Thanks to HoosierTeacher for the breakdown!!

I'm going to list some things to watch for in the PITT game.  I know the PITT offense pretty well, and I think I know how they'll attack us and what we'll try to do to slow them down.

I looked up PITTs defense on some sites and saw two words that told me all we need to know about PITTs defense: Lebeau and 3-4.  Lebeau is a solid defensive coordinator, and his approach to the 3-4 is great.  He also has good personel.  Very good personel.  But good news here.  I think our offense trumps all of that.  ; )

Do I pick PITT to win?  Sorry, but yes.  Is there any hope?  Oh yeah.  This game is not a done deal.  Let's take an in depth look at the upcoming game.  Keep these points handy as you watch the game, and see if they help you grasp some key concepts in how each team approaches football and how certain players make a difference.

First I want to start with the bad news (so we can end on good note).  

1. Our defense is in trouble, even if we were playing well.  I'll start with the number one reason:  PITT TEs (Miller, Spaeth, and Tuman).  PITT has three terrific TEs.  We don't have anyone to match up with them.  Our CBs can shut down the WRs, but that's it.  Who's left to put on a TE?

Gold has the best shot of covering a TE.  He's fast and a pretty tough guy.  But there are some complications.  As the weakside LB he won't line up on Miller much if at all.  If he takes man coverage on Spaeth he's not covering the run, loses a step on the rush block, and gives up his weakside zone or containment responsibilities.  This problem gets compounded because PITT will run to the weakside more than most teams.  This is not only a personnel issue, it is a scheme issue.  We need Gold to cover the edge of the field on his side.  With a two or three TE set our system gets trumped.  And remember, Gold is our BEST chance to cover a TE.  Gulp!

Who else can cover a TE?  Not Williams.  Not in this system.  Williams either needs to cover middle zone or man a RB.  Parker is going to be hell against Denver if we don't slow him down, so Williams is out of the picture by default.

What about Webster?  Cripes.  Webster may be the key to stopping the PITT offense, and that's not a good thing.  Webster has not been playing well, and has been over pursuing a LOT.  Over-pursuit is not an indication of learning a new system.  It's an indication of not being suited for the role.  Webster doesn't have the attributes to cover Miller.  Miller has a good combination of size, strength, speed and hands.  Webster is not the kind of elite LB to cover a Miller.

Ok then, what about the safeties?  Lynch doesn't have the speed.  He'll rock your world if you come over the center of the field for a pass, but PITT knows that.  But the bottom line is we can't put Lynch in man coverage on any of PITT's TEs.  And speed isn't the only issue.  Lynch will have to be in run support for most of the game (see point 3 below).

Ferguson has the speed, but not the build to tangle with the TEs from PITT.  He'll get knocked silly.

Last resort - can we put a CB on a TE?  We do it with Gates when we play SD don't we?  Won't work here.  Big Ben is a very good QB, and can hit a WR if he gets a LB or safety trying to cover a WR.  And PITT has three good TEs, not just one.

Watch for a lot of two and even three tight end sets.  Especialy in the redzone.  If PITT gets anywhere near the endzone they WILL score, and the TEs will figure into the game plan (either as receivers or as decoys).  Near the endzone you pick your poison; either stop the run against Parker and his runblocking TEs, or cover the TEs for passes.  We can't do both.

2. The PITT run attack is more bad news.  Watch for PITT to run Parker to the left side (that's right, I said left) and up the middle.  The Steelers like to run off tackle, and we'll have a pass rushing DE there to meet him.  Not good.  They can also run up the gut, where they'll get a dose of Sam Adams.  Now our system can handle this, but the problem is that PITT has been doing their power run scheme a lot longer than we have been running the Jim Bates defensive scheme.  I give the edge to PITT.  Parker is no joke my friends, and neither is the smash mouth style of the PITT o-line.

PITT will also mix in (very few) sweeps to the outside to keep us honest.  Our scheme is built to stop the outside run (which means speed rushers for the most part too).  But here we have some bizzare problems.

Think about this.  We are under a system built to stop runs to the outside.  We line up our DEs wider to the outside, and our LBs should contain runs to the inside where other players make the tackles.  BUT, we would have problems if PITT runs outside.  What's up with that?

Three problems.  One is that the PITT offensive system relies on tough WRs who are expected to run block on the edges.  Two is that PITT has the extra TEs to help the outside run (most teams have one good TE, while PITT has three).  And third, Parker is not a speed demon, he's a bulldozer.  He won't juke a DE or OLB, he'll run them over.

3. PITT likes to eat up the clock, and we'll let them.

PITT is a run heavy team.  The new coach in PITT is letting Big Ben throw more than Cower ever did, and that worries me too.  But PITT wants to run the ball on Denver because we have great CBs and because our rush defense hasn't clicked yet.  PITT also wants to take our fans out of the game early, and a great way to do that is with drives that eat up the clock.

And we'll let them.  The genius of the Bates system is that the other team has to grind out the ball on the ground, or the other team gets inpatient and has to throw the ball deep.  The more plays the other team uses the more likely the chance of a turnover.  We let the other team eat up clock until they make a mistake.  This is a solid way to approach defensive football, but maybe not when it plays into the hands of the Dennision style of offense that WANTS to eat up the clock.  We need to hope for an early lead so the PITT offense can't play their brand of ball.

4. Sam Adams should be a key guy for us against a team like PITT, but he might not be on Sunday.

Sam was built to take on PITT.  He's got the build to tie up two or even three lineman.  His only weakness is that he is so big he can't stay on the field and catch his breath for more than a few plays, but that's ok because we plan for that.  (Sam gets murdered in no huddle offenses).  In fact, CINCY picked up Sam for the very reason we have him: to stop the PITT line.  Cincy dropped him because they didn't think he was doing the job, but I disagree with CINCY's thinking.  Sam is never going to be a tackle machine nor a sack artists, and I've read a lot of so called experts critical of Sam's stats.  They don't get it.  Sam isn't built to get stats.  He's built to occupy enough players on the other team so that OTHER players get the glory of sacks and tackles.

So given my lovefest with Sam Adams, why am I critical of him before the first snap of Sunday's game?  It's not so much what Sam isn't capable of doing, it's how the current players around Sam make his job harder.  Let me explain.

Most of the run plays will be either up the gut towards Sam, or plays to the weakside (Sam's right).  Sam will have little to no help from the DE (probaly Engelberger) because our DE's will line up wide.  If Engelberger lines up he'll try to keep the run to the inside (containment), but now Sam and Williams have to make the tackle.  there isn't much room for error.  Plus with two and three TE sets we can expect one or two TEs to assist the run, taking out the DE and causing more havoc on Sam and Gold (who will have to cut back to the inside to stop the run).

Expect to see Lynch brought up to zone middle to try to keep the run in check for this reason.

5. Special Teams.  Enough said.

Ok, I'll elaborate.  But not much.  Our STs are not looking good, and PITT (while not great) is good enough.  Elam is typically excellent, but have you noticed him this year?  His two game winning kicks make us forget that he was missing some kicks too.  I'm high on Elam, so I hope this isn't an age issue or something.

Sauebrun hasn't been his normal self either, and that worries me too.  Can he kick without the roids?  I believe in the man.  He made a mistake, and Shanny is giving him another chance.  Shanny doesn't give many players second chances if they screw up while playing for Denver, so Todd must be special.  I trust our coach.  (Sometimes Shanny gives chances to players who screwed up in other places, like T. Henry and M. Clarett.  But he is quick to dump you if you screw up in DEN).

Our coverage teams aren't hot either.  If we want to beat PITT we want field position.  We MUST make the PITT possessions eat up clock, so we need for their drives to start back in their own side of the field.

6. Nalen out for the season.  We don't want that, especially against PITT.  Myers will step up and do well, but it's not the same.  (I predict Nalen will retire.  At least it clears cap room, but I'd rather have Nalen.  Wouldn't you?)

Depressed yet?  Don't be.  There is hope.

THE GOOD NEWS! --  (Hooray!)

1. Shanny knows how to prep a team and game plan during a bye week better than any other coach in football.  He will make the right adjustments and focus on fixing our weaknesses.  The big problem is the player match-ups I listed above, but Shanny knows that and he will scheme for it.

2. Mile High air.  The altitude affects teams like PITT even more than most teams.  And the effect will be huge.

I won't go into the medicine of biochemistry too much.  I can tell you as a former army medic that the altitude in Denver makes people lose their endurance.  It doesn't affect people who have been in Colorado for about three months because their blood chemistry adjusts for the low oxygen levels.  But why will PITT have it worse than other teams that visit Mile High?

PITT plays a very physical game.  They also keep their offense on the field more than most teams (striving for time of possession).  This typically hurts the defense more than the offense.  But our guys are acclimatized and their guys aren't.  Plus PITT is traveling to the west.  They are playing later than their bodies want to.  Two of our division rivals travel east, and KC doesn't travel too far west to play us.

Look for Denver to look fresher in the second half and fourth quarter.  BONUS - Look for Travis Henry to "look better" as the game goes on since the PITT LBs and linemen will tire out.

3. A lot can be said about the 3-4 scheme the way Lebeau runs it.  I'm not a 3-4 fan, but the way Lebeau does it is terrific.  BUT, the great PITT 3-4 has some holes that DEN is built to take advantage of.  Yes friends, I expect Denver to do some damage!

The key to any 3-4 is the nose tackle, reagrdless of what style the coordinator runs.  Hampton is one of the best in the league, but he's playing hurt this week.  This is huge for DEN.

4. Most 3-4 systems rely on trickery.  You have to have a nose tackle hold the line, and then blitz a LB (or two).  The offense never knows where the blitz is coming from.  Lebeau is a master of the blitz, and his system relies heavily on blitzing.  I could write an entire diary on his approach to the 3-4, but suffice it to say we can expect HEAVY blitzes.  So what's good for Denver here?

Travis Henry.  The one cut, down hill, power running of Henry nuetralizes the type of blitzes we'll see from PITT.  In most 3-4s we have the 3 linemen protect the LBs on run plays so that the LBs can "roam".  But Lebeau doesn't run it that way.  He used blitzes not only against the pass, but on rushing plays to break up the play in the offensive backfield.  Doesn't work against the zoneblock, and doesn't work against downhill.  Score one for the good guys.

5. PITTs CBs are underated, and they are really good at safety.  But their super safety (Polamalu) is injured.  It didn't make a difference last week for them, but it will this week.

We have three great receivers in Walker (who has been missing with injury, but we get him back this week I think), Marshall (man this kid turned out to be great), and Stokely.

AND THAT's NOT ALL!  We are the other team in the NFL with a two to three TE threat.  If the LBs of PITT peal off to cover TEs, who's gonna stop Henry?  If they cover Henry, who's gonna cover the TEs?

Being a defensive minded guy, I can tell you how I think the PITT defense will handle this problem.  They won't use the LBs against the RB nor against the WRs.  Huh?  That's right.  They'll stick to the blitz, hoping to rattle Cutler and hoping to prey on Holland and Pears.  As I said earlier, they blitz not only to get to the QB, but to break up run plays before they get started.  Because Denver runs the gut with Henry in this match-up, I still think Denver comes out on top.  Our downhill interior running doesn't need time to develop.

6. One bright spot on defense.  Both Holmes and Ward (PITT WRs) will play this week, but they are recovering from injuries.  Now add in Bailey and Bly and... well, you get the picture.

7. Despite the vaunted blitz packages of the PITT 3-4, and despite the experts predicting our man Cutler struggling, I think Cutler gets it done.

As Denver fans we know Cutler is under rated.  Does he make rookie mistakes?  Sure.  But fewer than most rookies.  He has a rocket arm, and can throw against his direction of travel like (dare I say it?) John Elway.  The kid also learned to scramble playing behind a horrible Vabderbilt O-line.  He's also darn smart for a rookie.  Most important in my book is that the kid has the calm presence of a Montana.  Is he an Elway or a Montana?  No, of course not.  But he's on track.  One day people will be comparing QBs to Cutler.  I believe in Cutler.

How does he stack against the excellent blitz scheme of Lebeau?  One, he likes to scramble.  That helps a lot against the blitz.  Go ahead and flush Cutler out of the pocket, he throws on the run better than in the pocket.

PITT will blitz from the outside (even with their ILBs) to keep Cutler in the pocket and to prevent bootleg plays.  But with solid receivers, TEs to dump off to, and at least one RB to pass block I think Cutler uses his feet like a Brady to make small movements in the pocket to keep the plays alive.  Cutler also has a good run game when he hands off to keep the bad guys honest.  Henry on the screen should scare PITT too.

Ok, there are more pluses than minuses.  I just feel the weight of the minuses outweigh the pluses for now.  But enough ups and downs.  We are in for a tough week, and I think things get better after this game.  If we DO manage to win I think it will be a sign that DEN is ready to start dominating.

Go Broncos!