Two years ago, Jim Irsay was faced with one of the most game changing, landscape altering decisions in NFL history. That decision, of course, was whether or not to keep Peyton Manning for the 2012 season after a serious neck injury and the best quarterback prospect since Manning himself ripe for the taking. We all know what he chose. But what if he chose to keep him? And how much could this one decision really change the NFL? You are about to find out. I know there have been many internet scenarios for this, but none are as in-depth as this one. Now, imagine yourself in another universe, or, in this case, Manningverse, where the Browns are Super Bowl contenders and Geno Smith is the Broncos' quarterback of the future...
(Note: I will break it down into three sections, 2012, 2013, and 2014.)
2012 NFL Season
2012 NFL Draft:
Here, I will list all of the significant draft picks that were directly effected by Manning staying in Indianapolis. The Colts might have gave away their first overall pick, but, to keep things simple, I will assume they decide to keep it.
Round 1, Pick 1: Indianapolis Colts
Original Pick: QB Andrew Luck
Manningverse Pick: RB Trent Richardson
The Colts now have no need for a franchise quarterback, so they will instead select the only non-QB prospect worthy of the first overall pick, Alabama's Trent Richardson. Now, you may be thinking, "Well, this would be a wasted pick, we all know he turned out as a bust." Not so fast. First, it is still too early to call him a bust. Second, he would be behind perhaps the best quarterback of all time. That is usually a recipe for running back success.
Round 1, Pick 2: Washington Redskins, from St. Louis
Original Pick: QB Robert Griffin III
Manningverse Pick: QB Andrew Luck
The Redskins still trade up for the number 2 pick, but this time, it is for Andrew Luck. Who would you rather have: the second-best quarterback prospect of the past few years, or the best quarterback prospect in the last 20 years? Enough said.
Round 1, Pick 3: Cleveland Browns, from Minnesota
Original Pick: RB Trent Richardson
Manningverse Pick: QB Robert Griffin III
Richardson is already gone, but you know who isn't? The most electrifying QB prospect ever. This is a no-brainier.
Round 1, Pick 22: Cleveland Browns, from Atlanta
Original Pick: QB Brandon Weeden
Manningverse Pick: RB Doug Martin
The Browns have their franchise quarterback, but are still missing their franchise running back. Hence Doug Martin, the second most complete halfback of the draft.
Round 1, Pick 31: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, from New England, via Denver
Original Pick: RB Doug Martin
Manningverse Pick: RB David Wilson
Doug Martin is gone, so they pick the last 1st-round worthy running back, David Wilson.
Round 1, Pick 32: New York Giants
Original Pick: RB David Wilson
Manningverse Pick: TE Coby Fleener
There are no more 1st-round worthy running backs left, so the Giants address their second biggest need, tight end.
Round 2, Pick 34: Indianapolis Colts
Original Pick: TE Coby Fleener
Manningverse Pick: WR Stephen Hill
The Colts need receiving help, and they can't get it in the form of a tight end, so they pick one of the better wide receiver prospects still on the board. Hill has a better start to his career with Peyton Manning passing to him instead of Mark Sanchez.
Round 2, Pick 43: New York Jets, from Seattle
Original Pick: WR Stephen Hill
Manningverse Pick: WR Alshon Jeffery
With their first choice at receiver gone, the Jets chose Alshon Jeffery instead. Jeffery turns out to be the better receiver and the Jets get a steal.
Round 2, Pick 54: Detroit Lions
Original Pick: WR Ryan Broyles
Manningverse Pick: WR Rueben Randle
The Bears pick Ryan Broyles instead of Jeffery, so the Lions are forced to chose someone else. Rueben Randle answers the call and turns out to be much better than Broyles anyway.
If you are curious, Brandon Weeden gets drafted in the 2nd round by the Buffalo Bills, shares the starting duties for the season, and is later traded to the Oakland Raiders.
Regular Season
Below are the new win-loss records and explanations for the teams that were majorly affected by Irsay's decision.
Indianapolis Colts:
Real Record: 11-5
Manningverse Record: 13-3
The Colts get two more wins because of Manning's experience and Richardson's skill set.
Washington Redskins:
Real Record: 10-6
Manningverse Record: 11-5
The Redskins get one more win simply because of Andrew Luck's ability to make players around him better.
Cleveland Browns:
Real Record: 5-11
Manningverse Record: 10-6
The Browns get five more wins because of their deadly offensive combination of RGIII and Doug Martin and their stout defense.
Denver Broncos:
Real Record: 13-3
Manningverse Record: 7-9
The Broncos endure another year of Tebow, but he can't muster enough 4th quarter comebacks this time and loses his job midway through the season. He is replaced by Brock Osweiler, who also doesn't play well. The team's surrounding talent helps them to a 7-9 record, but they fall one game short to the Chargers (8-8) and fail to win their division and make the playoffs.
Playoffs
Out: Bengals, Broncos
In: Browns, Chargers
The Super Bowl is exactly the same, but the Colts make a run at it also. The Browns also win a playoff game.
Coaching Changes
Everything is the same, except for the fact that Pat Shurmur keeps his job in Cleveland.
2013 NFL Season
2013 NFL Draft
The picks that turn out different because of Manning:
Round 1, A Pick Somewhere in Between Number 8 and Number 15: Denver Broncos
Pick: QB Geno Smith
The Broncos rid themselves of Tebow in the offseason and now need a new franchise quarterback. They decide to pull the trigger with their first round pick and draft Geno Smith.
Round 3, Pick 72: New York Jets
Original Pick: G Brian Winters
Manningverse Pick: QB Mike Glennon
When the Broncos draft Geno Smith in the first round, it makes him unavailable to the Jets in the second round. So, they are still in need of a quarterback when the third round comes along. Mike Glennon is the best quarterback availible and if they don't draft him now, the Buccaneers will come along and draft him one pick later. So, they pull the trigger.
Round 3, Pick 73: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Original Pick: QB Mike Glennon
Manningverse Pick: WR Terrance Williams
With Glennon off the board, the Bucs bolster their offense in a different way by snatching wide receiver Terrance Williams away from the Cowboys.
Round 3, Pick 74: Dallas Cowboys, from Carolina via San Francisco
Original Pick: WR Terrance Williams
Manningverse Pick: WR Keenan Allen
Williams was obviously the Cowboys' first choice with this pick, but he is gone. So what do they do? They draft one of the best offensive rookies of 2013 instead.
Note: After this a bunch of boring stuff happens and I want to conserve a little more space so I will not go over that.
Round 4, Pick 97: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, from Tennessee
Manningverse Pick: QB Matt Barkley
The Bucs lost Glennon earlier in the draft and still don't have their QB backup plan if Mike Freeman goes wrong (which he did). So, they leapfrog the Eagles and pick up Matt Barkley.
2013 Regular Season
The teams that were majorly affected by Manning in the regular season.
Indianapolis Colts:
Real Record: 11-5
Manningverse Record: 13-3
The Andrew Luck led Colts had the same record twice in a row, so why should that be any different for Manning? As for his passing numbers, I doubt he would have had those record breaking numbers with the Colts receiving core.
Washington Redskins:
Real Record: 3-13
Manningverse Record: 10-6
Luck would not have gotten himself injured in 2012, leaving him better than the season previous. However, the Redskins don't improve, mostly because of the Eagle's emergence in the division.
Cleveland Browns:
Real Record: 4-12
Manningverse Record: 11-5
The Browns, if they had gotten the offensive combination of Griffin and Martin, plus still having that stout defense, be a very good team in 2013. They might have had even more wins, but it is just hard for me to imagine the Browns winning on a consistent basis. I also have no idea if RGIII would have injured himself in this timeline. I imagine he probably would have.
Denver Broncos:
Real Record: 13-3
Manningverse Record: 9-7
One thing is for sure here, and that is that this would not be the highest scoring offense in NFL history with Geno Smith at the helm. The Broncos' other talent, and this is still a very talented team without Manning, drives them to a winning record. And who wins the division? The Kansas City Chiefs, of course, with a 12-4 record. The Chargers miss out on the playoffs, as Keenan Allen was a vital part to the Chargers' offensive success, and give their spot to the Broncos.
New York Jets:
Real Record: 8-8
Manningverse Record: 9-7
The Jets have Alshon Jeffery and Mike Glennon instead of Stephen Hill and Geno Smith. I'd have to say that is enough for a winning record and a near trip to the playoffs.
Playoffs
The playoff differences:
Out: Chargers, Eagles
In: Browns, Redskins
The AFC Championship is between the Colts and the Patriots, while the NFC Championship is the same. The Super Bowl is the Patriots and the Seahawks, and is much closer, with the Seahawks still coming out on stop.
Coaching Changes:
Everything is the same, except that Mike Shanahan keeps his job and Mike Pettine never gets hired because Pat Shurmur is still coaching the Browns.
2014 NFL Season
2014 NFL Draft
To round things out, we will look at how the 2014 Draft happens in this version of the NFL universe.
Round 1, Pick 5: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Original Pick (Pick 7): WR Mike Evans
Manningverse Pick: WR Sammy Watkins
The Browns and Redskins(Rams) are no longer picking in the top 5 (or top 20), so the Bucs move up two spots and nab Sammy Watkins with the 5th overall pick. Some might say Mike Evans is still a better fit here, but who could pass up Sammy Watkins?
Round 1, Pick 10: New York Giants
Original Pick: WR Odell Beckham Jr.
Manningverse Pick: WR Mike Evans
Mike Evans is the undisputed second best wide receiver in this draft. Evans is still there when the Giants pick. So, they pick him.
Round 1, Pick 27: Cleveland Browns, not from Indianapolis
Original Pick (Pick 22): QB Johnny Manziel
Manningverse Pick: WR Odell Beckham Jr.
The first round cornerbacks are all gone, and the rest of the defense is pretty much set. The offense is all set too. The only glaring need is for a receiver who can line up next to Josh Gordon. Luckily, Beckham is still here and the Browns pick him up.
Round 1, Pick 32: Minnesota Vikings, from Seattle
Original Pick: QB Teddy Bridgewater
Manningverse Pick: QB Johnny Manziel
The Vikings said after the draft that Manziel was slightly higher on their draft board than Bridgewater, and here he is, ripe for the taking.
Round 2, Pick 33: Houston Texans
Original Pick: G Xavier Su'a-Filo
Manningverse Pick: QB Teddy Bridgewater
You have to guess that the Texans were prepared to pick Bridgewater if he somehow fell to the second round, and in this universe, he does.
Well, that is how different the NFL would be if Manning was still in Indianapolis, and, as you can see, it has a major impact, with the shock waves stretching all the way to the 2014 draft and beyond. As always, feel free to comment below and present your opinion on this article. I also would appreciate suggestions on what future articles like this one could be based on (ex. What if JaMarcus Russell wasn't a bust? Don't suggest that one, I already plan to do it at some point.)
Previous Alternate NFL Articles:
None. This is the first one.
Next Alternate NFL Article:
What if David Carr wasn't a bust? (I will link to it once it is released, or you can view it on the Chiefs blog once it comes out in the next week or so.)
Thanks for reading!