Warning!  This is going to be a long read!

A lot has changed between the end of the '08 season and today.  We knew we had 8 draft picks, and we knew our needs.  We also knew that Denver would avoid expensive FAs and go for a "youth core building" approach.

However, Denver has made quite a few FA moves, picking up several mid level talent players as stop gaps, and several of them are actualy improvements in the positions they are in.

We also let an offensive lineman go who provided depth at two OL positions in exchange for yet another pick.  If Denver trades down in the draft (as most MHR members seem to predict), we may end up with 10 or 11 picks.

Let's analyze the naked truth about where we stand as a team and figure out our future in '08.

I'm going to take a slightly different approach to the draft than the many draft experts at MHR.  I'm not a draft expert, but I know a little about football.  What I want to do with this article is to pretend I'm the head coach of Denver, while you the reader are the general manager.  I'm going to give you my assesment as a coach (being ignorant of what is available in the draft), and I want you to make the adjustments to get what you can based on my input.

Remember, this isn't the Mike Shanahan show.  You alone will make the final call on how we draft.  I'm just going to give you my input as a coach.  You are free to accept or reject my input in different areas because in our pretend world I only run the team, while you have complete control over the front office and personnel.

I'll give my current report on the state of the depth chart below the fold, and tell you what I advise.  Just click on the "read more" button below.  Ready?  Let's have some fun!

Poll

Denver should...

• 3. Pick with the 12th pick in the first round
• 1. Trade up from the 12th pick in the first round
• 2. Trade down from the 12th pick in the first round

  191 votes | Results

Continue reading this post »

Hi all!

I just wanted to take a chance to thank everyone for their patience during the recent troll attack.  I want apologize for the many comments made by a guest on the recent "MHR University" story about zone blocking which may have buried some questions and comments that deserved to get an audience.  Please know that the editors at MHR have discussed the matter, and we pledge to take a quicker and firmer response to posters who clog up the site with insults and personal remarks.  Guru has directed to the editors that this site is ok with debate and friendly trash talk, but not to the excess we saw over the past couple of days.  

I should have contacted Guru sooner, or temporarily banned the offender, or started deleting comments to keep the article's comment section on a more respectful level, but I failed to do so.  I felt that since the comments were mostly directed at me, I should have given the offending poster more slack since I had a conflict of interest.  By allowing things to go on as long as they did some of our members may have been offended by what they were reading on an otherwise family friendly site.  For that I apologize and pledge to do a better job of policing our site to ensure that a story or diary's comments thread doesn't get that offensive again.  

MHR is a safe place to come and to learn about the game of football and the Broncos, as well as sharing your thoughts and comments.  Being a Broncos fan isn't a requirment.  We welcome the fans of all teams, and even welcome disagreements.  Please know that each of us appreciates questions, and no question is too simple or "dumb".  We're here to help.  If someone attacks you (or, as in this case, one of the editors) on a personal level, it will not be tolerated.  All banning decisions made by an editor will be reviewed by Guru to make sure it was proper, and complaints or appeals can be directed to Guru.

Also, please don't take the recent attacks on myself or other MHR members personaly.  I know some folks wanted to go to the opposing site to speak up over there.  Guys, we want to have class and integrity in everything that we do.  If you visit another site do it in a friendly and respectful way, because it reflects on all of us.  The leader of the oakland site is a decent guy, and he was made aware of our recent situation with one of his members.  He and his site don't deserve the same treatment we got because of one mixed up individual.  The behavior of our recent problem poster should in no way reflect on Saint or his site.  Trash talk the raiders all you want, but please keep it in house.

And remember the language.  We are all a part of the MHR family, but some of our members are younger and we want to keep ourselves a "family friendly" site.  We take a lot of pride in our high school and younger members who come here and show a great amount of knowledge and team pride.

So for those of you who have any questions about the zone block scheme and the associative blocks used in the system, this post is the place to post your questions.  As always, any other football related questions are welcomed.  We are blessed to have experts on everything from legal issues to the salary cap, from Xs and Os to team history, from news research to players and the positions that they play.  If one of us doesn't know the answer, we will work to find it for you.

Thanks for coming to MHR.  We're glad you're here, and we'll do a better job of protecting our members from personal attacks in the future.  I also want to thank our members that were able to keep their class during the episode.  You guys rock!

Best,
Hoosierteacher

Marlon McCree has also been signed at SAF.  Hat Tip to nycbroncosfan for the scoop.  Link is below.

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/mar/08/broncos-beef-defense-sign-mccree-and-marquand/

I don't have much to add.  McCree has some fans at MHR, and this should make some folks happy.  I like the idea that Denver is going for some depth at the SAF position, and perhaps abandoning the CB/SAF hybrid approach.  

It looks like SAF and LB positions are settled.  Now the draft can focus on WR, DT, and OL depth.  I'm feeling good about where we are as a team right now!

This was an interesting story....you can check it out below.....here

It happened a long, long time ago, but obviously it still bothers Ron Wolf.

Back in Super Bowl XXXII, played in January 1998, the Green Bay Packers were the defending champions and looking for two in a row. The NFC had won 13 straight Super Bowls, and the Packers were a double-digit favorite over the Denver Broncos to make it 14.

But the blitzing Broncos defense rattled Brett Favre. The aging, but not washed-up John Elway, finally getting some help in the backfield with MVP Terrell Davis, kept it close for Denver. And finally, the Broncos scored with a minute left the game to take the lead -- a touchdown that was "conceded" by Packers coach Mike Holmgren.

The Packers couldn't answer. Denver won, 31-24. The Broncos won the next Super Bowl, too. And the Packers haven't been back since.

The loss still stung Wolf, a longtime Packers GM who engineered the franchise's renaissance in the 1990s. And never one to mince words, he blamed the loss on Holmgren.

Among other things, he called Holmgren "pig-headed," in terms of the decisions made throughout the game. Principally, Holmgren never adjusted against Denver's blitzing schemes and allowed the Broncos to disrupt the Packers' high-powered offense.

"Certain calls were to be made that weren't made," Wolf told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "Mike Holmgren refused those calls. There would have been an adjustment on the blocking scheme and it would have been over."

But now Wolf regrets those words, which were said during a trip to Green Bay in August.

"You guys (in the media) know me well enough, when you ask me a question, I'm going to answer the question," Wolf told the Green Bay Press-Gazette. "(But) I don't think anybody wants to look like a jerk, and I come out looking like a jerk here. We're talking about something that happened 11 years ago. I mean, who cares?"

Wolf said he spoke to Holmgren and apologized. Holmgren didn't seem to be all that bothered by it, but ...

"Because he hadn't seen the article," Wolf said." After he saw that article that could change, but I don't know that."

Wolf, now retired and residing in Florida, praised the work of current GM Ted Thompson, who has reconstituted the Packers to within an overtime loss of reaching the Super Bowl. And he cherishes his tenure in Green Bay with fondness.

"I consider myself green and gold," Wolf said. "It's a wonderful place. By far the best thing that ever happened to Ron Wolf is the opportunity to be affiliated and associated with the Green Bay Packers."

I kind of found it amusing reading this.  Even after 10 years this game still bothers the Packers.  I guess the world couldn't handle the Broncos winning the Super Bowl even once.

Our member from Denmark, Claaaas, has won the "Offseason Naming Contest"!

We are asking the MHR family to use the winning term, "Reloading Season" when writing about the season formerly know as "offseason".

Please join us in thanking our friend from across the ocean for his winning entry.  Don't feel down if you didn't win this time around.  I'll be offering some contests opportunities on the new Football University series that premiers tomorow....

day one....

of the reloading season.

Congratulations again to Claaaas!  Please move to the United States soon so we can save on prize shipping costs!  : )

Stay tuned to MHR at half time to see the announcement of the winner of the "offseason naming contest".

There is no such thing as an offseason for us hardcore fans, and we will unveil the name of the MHR member who has given us a name for the offseason we can use with pride.  The decision was made by our editor (Guru) and our two regular front page contributers (Styg50 and hoosierteacher).

I'm told this was last year's prize:

This year is a little bit more in budget (vacation with bunnies stretched the budget a bit last time around).  Prizes include a classic Broncos item from the days of the big D with the snorting horse (given to me be a former DE with LSU), and an item from the magical place known as "the desk top of Styg50".

A hearty thank you to all participants.  We had a ton of great names to choose from.  Stick around, as more contests will be on the way!

Comes now before the assembled body of scholars of Mile High Report greetings, presents, and communication from the right equitable Dean of Football University's College of Coaching Theory and Practice - Hoosierteacher.

Football University is, as you know, a secret and fraternal university open only to the most elite minds in the football world.  As of the present, the only minds found to be worthy of entrance have been the entire membership of Mile High Report.  

While the knowledge of members of that site vary from coaches (hoosierteacher), lawyers (Trinidad Jack), engineers (Styg50), and even sports broadcasters (SportsGuru's Mile High Report Radio), the site has fans who know more than "media experts" about every facet of the game, ranging from salary caps, drafts, football history, etc.  Not one MHR member has been found to be anything less than worthy of entrance to Football University.  Every member has demonstrated either knowledge, a desire for knowledge, an affinity for reasoned debate, or a joy of football fellowship that transcends the culture and semantics of all other sports sites.

Therefore, as a member of MHR with a current registration in hand, you are invited to take course with our Dean of Coaching Theory and Practice - Hoosierteacher.  First, an introduction to the faculty that can be made public at this time to all members of MHR:

President of the University

TheSportsGuru

Editor of MileHighReport.com; President of Football University; holds the John Elway Chair of Football Journalism and Broadcasting, Director of the MHR Fellowship Program; Host - MHR Radio.

Dean of The College of Coaching Theory and Practice

Hoosierteacher

Front Page Contributor - MHR; Dean and Professor (The Steve Atwater Chair of Defense Studies), Chairman of Committee to Develop MHR Intern Program '09.  '08 offseason lecturer for Football University.

Dean of The College of Football Analysis

Styg50

Front Page Contributor - MHR; Dean and Professor (The Shannon Sharpe Chair of Football Wit and Wisdom), Chairman of the No Points Left Behind Post Graduate Studies curriculum.  Frequent guest lecturer for the '08 course series.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

What does all of this mean?  It means that you dear reader are automaticaly enrolled in a free course of study presented at MHR.  The series will focus on a deeper appreciation for football systems, positions, plays, formations, playcalling, and anything else found under the heading of game time strategy.  History and development of those concepts will be explored, as will potential future trends.

The point is not only to share this information with members, and not only to have a series for your enjoyment during the offseason, but to have a place where you can come to ask questions about facets of the game you want to learn more about.

No such thing as a dumb question!

All questions are encouraged.  Whether a scholar wants to know something as simple as "How many points for a field goal?", or someone wants to know the difference in roles for a FB under the 1951 Single Wing Offense versus the role of the defunct Flanker position, it's all fair game!

What's in store for this offseason

The heart of the series is football education with an emphasis on the Xs and Os of the on field game.  However, there will be some enjoyable distractions.  Contests, mock subjects, and running jokes will lighten the atmosphere amongst articles of deep football thinking.

If you have an idea for subject matter, you can always mention it in the comments section.  Some of the things that will be covered include:

1. Will the FB position die out in a few decades?
2. Will the TE position become more prominant in the game of football?
3. What are the mechanics of the "Bootleg Plays" as employed by the Broncos?
4. What defensive system will Denver run in '08?
5. Would Batman be the answer at OLB, and is there any position on the team that could be played by Chris Hanson (of Dateline NBC's "To Catch a Predator")?
6. What is the "Zone Block" system?  How do different teams run it, and what are the strengths and weaknesses of the scheme?
7. What is the "staggered retirement" approach to building a team?
8. What is the theory of "Salary Cap Hell", and how does it destroy a team for years?  How is it cured?
9. What is the next major revolution in football strategy in terms of formation/system approach?
10. A pre-season special - A look at the '08 schedule and the systems run by the Denver opponents.
11. Are the raiders "evil" because they choose to be evil, or because in a non-Euclidean universe they are destined to be evil because the Broncos are the force of "good" and must be opposed to prevent a vacuum matter collapse event? (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_vacuum#Vacuum_metastability_event)

This isn't a full list, and it is subject to change.  Most likely, as the series goes on the great MHR family will have requests or comments that grow into articles.  My hope is that I can get the ball rolling, but that you will determine the direction of articles by your participation.

So don't despair after the big SB game.  Good times are on the way.  I'll have the University series up and running, Styg has the in depth player/position series going, and many members are writing excellent diaries and contributing great comments.  And Guru...

Guru has something on the way so profound and wonderful that we're not even allowed to discuss it.  Stay tuned.

A very special thank you to Dr. Styg50 from the College of Football Analysis for sending one of his grad students over to show me how to post pictures.  I gave the odd little fellow kippers and a cookie as instructed, but have not yet been able to coax it out from under my staircase.  Very odd indeed.  It appears somewhat human.  My five year old says I shouldn't turn on the lights, feed it further, or get it wet.  I don't think this is a Gremlin though.  At any rate the cat is scared as heck, and anyone able to get in touch with Dr. Styg would be greatly appreciated.

Oh, by the way, these wonderful ladies have signed up for the class and are looking for a study group.  I dropped your names and thought maybe you could help them out.  Take care!

What is the most important trait in a football player?  Reasonable minds disagree.  It depends on the position being played, the system being used, and several other factors.  I'm going to write about one trait that applies across the board in all sports, and it is a trait that won't take away from other abilities.  I'll discuss the advantages in youth sports, as well as the NFL.  Yes, you read the title.  I'm talking about endurance.

If you are more interested in the NFL level, skip ahead a few paragraphs.

Part One - Youth Sports

Folks who have kids getting into sports often ask me what their child should be doing to get prepared for a season in a particular sport, and my first answer is always, "Ask the coach".  The reason is that many parents want to help their kids improve, but the way they go about it sometimes conflicts with the coach's desires.

1. Depending on the age, coaches may want the kids focused on having a good time and not being worn down by well intentioned parents putting too much emphasis on a sport.  For instance, whenever I'm around small children in a city league type environment, I tell parents to let the child focus on the sport during practice, and to leave the sport alone in the child's time away from the league.
2. At older ages "parental" training can often ruin a good team training program.  For example, if I am coaching a team where I use running to build an aspect of an athlete's abilities, I want that athlete running every other day, NOT daily.  It's not uncommon to see a kid wearing down in practice, only for me to find that he or she is getting "extra" help at home that doesn't allow my athlete to recover and rebuild between running days.

In short, don't do any home training without your child's coach's input.  And don't forget that you may ruin the sport for your kid if he/she is training during free time they would rather be doing something else.  Let traing happen at practice, and let your child excercise during the offseason.

After that, my second piece of advice is, "You can never go wrong with endurance training in the offseason."  Whether the kid is a big offensive center or a wiry cornerback, or if she is a gymnast or a soccer player, and (believe it or not) whether a kid takes part in debate or chess, endurance is a big helper across the board.

That said, during the offseason of a sport consider endurance running.  A good program includes building the ability to jog for distance over time 3 or 4 days a week, with a break in between each day.  The benefits are numerous.  Some of the best include:

1. Cardiovascualar health (a better heart and better lungs, an increased ability for the body to use oxygen efficiently, an ability to better respond to other forms of excercise, creates a blood chemistry metabolism more responsive to fighting illness and feeding muscles during other excersices, lessens risk of heart disease and obesity, allows the athlete to be fresh while his opponents wear down, allows the athlete to "jump start" faster than his opponent).
2. On the field (let's use football), the other team feels like they are in the fourth quarter, but your crew feels like they just took the field.  Less gasping for air, more focus (increased oxygenated blood to the brain), and less need for your team to rotate.  Lessened threat of a "no huddle" offense ripping up your defense.
3. The ability to use oyxgen better in the athlete's metabolism makes football equipment less of a factor in impairing a player's ability to run faster and longer.  His tackling (and other skills) don't decline as much the longer he stays on the field.
4. Unlike some other traits, endurance can be built for ANY player, regardless or position, body type, or former training.  ANY player in any sport can learn endurance.  (Some people don't have the build to become big or strong, some people are just not fast [you can't coach speed], some people will just never become agile, and you can build knowledge but not intelligence).
5. That richer oxygenated blood to the brain not only helps with focus and concentration (chess, debate anyone?), but also leads to less injuries because the athlete is focusing on plaing safe the way he/she has been taught (like "keep your head UP when tackling").

You get the point.  

I'm a speed guy myself when building a defense (if the players are available).  But if I was or wasn't (and some years I didn't have the speed to fit a system and had to resort to what fit my guys) I ALWAYS build endurance.

My training put most of the time on the basics (stance, tackling, etc).  A little less time was placed on more advanced concepts (responsibilites in different plays).  It depended on how bright the group was.  But over half of our physical training was geared towards endurance no matter what.  As a result, people thought we had the best second half team in the area.  It wasn't that we got better as the game went on, it was that everyone started sucking air and our kids felt rested the entire game.  

Working in the weight room needs to be a year around pursuit, because it won't improve a kid much in a few short weeks.  Endurance can be built fairly quickly.  In fact, I had just about every kid (even the "big uglies" on the lines) jogging for an hour without walking by the end of each season, and did it without killing anybody.  The program was so effective I was asked to use it for the offense (I was a defensive coordinator), and was asked to use it for many of the school's other athletic teams.  I became a distance track coach in large part because the training I used for the football team was noticed by the head track coach.  

I got most of the program from a book a doctor recommended to me, and I highly advise anyone who wants to build a good program for themselves or for a team to check it out:

http://www.amazon.com/Beginning-Runners-Handbook-13-Week-Walk-Run/dp/1553650875/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&a mp;s=books&qid=1201466323&sr=8-1

~~~~~~~~~~

Part Two - Endurance in the NFL

Just how critical is endurance in the NFL?  Consider the urgency of endurance for a team like Denver.  

If we are thin at any position (like DT), it is critical that we hold down rotation rates for players by having players with the endurance to stay on the field longer.  A weakness of the former "Run Contain" system was the need not only for big DTs, but several of them to rotate through.  The system is a good one, but was hard on a team with few big d-tackles to hold the line without back-up DTs to rotate in.

Players, regardless of size and responsibility, can and do build endurance in the NFL.  The best players come into camp during the summer having kept up that training.  Other lesser players start the season a little slower and build up their play as the season goes on.  Players known for a good work ethic (Rod Smith, John Lynch, Champ Bailey) are players who come into camp each year looking strong.  One player known for keeping up in the offseason was Shannon Sharpe.

Let me share a couple of examples of the urgency of endurance over most other training regimens.

1. US Special Operations forces place more emphasis on distance running and hiking than any other excercise.  When I was a medic back in the late 1980s I was not in Special Forces, but I did serve in a medical support capacity for Special Forces during much of my time at Ft. Bragg and Camp MacKall.  I provided much of the medical coverage for the Qualification Course and SERE, as well as some other phases of training.  One of the first things I noticed was there were no Schwazenagers or Stalones, but instead a bunch of lean guys built like runners.  Delta and British SAS qualifications place mental and physical endurance at the center of initial qualifications, requiring candidates to keep moving for superhuman distances with seemingly no end in sight.
2. I don't have the textbook anymore, but there was a battle I used in one of my lectures each year for a history class I taught (I can't recall the minor battle as it was a small part of a larger lecture).  The battle was a skirmish between two sides that took place on several  boarded sailing ships.  One side used large swords to hack their way through lighter armed naval infantry.  But as the battle wore on through the day the tide turned, and the worn down troops with the heavier swords were overwhelmed by men with lighter swords who had not tired from slashing away with a two handed grip.  Good fourth quarter victory huh?

My focus has always been defense, So I'm going to focus there.

Why do defenses wear down faster than an offense?  Good question (heck, I asked it)!

The first reason is that offenses have the advantage of knowing what is coming and get to commit to a direction of movement first.  In contrast, a defense not only doesn't know the snap count (so they have a slight disadvantage having to focus on the ball), but doesn't know in advance how the play is supposed to unfold.  The defensive player is thus typicaly in a stance whilst physicaly tense for the entire count, and then has to commit to a direction of play often having to change direction as they see their responsibilities change as the play moves on.

Second, imagine being a heavy lineman and not knowing whether you will have to penetrate for a pass rush or having to tackle if the play turns into a run.  Either way, you very well might be about to get pounded by an offensive line knocking you on your butt on a run play.  The offensive line doesn't have the same guess work.  They already know if they will be doing the hitting or the pass blocking.

The QB and receivers even know where the ball is supposed to go.  The CBs have to keep with their guys and react (which takes more energy than running a route from memory like a receiver does).

Endurance is the equalizer for a defense.  If you have depth you can rotate in guys, but not if the other team goes no huddle.  Endurance allows replacement players to stay on the bench longer, and allows starters to recover and get back in the game more quickly.

Sometimes folks wonder about a player's ability if he isn't "big enough".  Keep in mind that a more slender player probably has two traits going for him.  One, slender guys are usually faster.  Two, they usually last longer (endurance).  As a drive wears on, it is the slender guys who start to dominate.  

In a "bend don't break" philosophy used in some systems (like the en vogue "cover two"), the smaller CBs, LBs, and D-linemen capitalize on mistakes by the defense more and more as drives wear on.  Turnovers and penalties plauge the offense because they have more plays in which to make a mistake.  The lighter defense is less winded, and more quick to pounce on a fumble or jump in for an INT.

Irregardless of the philosophy, system, side of the ball, and player types a team uses, it is clear that endurance is a crucial part of being ready for game day.  Beyond that, folks can differ on speed, strength, size, etc.  A good strength and conditioning coach knows this, and makes sure his players know it too.

~~~~~~~

Any questions on this story or anything else about football?  There are many experts here at MHR ready to chime in with answers.  Simply visit the comments section below and chime in.  No question is to simple, and no opinion ignorant (unless it is hateful).  

I focus on systems, schemes, plays and player responsibilities (Xs and Os).  Other folks have a knowledge of those areas too, but we also have members with vastly more knowledge than I about about issues like the draft, team history, cap issues, etc as well.

All of us at MHR look forward to hearing from you!  (Membership is free and privacy is strictly enforced).

With the offense out of the way, it is now time to take a look at the defense.  Remember, we aren't looking at which players we want, but the type of player we might want.  Not knowing what kind of scheme we will run on defense makes this a difficult proposition.  But I have been studying defensive coordiantor Slowik, and I think his system is starting to fall together in my mind.

This is what I think we need in terms of player types, and it is a subjective call.  There is plenty of room for disagreement.  I will again list player types we need even if the position doesn't need to be filled.  The article is a combination what we might seek in the offseason, as well as simply what type of player we should expect to play in Slowik's scheme.

DT

Slowik has a lot of wiggle room to go in whatever direction he wants to go.  We have Thomas ready to go, and McKinley.  The big question is, "are they true starters, or good rotational guys?"

I think Thomas has the potential to develop into a solid DT, and I think McKinley helps in rotation.

Given the depth and speed at DE, I imagine Slowik will want big DT types to tie up the OL so that the DEs can do their thing.  I also think Slowik will go after large DT types because of the run defense issues Denver had in '07.

It is pretty much a lock that Denver picks up at least one, and perhaps two DTs this offseason.

DE

Denver looks set at DE for next year.  Doom is a big name in Denver already, and 1st round pick Jarvis Moss will return in '08 after being out this year with an injury.  Crowder is developing steadily, Engelberger looks ok (more so in run support), and fans have high hopes for Mallard.  There is youth, depth, and speed at this position, and it is reasonable to assume that the pass rush will continue to be the focus of the DEs.

One might think that Denver should shift gears and bring in DEs better suited to stopping the run, but with so much talent already in place a turnover of personnel would be hard to imagine.  Look for speed and the ability to shake pass blocks as the core skills Denver prefers for this position.

MLB

Denver has flexibility for MLB.  Traditionaly, Denver likes to put three speed demons at the LB positions.  But with limited talent and depth across the board, Denver is freed up to go in either direction (speed or size).

The chief concern is whether Williams stays at MLB or moves to OLB.  Either move is a no-lose proposition.  I suggest that Williams will stay at MLB for several reasons.

1. By being the second most proficient tackler in the NFL (first in the AFC), you've got to wonder why Denver would mess with something that isn't broken.
2. By leaving Williams at MLB, Denver (in the offseason) can focus on players that have a history at OLB, instead of dividing their research and targets between MLB and OLB.
3. Moving Williams will mean he has been moved around almost every year he has played for Denver (he has played every LB position already).  He should get the chance to focus on one position instead of playing musical chairs.
4. Denver has been grooming Williams to be the MLB replacement for Wilson since he (Williams) came to Denver.  It is unlikely that there would be a change in plans.

There are solid reasons to move Williams too.

1. With his speed, Williams is a great blitz threat at the WLB position.
2. With his great speed, Williams is the best bet to "man on" with most TEs in the league.

If Williams were to move I would advocate the same speed oriented LBs Denver has always depended on.  Denver likes fast MLBs because they can cover the field side to side, have a dual threat (pass coverage in a middle zone), and add a dimension in blitz packages (Slowik looks to be an agressive blitzing coordinator).

Denver may well pick up one or two LBs, but I don't see Williams being replaced at MLB.

OLB

Let's take a quick look at what we have in depth.

• Gold - Once a speed demon and a solid tackler, he underachieved this year.  Badly.
• Webster - Went from terrible to below average.
• Winborn - Showed enough skill to get a two year extension, and looked good on special teams.  Does Denver think he can start in '08, or was he just a temporary bandaid at the end of the season?
• Holdman - Considered competitive to start in '07, he was out for the season on IR.  He will be 32 in '08.
• Beck - a very young, but unknown quality.
• Green - a 28 year old back-up.  Despite the poor play of players in front of him, the coaching staff must have thought he wasn't immpressive enough to move into a starting role.

What kind of players do we need at OLB?  Let's take a quick look at the differences between the strong side LB and the weak side LB.

The WLB has two main responsibilities in most defensive schemes.  He blitzes the blind side of right handed QBs, and covers a zone on the weak side to prevent runs to that side of the field.  If the FB is a threat, he may cover him in man.

The SLB might cover the TE (a role sometimes filled by the strong safety).  He also has responsibilty for wide runs towards the sideline, HB screens, and inside runs towards the srong side.  Runs up the middle are the most common runs, and runs to the strong side are second.  He is involved in more plays than the WLB.

For either position I see Denver again going with speed.  The AFC west features teams that thrive on elite TEs, and defenses in the AFC West should use fast SLBs for coverage.  Denver may very well go after speed for both OLB spots to allow themselves the flexibility to put a player on either side, as opposed to taking risks on two types of players that can't fill the other position if one of the players is a bust.

Going for a big, run stopping OLB would diverge from traditional Denver philosphy, and wouldn't fit Slowik's probable schemes.

Denver will likely pick up one or two OLBs in the offseason.

CB

Denver has two of the best in place (Bailey / Bly), and two decent nickle backs (Paymah / Foxworth).  There may be a need for a development player for down the road, but I doubt Denver goes this route.  However, Denver may go this route if either Paymah or Foxworth leaves due to being FAs.  They both have trade value as well.

Clearly, being a man instead of zone coverage team, Denver would want fast, coverage kind of guys instead of hard hitting, zone kind of guys.

SAF

Hamza has shown he can play the position well, and with his youth he has time to develop nicely.  

Lynch is the big question mark (see the excellent four part series by MHR contributer Styg50).  He may retire, but seems to lean towards returning.  He is excellent in run defense, a heavy hitter, and has elite instincts to read plays.  He also has two neck injuries in recent history, and gets slower every year.

Ferguson is likely done after being being placed on IR on not playing very well.

Cargile and Rogers are young and unknown qualities.

Denver needs a coverage SAF for this position.  A speed SAF gives the team the option of playing a SS in either pass or rush, something Lynch is moving further from with age.  Two coverage SAFs gives the CBs the ability to make INTs, someting they can't go for if they don't have speedy SAFs behind them.

Denver may very well go for a SAF this offseason.  Phillips is the elite SAF on the draft boards, and many draft predictions have Phillips going to Denver (see Guru's excellent diary updates on the draft database).  Many great minds at MHR advocate SAF, DT, LB, OL, or WR.  I estimate about half of the opinions lean towards Phillips, and he fits the SAF type Denver wants.

He would compete with Hamza for the FS position, with the "lesser" SAF being a perfect fit for SS.

Conclusion

MHR newcomer Calvin (the prodigy at MHR) has a terrific diary up on the need to bolster our offense before we fix the defense.  He favors building the OL, where other members (like Villyn) prefer building at the WR spot.

Amongst members wanting a defense first approach for this year, divisions fall along members wanting SAF, while most others want DT followed by OLB.

We all have opinions, and no, they don't stink.  Everyone has made solid points for their cases.  I feel we have the following needs on defense:

SAF / DT (tied for critical need)
LB (need)
a second DT (need)
a second LB (need)

That's five needs on defense.  Let's review the list I suggested for offense.

OL (Need)
OL (Strong want)
WR (want)
OL (extra) [added since last article]
TE (extra)
HB (extra)

And now let's combine them (in my opinion).  Bear in mind that this is with all things being equal.  There are considerations (who is available in the draft, trades, etc) that I'm not taking into account.

DT or SAF (critical need)
DT or SAF, the other one (critical need)
LB (need)
OL (need)
a second DT (need)
a second LB (need)
OL (Strong want)
WR (want)
OL (extra) [added since last article]
TE (extra)
HB (extra)

Ok gang, jump in with your thoughts, differences, questions, compliments, or jeers!  Enjoy the playoffs on Sunday, and stay warm!  Have a terrific weekend!!!    

There are going to be some great articles about the draft on MHR.  I enjoy contributing articles on football from a coach's view, but I hold that the real draft experts are the members of MHR who have a passion for college ball or the draft itself.  When it comes to the draft season, I'm just an onlooker.

In this post I want to do something a little different than what the real experts are doing.  While the MHR professionals are doing research and putting together outstanding work on "who" we are looking at for the draft, I'm going to look at the player types  that I think we should be targeting.  I'll give my impression of what type of player we should go after for every position (whether we have a need or not) and what direction I think Denver will ultimately go in.

QB

Denver has no need for a QB in the draft.  Denver has an up and coming superstar with Cutler, and a solid #2 in Ramsey.

But if Denver went after a #3 what kind of QB would they want?  Believe it or not, they would go after a pocket, accuracy oriented guy even though this doesn't match the Denver scheme.  Why?  Because if (God forbid) injuries led to the need for a third string QB, the goal would be to have someone who can hand off the ball and make rare, high percentage short passes to buy time for an injured QB to return.

HB

Here again, Denver is set.  But there are considerations for the draft.

1. Denver is known for trading away good RBs and getting others late in the draft.
2. Of all the HBs Denver has, the most endangered RB is Henry, due to injury.

Given these variables, if Denver drafts a HB he should be a power, one-cut back.  The reason is that Young is a speed back, and a good one, but he is better used when he gets less carries.  The same with Hall (though he is more suited for the return game).  The other reason is the requirement in Denver's scheme for a back who can:

• Run up the middle
• Wear down the defense
• Be a change-up RB to compliment the speed backs

Thus, a speed back is NOT what Denver wants in a draft.

FB

Denver will not go after a FB in this draft, nor any future draft.  First, Denver (like most teams) is phasing out the position in favor of the TE position.  Second, Denver likes to fill the roster with HBs, and use the best blocker of the bunch as a FB.

Denver's FB is used on screens as a receiver, and as further bait to help sell the defense to the wrong side of the field when the QB bootlegs the other direction.  Sapp will possibly be resigned to this position.  Denver has not used a true FB in the Shanahan era.

OL

No question here.  Any draft for a Denver o-lineman will require an athletic guy with quick footwork.  Even though several teams are moving to the zone block scheme, Denver can probably get their OL from the mid-rounds because of limited competition.

The only discussion is how many guys we should get this year.  I say a bare minimum of one, two would be best, and three would be icing on the cake if we meet our defensive needs.

Lepsis retired.  It looks like Nalen and Hamilton will return (though this is not yet certain).  Even if they do, there is a heightened chance of injury to either or both players.  Denver claims that Harris is a future star at OT, and he will be bumping Pears to the opposite side.  Hamilton, Kuper, Holland and Myers will round out the OL, while Nalen will take his C position back.

Considering that it takes at least two years (in most cases) to develop into a starter, it seems reasonable to assume that we may need up to three players (in terms of both starting and depth) for '09 and '10.  We should get three players in the next three years, with at least a bare minimum of one right now.  Two would be ideal, and we could get the third in the '09 draft.  The longer we put this work off, the more it will bite us in a critical draft later on (and the less time to develop the players as well).

TE

We have an excellent group at TE.  We have the League's best blocking TE in Graham (who has underrated hands in my opinion), and an awesome up and coming receiving TE in Scheffler.  In the second tier we have Mustard (a blocking TE who proved he can catch toward the end of the season), and Jackson (who can catch, but isn't well rounded enough to start).  We don't really need a TE at this point.  But if we take one, what type do we want?

I advocate the less sexy option; a blocking TE.  He still needs good hands to be a TE and not an o-lineman, but his specialty should be blocking.  Why?

1. Graham isn't in enough trouble with his arrest to be a suspension threat in the NFL yet.  But his actions may indicate the potential to be endangered down the road if he doesn't straighten up.  If he screws up, we'll want a blocking TE to replace him.
2. If the new guy blocked well enough, he could be a threat on two-TE sets with Graham versus 3-4 defense formations.  In three-TE sets we could drop off our FB and get a heck of a run formation for short yardage (as well as disguised pass threats).

WR

Amirebram and I have been going back and forth on the type of WR needed in this draft.  He makes a very sound argument for his position, and you owe it to yourself to read his work (as well as the comments section) so that you understand his position.

http://www.milehighreport.com/story/2008/1/11/155320/767

Normaly in a post I would just put down my own opinion and accept other views in the comments section.  But Amir's appeal for a sound WR in the mid to high draft is worth tagging into this article because his view, while different from mine, is just as meritorious.  I'll ask forgiveness in advance if I in any way misrepresent his views.

In a nutshell, I want speed.  Amir favors a good WR.  Both of us have good points, and I would go so far as to say that both of us are right.  It is a matter of what your philosophy is.  Look at me as a coach that wants something for the scheme, and Amir as a manager (or president of football operations) that has several variables to wrestle with in addition to what a coach wants.

Amir's position is based on four points.  All of them are correct.

• Speed is no good without good hands.
• In our potential draft positions, we may not have fast WRs with good hands.
• Speed receivers don't usually truly outrun their coverages.
• For our scheme, WRs must be able to run block.

I agree with all of these points.  So where's the disagreement?

Consider this.  I hold that the biggest threat to a defense in the passing game is a three pronged attack.  A speed receiver (like Walker) streaks up the field and forces his CB to go after him (and pulls the SS into deep coverage on the strong side).  A YAC receiver (like Marshall) is a perfect midfield threat on the weak side, forcing a CB to cover him.  A third type of receiver, a "possession" receiver (like Stokely) takes the midfield to the strong side.  Now what does the FS do?  He can't cover both Marshall and Stokely.

Walker is iffy for next year.  If he returns I think he will be an awesome WR, and a deep threat.  If he doesn't we face some problems.

1. Stokely is not an every down receiver (according to Shanahan in his recent conference).  He needs rest in between plays.
2. If Walker doesn't return, Marshall will move to #1 (meaning his CB coverage will be more difficult to overcome).  
3. Martinez is a fast guy, but nowhere near ready to play at number #2 (he is better suited to returns).  

This leaves a major void in our passing game.  Our best bet is a speed receiver to stretch the defense out north/south to clear the field for the other players.

My concern with a "best available receiver" option in the draft is this:

1. Without the deep threat each WR gets man coverage and the safeties can play their own side of the field and not have to commit too early to which receiver they need to go after (as they would if a deep threat was racing down the line),
2. In a typical zone defense (like a Tampa-2) the midfield will be covered, and that's where all of our threats will be.  Against a zone coverage, three types of receivers cause match-up troubles for the defense.

Now I agree with Amir that a WR MUST have good hands, and we can't settle for less.  I also agree that he MUST be able to run block, and we can't settle for less.  My position is that if Walker doesn't return, and if we can't get a speed receiver with good hands and blocking attributes, then we should skip the draft for WR and fill the position through trade or FA.

I realize that there are a heck of a lot of terrific receivers in this draft, but my position is that we have a specific need for a specific kind of receiver.  That is a valid point.  Amir's view is that we have a golden opportunity to grab a great WR in this draft, and we should take the best one available.  This is also a valid view.  Again, it is a matter of what kind of approach you want to take, and both views are reasonable.

It is to be hoped that Walker returns and the whole issue becomes a moot one.

Conclusion

In my opinion, our biggest need is one man on the o-line, but this can be handled in the fourth or even fifth round.  If we pick up an extra draft pick by trading a player (or trading down) I would be open to getting a WR if a deep threat player was available.  I really think we should address our defensive needs this year before worrying about anything on offense.

On offense, my priority would be:

OL (Need)
OL (Strong want)
WR (want)
TE (extra)
HB (extra)

My strongest guess on offense is that Denver will get at least one o-lineman in the draft, no matter what.  Other decisions on the offense depend on the return of Walker, Henry, and perhaps Graham.

In the next post, I'll take a look at player types needed on defense.  This will be tricky, since we don't yet know the scheme that will be used.  But since my background is defense, and since I've been studying my butt of on Slowik, I'm up to the challenge.

Please chime in with your thoughts, questions, disagreements, and of course compliments!  : )

A special thanks to Amir for reference to his post.  Without his thoughts, my work on the WR position would not have had as much depth.  If anyone wants to start as good of a discussion on another position as I have been having with Amir, let's do it!