FanPost

This Will be Sanders's Breakout Year


Some comments on the injury report thread got me thinking about Emmanuel Sanders and how he's doing compared to his years with the Steelers. He's performed excellently for us so far, but just how good is it compared to his career numbers? Is he, in fact, staring a breakout year in the face? Let's take a look!

(Note: I'm using numbers from ESPN's website...probably not the best source, but then it's gotta be hard to screw most of this up, so I think we're okay. And sorry if it's a bit long. I can't help getting wordy sometimes.)

Receptions:

  • 2010: (Steelers) 28 receptions on 49 targets (57%) in 13 games.
  • 2011: 22 receptions on 43 targets (51%) in 11 games.
  • 2012: 44 receptions on 73 targets (60%) in 16 games.
  • 2013: 67 receptions on 112 targets (60%) in 16 games.
  • 2014: (Broncos) 14 receptions on 18 targets (78%) in 2 games and counting.

In his career with the Steelers Sanders definitely wasn't the receiver getting most of the targets. When the ball did come his way, it resulted in a completion about 6 times out of every 10 targets. That may be on him, or it may not: Ben Roethlisberger is well known for his 'schoolyard' play style. Unfortunately, I don't currently have the free time I'd need to watch the tape and make any sort of amateur's conclusion for you fine folks, so I'll leave you to make what you will of it. I will note, however, that Sanders is almost 20% more likely so far to haul in a throw from Peyton.

And what about just straight-up target and reception numbers? 2013 was Sanders's best year with 67 receptions on 112 targets. In two games this season he's already at 21% of his 2013 receptions and 16% of his 2013 targets. Let's say his production drops off a bit with Welker back in the lineup so he's only getting 9/10ths of the passes he's been getting. We'll call it the 90% guesstimate. At that rate he'll rack up another 88 catches on 113 more targets for a regular season stat line of 102 catches on 131 targets. That's looking pretty darn awesome. But what's he doing with all those balls?

Yardage:

  • 2010: (Steelers) 376 total yards for a 13.4 yard-per-carry (YPC) average. (13 games)
  • 2011: 288 yards for a 13.1 YPC average. (11 games)
  • 2012: 626 yards for a 14.2 YPC average.
  • 2013: 740 yards for an 11.0 YPC average.
  • 2014: (Broncos) 185 yards for a 13.2 YPC average. (2 games)

This is pretty darn interesting. I think we're right in assessing Sanders as a burner and a deep, big-play threat. He's had some awesome long receptions for us already, and at this point it's still only his third best YPC average in his career. It'll be interesting to see how that YPC number moves as the season wears on- will it go up once he shifts outside with Welker back in the lineup? Will it go down due to occasional screen passes on the outside?

I'm actually a bit more interested in his yardage totals, though. One thing that stood out to me immediately is that he's only 103 yards short of his career low for a season. If Sanders ends up having an excellent game this weekend it's possible he could break past his worst season for yardage in a bare three games this season. So what's the rough prediction for his final regular season statline? I'll base it off the 102 receptions from the 90% guesstimate from above. 102 receptions for about 13.2 yards each comes out to 1,346 yards. Wowzers.

Will he actually achieve that number? My gut says probably not. But maybe so. After all, Decker racked up 1,288 yards last year as our #2 wideout. Is it realistic for Sanders to have his first 1,000+ yard season? Absolutely! In fact, barring injury, I see very little chance that he won't!

Longest Reception:

  • 2010: (Steelers) 35 yards
  • 2011: 32 yards
  • 2012: 37 yards
  • 2013: 55 yards
  • 2014: (Broncos) 48 yards

Sanders's 48 yarder last weekend put his longest for the season in 2nd place for his career in regard to longest reception of the season. The reason I included this section, though, is to make this prediction: His longest at the end of this season will be 60+ yards. This is the one section where I'm predicting more than what he's already produced. Watching the way he's burned teams for big chunks of territory early, I just can't help but think he's going to take the first play of a drive 80 yards to the house at some point this season.

First Downs:

  • 2010: (Steelers) 18 (13 games)
  • 2011: 17 (11 games)
  • 2012: 31
  • 2013: 37
  • 2014: (Broncos) 7 (2 games)

The 'Colonel' is on track for 49 first downs this season if he averages 3 per game, which is slightly less than what' he's averaged so far. Seems like a pretty reasonable number to me given his higher rate of catches.

Fumbles:

  • 2010: (Steelers) 0
  • 2011: 0
  • 2012: 2 (both lost)
  • 2013: 1 (recovered)
  • 2014: (Broncos) 0

Personally, I'm quite happy to see only two lost fumbles and three total out of 175 career receptions for Sanders. Including the recovered fumble, that means he's fumbled on 1.71% of his receptions. Eric Decker has fumbled four times in his career, losing three. He's had more receptions, though, and that means Decker has fumbled on 1.73% of his catches. Given that even Demaryius Thomas has fumbled 5 times, or 2.00% of his receptions in his career, I'll take that 1.71% rate every day. (Just for reference: Wes Welker dominates in ball protection, having fumbled 6 times on 841 career receptions for a rate of 0.71%. The dude's a boss.)

Touchdowns:

  • 2010: (Steelers) 2 (13 games)
  • 2011: 2 (11 games)
  • 2012: 1
  • 2013: 6
  • 2014: (Broncos) 0 (2 games)

Our final stat of the day, and currently the most nebulous. Sanders isn't a prototypical redzone threat in a Peyton Manning offense, where Manning likes his receivers tall for jump balls. He also hasn't been a touchdown machine in the past, though he had a very good year last year with the Steelers. There may be some potential for him in the redzone in a role more like Wes Welker's, though. While he hasn't seen the endzone yet in a Broncos uniform, I think we can expect Sanders to take several 20+ yarders to the house this year.

If we start seeing Latimer come in for redzone duty as the season continues, I think Sanders is who'll likely be coming off the field for it. That's just my gut feeling, though. Even so, I'll tab him for 8 to 10 touchdowns on the season.

The Wrap-Up:

After two games in Blue & Orange Emmanuel Sanders is on course to blow past his career high numbers in almost every major receiving statistic. He's proven to be a deep threat and a reliable pass catcher. He's already showing great connection and timing with Manning, and that will only get even better with time. I'm extremely excited to watch him this season and I think he's got some great stuff to bring for our Denver Broncos. So, with the usual stipulation about injury (knock on wood), I'm calling it here: Emmanuel Sanders will smash his career highs and have a breakout year. While he might or might not outpace Decker's numbers, his speed and skillset will force teams to adjust for him which opens opportunities for our other receivers. It's gonna be fun, my friends.

And on a personal note...I think evidence suggests Sanders was right with regard to his offseason comments comparing Roethlisberger to Peyton. But that's just this fan's opinion.

(Disclaimer: I'm no journalist, nor am I especially knowledgeable about football. If you see something that doesn't look right, let me know and we'll see about getting it fixed.)

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR.