To keep it simple, there are 3 ways that possession can change:
- Turnover. This is the best case scenario for our team.
- Touchdown. This may seem like the worst case, but it may not be for this team.
- Kick (including punts and FG). This may be the worst case scenario for our team. Drives that end in a kick, can be time consuming, especially against our defense.
Why is this important? Here are a few reasons:
- We all know that Peyton’s offense is based on rhythm. More possessions generally equals more rhythm, which generally leads to more points. More points generally leads to wins (especially for this team). I would rather give up 35 points in a 12-possession game than 24 in an 8-possession game.
- We don’t like being pinned down in our own end. In the two losses against Indy and SD, it seemed as though we started multiple, consecutive drives inside our own 15. That doesn’t generally happen following turnovers or kickoffs, but does following time-consuming drives that end in a punt.
There are no guarantees, but this is about increasing the probability of victory. I did some quick and dirty math on scores from all 16 regular season games and San Diego’s games averaged 46.5 points, while ours averaged 63 points. Denver would have to play a game that is one full standard deviation less than the average to get down to San Diego’s average. Conversely, San Diego would have to play a game that is one full standard deviation greater than its average to get to Denver’s average game. Who’s game would we rather be playing?
I think that the chances of a Bronco victory are slightly better than 50/50 if the point total is less than 50. Those chances increase dramatically if we can get the point total to 60 or 70.
Do Fox and Del Rio have the guts to play "boom" and "bust" defense? I sure hope so.