We have covered the success rates of the running backs, so now let’s dig into another skill position. For tight ends, I focused on catches per game. I said that TEs with 3 or more catches per game and one or more TD every 3 games were elite (> or equal to 0.33 TD/game). That means that there have been five elite TEs drafted in the past decade of drafts out of 24 taken in the first or second round. See below.
How often do TEs taken in the first or second round become elite NFL players?
Player | AP1 | PB | CarAV | AV/yr | G | Rec/g | TD/g |
Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 4 | 56 | 8.0 | 88 | 4.6 | 0.78 |
Zach Ertz | 0 | 0 | 21 | 5.3 | 61 | 4.0 | 0.21 |
Greg Olsen | 0 | 3 | 54 | 5.4 | 158 | 3.9 | 0.33 |
Dustin Keller | 0 | 0 | 22 | 4.4 | 72 | 3.3 | 0.24 |
Eric Ebron | 0 | 0 | 12 | 4.0 | 40 | 3.3 | 0.20 |
Tyler Eifert | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3.0 | 37 | 3.3 | 0.54 |
Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 1 | 22 | 3.7 | 80 | 3.3 | 0.36 |
Brandon Pettigrew | 0 | 0 | 22 | 3.1 | 93 | 3.2 | 0.18 |
Jermaine Gresham | 0 | 2 | 26 | 3.7 | 105 | 3.2 | 0.26 |
Coby Fleener | 0 | 0 | 23 | 4.6 | 76 | 3.1 | 0.28 |
Martellus Bennett | 0 | 1 | 33 | 3.7 | 135 | 3.0 | 0.22 |
Zach Miller | 0 | 1 | 29 | 3.6 | 110 | 3.0 | 0.18 |
Jace Amaro | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.3 | 17 | 2.4 | 0.12 |
Hunter Henry | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4.0 | 15 | 2.4 | 0.53 |
John Carlson | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2.3 | 90 | 2.3 | 0.17 |
Fred Davis | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2.3 | 72 | 2.3 | 0.18 |
Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2.0 | 25 | 2.2 | 0.28 |
Lance Kendricks | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2.2 | 93 | 2.2 | 0.18 |
Maxx Williams | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.0 | 18 | 1.8 | 0.06 |
Devin Funchess | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4.0 | 31 | 1.7 | 0.29 |
Vance McDonald | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1.5 | 48 | 1.3 | 0.15 |
Gavin Escobar | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 62 | 0.5 | 0.13 |
Troy Niklas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 26 | 0.3 | 0.08 |
Richard Quinn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 30 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
So that’s a 21% chance of finding an elite TE in the first or second round. However, if you focus only on catches per game, 50% of the TEs taken in the first or the second round over the past decade made 3 or more catches per game during their careers. If we use that as the bar for “above average” then we are not that far off of the numbers from RBs, and, in fact, taking a RB in the 1st or 2nd appears to be a “safer” bet or at least as safe of a bet.