2013 NFL Draft: Outside Linebacker Production Ratio

Justin Edmonds

The Broncos can't cover Tight Ends.

The Outside Linebackers for the Denver Broncos is one of the more stable positions going into the 2013 season. There is always room for improvement though. There is also depth and youth developing behind the starters. Von Miller is a stud and outside of injury, his understudy better be able to play the other Linebacker positions as well as Special Teams to get any playing time.

With Wesley Woodyard producing more and more each year, one has to wonder where D.J. Williams fits in the scheme of things. If Woodyard starts ahead of him, there are six million reasons why D.J. would be a burden for the team. Perhaps he will renegotiate again this year.

Here is the current makeup of the Outside Linebacker position for the Broncos.

Pos. Player Age/Exp 2012 2013
SLB Von Miller 23/2nd $1.33M $2.28M
SLB Nate Irving 24/2nd $465K $555K
WLB Wesley Woodyard 26/5th $1.5M $2M
WLB D.J.Williams 30/9th $1.6M $6M
LB Keith Brooking 37/15th $1M UFA
LB Danny Trevathan 22/R $390K $405K

Of course, there are a few players in this year’s Draft that could help out this team. Denver still needs a solution for covering Tight Ends like Kevin Boss, Antonio Gates, Marcedes Lewis, Brent Celek, Chris Cooley, Dennis Pitta, Owen Daniels, Coby Fleener, Jason Witten, Martellus Bennett, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Those are all players the Broncos will see in 2013.


So let’s take a look at the available OLB prospects in the 2013 NFL Draft and how their production added up during their collegiate careers.

Once again, the formula for the Production Ratio looks like this:

(SACKS + TACKLES FOR LOSS)/NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED = PRODUCTION RATIO

This formula comes from Pat Kirwan’s book, "Take Your Eye Off the Ball." If you haven’t read it, I highly recommend it. It is an easy read.

What we are looking for someone who scores a 1.0 or better.

Rnd - The Projected Round for the prospect to be drafted in.
OVR - The overall draft ranking from CBSSports.com
TPG - Tackles Per Game
Under Interceptions and Fumble Recoveries, "()" or "t" indicates a Touchdown return.

Rnd OVR Player School Hgt Wgt 40T GM TKL TFL SK TPG PD Int FF FR P.Ratio
1 7 *Jarvis Jones Georgia 6-2 242 4.7 22 83 21 13.5 3.77 2 0 2 0 1.56
1 23 *Alec Ogletree Georgia 6-3 234 4.7 30 197 20 6 6.56 9 1 3 1t 0.86
2 53 Khaseem Greene Rutgers 6-1 230 4.6 37 250 18.5 5.5 6.75 4 5 6 2 0.64
2 64 Arthur Brown Kansas St 6-1 228 4.6 37 118 10 2 3.18 4 2(1) 0 1 0.32
2 65 John Simon Ohio St 6-2 260 4.7 50 154 43 20.5 3.08 10 0 0 1t 1.27
2-3 67 Chase Thomas Stanford 6-4 248 4.7 52 226 50 19.5 4.34 6 2 9 4 1.33
2-3 72 Brandon Jenkins Florida St 6-3 260 4.6 40 119 37.5 22.5 2.97 4 0 2 0 1.50
2-3 78 Sean Porter Texas A&M 6-2 230 4.6 37 219 28 13.5 5.91 12 1 1 2 1.12
3 83 Jamie Collins S. Mississippi 6-3 240 4.6 52 314 45.5 21 6.03 15 3 7 4 1.27
3 93 *Jelani Jenkins Florida 6-0 237 4.5 36 182 16.5 6 5.05 7 3 1 1 0.62
3-4 104 Travis Long Wash. St. 6-4 245 4.76 47 201 42 20.5 4.27 10 1 4 0 1.33
3-4 111 Trevardo Williams Connecticut 6-1 234 4.52 50 134 40.5 30.5 2.68 3 0 5 1 1.42
4 116 Zaviar Gooden Missouri 6-2 230 4.49 49 256 20.5 4 5.22 11 5 2 5 0.50
4 126 Gerald Hodges Penn St 6-2 238 4.75 44 140 12.5 4.5 3.18 6 1 2 0 0.38
4 133 Sio Moore Connecticut 6-1 230 4.63 41 274 44 16 6.68 18 4 4 4 1.21
4-5 147 Keith Pough Howard 6-2 235 4.79 35 349 72 7.5 9.97 5 2 1 2(1) 2.27
5 152 DeVonte Holloman S. Carolina 6-2 241 4.64 50 204 14 2 4.08 13 7 2 0 0.32
5 159 Lerentee McCray Florida 6-2 249 4.64 38 65 12.5 4.5 1.71 5 1 3 0 0.44
5 164 Meshak Williams Kansas St 6-2 245 4.74 26 73 27 18 2.81 4 0 4 1 1.73
5-6 172 Brandon Sharpe Syracuse 6-1 253 4.67 48 84 24.5 14.5 1.75 2 0 3 0 0.81
5-6 183 Michael Mauti Penn St 6-2 235 4.64 39 183 12.5 4.5 4.69 10 4 3 0 0.43
6-7 206 Etienne Sabino Ohio St 6-3 238 4.65 47 119 12 5 2.53 4 1 1 0 0.78
6-7 219 Cameron Lawrence Mississippi. St 6-2 230 4.69 48 291 18.5 7 6.06 13 4 5 0 0.53
7 246 Michael Clay Oregon 5-11 224 4.72 37 176 11 4 4.75 7 3 2 3 0.40
7-FA 263 Ja'Gared Davis SMU 6-1 235 4.77 52 301 41 20.5 5.78 20 4 8 2 1.18
7-FA 276 Maalik Bomar Cincinnati 6-2 228 4.63 47 178 15 3 3.78 5 1 2 2 0.38
7-FA 284 Jory Johnson Connecticut 6-1 228 4.72 45 227 20.5 0 5.04 7 3 3 3 0.45
7-FA 295 John Lotulelei UNLV 6-0 235 4.73 25 121 4.5 0 4.84 3 1 2 0 0.18
7-FA 323 Nathan Williams Ohio St 6-3 240 4.83 45 132 30 13 2.93 5 1 3 3 0.95
7-FA 337 Ty Powell Harding 6-2 246 4.68 15 47 17.5 10.5 3.13 1 0 0 0 1.86
7-FA 340 Kenneth Tate Maryland 6-4 230 4.73 49 239 12.5 9 4.87 11 7 5 1 0.43
-- 354 Brandon Magee Arizona St 5-11 234 4.68 43 222 23.5 10 5.16 3 3 1 2 0.78
-- 365 Jake Knott Iowa St 6-2 240 4.68 47 347 18 1.5 7.38 23 8 10 0 0.41
-- 381 Demetrius Hartsfield Maryland 6-2 240 4.79 41 338 27 8.5 8.24 6 2 2 3 0.86
-- 401 Herman Lathers Tennessee 6-0 230 4.74 36 193 12 4.5 5.36 3 1 1 0 0.45
-- 417 Alonzo Highsmith Arkansas 6-0 234 4.76 19 134 16.5 6.5 7.05 3 1 1 2 1.21
-- 440 Archibald Barnes Vanderbilt 6-4 235 4.72 50 151 7.5 3 3.02 9 3 5 0 0.21
-- 452 Phillip Steward Houston 6-1 230 4.64 52 215 50 16 4.13 18 11 6 3 1.26
-- 473 Mike Taylor Wisconsin 6-2 225 4.75 46 375 38.5 7 8.15 13 5 4 4 0.96
-- 486 Ray Shipman UCF 6-4 242 4.76 34 217 8 3.5 6.38 5 1 0 0 0.33
-- 495 Terence Gavin W. Virginia 6-3 222 4.65 47 235 21.5 10.5 5.00 13 2 3 2 0.33
-- 511 Kenny Cain TCU 6-1 225 4.76 45 189 9.5 2.5 4.20 12 3 0 2 0.26
-- 519 Jordan Campbell N.Mex Highl. 5-10 244 4.64 22 214 51.5 17 9.72 8 2 4 2 3.11
-- 528 Raymond Buchanan Miami (Fla) 6-1 228 4.52 41 116 14 0 2.82 3 1 0 0 0.34
-- 539 Nick Moody Florida St 6-2 237 4.68 42 142 5 1 3.38 3 1 1 1 0.14
-- 545 Jonathan Willard Clemson 6-1 223 4.57 40 204 16.5 3 5.10 7 0 1 0 0.48
-- 556 Shaq Wilson S. Carolina 5-11 225 4.67 52 237 15 4 4.55 5 4 2 4 0.36

Looking at this chart, the Broncos don’t have a shot at Jarvis Jones at all this year, by virtue of their 13-4 finish in 2012. They have the 28th, 60th and 92nd picks (so far) in the 2013 NFL Draft on April 25-27th. I really don’t think OLB is a position of need that should be addressed in the first 3 rounds personally, but so far, Arthur Brown and Jelani Jenkins are sitting around the 2nd and 3rd picks. Those two might get consideration for Best Player Available when the Broncos are on the clock.

There are some intriguing small school guys situated lower in the current rankings. Sio Moore, Keith Pough in the 4th-5th round area put up some good numbers. Ja’Gared Davis appears to be pretty well rounded. Jake Knott has 23 Pass Breakups and a ton of Tackles, he just isn’t a penetrator.

Jordan Campbell of New Mexico Highlands has a Production Ratio of 3.11. That was enough to make me investigate further. It turns out that he went to USC, but made the choice to leave in 2010. Redshirted as a freshman fullback in 2007, his first year at USC, Campbell played on special teams and served as a backup strongside linebacker in 2008 after switching from FB in the Spring of 2008. He was the backup at weakside linebacker and excelled on Special Teams as a sophomore in 2009.

He took advantage of an NCAA-regulated free-transfer policy for juniors and seniors in June 2010, because he couldn't get much playing time.

He said he lost his place in the depth chart because of the (sprained ankle)injury. By the time he was healthy, his spot was no longer available and he felt he had lost valuable competition time.

"I'm confident enough in my game where I can go to another school and start for the next two years," said Campbell.

USC also went under sanction from the NCAA right around the time Pete Carroll conveniently skipped out of town.

Jordan transferred to Louisville from USC, but never played a game for the Cards because of those sanctions, an academic issue and a false rumor that he hired an Agent. Thus, he ended up at New Mexico Highlands.

Scouting Report

Jordan Campbell New Mexico Highlands University Linebacker - Video


That should leave us with something to discuss.


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