Mile High Report: FanPosts

An Overview of Manning's Career in the Playoffs.. Don't Be Affected by Prevailing Opinions

2013-05-19T04:57:17Z

In reading some of the comments of the many quality Broncos fans, I have come across a few comments here and there about Manning and the playoffs. The comments have denoted negativity in his playoff abilities. And I understand why. That is the notoriety that he has carried for awhile now. And in his first year in a Broncos uniform, he makes the game deciding mistake in the overtime of the Raven nightmare.

But as a guy that has watched him pretty closely for a decade, I just want to give some perspective on the matter. I don't want to write a blind defense of his mistakes. But to offer a broader viewpoint. Colts fans knew Manning and understood what he had done in the regular season and the playoffs. Tho understandable, it's a little strange to read comments from Broncos fans who speak negatively of Peyton. They may not be completely mistaken, but they didn't watch him closely for a decade. They may react to what his reputation has been. Peyton is now a Bronco. That was his choice. And I hate to see comments of the good Mile High fans in a negative light when it comes to the man who is committed to being your Quarterback.

A fan has a right to criticize a player. And perhaps at this point you owe him nothing. And if you feel that Manning is a bad playoff quarterback, it doesn't mean that you hate him and are rooting against him. You are a Broncos fan, so you want the Broncos to win regardless of who the QB is. But I think its good to have a broader perspective on how he has gotten that reputation. And good for Bronco country not to add to the negativity.

I have read many comments from media and observers about Manning and his playoff career the last few years out of curiosity. They are wide ranging. Some say that he is fatally flawed and cannot perform in the playoffs. His sub .500 record proves clearly that he is a choker and incapable of leading a team in the postseason.. Others suggest that all of Peyton's playoff losses have been a result of complete failure by his teammates and coaches, and that he is pretty much free from blame... Those are the extremes.. Most opinions are somewhere in the middle. Some saying that tho he has not always been terrible, he is clearly not the same quarterback in the postseason.. Others saying, while he has not been perfect in the postseason, at times he has been great. And he has not benefited from ever having what wins championships, a really good defense.

First I think it is good to look at how he first developed that reputation. It started early on in his career. I thought I would go through his whole career and give an overview of what happened to the Manning lead Colts over the years.

1999-2006

The Colts were a cellar dwelling team that Manning helped elevate to the playoffs in his second year. However they could not get over the hump, losing in three straight playoff games in '99 '00 and '02. The voices were starting to raise that Peyton couldn't win a game in the playoffs. And he didn't play particularly well in those games. He tried to do too much and made mistakes that were uncharacteristic.

2003 Soon the Tony Dungy era would come in and give some structure to the defense. Dwight Freeney was brought in through the draft. One of the worst defenses in the league would make some improvement. In 2003, the Colts broke out of the postseason slump, coincidentally against the franchise Peyton would join in the twilight of his career. The Colts did not punt once in this game against the Broncos. Peyton was 22 for 26 and threw for 377 yards and five touchdowns. Then they went onto the next round to beat the Chiefs in another game in which the punter stayed on the sidelines. But the postseason ended on a snowy night in New England a week later. Peyton played terrible getting picked off four times and throwing the ball into coverage where it should not have been thrown. Colts fans were upset at the physicality of the the New England defense. It was very physical with the WR's, throwing them off of their timed routes.

2004 A similar story line played out the next year. Again Peyton puts up good numbers against Denver: 458 yards 4 TD's and 1 INT. But then another visit to New England, with the haunted snowy weather waiting for them again. It ended with the offense not even getting to the end zone. The offense just could never get it going. Peyton couldn't get it going, WR's dropped passes, and the run defense could not get the Pats off the field in the second half. Another crushing defeat. 238 yards 1 INT

Manning had played a few really good games to this point. But now many questioned if he can win the big playoff games.

2005 The next season the Colts came out of the gates on fire. This was Mannings record breaking 49 touchdown in 15 games season. Yet they lost a few at the end of the season, and rested the starters on the final game. Tony Dungy's son committed suicide right before the playoffs, casting a dark shadow over the team. The Colts came out of the bye week flat. After not playing a meaningful game for three weeks, they got into a hole early. Manning got sacked 5 times by the relentless Blitzing of the Pittsburgh D. After climbing out of the hole, and getting a few breaks to go their way, Vanderjagt missed the field goal at the end of the game for the victory. After finally sealing home field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Colts were ousted after one game. For the third year in a row, the eventual champion took them out.

2006 The next postseason didn't look hopeful. The Colts brought arguably their worse run defense of the decade, the team stumbling into the playoffs after a great start. But then something clicked. Tony Dungy got the D playing good, disciplined run defense against teams they knew were going to run the football. Manning did not play great in these games, but the run defense held. Manning had the opportunity to make some big plays, and the Colts advanced past the Chiefs and the Ravens to go to the AFC championship game. They would be going home to face the nemesis that stood in their way yet again. It was New England vs. Indianapolis, this time in the Dome.

The game started just like the others. I watched in disbelief as Peyton threw a pass that Ty Law played perfectly for a pick 6. The Pats opened with a 20-3 lead, and the same storyline was playing out. The pressure was very heavy on the team as they faced another uphill battle. This time at home. But just before the half in the 2 minute offense, Indy marched down to score a touchdown. They would receive the ball after halftime. There was a little optimism heading into halftime. Then they came out of the intermission and scored another touchdown. 20-17. The second half was an epic, back and forth battle that played out into the final minutes.

The often criticized Manning headed the troops out with a few minutes left, down by three points. Peyton guided his offense down the field, and Joseph Addai capped off the game winning touchdown with under a minute to go. It was the game winner and the Colts were going to the Super Bowl.

The Super Bowl didn't start promising, with inclimate weather and a game opening Devin Hester kickoff return touchdown. But after a Bob Sanders forced fumble and Colt score later in the game, the Colts got the lead and held on, Rex Grossman sealing the victory with his terrible arm. And Peyton Manning had his first trophy.

2007-2013

So to this point, Manning had played a few spectacular games. He had also played some horrific ones. He had gotten over the hump. But his super bowl playoff run numbers were not pretty. 3 TD's 7 INT's.. He had built a reputation that he would still be criticized against for the next five years. Yet, Manning was much more consistent in the years after the super bowl. . But the team was past it's peak. They were at their best from 2003-2006. In '07, WR Marvin Harrison went down and never recovered. The offensive line, which was stout for years, was starting to decline. On the defensive side of the ball, Bob Sanders had been a bright spot. But he would be plagued with injuries for the next few years rarely getting onto the football field. Still, they had a good team going into the 07 playoffs, and the monkey was off of Manning's back.

2007 But then came the pesky San Diego Chargers. This was a team that always gave the Colts fits. In '07 they went into Indy and won a tight game at the hands of Billy Volek. Yea.. Billy Volek. The starter went down, but the defense could not stop Volek as he lead the offense to a fourth quarter comeback victory. Manning threw for 402 yards 3 TD's 2 INT's. I missed this game thankfully, so I can't really recollect how that happened.

2008 The 12-4 Colts entering the '08 playoffs had finished 2nd in the division. They had to travel to 8-8 division winning San Diego in the wild card round. This game I saw. Manning played solid. He threw for 310 yards and a touchdown. The MVP of the game was the punter for the Chargers. He pinned the Colts deep multiple times. The Colts had the worst starting field position for any team on the road in the playoffs in the last 30 years. At the end of the fourth, he pinned them deep again. The offense couldn't get out and the game went into overtime. Darren Sproles, who was unstoppable in this game, scored on the game winning drive on the first possession of the overtime.

2009 The '09 season, was in my opinion, Manning's greatest season. They had perhaps the worst running team in football. Two late round draft pick WR's were in the starting lineup with Harrison, Gonzales, and Stokley now gone. The defense played solid at times, but was far from a dominant defense. It was a team that I observed should have lost a number of games. A team not much different than the one that would go 2-14 two years later. They were behind by three scores in the fourth quarter to the Texans twice, and the Patriots once. They allowed over 200 yards rushing to the Miami Dolphins wildcat offense and barely saw the football in the game(a game similar to the opening game last year between Broncos and Steelers). Yet they found a way to win all of those games. It seemed to be a team of destiny. They went 14-0 and were about to beat the Jets before they pulled the starters.

Manning continued his solid play in the playoffs. After several weeks of rest, the talk was all about the Colts coming out flat. But they opened up the game with a drive resulting in a field goal. The run defense held solid all game. The Colts scored two TD s right before the half. And coasted in the 2nd to win by a score of 20-3. Manning threw for 246 yards, 2 TD's and 1 INT against a very good defense.

The next week the Colts faced the Jets. New York boasted the number one defense and the number one rushing offense. The first half went exactly as the Jets could have hoped. They got a couple of big plays over the top of the defense, and went into halftime with a lead. Not a good thing when you are facing a team with great coverage and solid running. But the offense came out of the 2nd half and shredded the secondary apart. They got the lead and killed the clock with a series of short passes (because they could not run the football at all) to ice the game. Manning threw for 377 yards and 3 TD's. The Colts were going back to the Super Bowl.

In the big game, things continued well as the Colts opened up a 10-3 lead. Peyton took a knee with less than a minute to go in the half, within their own 20 yard line. They were to get the ball coming out of the half.

Then Sean Payton disturbed to flow of destiny. A gutsy, unforeseen onside kick to open the half slipped threw Hank Baskett's hands and the Saints recovered. It was a momentum changer that got the Saints rolling. Both offenses moved the ball well in the 2nd half. Dwight Freeney had ankle issues and was not able to disrupt the pocket like normal. The Saints took the lead late and Manning had the ball down by 7 with less than five minutes to go in the game.

My exaggerated memory tells me the Saints were playing in front of a home crowd that day. The defense was humming. They could smell the trophy and were after it. Late in the 4th, The Colts neared mid-field and were looking like they were moving the football again. I felt like they were moving to score. A second down screen play looked promising, but was broken up and stopped for no gain by the aggressive Saints D. Now 3rd and 10, down 7, with about 4 minutes left. It didn't feel right.

Manning calls a bread and butter play on a short pass to Reggie Wayne. Tracy Porter sniffed the play and gambled. (According to Tony Dungy) Wayne didn't run a good route. Manning threw into coverage that he shouldn't have, not expecting Porter to pounce. A play that falls on Manning's shoulders that would hurt his legacy more than any other play in his career. The play resulted in a pick 6 and the clincher in the game. Manning's numbers were 333 yards 1 TD 1 INT. A nearly flawless regular season and postseason ended very sour.

2010 The Colts suffered significant injuries and Manning played one of his worst as a pro the following regular season. The Colts were at 6-6 and in danger of not making the playoffs. Manning had just finished throwing a horrendous 11 INT's in three games. They pulled together and finished the season 10-6 to win the division and were to host a home game. It would be a repeat of last years AFC championship.

Peyton played solid in this one. It was a low scoring game. The Jets ruled the clock in the second half with their ground and pound style. They drained the clock and took the lead late in the fourth quarter to go up 14-13. Manning lead the offense down for a field goal with under a minute left. 16-14. The Jets took the kickoff to near midfield. One pass by Sanchez put the Jets in field goal range. And immediately they were trying to kill the clock. The field goal was made, and Peyton had played his last game as a Colt. 225 yards 1 TD

2012 And that brings us to the Bronco era. Peyton rides a different horse into the playoffs after missing 2011 with neck surgeries. This time he brings a top 5 defense with him and all of the expectations of a super bowl. No need to go into detail of what happened here. Peyton played well enough to win this one in regulation. But made a bad error in the overtime to seal the strangest of defeats.

What A Look AT His Career Shows

I am not huge into numbers, but they tell part of the story. So here they are:

1999- 2005 - 273 Yds a game 15 TD's 8 INT's W-L: 3-6

2006 - 258 Yds a game 3 TD's 7 INT's W-L: 4-0

2007-2012 - 311Yds a game 14 TD's 6 INT's W-L: 2-5

In looking at his career in the playoffs, I look at it in two sections. He struggled early in his career at times from '99 to '06. But has been consistently solid since. He played well enough to win games, but the Colts as a team didn't always pull through. Peyton made some pretty notable mistakes, not rising to the occasion at times. The great preparer didn't always do so well at the moments he couldn't fully prepare for.

There is certainly some truth in that he struggled at times, and also in the fact that Colt teams were not complete. Offense wins in the regular season, but defense gets a team over the hump to win the championship. It's not shocking that when the D was at it's best, the Colts advanced to two super bowls. Otherwise they had a defense that was ranked in the bottom half of the league and played like it. They very often were contenders but not expected to win it all in most years. And It does seem like a lot of things happened that were out of the ordinary, and worked against Peyton as he lead the Colts over the years. Here is an article with a little bit of bias, but some interesting points along those lines:

http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/2013/01/13/peyton-mannings-eight-one-and-done-nfl-playoffs-learn-what-you-are-criticizing/

But let me say something I've said before and I'll say again. Manning is often quickly labeled as a bad playoff qb due to his playoff record. But a quarterback should not merely be judged by his playoff record. 9-11 should not define Peyton. This is a team sport. Peyton controls a lot, moreso than other quarterbacks. But he cannot control everything. A record for a Tennis player should define him. It is an individual sport. Roger Federer doesn't serve and then a different, below average returner takes his spot when his opponent serves. In football there are a lot more variables than other sports. There are 22 players on a football field at one time. 106 players on two rosters. To blame one individual for a team record is shallow.

Peyton Criticized More Closely

And I do believe that Peyton, due to his earlier playoff struggles is much more scrutinized than other elite quarterbacks. Tom Brady is a great quarterback. I view him as a good QB in the playoffs. I am not going to argue about who is the better all around QB. That's a different topic that has been beaten to death. But if you were to ask people who they would rather have in a playoff game, most would answer Brady. But it's interesting to compare the two in the last seven years.

For example, A week after Manning gets smashed by fans and media for the Ravens loss, Brady and the Pats were scoreless in the second half. Brady threw two picks and got "out dueled" by Joe Flacco. Baltimore beat them 28-13. What did people talk about after? Brady's two picks? A scoreless 3rd and 4th quarter? They talked about Ridley's fumble and Welkers dropped catch. I don't think Brady choked. I don't blame him for the loss. Just like I don't blame Manning for the loss to the Ravens. But my point is: people criticize Manning more severely due to his playoff record. Here is some interesting stat comparisons since Manning's super bowl year in '06:

Brady from '06-'12- in 13 games: 265 Yds a game 27 TD's 17 INT's W-L of 7-6 2 Super Bowl appearances

Manning from '06-'12 In 11 games: 311Yds a game 17 TD's 13 INT's W-L of 6-5 2 Super Bowl appearances

The numbers are pretty similar. And I just see that in general, the mistakes of other Quarterbacks are not as highly criticized as Manning's, due to his reputation.

So again, Peyton is labeled by many that didn't watch his career closely, as a bad playoff QB. Or an under performing playoff QB. However you feel, I don't want Broncos fans to be influenced by other peoples hazy opinions.

I think it is good not to add to the overblown struggles of Manning's career. To appreciate that he is fully capable of playing good, and sometimes fantastic in the playoffs. To not take the magic of the Broncos 2011 season, and try to cast a spell on the current Manning era. To support the guy who is helping develop young offensive talent. Helping provide experience that will help the young Broncos in the future.

This is by far the best team that Manning has ever been a part of. Not only did they make some nice offseason additions. But they added an edge from the loss against the Ravens. Manning was a good fit for Denver. And Denver was a good fit for Manning. It's a good football marriage. Now it's time for Manning and the Broncos to shut up the haters and "put a ring on it".

1999-2006

Manning had played a few really good games to this point. But now many questioned if he can win the big playoff games.

2007-2013

What A Look AT His Career Shows

I am not huge into numbers, but they tell part of the story. So here they are:

1999- 2005 - 273 Yds a game 15 TD's 8 INT's W-L: 3-6

2006 - 258 Yds a game 3 TD's 7 INT's W-L: 4-0

2007-2012 - 311Yds a game 14 TD's 6 INT's W-L: 2-5

http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/2013/01/13/peyton-mannings-eight-one-and-done-nfl-playoffs-learn-what-you-are-criticizing/

Peyton Criticized More Closely

Brady from '06-'12- in 13 games: 265 Yds a game 27 TD's 17 INT's W-L of 7-6 2 Super Bowl appearances

Manning from '06-'12 In 11 games: 311Yds a game 17 TD's 13 INT's W-L of 6-5 2 Super Bowl appearances

The numbers are pretty similar. And I just see that in general, the mistakes of other Quarterbacks are not as highly criticized as Manning's, due to his reputation.

Freeney to the Chargers

2013-05-18T19:55:45Z

What do you all think of this? I thought that we'd still get him, but I feel confident in our DLine and think we could still pick up Abraham. I'm not that worried about Freeney facing Clady, after all.

What do you all think? Should we have given more effort in obtaining him, or will our DLine be sufficient to destroy the rest of the AFC West and beyond?

I like Freeney, but am not entirely sad we missed out. I'd rather have Phillips.

What do you all think? Should we have given more effort in obtaining him, or will our DLine be sufficient to destroy the rest of the AFC West and beyond?

I like Freeney, but am not entirely sad we missed out. I'd rather have Phillips.

Calikula's Imperial Weekend Thread: Hello? Is anyone here? Edition

2013-05-17T20:38:15Z

Happy Friday folks!! The weekend thread is back again baby!! This past week, we've been plagued by electronic gremlins that have been making this place screwy lately. I still cant see the non-recommended fan-posts on the right of the screen, can you? So if this thread isnt as kickin' as it has been lately, I will understand :'( Just don't judge too harshly as I cry myself to sleep eating some Ben and Jerry's while holding my stuffed Bronco.

Ground Rules:

1. No cursing. If you must do a F*** or a sh** but lets keep it PG 13 folks.

2. Leave bad blood at the door. If you got beef with someone, don't continue it here.

3. Leave trolling at the door as well. If you must troll, please come up with something more clever-er than "Donkeys" Also applies to us as well, folks. Lets leave the trash talking of other teams for other threads. Gotta set the example!

4. Dont turn this place into a mess of a thread over politics, race, war religion, etc.

5. Respect each other.

Don't follow these rules, and my Imperial Homies Bronco Mike and Tim Lynch will handle ya'. Here's a pic:

So news out there is slow this week:

Spurs vs Memphis: Who do you like? If the Grizz go all the way that will make Peyton and his Wifey very happy

Pacers vs Knicks and do either one stand a chance against the Heat anyway?

Have the Rock Dogs come out of their slump?

Can we get a countdown here to when football season starts again?

Calikula's Quote of the Week:

Awesome scene from an all time great movie about Marines (warning: Language)

And the Hot Chick of the Week:

enjoy

Ground Rules:

1. No cursing. If you must do a F*** or a sh** but lets keep it PG 13 folks.

2. Leave bad blood at the door. If you got beef with someone, don't continue it here.

4. Dont turn this place into a mess of a thread over politics, race, war religion, etc.

5. Respect each other.

Don't follow these rules, and my Imperial Homies Bronco Mike and Tim Lynch will handle ya'. Here's a pic:

So news out there is slow this week:

Spurs vs Memphis: Who do you like? If the Grizz go all the way that will make Peyton and his Wifey very happy

Pacers vs Knicks and do either one stand a chance against the Heat anyway?

Have the Rock Dogs come out of their slump?

Can we get a countdown here to when football season starts again?

Calikula's Quote of the Week:

Awesome scene from an all time great movie about Marines (warning: Language)

And the Hot Chick of the Week:

enjoy

Peyton Manning Cannot Play in the Cold: A Quick Statistical Analysis

2013-05-16T23:34:07Z

via extras.mnginteractive.com

We've all heard it. Peyton is arguably the greatest fair weather quarterback in the history of the NFL.

I know that it crossed my mind, and many of your minds during the Baltimore loss in last season's playoffs. That said, Manning still posted a QBR of almost 90, and threw for just shy of 300 yards. Even the most cynical of us would have a tough time pinning that loss on Manning, despite the bitter cold. This got me thinking. Is the idea of Manning's performance levels being directly related to weather conditions a fallacy? We hear this statement thrown around a lot, but I cannot recall ever seeing a real statistical breakdown...

Introduction and Disclaimers

Before you read any further, there are a couple of things that you should keep in mind.

Firstly, this is hardly a definitive statistical analysis. I'm not a huge stat guy, I did this for my own interests but thought that some MHR readers might also find interest in the piece. If I've made any errors in my tests, please do flag these up, but try not to tear me apart!

Secondly; I'm going to try and keep this as neutral and purely factual as possible. Statistics are a great measure of performance, but it is important to take into account that football is a human endeavor. There are millions of variables to take into account (Peyton cannot control the other 10 players for example), and no matter how statistically significant something may appear to be, it does not make it definitely so. This isn't biology and chemistry class. I have only attempted to bring a quick focus to a few key statistics. Hopefully though we'll at least be able to spot some trends.

Methodology

For anybody with ANY sort of interest in statistics, if you haven't already then do check out pro-football-reference.com. All of the data I used for this analysis was taken from that site. I took game logs for every single Peyton Manning regular season game prior to his arrival in Denver. I then also took the temperature readings for each of these individual games. I did not include playoff statistics (as it could be argued - and has in the past - that Manning is simply not often at his best in playoff situations, regardless of the colder weather in January), nor did I include last seasons statistics as any 'struggles' (a word I use lightly) may be attributed to his rehabilitation.

It is worth noting that any indoor game is registered at 72 degrees (f) - i.e. relatively warm conditions, with 0 wind. Given that around half of Peyton Manning's games were played in these conditions, I realize that any correlations could arguably be skewed by home-field advantage arguments, or the idea that Manning just plays better indoors (though it might be fair to assume that this in itself would be as a result of the calm conditions).

If anybody would like this data sending to them, I'd be more than happy to share it with you! Now onto the analysis.

Quarterback Rating

via s23.postimg.org

The above graphs depict Peyton Manning's Average Quarterback Rating against the temperature (f) in a game. There does appear to be a positive correlation, albeit quite weak. The spikes and troughs are mostly a result of only one or two games having been played at an exact temperature, but what is clear that Manning's worst games have come in the coldest conditions - even if the overall correlation is only very weak.

Using a quick Spearman's Rank test, it was determined that there was a correlation co-efficient of 0.31. This is relatively weak, though assuming my calculations are correct (largely a result of Manning's healthy sample size) with a T-test score of 2.15 we can assume that there is a less than 5% probability that this correlation occurred by chance.

Win Percentage

The quarterback rating system has its critics. Winning is much harder to argue against. Again I used Spearman's Rank methodology to test for correlation in this case. Interestingly my results were significantly stronger this time around. I calculated a correlation of 0.4, with a T-test score of 2.5. In essence this means that the correlation was stronger, and there was less room for error.

By making a rather hideous looking graph, a line of best fit clearly shows this correlation between better conditions and win percentage:

via s23.postimg.org

Conclusion

The aim of this project wasn't really to reach a conclusion, it was rather a way for myself to just ever so quickly and briefly explore the notion that Manning was genuinely a better player in warmer conditions. Again, this is hardly definitive (I only actually mapped a total of 3 simple variables!), but thought that I might share it with you guys at MHR. It's probably fair to assume that almost all quarterbacks play better in more favorable weather conditions. That said, there certainly does seem to at least be a correlation in Manning's case, particularly when it comes to winning football games.

via extras.mnginteractive.com

We've all heard it. Peyton is arguably the greatest fair weather quarterback in the history of the NFL.

Introduction and Disclaimers

Before you read any further, there are a couple of things that you should keep in mind.

Methodology

Quarterback Rating

via s23.postimg.org

Win Percentage

By making a rather hideous looking graph, a line of best fit clearly shows this correlation between better conditions and win percentage:

via s23.postimg.org

Conclusion

Kickers (#?$#%?) - Critically Evaluating Prater's Performance

2013-05-16T17:26:19Z

I saw the post defending Prater and it raised some questions in my mind.

1. How did Prater compare to the rest of the league last year?

2. How does Prater compare to the rest of the league over the past decade?

3. Does he bring advantages to outweigh any of his flaws?

Read on to find out more about our place kicker and whether or not we should be looking for a replacement...

I saw the post defending Prater and it raised some questions in my mind.

1. How did Prater compare to the rest of the league last year?

2. How does Prater compare to the rest of the league over the past decade?

3. Does he bring advantages to outweigh any of his flaws?

Read on to find out more about our place kicker and whether or not we should be looking for a replacement...

Prater has been the Broncos starting kicker since 2008. His career number look like this in terms of FG performance. Prater has actually missed two XPs - but I think one was blocked.

Prater'c career accuracy

	<20	20-29	30-39	40-49	50+
Made	1	36	39	26	15
Attempts	1	39	43	45	20
% made	100.0%	92.3%	90.7%	57.8%	75.0%

We see that Prater during his career has been horrible hitting on distances from 40-49 yards, while he has been great from 50 or more yards out. Prater's career FG% is 79.1% (that includes his brief stint with the Falcons). Ok, but how did the rest of the league do last year and how has the league down over the past decade. We need to put his accuracy into context.

League-wide 2012 FG accuracy

	<20	20-29	30-39	40-49	50+
Made	16	215	270	259	92
Attempts	16	223	303	323	151
% made	100.0%	96.4%	89.1%	80.2%	60.9%

League-wide over the past decade

	Overall league-wide			Range
	FGA	FGM	%	<20	20-29	30-39	40-49	50+
2012	1016	852	83.9%	100.0%	96.4%	89.1%	80.2%	60.9%
2011	1002	831	82.9%	100.0%	96.2%	86.9%	74.2%	64.3%
2010	930	768	82.6%	100.0%	96.1%	88.5%	73.7%	55.1%
2009	873	714	81.8%	100.0%	96.8%	82.9%	74.7%	52.9%
2008	971	827	85.2%	100.0%	98.1%	90.1%	75.1%	64.6%
2007	947	788	83.2%	100.0%	95.4%	90.9%	74.5%	46.8%
2006	941	767	81.5%	100.0%	95.5%	85.7%	73.5%	47.6%
2005	965	783	81.1%	100.0%	95.2%	85.3%	71.5%	53.3%
2004	870	703	80.8%	100.0%	96.4%	81.5%	72.0%	58.2%
2003	953	756	79.3%	100.0%	96.4%	82.7%	69.4%	48.4%
Average			82.2%	100.0%	96.3%	86.3%	73.9%	55.2%

Ok, so now we see why Prater has started to catch some flack. He is below average overall in terms of accuracy. Over the past decade FGs have been hit at 82.2% and Prater is at 79.1% for his career - below average. Over the past decade the league average accuracy from 40-49 yards out is 73.9%. Prater's career accuracy from that range is 57.8%. Prater is probably the worst kicker in the league from that range over the past decade. If you focus on last year there were three other kickers who had problems from that distance Bironas (5 of 10), Akers (7 of 13) and Gostkowski (9 of 13). However, each of those guys has been much better throughout their careers than Prater from 40-49: Bironas 77.4%, Akers 68.1% and Gostkowski 70.9%. Additionally it is not like Prater has had one bad year from this distance to mess up his average. He has been poor from 40-49 yards throughout his career. in his first two seasons (07 and 08) he was a combined 5-14 from this range. In 09 and 10 he was a combined 12 of 15 (80% which would be above average most years). In the past two seasons he regressed to his old form hitting only 8 of 17 from 40-49 yards. So he can be average to above average from this distance, but he hasn't been for most of his career. That's the bad with Prater.

Now let's look at the good things that Prater brings:

Prater is better than average from 30-39 and from 50 and beyond. His career 90.7% is great relative to the league over the past decade (86.3%). His career average from 50 and beyond is amazing 75.0% compared to the league average of 55.2%. Now some might argue that he is aided by the altitude, but it doesn't matter how far you can kick the ball if you can't get it to go between the uprights. Matt is the second most accurate kicker in NFL history from 50 and beyond (although that is for a minimum 15 attempts - Blair Walsh of the Vikings was an astounding 10 for 10 from 50+ last year). It is interesting to note that accuracy throughout the league from 50+ has gone up in the past two years. I'm curious to see if it stays up. I would also be interesting to see how often the league hits at 60% or more from 50+ and beyond historically. My instincts tell me that there can't have been many years with better than 60% accuracy. Another interesting point is that Phil Dawson has hit 14 of 15 FGs (93.3%) from 50 or more over the past two years, but he is still only 24 of 34 for his career (70.6%).

So what about the other aspect of the game that you need from your placekicker? That would be how well they tackle and Prater is a great tackler, for a kicker (3 tackles last year). Just kidding. That other aspect would be how often they force your opponent to start drives on their own 20 (or worse if their idiot returner tries to bring one out from 9 yards deep in the end zone). So here are the Broncos, i.e. Prater's, touchback %s since 2006 - keep in mind the rule change in 2011 moving the kickoff point up by 5 yards. I threw in 06 and 07 to see how Prater compares to Elam in his last two years with Denver

	touchback %
year	Denver	vs Denver	League
2006	25.33%	30.38%	12.98%
2007	17.11%	29.89%	12.12%
2008	22.62%	25.00%	14.40%
2009	35.90%	26.25%	16.32%
2010	28.21%	36.73%	15.92%
2011	69.62%	52.43%	43.60%
2012	64.15%	48.72%	43.71%

The caveat with this data is that because of the altitude Prater has an advantage in terms of touchback percentage, but you can see that Prater is still better than what was done against Denver in most years, that is he is much better than the average kicker on KOs even if you remove the altitude factor. IIRC he had some leg-fatigue late in the season in 2010 that caused his kickoffs to all be short. Looking at 2007 you can see one of the reasons why Elam was not brought back - Elam (or whoever was kicking off for us then if it wasn't Elam) was not getting the job done. So Prater definitely adds value to the team in terms of opponent's field position.

Another point in Praters favor is his "clutchiness." According to this article "there is no decline in accuracy" for FGs in clutch situations (tied or losing by 3 or fewer late). So if Prater is average in those situations it is to be expected and if he is better than normal in those situations he is "clutch". Looking at the team's website tell's you just how WELL Prater has fared in those clutch situations: Has made 40-of-43 career field goal attempts in the fourth quarter or overtime, including four game-winning field goals on the last play of the game in 2011 (3 in OT, 1 one last play of regulation) to tie for the second most in a single season in NFL history. That is pretty "clutch." For his career he is 59 of 74 (79.8%) when we are losing by 7 or less or tied. So he has done what he normally does - hit his average - when we are close but behind or tied, and he is really good when it is late in the game (40 of 43 is 93.0%). Being money when it is late and close is the definition of "clutch". So ask yourself whether it would be easy to replace a guy who actually gets more accurate during clutch situations?

The last piece of the equation is the money. Prater is making a lot of money for a kicker, although he (according to this reference) is not one of the top 10 highest paid kickers. Prater is scheduled to make 2.5 million in 2013 which would put him in the top 10 in terms of highest paid kickers (unless I am doing the math wrong). So the question from a business standpoint is whether or not we could get a kicker who is better than or equal to Prater for the same amount of money or less (less being preferable)? I think we would be hard pressed to do so.

I'll close with this - to win the super bowl your team needs to be AT LEAST average in all facets of the game and elite in a few of them. While I would hate to lose the super bowl on a missed 43 yard FG (hello, Buffalo), I would also hate to not get there because the Broncos didn't have a kicker who could hit from 59 yards away to tie a game and send it into overtime. My final take is that Prater is worth the money even if he has trouble hitting from 40-49 yards out. What do you think?

Poll

What should the Broncos do regarding Matt Prater?

Kevin Reddick?

2013-05-14T16:45:02Z

Does anyone know why Kevin Reddick fell out of the draft? At one point he was in the top 20 on Kiper's big board, numerous mocks have him in the 2nd through 4th round. He has the size and athleticism to play MLB. From the 4th on I was hoping we'd take him and thought it would have been a steal. I know he signed with the Saints but still wondering what the story was??

Roster Projections Pre-Training Camp

2013-05-14T06:21:25Z

Hello friends, it has been almost a year since I have posted anything and thought I would come back with a little debate fodder for you!

Below is a picture of my projected roster minus two spots as well as an explanation of a few things

via fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net

Noteable Omissions:

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: Sorry, I think he will be cut based on our draft. I am willing to eat crow on that one but he doesn't mesh well with everyone else and the style of all other corners.
Lance Ball: Thank God
Manny Ramirez: not a man-ram guy
College Free Agents: one may stick but I only left two slots on the roster open

Noteable Keepers:

Julius Thomas: I think Thomas is more of a favorite than people think. Again, I am willing to be wrong here
Stewart Bradley: I like him as a flex LB someone who is a jack of all trades master of none. God, remember 2008 when all our starting LB's were that way?
Chris Kuper: I think Chris is willing to stay with a pay cut and perhaps be the swing guard.
Knowshon Moreno: a lot of chatter about how KM may be cut, but hes far more talented that Lance Ball, Jerimiah Johnson, Mario Fannin and any other scrap heap back sitting around

So the questions to all of you readers:

WHO ON THIS LIST GETS CUT? (if any)
WHO FILLS THE REMAINING TWO SLOTS? (names)
WHO IS MISSING ON THIS LIST? (specifically)

GO BRONCOS!

Hello friends, it has been almost a year since I have posted anything and thought I would come back with a little debate fodder for you!

Below is a picture of my projected roster minus two spots as well as an explanation of a few things

via fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net

Noteable Omissions:

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: Sorry, I think he will be cut based on our draft. I am willing to eat crow on that one but he doesn't mesh well with everyone else and the style of all other corners.
Lance Ball: Thank God
Manny Ramirez: not a man-ram guy
College Free Agents: one may stick but I only left two slots on the roster open

Noteable Keepers:

Julius Thomas: I think Thomas is more of a favorite than people think. Again, I am willing to be wrong here
Stewart Bradley: I like him as a flex LB someone who is a jack of all trades master of none. God, remember 2008 when all our starting LB's were that way?
Chris Kuper: I think Chris is willing to stay with a pay cut and perhaps be the swing guard.
Knowshon Moreno: a lot of chatter about how KM may be cut, but hes far more talented that Lance Ball, Jerimiah Johnson, Mario Fannin and any other scrap heap back sitting around

So the questions to all of you readers:

WHO ON THIS LIST GETS CUT? (if any)
WHO FILLS THE REMAINING TWO SLOTS? (names)
WHO IS MISSING ON THIS LIST? (specifically)

GO BRONCOS!

J-Man First Power Poll of 2013

2013-05-13T03:19:23Z

for those that know me i tried this Last Year as well

from 32-1

32 NYJ

31 JAX

30 TENN

29 OAK

28 CLE

27 PHILLY

26 ZONA

25 CAR

24 DET

23 CHI

22 SD

21 TB

20 PITT

19 BUFF

18 DAL

17 KC

16 MINN

15 WASH

14 MIA

13 STL

12 INDY

11 ATL

10 CINY

9 NYG

8 NO

7 GB

6 BALT

5 HOU

4 SF

3 NE

2 SEA

1 Den - Yes U Read Right Unless a HUGE Inj Happens Between now and Sept I Like Denver to go all the way but there are 2 factor in play here that worried me a little

1 Weather in Jan in Den i know any given sunday u can lose but had the weather been at least 30-40 Deg Warmer that day most likely we could had a special year but give credit to balt they basically won SB 47 in Den

and Num 2 Will Goodell Allow 2 West Coast Teams in a NY Super bowl SEA ' DEN

Denver to me With Wes Welker Should score 7 more points a game which should offset losing dumervil plus i think in early Aug freeney will cave signing a 1-year deal for the vet min

for those that know me i tried this Last Year as well

from 32-1

32 NYJ

31 JAX

30 TENN

29 OAK

28 CLE

27 PHILLY

26 ZONA

25 CAR

24 DET

23 CHI

22 SD

21 TB

20 PITT

19 BUFF

18 DAL

17 KC

16 MINN

15 WASH

14 MIA

13 STL

12 INDY

11 ATL

10 CINY

9 NYG

8 NO

7 GB

6 BALT

5 HOU

4 SF

3 NE

2 SEA

1 Den - Yes U Read Right Unless a HUGE Inj Happens Between now and Sept I Like Denver to go all the way but there are 2 factor in play here that worried me a little

and Num 2 Will Goodell Allow 2 West Coast Teams in a NY Super bowl SEA ' DEN

Denver to me With Wes Welker Should score 7 more points a game which should offset losing dumervil plus i think in early Aug freeney will cave signing a 1-year deal for the vet min

Who Is Better Than The Broncos?

2013-05-11T15:55:19Z

I am one of those people who tries to take a realistic view of what the Broncos will be like. Sometimes I am right, sometimes I am very wrong. As a case in point, at this time last year, I was extremely concerned about the viability of Peyton Manning as a QB coming off an injury this late in his career. I am happy to say that I have never been more wrong in my entire sports fan existence.

So what is my outlook for this year? Anything less than a Super Bowl appearance will be a major disappointment/underachievement. Yes, the Broncos are that good, and are, in my view, a better team today than they were at any point last year. The additions of Wes Welker and Montee Ball have huge implications for our already potent offense, and Shaun Phillips is certainly a serviceable replacement for the technologically challenged Dumervil and I have high hopes for both Sylvester Williams and Quanterus Smith on the defensive line.

And as a bonus, our primary competition in the AFC has not kept pace with our improvements. In New England, Tom Brady finds himself in a situation that shares similarities with Manning's at the beginning of last year. He has to get chemistry and timing with a whole new batch of WRs. Of all the receivers on the Pats roster, only four were on the team last year, and of those, only one caught a pass. This makes the loss of Welker to us loom all the bigger. Good thing for Brady he has the Twin TEs of Doom.... oh, wait..... Gronk is having another surgery and Hernandez is also dealing with injuries, so it is possible that neither will be back by the beginning of the season, and who knows how long it will take for them to get back to full strength once they are playing. The beginning of the year might be a bit rough for our friends in New England.

In Baltimore, well, what can I say about the Ravens? Yes, they are the defending champs, and will be until someone knocks them off their perch. But no matter how the Ravens fans shout about how they are reloading and getting younger, you just flat do not get better by replacing two no doubt HOFers that were still performing at a high level, not to mention their top receiving threat and several other defensive starters. Now, they play the games for a reason, and there is certainly the possibility that I am wrong and that Ravens will seamlessly transition to the new era, but looking at it from the outside, I just don't see how the Ravens are not a worse team this year than they were last year.

Houston strikes me as something of a paper tiger, Pittsburgh is getting old, and the Bengals are still the Bengals.That just leaves Indy as a possible contender. If Luck suffers a sophomore slump, I think we don't have much to worry about. If he doesn't, then to me, the Colts are the biggest threat to us. I still give us the edge in that match-up though, because Manning gets the edge as the crafty veteran over the young gun in Luck.

With all these things in mind, I have to think that anything less than an AFC championship is a failure. And if we do make it to the SB, I think we should win, regardless of who we play. But there are two teams that give me pause in the NFC. Green Bay is always dangerous with Aaron Rodgers. They can put up a lot of points in a hurry, and while their defense is suspect, Clay Matthews is capable of game-changing plays at any time. But the biggest worry is San Fransisco. While we have a clear advantage at QB, they have an excellent team from top-to-bottom. This is a team that made it to the NFC championship game with Alex Smith at QB, a guy who is basically a better version of Kyle Orton. They also have one of two guys in the league who are a match for Von Miller at rushing the QB in Aldon Smith. This is a team to be wary of. But they are beatable, as the Ravens showed, so if they can do it, why can't we?

I see no reason not to be thinking Super Bowl. This is the best team we have had since 1998. The stars are aligning and New York is the destination. Meadow Lands, February 2nd, 2014..... where will you be? I expect the Broncos to be taking the field.

Poll

What are your expectations for the Broncos this year?

Is a skill set more important than a position?

2013-05-11T08:50:39Z

Two recent articles from Bronco Mike on the front 7 alignments and hybrid players have got me wondering if we as fans, and I include myself in this, are too caught up in defining a player by a position notably on defense.

Two debates recently on this site regarding Von Miller and Kayvon Webster have focused on what position they are going to play. However in light of the flexibility of this defence noted in the articles I mentioned earlier surely the debates should be about how the team is going to use the player's skill sets not what position they are going to play?

If the debate shifts to this I believe it will give us a better understanding of what to expect from these players this season.

Calikula's Imperial Weekend Thread: Back in Black edition

2013-05-10T21:30:26Z

Back in action ladies and gents!! Well, maybe just gents, I havent seen any female commentators on the weekend thread so far. But that's ok!! We need to keep the Imperial Thread a hyper-testerone, red meat, hairy chest, all american type of place!!!

*Disclaimer: The Emperor says these things in jest. All people from both genders, all backgrounds, ethnicities, planets, etc are welcome here.

1. No cursing. If you must do a F*** or a sh** but lets keep it PG 13 folks.

2. Leave bad blood at the door. If you got beef with someone, don't continue it here.

4. Dont turn this place into a mess of a thread over politics, race, war religion, etc.

5. Respect each other.

Don't follow these rules, and my Imperial Homies Bronco Mike and Tim Lynch will handle ya'. Here's a pic:

As I was not at the royal palace last week, my good friend/Imperial Homie Bronco Mike filled in and did a wonderful job of keeping the throne warm!! Big shout out to you, Mike!!

So anyhow, on to the events of the past week:

The Bulls beat the Heat in game One, however, the Heat came back and put an end to the nonsense of the notion that the Bulls are "Heat Killers" and put a holy a** whoopin' on the Bulls. I dont think that the Bulls are going to knock the Heat out. Thoughts?

The Golden State Warriors have evened up the series at 1-1 with the Spurs; after narrowly losing to them in game one. Sounds eerily familiar? They did the exact same thing to the Nuggets. My thoughts are that the Warriors take em out, but the Spurs are a good team, so I think this one goes to game 7.

The Rockies are still atop of their division, and did they come out on top last night? I saw they were down by a run when I left the gym. And, does anyone here like baseball? Ive tried to get into it but I can't. I just can't.

And lastly, our good friend BroncosFanForLife is wrapping up his semester at college. Keep your head up, homie! Light at the end of the tunnel!

Imperial Quote of the Week:

Who doesnt love a good western? Val Kilmer killed it in this one:

And the Hot Chick of the Week:

Enjoy.

*Disclaimer: The Emperor says these things in jest. All people from both genders, all backgrounds, ethnicities, planets, etc are welcome here.

1. No cursing. If you must do a F*** or a sh** but lets keep it PG 13 folks.

2. Leave bad blood at the door. If you got beef with someone, don't continue it here.

4. Dont turn this place into a mess of a thread over politics, race, war religion, etc.

5. Respect each other.

Don't follow these rules, and my Imperial Homies Bronco Mike and Tim Lynch will handle ya'. Here's a pic:

As I was not at the royal palace last week, my good friend/Imperial Homie Bronco Mike filled in and did a wonderful job of keeping the throne warm!! Big shout out to you, Mike!!

So anyhow, on to the events of the past week:

And lastly, our good friend BroncosFanForLife is wrapping up his semester at college. Keep your head up, homie! Light at the end of the tunnel!

Imperial Quote of the Week:

Who doesnt love a good western? Val Kilmer killed it in this one:

And the Hot Chick of the Week:

Enjoy.

I have to get something off my chest

2013-05-10T15:55:38Z

In case you didn't know, I don't like typical Bronco fans for many reasons. One, they watch Broncos games like my niece watches Dora the Explorer. She has no clue about what is going on, but she loves every minute of it. If that offends you, then you may want to take a look in the mirror. There are a great core of knowledgeable fans here, and that's why I post here. I know this a fan site and fans like to state their opinion for good or bad. Hey, this is 'murica and I personally fought for the right so knock yourself out. But, I can be critical, make fun of and ridicule. And I expect you to do the same. Hopefully, we both learn something.

I want to point out some things because I keep seeing the same trends about the Broncos personnel here both pre and post draft.

The Broncos have a full-time scouting staff and a very good front office in case you didn't know

Just because you saw one nationally televised game of Alabama and saw Eddie Lacy go bat-guano wild against a good Notre Dame defense, it doesn't make you smarter than the Broncos. Oh and Le'veon Bell went before the Broncos pick....I know you're a fan and you want to celebrate your guys.

Rahim Moore and the safety position

In case you weren't paying attention, Moore had a pretty solid year last year and Adams was fine as well. No one said a thing until Moore picked the playoff game to have a bad game. Champ also had a bad game. I think we should remove him from HoF contention now. <-------sarcasm I want to point out, where was the pass rush on those plays that Moore and company got burnt? Where was Miller? Where was faxDum? Just going to point out that Dumervil wasn't even on that play that won the game for Baltimore. Ayers was in and made Flacco step up and throw the ball. Quintin Carter was projected as the starter at SS last year before he got hurt and should have the job over Adams this year. The Broncos like their safeties get used to it. No seriously, get used to it.

The MLB position

The first things I want to point out is that the Broncos are in nickel (2 linebackers) about 65% of the time, based on last year and that Keith Brooking was our starting MLB last year for most of the year. In case you don't know, Brooking is ancient. The Broncos don't think MLB is an important as the expects here think. They think that Nate Irving/Steven Johnson/Stewart Bradley can be just fine for 2 downs. If not, the Broncos can bring back Brooking. Let's not panic here people.

The Defensive Line

I keep seeing people want the Broncos to bring in Richard Seymour....Freeney....last year's sushi. The Broncos have had a plan all along about the defensive line. I know losing Dumervil wasn't exactly what they wanted, but they didn't want to play him $12 million either. The Broncos brought in Shaun Phillips to be the 3rd down RDE to replace Dumervil and that's fine. Ayers will get the start on running downs. The Broncos are set at DT with pot roast, big Vick, Williams (future stud) and Unrein. Also, they drafted a RDE of the future with Quan Smith. They know what they are doing. Please stop pining for free agents that haven't been signed by 31 other teams. Jeez

In closing

The Broncos front office knows a helluva lot more than us. They got rid of Tebow and brought in Peyton Manning. They signed Wes Welker. What are we all so worried about?

Flame on!

I want to point out some things because I keep seeing the same trends about the Broncos personnel here both pre and post draft.

The Broncos have a full-time scouting staff and a very good front office in case you didn't know

Rahim Moore and the safety position

The MLB position

The Defensive Line

In closing

The Broncos front office knows a helluva lot more than us. They got rid of Tebow and brought in Peyton Manning. They signed Wes Welker. What are we all so worried about?

Flame on!

Name these Broncos...

2013-05-09T20:51:21Z

Ok...this is really driving me nuts... the group picture of the Broncos attending the Rockies game the other night has some faces I just can't place. I'm sure the dedicate Broncomaniacs of MHR can lend a hand...

The numbers are tough to see...so here's a link to the extra large image: Broncos-At-Rockies

Here's who we've been able to figure out thus far:

1. Chris Kuper

2. Wesley Woodyard

3. Demaryius Thomas

4. Jacob Hester

6. Eric Decker

8. JD Walton

10. Orlando Franklin

13. Von Miller

14. Greg Orton

15. Louis Vasquez

17. Brock Osweiler

18. Manny Ramirez

23. Ronnie Hillman

24. Jerimiah Johnson

26. Wes Welker

27. Peyton Manning

Anyone insight as to those missing?

The numbers are tough to see...so here's a link to the extra large image: Broncos-At-Rockies

Here's who we've been able to figure out thus far:

1. Chris Kuper

2. Wesley Woodyard

3. Demaryius Thomas

4. Jacob Hester

6. Eric Decker

8. JD Walton

10. Orlando Franklin

13. Von Miller

14. Greg Orton

15. Louis Vasquez

17. Brock Osweiler

18. Manny Ramirez

23. Ronnie Hillman

24. Jerimiah Johnson

26. Wes Welker

27. Peyton Manning

Anyone insight as to those missing?

Changing Jersey Nameplates

2013-05-09T01:21:09Z

I, like many of you, have a collection of Broncos jerseys. I love my collection, except for when players get traded, cut, or sign with other teams and the jerseys become (9 times out of 10) unwearable. Such is the case with my latest failed jersey... #92 Elvis Dumervil. After the WTFax fiasco and he signed with Baltimore I really just wanted to burn it, but I resisted. Luckily our newest first round pick is also #92 and will be taking Dumervil's number.

My question to you Broncos Country, is how or where should I get the nameplate on my jersey changed from Dumervil to Williams? If any of you have any experience with this, maybe such as Marshall to Tebow, any help in the right direction would be appreciated. Hoping that an 80 dollar jersey doesn't get wasted. I'm also not sure if it matters the style of the jersey. It's an old Reebok screen printed Orange one, back when it was their alternate jersey, but there is an actual nameplate on it with screen printed letters.

Thank you, and GB².

Denver Broncos 2013 offseason recap.Part 2: Defense - The Front 7.

2013-05-08T11:31:11Z

This is the second part of my Broncos Offseason review. I divided in two chapter the defense review because it would have been a too long post.

In the next days I'll post the 3rd part regarding the defensive backfield and the 4th one on Special teams.

I like to think at the defense as a unit, so I don't like to divide this unit in two posts, but I should have cut some of my thoughts on Denver FO movements and roster shaping that are actually the reason why I wrote this post and I would like to read your opinion about.

Thanks for the patience, for the braves of you that will read all this poem and let's start the debate!

First: Go Broncos!!!

The Broncos entered Free Agency with again glaring needs at the defensive line due to, again, own free agents. Both Vickerson and Bannan, the “starting” DTs, were scheduled to be free agents leading Denver “lean” at the position. In addition to this the Broncos FO decided just before free agency that Dumervil contract for the 2013 season and beyond was not backed up by his production on the field and therefor decided to ask him a pay cut.

At the linebacker position DJ Williams was cut, after 9 years in orange and blue, because of off the field issues and Woodyard rising to stardom . Also the middle linebacker position saw Brooking leaving the Broncos complex because of free agency.

Sitting on top of this situation the Broncos FO started fast in Free Agency, first re-signing Vickerson, after his really good performance overall in 2012 and then landing Terrance Knighton that was almost a slam dunk given the position he plays (DT) and the coach under whom he became a dominant force: Jack Del Rio.

With these two signing, Denver found two good starting players in the interior of the line and IMO already back then improved the starting rotation.

It happened then that the draft roulette was really favorable to the Denver FO and DT Sylvester Williams was on the board when Denver clock started ticking.

Williams really improves the starting rotation and looks to be that complete young DT that Broncos fans were asking since years. He’s a penetrating DT, well built and with a lots of strength and quickness. Does not have elite lateral movement but was thought to be selected between the 10th and the 24th picks overall.

Hysteric picks let him fall to Denver and I believe the FO when says that they were astonished that Williams was there and that he was one of the 3-4 players they were hoping against odds to fall to them.

“Sly” Williams will play most probably all three downs on Denver rotation and could play both nose and under tackle. His abilities will allow the Broncos defensive line to have three players (Williams, Vickerson and Knighton) that could play both those positions and can create real pressure to the quarterback, being also really good against the run.

The depth under these three players is the same of the 2012 roster, being Mitch Unrein and Saelver Siliga the in-house developments plus Malik Jackson and Derek Wolf the swing defensive linemen on passing downs. To this crew Denver added CFA Romney Fuga from BYU that looks the part of a development nose tackle.

Looking at the talent and the potential of Denver crew at Defensive Tackle I’m really optimist and IMO the Broncos FO did a great job both in FA and in the Draft collecting two players that physically are quite similar, giving that Williams is more of a penetrator and QB rusher and Knighton, if in shape and motivated (but I doubt Del Rio will have any problem with him), more of a run destructor. Vickerson has experience and did a good job in 2012, Unrein was getting better during the whole past season. Siliga didn’t see the field much in 2012 and has to show that he belongs to this Broncos roster meanwhile Fuga could be a good practice squad member in case Siliga or another DT won’t make the roster.

Speaking about pass rushing ability I think the Broncos added some valuable weapons in the middle of the front four and they did the best they can to overcome the loss of Dumervil. I won’t enter in what happened because we, Broncos fan, all know the only thing that matters, Dumervil is not a Bronco anymore, and to me it hurts.

I think that the Broncos asked him a pay-cut for some good reasons, one of which could be still flying under the radar. I think the coaches asked Dumervil to do something more from the wide DE position than rushing the passer and he didn´t perform the way they wanted. He had a really good year in the pass rush but at this point they probably saw him becoming a bit of an edge rusher specialist only.

That was not worthy the salary from a FO point of view and decided that either he´d earn quite less or better to shape the team the exact way the coaches wanted it.

Dumervil skills were not matching perfectly with what planned but he is a too good football player to be left warming the bench.

So what happened is that Denver offered him even more money than what he was credited by them and he refused it. No offense to anybody.

Now the Broncos could go in the direction they wanted. IMO it meant more pass rushing from the inside with more balance on the outside, meaning that they will use a bigger DE as Ayers on the wide DE, until Phillips beat him out in practice.

Ayers will provide better balance in the front four because he’s bigger then Dumervil and plays better against the run. On obvious passing downs he could play, if he provides good pressure and some more sacks, or get out of the field to leave space to a sort of Dline that could perform a lot of variables, from a front 5 (2 standing OLB and 3 disruptive Dlinemen) to a 2 men rush and a lot of players covering the whole field.

With Doom, which played greatly for the Broncos BTW, at least 3 men were rushing the passer.

This approach could be taken because Denver collected, through the years, several versatile Dlinemen, two of them, Wolfe and Jackson could easily play both DT and DE, against the run and the pass rush.

The development of this two second year players will be important IMO, because they could really create problem to an offense even from a 2 men rush formation.

In addition to Ayers, Wolfe and Jackson, Denver will give a long look to 2011 7th rounder Jeremy Beal that last year spent the whole season in the I/R after being a practice squad in 2011.

Denver collected a great potential pick in the 5th round of the 2013 Draft in Quanterus Smith which was, IMO, one of the possible gems in the middle rounds and one of the few pure 4-3 edge pass rushers.Still his size and frame could help him develop into a complete player in a couple of years. Everybody mentioned his 3 sacks performance against Alabama as the prove he’s a good pass rusher but what I loved on his video is willingness to not give up on plays chasing the RB even into the opposite side of the field. He has some quickness and power that have to be developed.

Plus the Broncos went out and signed two CFAs in John Youboty and Gary Mason Jr that will provide competition in training camp and will probably fight with Ben Garland for a spot on the practice squad. The three of them have size and frame to be developed in a RDE and will be tested to see if they could even become swing Dlinemen a la Wolf or Jackson.

The acquisition of Smith was even a bigger bargain because the Broncos added Phillips minutes before or after the selection of the Western Kentucky prospect.

Phillips is another player that could have multiple impacts on the Broncos front 7. He could easily back up Von Miller at the SLB position (“frying” Nate Irving from that duty) or being used as Miller opposite pass rusher in obvious passing situation, or moved around with Miller to create havoc and pressuring the QB in a 2 Joker formation that can also count with a better inside push due to the DT acquisitions.

The need to find a reliable backup plan to Miller had to be one of the imperative goals of the Broncos offseason, since they pursued heavily CFA Lerentee McCray from Florida. This is a player that had a long list of injuries the latest of whom prevented him to work out at the combine and at Florida Pro Day. I don’t care about his draft status, the point is that Denver FO sees him as player that could be developed in a reliable solution in case Miller would get hurt and maybe also as a Phillips clone if injuries won’t slow him down anymore. I see him as a bubble player that will stick with the Broncos (53 men roster or practice squad) or not depending on if he’ll show that he could stay healthy.

The linebackers core is then composed by Woodyard that always played good football when called on the field but last year really took a huge step forward and he’s IMO, one of the most underrated player in the league in this moment. If he’d play again at the same level in 2013, he’ll earn a huge pay check in the 2014 offseason when he’ll be a FA, even with this year FA trend. He’ll go on playing WLB and MLB on nickel situations.

Trevathan is a really good football player and if he continues to improve as he did in 2012 he has the potential to create serious problem to the Broncos FO when deciding how much money is Woodyard worth for the team.

Del Rio likes to mix cards and have linebackers that could cover different roles as Woodyard, Trevathan does. So at the MLB position the only addition has been FA Stewart Bradley.

Fans are expecting Joe Mays to be cut or accept a huge pay cut for staying with the team but as special team player and Denver FO came out several time saying that, a part Bradley, Irving and Johnson will compete for the other starting linebacker position.

Brooking, that played the majority of the snap at MLB in 2012 is a FA and could still be added to the team, again late in training camp, if the coaches will indicate that none of the three players mentioned is playing well enough for becoming the starting MLB.

The MLB situation on the Broncos roster is giving me another opportunity to write a consideration of mine.

I had the feeling that the Broncos went out in the offseason and pick all the kind of players that were required for some “role need” that the team recognized.

Adding Bradley as competitor at the MLB with a 1 year contract worth a little more than 1 M is not really identifying the MLB position as a big position of need.

Even more because what Bradley brings to the table is his size (6’4’’).

Considering that the Broncos used nickel and dime formations a lot during the 2012 season, IMO this is the linebacker position (MLB) where the Broncos coaches put less value.

In the modern NFL there are really few MLB that can play at really high level against the run and cover in the passing game. The Broncos do not have one of them and decided that they want to use multiple different formations where MLB is not the biggest need.

In the Nickel formation Von Miller (SOLB) and Woodyard (WILB) are playing while in the dime Miller became a Dlineman, basically, and one or two linebackers were on the field and that included a mix between Woodyard, Trevathan, DJ Willimas (at the end of the year), Irving and Brooking.

Brooking, aka the classic MLB in 2012, was playing basically the first two downs when the opponent had chances to run the ball, only.

This was my own opinion and I think that the Broncos will go on with this solution again at the MLB position, exchanging formation on the field and using players that could cover more than one role at linebacker (as Woodyard, Trevathan, Irving and Johnson have the abilities to do) and also have the ability to rush the passer on blitzes (that Del Rio likes to use a lot).

Denver also signed a pair of interesting linebackers CFA in Uona Kaveinga from BYU and Doug Rippy from Colorado. I like a lot Kaveinga videos, he’s undersized but plays like a leader, I would love the Broncos to keep him (practice squad?) for a year and develop his athletic abilities, because I think he could become a really good linebacker and a really good defensive leader too. He has the ability to cover different LB positions but has to strongly improve his skills in coverage. Rippy is a tall and well-built linebacker that has some speed but also injuries concerns.

I like the front 7 the Broncos have; I like the versatility of the most of the players and the scheme mix that the Broncos are preparing for the next season. Is the first time in nine years that Denver has the same Defensive Coordinator two years in a row and Del Rio is a hell of a DC.

Thanks for reading.