2013 NFL Draft: Defensive Tackle Production Ratio

Doug Pensinger

Finding a draftable DT for the Broncos among this years prospects.

Defensive Tackle is a position that deserves attention this offseason for the Denver Broncos. Kevin Vickerson, Justin Bannan and Ty Warren are Unrestricted Free Agents and Mitch Unrein is an Exclusive Rights Free Agent in 2013. While it's safe to say that Unrein will be tendered and re-signed, the only Interior Lineman under contract at this time is Sealver Siliga. This scenario makes it obvious, to me anyway, that the Broncos will draft a big man for the middle of their Defensive Line in April.

Player Age/Exp 2012 2013
Justin Bannan 33/11th $1.0M UFA
Sealver Siliga 22/1st $390K $480K
Mitch Unrein 25/3rd $465K ERFA
Kevin Vickerson 30/7th $1.2M UFA
Ty Warren 31/10th $1.25M UFA

Denver didn't spend very much money on this position in 2012 and should have enough to either re-sign Big Vick or pursue a 2nd tier Defensive Tackle in Free Agency while adding a draft pick. Justin Bannan has stated that he would gladly return because he has made Colorado his home and loves playing for the Broncos. While it is true he may give Denver a home town discount, as a player with 10+ years vested in the NFL, Justin must make at least $940K in 2013 per the Collective Bargaining Agreement. I could see him coming back at his 2012 Salary.

We also know that this season's draft picks will have a $405K Base Salary in 2013. That alone makes it worth drafting a DT, but also gives the team more resources to allot in Free Agency along with the option of re-signing Kevin Vickerson and/or Bannan. At this point, I am counting Ty Warren out of the picture. This position group needs to get younger anyway and the combination of a draft pick with the loss of Warren would achieve that.

With that said, it's time to look at the Production Ratio's of this year's crop of Defensive Tackles. The overall rankings are from CBSSports.com and reflect the status as of 1/17/13.

Rnd OVR Player School Ht Wgt 40T Gm TKL TFL SK PD FF FR P.Ratio
1 8 Star Lotulelei Utah 6-3 320 5.14 26 107 21.5 7 5 4 0 1.09
1 14 *Johnathan Hankins Ohio St 6-3 320 5.32 38 138 16 3 0 0 0 0.55
1 16 *Sheldon Richardson Missouri 6-3 295 4.89 24 112 18.5 6 4 4 1 1.02
1 20 Jesse Williams Alabama 6-3 320 5.04 13 61 6.5 1.5 3 0 0 0.61
1 30 John Jenkins Georgia 6-3 358 5.45 14 78 8 4 1 1 0 0.86
1-2 39 *Shariff Floyd Florida 6-3 303 5.17 37 115 26 4.5 1 1 0 0.82
2 46 Kawann Short Purdue 6-3 315 5.16 37 186 49 19.5 17 2 0 1.85
2-3 73 Sylvester Williams N. Carolina 6-3 320 5.08 25 96 20.5 8.5 4 1 0 1.16
2-3 91 *Akeem Spence Illinois 6-1 305 5.12 38 186 16.5 3.5 0 2 0 0.52
3 104 *Bennie Logan LSU 6-3 295 4.89 30 107 12.5 2 4 2 0 0.48
3-4 124 Brandon Williams Missouri So. 6-2 328 5.09 42 191 52.5 25.5 7 5 0 1.86
3-4 134 Jordan Hill Penn St 6-1 294 5.06 46 171 19.5 9.5 2 2 4 0.63
4 147 Everette Dawkins Florida St 6-2 304 4.95 54 106 15 7 4 1 0 0.41
4-5 156 *Kwame Geathers(NT) Georgia 6-5 355 5.38 34 61 6.5 1 1 0 0 0.22
5 171 Cory Grissom S. Florida 6-2 316 5.18 44 105 16.5 5 3 1 0 0.49
5-6 182 Josh Boyd Miss. St 6-3 300 4.96 51 125 19 8.5 0 0 0 0.48
5-6 196 Anthony McCloud Florida St 6-2 322 5.18 40 84 9 5 2 1 0 0.35
6 203 William Campbell Michigan 6-5 318 5.19 50 63 5 3 4 0 0 0.16
6-7 218 Montori Hughes Tenn-Martin 6-3 330 5.12 47 109 24 7 5 4 1 0.66
7 248 Gilbert Pena Mississippi 6-2 334 5.32 22 45 7.5 2 0 0 0 0.43
7-FA 275 Jared Smith N. Hampshire 6-2 302 5.05 42 129 26 12.5 5 3 1 0.92
7-FA 278 Kapron Lewis-Moore Notre Dame 6-4 306 4.89 45 180 22 12 5 5 0 0.75
7-FA 283 Scott Vallone Rutgers 6-3 278 4.92 51 195 36.5 8.5 6 1 1t 0.88
7-FA 301 A.J. Francis Maryland 6-5 321 5.39 49 149 20.5 9.5 7 1 0 0.61
7-FA 314 David King Oklahoma 6-4 286 4.88 41 70 7 4.5 3 1 1t 0.28
7-FA 329 *Brandon Moore Texas 6-6 322 5.38 12 22 5.5 2 1 0 0 2.29
7-FA 336 Anthony Rashad White Michigan St 6-2 330 5.24 26 48 5 0.5 1 0 0 0.21
-- 366 Chris Jones Bowl. Green 6-1 292 5.02 50 157 46.5 28 2 6 2(1) 1.49
-- 379 Abry Jones Georgia 6-3 308 5.02 46 107 13.5 5 3 2 0 0.40
-- 394 Will Pericak Colorado 6-4 300 4.96 49 156 18 6 5 5 0 0.49
-- 407 Jamarckus McFarland Oklahoma 6-1 288 4.97 46 81 17 7.5 2 0 0 0.53
-- 418 Omar Hunter Florida 6-0 312 5.04 53 111 11 1 5 1 0 0.23
-- 437 Brent Russell Georgia So. 6-1 300 5.08 51 253 62 27 1 0 0 1.74
-- 455 Josh Downs LSU 6-1 297 5.08 47 47 11.5 4.5 0 0 0 0.34
-- 470 Dave Kruger Utah 6-5 300 4.96 36 68 14 9 4 3 0 0.64
-- 482 Spencer Nealy Texas A&M 6-5 277 4.87 52 126 21 4.5 5 1 0 0.49
-- 491 Baker Steinkuhler Nebraska 6-5 290 4.98 50 150 16 8 6 0 0 0.48
-- 501 Jake McDonough Iowa St 6-4 290 5.21 39 89 13 5 3 1 0 0.46
-- 509 Nicholas Williams Samford 6-3 310 4.12 40 43 11 9.5 5 2 0 0.51
-- 523 Caraun Reid Princeton 6-2 292 4.94 33 142 30 14 9 2 1 1.26

The formula for the Production Ratio looks like this:

(SACKS + TACKLES FOR LOSS)/NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED = PRODUCTION RATIO

What we are looking for someone who scores a 1.0 or better. For reference, here are a few Bronco players Production Ratio numbers coming out of college.

Robert Ayers - 0.84
Derek Wolfe - 1.25
Malik Jackson - 1.04
Von Miller - 1.78

I should point out that this formula comes from Pat Kirwan’s book, “Take Your Eye Off the Ball.”

The Denver Broncos having the 28th, 60th and 92nd picks (so far) in the 2013 NFL Draft on April 25-27th. That puts John Jenkins, Shariff Floyd, Kawann Short, Sylvester Williams, Akeem Spence, Bennie Logan and Brandon Williams right in their wheelhouse for one of their first 3 draft picks.

I'd also like to take a further look at Brandon Moore (limited sample) and Brent Russell (Division 2 All-Star), but at this point, I’d say Kawann Short has to be the favorite.

Go Broncos!

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