FanPost

Correlation of QB play to team wins


Methodology and assumptions:

1. Normalized QB metric defined as =( Total number of touchdowns (passing + QB rushing) - Total number of turnovers (interceptions+ fumbles)) / ( Total number of games)

2. Being lazy, I have carried the analysis using comparison between career numbers (including playoffs) and just playoffs numbers. To be more accurate the analysis should be completed using regular season vs playoffs numbers.

3. The Turnover total for playoffs does not include fumbles (only interceptions), but career data includes fumbles. Reason for such discrepancy - career fumble data readily available but playoff fumble data is not readily available (again being lazy).

4. For simplicity sake, the QB metric is not adjusted w.r.t Running Production, Defense and Special Teams. It is also not adjusted for efficiency improvements over the years because of rule changes. The analysis also does not take into account variations within teams (better receiving corps, better defense, better coaching etc.). I am sure all these factors will improve the data and conclusions.

5. Data References: www.pro-football-reference.com and www.nfl.com

6 Disclaimer: I apologize if some one already completed such an analysis and presented their conclusions

Data:

Career Playoffs Playoff- Career Delta
Games TD TO TD-TO Diff TD-TO Diff/Game Games TD TO TD-TO Diff TD-TO Diff/Game
Brett Favre 302 522 390 132 0.44 24 45 30 15 0.63 0.19
Tom Brady 178 350 146 204 1.15 24 45 22 23 0.96 -0.19
Joe Montana 192 293 143 150 0.78 23 47 21 26 1.13 0.35
John Elway 234 333 263 70 0.30 22 33 21 12 0.55 0.25
Peyton Manning 225 460 229 231 1.03 20 35 21 14 0.70 -0.33
Steve Young 169 275 127 148 0.88 20 28 13 15 0.75 -0.13
Terry Bradshaw 168 244 210 34 0.20 19 33 26 7 0.37 0.17
Dan Marino 242 429 271 158 0.65 18 33 24 9 0.50 -0.15
Jim Kelley 160 244 185 59 0.37 17 21 28 -7 -0.41 -0.78
Troy Aikman 165 174 156 18 0.11 16 24 17 7 0.44 0.33
Ben Roethlisberger 128 206 126 80 0.63 14 20 17 3 0.21 -0.41
Eli Manning 138 219 165 54 0.39 11 17 8 9 0.82 0.43
Kurt Warner 124 211 156 55 0.44 13 33 14 19 1.46 1.02
Drew Brees 171 335 181 154 0.90 9 22 4 18 2.00 1.10
Aaron Rodgers 86 192 55 137 1.59 9 21 5 16 1.78 0.18
Joe Flacco 81 111 72 39 0.48 13 20 8 12 0.92 0.44
Average 0.65

Some conclusions:

1. The average of studied sample (average of all QBs shown here) for career normalized QB metric was 0.65 .

2. So QBs with >0.65 career metric are: Brady, Montana, P. Manning, Young, Marino, Brees and Rodgers

3. Positive Playoff-Career Delta indicates QBs did perform better in playoffs compared to career. So QBs with better playoff record than their career are: Favre, Montana, Elway, Bradshaw, Aikman, E. Manning, Warner, Brees, Rodgers and Flacco.

4. Contrary to popular thought Brady and Roethlisberger's playoff metrics are lower than their career metrics and Favre's is higher.

5. Brees and Warner have the highest jump going into playoffs. The most plausible reason is that they reached playoffs fewer number of times but whenever they reached the playoffs they really played well.

6. QBs with >0.65 career metric and >0.65 playoff metric are: Brady, Montana, P. Manning, Young, Brees and Rodgers. 4 out of the 6 QBs come from 2000-2010 generation.

7. Even though Brady, P. Manning and Young metrics reduced going into playoffs, their play was better than average play of the sampled QBs (>0.65) . It also means their career metric numbers are much higher than the average.

8. The only QBs with higher than average career metric (>0.65) and better playoff performance are Montana, Brees and Rodgers. Both Brees and Rodgers have a significantly lower sample size

9. Comparing different generations (taking the top 4 values)

Gen 1 (pre 2000s) : The career average of Montana, Marino, Young and Favre=0.69

Gen 2 (2000s); The career average of Warner, P. Manning, Brady and Bress= 0.88

Gen 3 (2000+ ): The career average of E. Manning, Roethlisberger, Rodgers and Flacco = 0.77

10. Rodgers career metric is significantly higher than the rest (albeit with lower sample size). If (that's a big if) Rodgers is able to continue at his present pace, he would definitely end as GOAT IMO.

11. The data for Bradshaw & Aikman, Brady & P. Manning and Flacco & E. Manning is eerily very similar

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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