Who the hell knows? Mr. Elway you have done your job sir--keep blowin' that smoke my friend! This weeks mailbag is going to feature a slew of MHR brethren dishing on the draft. Christopher Hart, David East, and Scotty Payne are all back along with the esteemed Mr. Topher Doll in his mailbag debut. Lots of draft talk to get to....COMMENCE!!!
Who is your favorite Bronco prospect in this draft and why?
Hard to say since there are so many options, the Broncos aren't in a similar situation as the earlier teams that have it narrowed down, who knows what position or player the Broncos will pick.
I am going to go out and surprise a lot of people here and talk about one of the best defensive backs in the entire draft. South Carolina's D.J. Swearinger would be an excellent fit for the Denver Broncos defense and the ultimate selection for a team in desperate need of help in the secondary. Swearinger measures in at roughly 5'11 and 210 pounds. While he didn't run tremendously at the combine (4.6 range) he plays much faster on tape and his instincts and quality pursuit angle towards the ball help him get to the ball much quicker than other prospects in this draft.
He is one of the most versatile defenders in college football, having played every position in the Gamecock's defensive backfield. I feel that he can play FS in the NFL and be successful in single-high coverage, but if he doesn't work out there, he would be an excellent strong safety due to his abilities to stuff the run, match up against tight ends and by physical around the line of scrimmage. Has the ability to be an extra "backer" on the field, much as John Fox used Thomas Davis when he coached the Carolina Panthers. Additionally, I like his experience -- playing 52 games for South Carolina and ascending to a starting role midway through his sophomore season until his graduation this Spring. His intensity is unparalleled on the field and his vocal presence and leadership abilities would be a welcomed addition to this defense. I truly believe he will be a difference maker in the NFL.
Tank Carradine. I've been pounding the table for this guy for awhile. Yes the ACL is a problem. Guys are coming back from that injury quicker than ever before. There's the one year wonder tag as well. I understand it, but it's pretty overrated if you ask me.
Tank is the best pure pass rusher in this draft and whoever drafts him is going to be very happy for many years to come. Him and Von would give the Broncos a great pass rush tandem for a long long time
A few other guys i really like. Arthur Brown, Christine Michael and Jesse Williams
My favorite Broncos prospect is Marcus Lattimore. This Gamecock is a top talent, but due to his gruesome injury he won't go until probably the third. Marcus Lattimore, if healthy, could be the Broncos running back of the future. Who better to welcome Lattimore to the NFL than Willis McGahee?
I would personally love to see the Broncos spend a third round pick on him, but I don't think it's in the cards. The front office is looking for an instant contributor at the running back position and you may not get that with Lattimore.
Le'Veon Bell. Tough, punishing runner with great vision, sick moves, and the body type to carry the feature back workload for the Broncos.
Is best player available a myth?
Yes, for the most part. Best player is purely based on what the scouts and GM's value a player, and just as fans can't agree on anything, neither can scouts. If there was such a thing as a unanimous best player "board" and the idea was actually true, the draft would have no surprises. While there may be consensus on some players, there is little unity among teams, scouts, GM's and fans about creating a true best player myth since each person sees each player differently.
No doubt about it. There are so many variables teams have to consider throughout the evaluation process that I find it extraordinarily hard to believe that there is this "one" prospect at any given pick that is the best football player on the board. Mike Daneshgar of DraftBreakdown did an article on this a while ago that I hope the entire MHR community reads. It sums up a lot of my thoughts in a great manner and will paint you a nice picture on the myth of BPA.
Not at all.
Each team has a big board with every player ranked that their interested in. Each teams is different. Now selecting by BPA is a bit of a myth. Only a few teams can do that. Teams that do not have any big needs and can go BPA or a team that has many picks.
What teams do is take "Best Player Available at an area of need"
No BPA is not a myth, mathematically speaking that is. However, it will take about 4-5 years to determine whether that math is correct. Hypothetically, you could land a pro bowler at every single one of your picks. It's just not likely. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. One team's draft board will look vastly different than another's. So in reality it's hard to gauge what "best" really means.
Yes--because Rodney Adams says so;)
The Broncos are sitting at #28 with Bjoern Werner, Tank Carradine, Desmond Trufant, Arthur Brown, Manti T'eo, Johnathon Cyprian, Jonathan Banks, and Eddie Lacy are all available, who do you think they pick and why?
Werner and Te'o would be the two highest players left on my big board of needs and looking at who might be left, I am tempted by Te'o since I can get a pass rushing DE in the 2nd but Te'o is the best pure MLB in this draft. But since I don't know if the rising idea of the 5-2 in Dove Valley is true, and if it is I'm not spending a 1st round pick on a player who might not start. Tough call. Eh I'll go Werner, if the Broncos are going to run their nickel defense out of the 5-2 like they did last season they already have Trev and Woodyard as starting linebacker. Drafting Te'o into that situation would be an upgrade but no a massive one. Adding Werner would instantly add flexibility to the line by allowing Wolfe and Ayers to move around a bit more, which is vital.
That is a lot of good players to choose from. The only guy I don't like value wise at that point in time is Banks, howerver the rest of them would be good value at that point in time. If I was a betting man, the Broncos would opt for Desmond Trufant -- a player who has a topnotch skill set, NFL bloodlines and would be the heir apparent to Champ Bailey. It might seem a little illogical with the ascension of Chris Harris and signing of Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie, but the fact of the matter is this: Those two and Tony Carter are free agents after this year (operating under the assumption that DRC's deal is really a one year deal because the second is voidable) and Champ Bailey isn't going to get any younger. This is a passing league and you need premier cover corners to win. This draft has a lot of pass rushers and specialist who can aid in that department, but not a lot of #1 CB's -- I have three guys, with perhaps a few more that could do that. Getting a player like Trufant would be special and a coup at #28
I think it comes down to either Werner, Tank, Trufant and Lacy.
Elway listed these positions in order of importance in building a team...
1. Franchise - QB check
2. An Edge Rusher - Need one
3. A Left Tackle - Check
4. A cover corner - could use another
Looking at that list i think the Broncos will go DE if there is one available. Carradine is a top pass rusher and Werner is one of the better all around DE's in the draft. Trufant would be a solid addition if the Broncos decide to add a corner. I left out Banks because i think his slow 40 time will knock him into the mid second round. I listed Lacy because i see a team like the Broncos viewing him as a value pick.
Arthur Brown. You want a player that will make an immediate impact for this year's Super Bowl run? That man hails from Kansas State. There are no guarantees that Bjoern Werner, Desmond Trufant, Johnathan Cyprien, Tank Carradine, or Jonathan Banks can start day one.
I don't think that's the case with Brown. You want to avoid another Joe Mays incident? You want a guy who can help cover a tight end? Arthur Brown is your man. Who cares that he's only 6 feet tall? Guess who played at the same size as Arthur Brown? Derrick "How am I not in the Hall of Fame yet?" Brooks.That being said. I don't believe the Broncos will draft him, but a man can hope.
Bjoern Werner all day
Is moving down and netting more picks a good strategy given that the Broncos don't have a lot of roster holes to fill?
I say no unless they can net a high 2nd and another mid round pick because while this draft is deep in depth, the Broncos need actual talent long term and drafting low ceiling players in the late 2nd and 3rd won't help this team long term. Sit pat, don't get fancy and just add talent.
Yes. In a draft like this where the Broncos admittedly have ~ 20 first round grade prospects -- it would be wise for them to trade down from #28 if none of their top guys are available in order to accumulate more selections. This draft lacks elite talent at the top, but is filled with quality football players who will have successful NFL careers at positions of need for the Broncos. In an ideal world, Denver will be able to move down with a team who is looking for their QBOTF (Nassib, Manuel, Barkley, etc.) and pick up an additional third or fourth round selection. I would like the Broncos to be able to address the secondary, defensive line, linebacker and running back positions with their first four selections. Getting another solid pick would allow them more flexibility to get a guy who can help contribute right away. Under no circumstance should the Broncos move any of the selections they would gain in a trade back. They did that last year (twice) and it was absolutely terrible resource management.
Depends who's available at 28. I prefer quality over quantity. Now this draft will have tons of value in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, so if the Broncos can add another 2nd and 3rd rounder i'd be okay with it. Makes the 3 days more fun when your team has more picks too
Moving down into the very end of the first or into the top of the second is a good move depending on the deal. Last year I thought the Broncos did not get a very good value when trading down. When the Broncos traded down from 25 to 31, they only received a fourth round pick (126th overall).
If that's the case this year, I'd much rather have them take a guy who will make an immediate impact in round one (cough Arthur Brown cough). However, if they can move to the top of the 2nd round and get a third round pick to boot, they should jump right on it.
Depends on the situation. I'm all for adding quality--determining a player v. a bust is iffy at best in the draft so why not hedge your bets and increase your percentages of adding a quality player by having more tickets to the lottery?
What do you think will be the biggest surprise in the draft?
I think the Broncos draft a mid round QB. It would be a surprise to some but when you look at the Broncos QB situation, you have Peyton and Oz, drafting another QB who can compete and motive Oz would be a good strategy, especially a QB with more in common with Peyton since Oz is a totally different style of QB. If a cerebral, accurate passer like Tyler Wilson or Landry Jones falls to the late 3rd or early 4th, I wouldn't be shocked if the Broncos picked one up.
You are going to see a lot of trades this year. Expect the Falcons and 49ers to make enormous moves up the board to get prospects they are in love with. Both those teams have a plethora of picks and very few needs, so it definitely makes sense for them to pursue impact players who can help them get to the Super Bowl. I also expect teams like Miami, Dallas and Minnesota to maneuver around as well. Look for the Vikings to stockpile more picks this year and in the future to help keep pace in a very talented division.
I expect a lot of trades. This draft may have a lot of surprises. No one knows where anyone will go at this point, so should be a bit of drama tonight!
I'm going bold on this one. The biggest surprise of the draft will be when the Broncos trade up to select Zac Dysert in the bottom of round three. For more of my thoughts on that, check out my draft day predictions article.
Raiders actually getting a
goodplayer with their 1st round pick...
Hope you enjoyed this week's mailbag Broncos Country, may the draft be with you!