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Strictly My Opinion

Never Tell Me the Odds

    "C3PO: Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to 1."
    "Han Solo: Never tell me the odds."


    This classic scene from the movie, The Empire Strikes Back is a wonderful example of the quandary faced by every NFL coach in just about every game.  In a game wherein there are around 3700 different factors to take into consideration, there are times when the odds/statistics advocate the coach doing one thing while the coach may be making a choice based on experience, game-moment observation, or just a plain, old, "gut" feeling.  The game of NFL football is like an intriguing blend of gladiatorial games played by championship poker players using the strategies of chess.

More after the jump

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8 comments  |  8 recs

What is Bill Williamson Talking About?

(AP Photo/Mark Duncan, File)

More photos » Mark Duncan - AP

(AP Photo/Mark Duncan, File)

Those who know me and this site know I usually don't single out members of the media.  They have a tough job and most of them work their a$$es off.  I respect them greatly and tell them that.  Then there are guys like Bill Williamson.  Williamson used to work at the Denver Post as the main Broncos Beat-Writer.  He took over at the Post when Adam Schefter left went off to the NFL Network.

Anyway, Williamson has since moved on to ESPN as their AFC West 'blogger'.  I usually disagree with somewhere in the neighborhood of 100% of anything he says.  Today is no exception.  In a post entitled AFC West Free Agency Review, Williamson broke down the Biggest News,  Biggest Surprise, Best Decision, Worst Decision and What's Needed for each team.  It's his opinion and he's entitled to it.  This is where it gets crazy.

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105 comments  |  9 recs |

Answers in Search of a Question: Fast Track to the Super Bowl (The Sequel)

New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick, left, and Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels meet before an NFL football game in Denver, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

More photos » Jack Dempsey - AP

5 months ago: New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick, left, and Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels meet before an NFL football game in Denver, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

"We learn more by looking for the answer to a question and not finding it than we do from learning the answer itself." -- Lloyd Alexander.

    In ASQ: The Fast Track to the Super Bowl, I addressed the changing trend of how quickly coaches are getting their teams to the Super Bowl.  This discussion was prompted by a comment in a thread about how coaches have to get their teams to the Super Bowl quickly, or risk not getting there at all.   I walked into that topic with absolutely no idea of what the history would tell me.  I chose, at that time, for simplicity's sake to restrict my research to the coaches who had won the Super Bowl.  In this article, I'm going to bring in the coaches who got to the Super Bowl, but failed to win it. 

    There have been 44 Super Bowls played; that's 88 Head Coaching slots.  Remarkably enough, only 47 coaches have filled these slots.  In the last article, we took  brief look at the 27 who have won the big dance.  This means that there were 20 coaches who got their team to the Super Bowl, but failed to win it.  More about all of this after the fold.

Poll
At the end of the day, would you prefer that your coach's SB record be:

  746 votes | Results

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82 comments  |  10 recs |

Answers in Search of a Question: Fast Track to the Super Bowl?

"We learn more by looking for the answer to a question and not finding it than we do from learning the answer itself." -- Lloyd Alexander.

    I love skimming through the comments section of the various fanposts at MHR.  The membership is filled with an incredibly knowledgeable group of people.  A community of fans who are passionate about their team, and who love to talk about the Broncos.  A group that freely and civilly shares thoughts, opinions, insights, questions, humor, angst and doubts.  All of that is good.  In fact, it is the wonderful dialogues here at MHR that prompt much of what I write.  So first off, a word of thanks to each and every one of you. 

    Okay, the touchy-feeling stuff is done, now onto some football.  Actually, this article found its origin in a small comment made by bfree2bronc.  He raised the issue of how fast coaches get to the Super Bowl.  Unfortunately, I did not write down the precise quote at the time I saw it, figuring that I would get back to it later that day, and well . . . we each know how life can suddenly reach out and bite us on the butt and direct our attention elsewhere.  So, bfree, and the rest of the writers in that part of the thread, if I misunderstood you, I do apologize.

    The gist of the subthread was the belief that McDaniels needs to win now, since coaches either make it to the Super Bowl quickly, or they don't make it at all.  I found that to be an intriguing topic and thought I'd take a quick look at it.  Quick . . . errr . . . right . . . sure . . . why are these things never simple?  LOL  Just kidding.  I narrowed my examination to those coaches who have won the big game.  My rationale was simple and two-fold: (1)It cut the number of coaches in half, and more importantly, (2)The goal is to win the Super Bowl, not just get there.  How many Silver Medalists from the Olympics can you name off the top of your head?  We want to see our coaches & players win the M--F--ing Super Bowl, not just go and watch the parade.

    When I started looking into how fast coaches had made it to the Super Bowl, I did not know what to expect.  What I found, I'll share after the fold.

Poll
Which type of Head Coach would you prefer:
One who aims to win the SB quickly (and maybe never return)
50 votes
One who aims for winning multiple SBs (even if it takes longer to get there)
537 votes

587 votes | Poll has closed

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109 comments  |  12 recs |

Facebook Connect comes to MileHighReport

We love rolling out features. Today we've made it easier for Facebook users to signup for SB Nation and to participate in our fan communities. For existing SB Nation members, Connect allows you to login with your Facebook account. Keeping track of different passwords is a hassle, yes? You're a discriminating sporting connoisseur, and your time is valuable.

Connect makes it easier for you share what you write on SB Nation with friends on Facebook, whether you're publishing a FanPost, a FanShot or a comment. You decide what you share. And your Facebook info stays over on Facebook.

Often your posts deserve to be seen by friends who aren't yet the sort to dive into sports blogs. Or by your grandmother, who just set up a Facebook profile, and added you. Are you going to ignore her forever? In any case, this step-by-step guide should get you Facebook Connected. It's easy!

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5 comments  |  1 recs |

Super Bowl, Cowherds, & a HOF Limerick

Stop the presses! This just in. Tim Lynch is back for the second straight week! Holy macaroni. I may just make this a weekly event.

How could I not follow up last weeks post with one today? The Super Bowl was a Super day and even bigger, to me, was the announcement of Floyd Little's selection into the Hall of Fame.

I'll cover that and more today, including a few things I have to say about Colin Cowte..err..Cowherd(forgot this is not a FanPost!). First I'd like to start off with a little lyrical masterpiece(not really):

It's beginning to look a lot like Draftivus
Ev'rywhere you goooooo;
Take a look at Jeremy's pen -- glistening once again
With profiles and resources aglow!
It's beginning to look a lot like Draftivus
Mocks in ev'ry blog.
But the prettiest sight to see -- is the star that will be
Part of your teams fielded cog

Dang, I started out so well only to have it end in such a horrible train wreck. I'd take it out, but that's just not my style. The Lynch gravy train never derails...

Poll
Without Peyton Manning, the Colts are a....
12+ win team
6 votes
10-11 win team
24 votes
8-9 win team
275 votes
6-7 win team
255 votes
Bottom feeder(aka Raider/Chief-type of team-and Chargers in a few years)
80 votes

640 votes | Poll has closed

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44 comments  |  8 recs |

Mile High Reactions to Super Bowl XLIV

Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints, winners of Super Bowl XLIV.  I have seen the spectrum so far, from people calling this a great Super Bowl, to others saying it was boring.  I've talked many times about not being a prisoner to the present.  To me, there is no need to immediately look to to try and place this Super Bowl into historical reference with the other 43 games, just because the 24 news cycle says we should.  I like to let it sink in for a bit.  I can say that it was an entertaining football game and at no point was I disappointed with the action on the field.

Now for some reactions to the game, with some Broncos-centric thoughts for good measure.

Milehighreport_small_medium  Play of the Game - There are plenty of options, from the On-Side Kick, to Peyton's interception.  To me, I always look for something a bit more subtle that changes the momentum in a game.  That play was the Pierre Garcon drop in the 2nd Quarter, with the Colts leading 10-3.  It was 3rd and 4 from the Indy 28 yard line.  The Colts hadn't been stopped yet.  Garcon ran a 10-yard crossing route and Manning hit him right in the hands with a pass that would have picked up the first down, and likely much more.  Instead, it forced the Colts to punt, and allowed the Saints defense to exhale just a bit.

It's always plays like that, moments in a game that few remember that actually change the momentum.  The Saints offense had finally loosened up a bit the possession before, getting a field goal.  The defense was still struggling a bit, trying to figure out how to slow Peyton Manning down.  The best way to do that, as we all know, is to keep the ball out of his hands.  That drop took the ball out of his hands, and gave it back to the Saints.  The Saints had the ball for 13:00 of the 2nd quarter, in large part because of that play.

Momentum is a funny thing.  It can swing back and forth like a pendulum until someone grabs a hold of it.  For me, the Saints grabbed the momentum from that point forward.  It showed on the scoreboard as well - The score before the drop was 10-3 Colts.  The Saints outscored the Colts after the drop 28-7.  You do the math.

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36 comments  |  6 recs |

We Interrupt Your Regularly Scheduled Program....

Usually at this time of day, right in this spot, you'll find Horse Tracks.  I decided to hijack this time-slot to go over some housekeeping with site, and make some announcements.  We get several new members everyday, and it is important that I have a post like this, from time to time, to welcome all of you and thank you for making MileHighReport part of your daily trip through the interwebs.

STAFF CHANGES

First, an announcement on some staff changes.  I am sad to report that Doug and Em have left the contributing staff here at MHR. 

Doug was the day-to-day man behind Horse Tracks, a favorite feature here at MHR and will be hard to replace.  I will do my best, but Doug was one of a kind.  I thank him for his 'service' to the site, and hope he still checks in on us from time to time.

Emmett was a regular contributor and commenter on the site as well.  His 'Tales' series was extremely popular, and brought a closer look at the men behind the facemasks - both Broncos players and prospects.  Again, this will be a hard act to follow and I thank Em for the time and contribution to help make MHR what it is today.

A Mile High Salute to both men, and I THANK YOU BOTH!

This could mean, for some of you, an opportunity.  I'm not necessarily going to fill these slots just to put people into them, but if you think you have the right stuff, please forward me an email at MileHighReport@GMail.com.

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118 comments  |  5 recs |


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