FanPost

A hypothetical contract for Demaryius Thomas

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I've been reading quite a few posts and accompanying comment threads about DT's so-called holdout, his lack of a current contract, and the fact that he has not yet signed his 2015 franchise tag for $12.83M. Opinions about the situation are all over the map. Some think he shouldn't get paid more than an average of $10-11M per year. Others think he could and maybe should get $15-16M a year. Some think the Broncos should just let him play under the tag in 2015 and walk away in free agency in 2016. Others would like to see the Broncos sign him and trade him. That last scenario is unlikely in my opinion, partly because any prorated signing bonus money left to hit the cap at the time of the trade would hit the Bronco's cap in the form of a big chunk of dead money, and I think DT would be reluctant to sign a long term contract that doesn't give him a decent sized chunk of cash money up front for his family.

Well, it's the offseason. There isn't much to talk about, and since I fancy myself to be a "capologist," I decided to put together a hypothetical DT contract. I decided that since Elway and the Broncos are willing to pay $12.83M to franchise tag him, they're willing to pay $13M per year on the average to sign him to a long term contract. I also decided (quite arbitrarily) that my hypothetical contract would pay him less than $14M per year average. I looked at some other recent Broncos' contracts including Clady's and CHJ's. I also looked at some other teams' recent big player contracts including those for wide receivers Mike Wallace and Jeremy Maclin.

Based on recent history, the Broncos don't like to give out huge signing bonuses since they can lead to big dead money cap hits down the line if things don't work out. CHJ's recent $10M signing bonus is the largest one I know of under Elway. They also like to have most the guaranteed money in the first couple of years of the contract, another strategy to avoid potential big dead money cap hits down the line. They also don't tend to back load contracts like a lot of other teams do. In the later years of heavily back loaded contracts, a team may be forced to release players they'd like to keep because their cap hits have become too high. The team loses the player, and dead money results. The only other option is to restructure the contract, which often amounts to mortgaging the future in order to pay for the present, and leads to even more dead money. Elway HATES dead money because big dead money paves the road to cap hell.

My strictly hypothetical DT contract is a simple one. I wanted to keep the math simple and avoid the complications of workout bonuses and performance incentives. It's a 5 year contract for $67M with $31M guaranteed (just to outdo Mike Wallace's $30M guaranteed). That's an average of $13.4M per year. There is a $10M signing bonus (the same as CHJ's) that will prorated at $2M per year against the cap. There is also a $2M 2015 signing bonus. That means DT would receive $12M cash (before taxes) when he signed the contract if it was a real deal. The remaining $55M is the sum of the base salaries for all 5 years. The $10M signing bonus and the $2M 2015 signing bonus are of course fully guaranteed. So is the 2015 base salary of $9M. so is the 2016 base salary of $10M. That takes care of the $31M guaranteed money in the first 2 years.

Time to look at the contract, year by year:

2015: The cap hit is $13M ($2M prorated signing bonus + $9M base salary + $2M roster bonus). The potential dead money is $31M (ALL the guaranteed money).

2016: The cap hit is $12M ($2M prorated signing bonus + $10M base salary). The potential dead money is $18M (the $12M base salary + $8M of prorated signing bonus left to hit the cap).

2017: The cap hit is $13M ($2M prorated signing bonus + $11 base salary). The potential dead money is $6M ($6M of prorated signing bonus left to hit the cap).

2018: The cap hit is $14M. ($2M prorated signing bonus + $12M base salary). The potential dead money is $4M ($4M of prorated signing bonus money left to hit the cap).

2019: The cap hit is $15M. ($2M prorated signing bonus + $13M base salary). The potential dead money is $2M (the last of the prorated signing bonus left to hit the cap).

Now you get to tell me what you think about my hypothetical DT contract in the poll, and discuss it if you feel like it in the comments.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR.