I'm amazed that, for all the talk about Manning's allegedly poor cold weather record, nobody has actually broken it down and analyzed it game by game to look for other explanations.
First and foremost, the sample size is extremely small. So small, in fact, that it shouldn't be that hard to simply list the games and compare them against the rest of Manning's career. I would like to see, for example, a proper list of those cold weather games, where the list includes several key factors:
- W-L record of each opponent at the time of the game.
- W-L record of each opponent for that respective full season.
- Same for Manning's team (Indy or Denver).
- Manning's W-L record for ROAD games vs cold weather games. Virtually all of the cold weather games were ROAD games ... which will tend to produce a lower than career W-L record in ANY weather.
- A few key QB statistics ... QBR, rating, passing yards, etc, each compared to Manning's career averages.
I'm guessing that the data shown this way will better show that, in fact, Manning's cold weather record is far more attributable to factors other than Manning, especially the road v home adjustment. Of course his record against good teams (especially playoff games) will be worse than his overall career record, because those teams are better than average. Ditto for his cold weather vs road record..
Again, it is a very small sample size ... so we should all be very hesitant to draw firm conclusions without bothering to look for other factors properly.