FanPost

By the numbers: Week 7, Indy

adam gase - Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

This week we've tried to digest what the Jacksonville game means in light of a road trip to face a good Indy team. There are all kinds of things we could look at, so just a few numbers about last week and then we'll look at the Colts.

16

We won that game last week by 3 scores. Really nothing to complain about is it? I went through all the stages of disappointment too. The coming out flat and only leading by two at halftime. I'd have rather had a 20 point lead by then. Watching Blackmon convert first downs over and over. The lack of pass rush, etc. But was the game ever in doubt? No. Not if you're honest. I was embarrassed for the fans lucky enough to see the game in person who booed at halftime. Yuck. Booo.

1 of 4

We had only 1 (Wolfe) of our top 4 pass rushers from 2012 on the field against Jax. We will look much better going forward if Woodyard and Von can stay healthy. Patience dear Bronco fans.

2-46

That is the record of teams that lose both the turnover ratio and time of possession in the same game through week 6. One of those wins was our Broncos this week. (The other was a late come from behind Cleveland win against Minnesota in week 3.) So far teams that win the turnover ratio win 80% of the time, while teams that win the TOP win 71% of the time. But if you have the advantage in both metrics, your winning percentage jumps to 96%.

How did we do it? We kept Jax out of the EZ. They had long drives and took good care of the ball but when the time to score came, they couldn't and had to settle for FGs. Our defense actually played pretty well when the field got shorter. We need to create more turnovers on defense. We'll look into this more in future weeks. Our offense is probably good enough to overcome turnovers in the regular season, but come playoff time we've got to improve on this. Hopefully more pass rush will help.

Indianapolis

The "Actual" row is the current team stat after 6 weeks.

The "Expected" row is the average of the opposing team's games.

The resulting "Difference" row suggests whether a team is out performing or under performing their opponents. Please note that on offense we want a positive number, on defense a negative one.

Offense

QB Rating

Yds/Rush

3rd D Conv. %

Turnovers

Points

Denver Actual

128.1

3.8

57.5

10

265

Denver Expected

98.2

4.1

41

8.7

167

Denver Difference

29.9*

-0.3

16.5*

-1.3

98*

Indy Actual

89.9

4.7

45.8

5

148

Indy Expected

88.7

4.2

37.5

9.5

133

Indy Difference

1.2

0.5*

8.3

4.5*

15

DEN

IND

DEN

IND

DEN

Defense

QB Rating

Yds/Rush

3rd D Conv. %

Turnovers

Points

Denver Actual

87.8

3.2

38.3

10

152

Denver Expected

84.4

3.9

36.1

11.5

127

Denver Difference

3.4

-0.7*

2.2*

1.5

25

Indy Actual

73.6

4.6

35.5

10

109

Indy Expected

88.7

4

31.4

9.7

123

Indy Difference

-18.5*

0.6

4.1

-0.3*

-14*

IND

DEN

DEN

IND

IND

-Offensively Indy has faced better defenses than we have, particularly against the pass.

-Luck has performed pretty much at the same level as the defenses he's played against, while Manning has significantly outperformed his. This will be an interesting matchup since Indy's defensive strength has been keeping their opponents' QBs under performing.

-This is not a good matchup for us from a turnover standpoint, since Indy outperforms their competition on both offense and defense and we under perform ours. Will Miller change that on the defensive side of the ball?

-The key to this game IMHO, is how well our running game does, and whether we can render Indy's running game ineffective. They have done well running the ball, but we're good against the run. We've struggled to run well consistently while their defense is nearly last against the run.

If we average out the stats in the above table, we get Denver 45, Indianapolis 32. I'd say our scoring defense is better than that, and I would be surprised if we can score over 40 on them, but that is what the first 6 games would suggest. Regardless, it looks like we'll match up pretty well and should do fine unless we cough the ball up like last week. It will be a really interesting game. Go Broncos!

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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