11, I wrote a post and predicted what was going to happen with free agency and the coming draft. I wasn't really serious, it was more what I hoped would happen if everything fell our way.
So how did I do? Let's find out.
Peyton Manning signs with the Denver Broncos for 15 million a season for 3 years plus 2 more years with an opt-out clause. Half of Bronco fans are giddy, the other half are up in arms, thinking EFX has lost their marbles.
Peyton signed with Denver but for a lot more than 15 million.
Jacksonville offers a second round pick for Tim Tebow and the FO can’t get a higher bid, so they sit on Tim, thinking that they’ll see how he does after training camp, perhaps someone goes down in the first couple weeks of the season and they can pick up a first rounder next year for him
I didn't see the NY Jets coming, and I really underestimated how badly Elway wanted to get rid of Tebow. They never got a second but settled for a fourth rounder and trading sixths.
Brian Dawkins desperately wants to return for a super bowl run with Peyton on board, but his neck problems force him to retire.
Unfortunately, I got this one right.
Broderick Bunkley, Wesley Woodyard (due to DJ Williams drug test, he is shipped off to Philadelphia for an undisclosed draft pick) and Britton Colquitt are resigned to long-term deals commensurate with their success. Marcus Thomas, Mario Haggan and Spenser Larsen are signed to veteran minimum deals. The FO and Matt Prater come to an agreement on a multi-year deal.
Bunkley signed with New Orleans for huge money, we did get Woodyard and Colquitt signed up, Thomas is still a free agent, I believe Haggan is still a free agent (I can't find where he signed) and Larsen signed with the Patriots. Prater got the franchise tag and I haven't heard if they have come to a long-term deal yet.
We go out and sign Ben Grubbs (OG) and Scott Wells (C) to help protect Manning in the pocket. We pick up Peyton Hillis (RB) to combine with Willis McGahee for a devastating 1-2 punch in the run department. He comes cheap back to Denver because of all the wacky crap this year in Cleveland. We pick up Pierre Garcon (WR), again another protégé of Manning’s to the mix.
I really struck out here, Ben Grubbs landed in the Big Easy, Scott Wells was nabbed by the St. Louis Rams, Hillis signed with the Chiefs and Garcon was nabbed by the Redskins. The amount of time Manning took to make a decision really hurt us as we were not in the hunt with some of the other free agents until we were done landing Manning. And the money we paid Manning kept us out of a lot of signing as well. I love the Manning signing, I just hope it works out for us.
We pick up Adam Carriker (DT) who had 5.5 sacks with Washington last year to pair with Bunkley and Thomas in the middle. We sign Matt Roth (DE) to pair with Dumervil on the ends. London Fletcher is getting long in the tooth, but still plays like he’s 27, and fills a hole for us as MLB and gives Nate Irving some more time as well as some first-class mentoring at the position. Denver snags Brandon Carr (CB) away from Kansas City to replace Goodman, and Dwight Lowery who played under Jack Del Rio, to replace the retiring BDawk.
In retrospect, I had waaaay too many free agents signing with us, but it was a fun fantasy while it lasted. I whiffed on all these guys, the one I really wished we had been able to pull off is Brandon Carr, who signed with the Cowboys. But, we picked up Porter instead.
We actually could have done this. We traded back with the Patriots, they took Don'ta Hightower and Green Bay selected Perry with the 28th pick to pair him with Clay Matthews.
With the 57th pick Broncos select Chris Polk, RB, Washington
Polk actually went undrafted, and signed with the Eagles. Apparently he had some degenerative shoulder problems and he dropped right out of the draft. We picked Ronnie Hillman in the 3rd as our RB pick instead, ahead of Lamar Miller and Robert Turbin.
With the 88th pick Broncos select Derek Wolfe, DT, Cincinnati Derek put up huge numbers in 2011 with 9.5 sacks and 21.5 TFL. He’s 6’5", 295 lbs. ran a 5.01 in the 40 had an explosion number of 75.5.
I bought Pat Kirwan's book Take Your Eye Off The Ball, and I loved it. I picked out all the defensive linemen in the draft and started tracking their stats and figuring out their production and explosion numbers. Wolfe stood out over all the rest. Perhaps he doesn't have the "upside" of Brockers, Cox, and Still, but he had a bigger explosion number, meaning he could get his hand out of the dirt faster and explode past his blocker. He had the highest production numbers of all the DTs on my list. I fell in love with him and hoped we could grab him. It's like Jon Gruden says, "Upside means you haven't done it yet." This kid had done it, bringing a high motor to every play. We traded out of the first and selected Wolfe in the beginning of the second round. Whoo Hoo!
With the 120th pick Broncos select Casey Hayward, CB, Vanderbilt
He didn't last that long. With the 62nd pick, Green Bay took Hayward as their cornerback of the future. We picked Brock Osweiler as Peyton Manning's heir apparent instead with the 57th and selected Omar Bolden in the fourth as our cornerback pick.
With the 129th pick Broncos select Danny Trevathan, OLB, Kentucky Danny runs 6'0" and 230 and led the SEC in tackles with 144, as well as 16 TFL, 4FF, 4ints, and 3 PBU and 3 sacks.
I was looking for a guy who had huge producton in college. We selected Trevathan with the 188th pick in round 6. Yaaay!
With the 152nd pick the Broncos select Kellen Moore QB Boise State
I sure enjoyed researching picks this offseason and it was a lot of fun writing the previous post. But that's all it really is is fun and games. Without knowing what it is that the team is really looking for, it's just a guessing game and I obviously didn't guess any better than all the other MHR guys with mocks!