Before I get into the picks for this week, I want to go over my record, as promised the record of others who participated, and some thoughts (more like rants) on games I lost. Everyone who participated did pretty well. Hitting more then half the games ATS is pretty impressive
DBroncs1414: 9-5. Pretty decent against the spread, just pissed my top 2 picks and the pick I actually bet on (BUFF) stunk.
The Skipper Dude: 11-3. Beat me in the 2 games we differed from. A hat tip to you sir, should've listened.
ElwayFanJ: 8-6. Also another good record against the spread.
Now my thoughts:
-I hate you Bills, so, so much. EJ Manuel could not have done worse if he tried. Thanks a lot.
-Hat tip to the Eagles, that D came to play. Their front 7 is playing well enough where you would not know they had the worst secondary in the world. I'm not buying into Foles yet, however. That Cowboys game (which has the worst pass D in the NFL) is not too far in the past. Also looking at 2 of his TD's, the one to Jackson was lucky and the one to Cooper had no one covering him. Between this and the Oakland game, it looks like no one is even bothering covering Cooper.
-For GB, their Defense would have been better off not playing Matthews. He had an almost negative impact as a pass rusher with that club. Similar to Von's club his rookie year.
-Colts, I'm done picking you. Unless your playing an elite team. Talk about Jeckyll and Hyde.
-Titans need to clean house. With a new owner en route and this regime into year three with no QB to move forward with and a rather average roster in a year they tried to contend for the playoffs. Cap that off with losing to a team that hadn't lost by less then 10 points all year and the proof is in the pudding.
-San Fran doesn't lose that game if Davis doesn't get hurt.
Now for this weeks picks
Indy -3 AT Tenn: Pick Indy. So much for not picking Indy, but this is a division game and I think they'll be ready this week. Plus, Ryan Fitzpatrick is some new level awful.
Atlanta -1.5 AT TB: Pick Atlanta. I would pick TB if Mike James was still healthy. But right now they have a rookie 3rd round pick at QB and a 3rd string RB. You gotta think even this Atlanta D can stop them. On a side note, I think if this team cleans house (on the coaching and FO level), and can either get Glennon to improve to a starting level QB or get a new one, this team could be dangerous going forward. Even beyond Darelle Revis (who I'd bet is gone after this year, no regime is gonna pay him another 16 mil) there's some pieces on this D, the OL is pretty good, and Martin can develop into one of the better RBs in the league.
AT Buffalo -1 NY Jets. Pick Buffalo. I hate picking this team a 3rd week in a row, but looking at the trends the Jets can't help but lose after they win. I'm thinking a week of getting off the rust will help Manuel. Don't forget how close this game was in the Meadowlands either.
Detroit -2 AT Pittsburgh. Pick Pittsburgh. Give Tomlin credit. This team gave up against the Pats then followed it up with stomping on the Bills. The Lions on the other hand are an undisciplined team with questionable coaching and leadership. I expect them with a one game lead playing a team with a bad record to play a real stinker.
At Philadelphia -3.5 Washington. Pick Washington. Hate to pick against the Eagles 3 weeks in a row, but I gotta go with my gut on this. Philly has been absolutely horrid at home, this season and last. And while everyone remembers the Eagles revolutionizing offense from these teams' first matchup, people tend to forget Washington almost pulled out the comeback.
San Diego -1.5 AT Miami: Pick San Diego. Everything points to Miami in this one. SD traveling to the East Coast, SD coming off an emotional loss against a division rival, the public hammering the Chargers at a staggering 93%. But I just don't see the Dolphins getting past the obvious distractions.
AT Chicago -3 Baltimore: Pick Chicago. I know what I said about teams losing tough, emotional, divisional games, but these Bears need to win now. I think they'll have trouble catching up to San Fran and Carolina for a WC spot, and they're not out of the division race yet with another GB matchup sans Rodgers and the Lions not proven to be a consistent team. Baltimore has looked awful on offense, while the Trestman has made this offense work with either McCown or Cutler.
AT Cincinnati -6 Cleveland: Pick Cincy. I really like the Browns this year, especially when Weeden isn't the starter, but Cincy has been a different beast at home this year. Besides, with a tough division loss last week and dropping a game earlier to the Browns in Cleveland, this has a revenge beatdown written all over it.
AT Houston -7 Oakland: Pick Oakland. As bad as Pryor looked, there were some good things to take away from the Giants game. First off they played a respectable game on the East Coast, something they haven't done. Houston has shown some signs of life with Keenum but people keep forgetting he has yet to win a game. Oakland will likely lose this game but like last week, I just can't see Houston win by more then a TD.
Arizona -7 AT Jacksonville. Pick Arizona. I said it last week I'll say it again: This AZ team is very underrated. Sure, they haven't played well on the road. But besides last weeks game the Jags have lost every game by 10+. The Cards are a good enough team to put the Jags in their place.
AT Denver -8 KC. Pick Denver.
AT Seattle -12.5 Minnesota. Pick Seattle. Seattle has covered every spread at home. People might be buying into Minnesota now but forget that this was their first win in the U.S. and they beat a mediocre (at best) team in a tough spot. Seattle is just much better and a team with an already murky QB situation just keeps getting murkier each week.
AT NO -3 SF. Pick SF. People see NO blowout a playoff team at home and the 49ers lose to a playoff team at home. They then do the math and figure NO should beat SF at home. Not so fast. Read my analysis on the SF loss for my thoughts on that, and realize NO played the worst "playoff" team and the worst pass D. One more thing: NO has struggled against physical defenses. Case in point: NE, NYJ, and TB.
AT NYG -5 GB. Pick GB. This spread opened at -7, the sharps jumped all over it, and now it's sinking like a stone. I think GB will win this game by a decent amount, but I reserve the right to change my opinion if the spread changes.
AT Carolina -2.5 New England. Pick New England. Vegas, how dumb you are. Your giving me points with Tom Brady? I'll take your money every time. Other then the obvious QB advantage, we have the coach advantage. This reeks of a game where one team is too hyped up for a prime time matchup after a big win against a good team (Carolina) and a great team with a great coach and great leadership approaching this as just another game (NE).
Pick of the Week: New England. As I said, I really like getting points with Tom Brady, the always steady Patriots, and against a young team new to the spotlight.