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Packers 19 - Broncos 13 - The Flip Side

The post below was left as a comment to HoosierTeacher's breakdown of the loss to the Packers.  I thought it was thought out enough to deserve it's own post...Thanks to ejruiz777 for taking the time....TSG

I hate to state the obvious, but our record is misleading.  Only four teams have a worse point differential than ours (-63) this year and they have combined for three wins this year.  We are two seconds (one more off the clock in Buffalo and one more before calling the infamous timeout against Oakland) from being the one win team that our point differential indicates we should be.  For all the grit we showed in our too-close-for-comfort wins and this loss to Green Bay, we still got outclassed by the Colts in Indy, as well as manhandled by the Jags and embarassed by the Chargers at home.  

Our schedule may be favorable (a good team would finish up 10-6 with this start) but I just don't by that this team can win every game that it should.  Moreover - and Shanny himself would agree with me here - we play for Super Bowls or nothing here in Denver.  Benching Plummer in favor of Cutler during Jay's rookie season did not give us a better chance to win then, but the move was made with the future in mind because last year's squad simply couldn't compete for a championship.  Now it looks as though the same holds true today and, if we don't embrace a rapid and deep rebuilding of the defense, we may well be left with mediocrity for years to come.

All things being perfect, we're set on offense; but things are never perfect in the NFL.  Walker is fragile, Marshall is a hazard and Stokely's no spring chicken, so that perceived strength is far from assured.  We brought in a feature back and it looks as though he'll be facing a longterm suspension.  Mike Bell has falled so rapidly and completely that he wasn't even activated for a game in which we used two undrafted players at RB.  God knows how Young will hold up as the man and forgive me for thinking that every team in the league passed on him throughout the entire draft for a reason that will someday become painfully obvious to us all.  Then again, it's never really mattered for our success who lines up in the backfield.  Cutler is a stud, our TEs are set (though I'd like to see them each become more balanced and less specialized) as is our OL, so I'm with you there.  But you see how the picture is much muddier than the one you optimistically present.

On defense, I doubt we'll agree much.  Our CB tandem is very good, but the window of opportunity for them is closing.  While I see Champ being able to extend his career as a Pro Bowl caliber safety thanks to his athletisism, toughness, football IQ and leadership (a la Rod Woodson) I can't say that Bly will age well.  Lynch is a glorified LB at this point and Ferguson has been utterly useless for quite a while now.  The fact that these two have not been threatened with replacement (not even in obvious passing situations) lets me know that our depth there is garbage.  D.J. should thrive at MLB (or back on the outside if he's moved again), but there isn't another guy on the roster that I feel comfortable with.  Gold may be fast, but straight line speed isn't everything and it fades quickly in big bodies.  I don't think I need to say anything about the other side there.  I'm all for letting our young guys up front play (we did pass on a guy that should be playing every down at safety this year and for the foreseeable future in order to redundantly draft DEs on the first day) and I hope they pan out, but I haven't seen much out of them yet.  We'll need a big body that's more than just big to play along side Thomas because everyone else at DT has been worthless.

You were right about the special teams: they really seem to be looking up and they're the main reason why our balanced, high-powered offense has been so unable to score points.  That said, Elam and Saurbrun are quite old and they're likely to decline.

Bottom line is this: this team is much closer to the bottom of the barrell than it is to the cream of the crop.  Every single indicator out there shows just that.  Not only that, but our future isn't as secure as one might think at first glance.  There's a lot of work to be done and we may well be facing a prolonged period of mediocrity and hopelessness.  Here's the thing - and why I'll always prefer college sports to their pro counterparts - we'd probably be better off if we were winless and on pace for an elite prospect in the draft.  We need to stop wasting play time on vets that don't deserve it and rushing our stars back from injury to play at far less than 100% in order to try to steal a game this year.  Everyday experience would be just as good as playoff minutes and, more importantly, everybody on this roster needs to know that you can't play like they have and compete in this league.

Wow... this is an epic, rambling rant.  I apologize (I actually doubt this will be read, now that I look back at the sheer size of it) and hope that my dissent is not seen as a personal thing, bad fandom or simply ridiculous.  What more can I say other than this: Go Broncos!

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I agree completely
So here's an "I agree post" for you.

I think loyalty is important, especially when it comes to a sport that, probably more than any, NEEDS the entire team to work together.  But I cannot for the life of me figure out why Shanny treats a holdout or re-negotiator like Brutus but it's okay for a vetran to constantly hurt the team's chances by being on the field at all.  

If these guys are good enough to take up roster space for the Broncos then cut em loose and let the damn Detroit Lions have them.

I think some of us Bronco fans have come to the conclusion we are a rebuilding team.  The Base for a good team is there, but we have got to stop trying to win the Superbowl every year with vetran has beens and never was-es.  Get some young talent around Cutler.  And younger vets on the Defense

Was DJ Williams really worth taking over Steven Jackson?

John Elway in the Hall is a no brainer - what about: Randy Gradishar Terrel Davis Gary Zimmerman Steve Atwater

by BlueNOrangeNIdaho on Oct 30, 2007 7:55 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Excellent post Ejru!
In fact, excellent enough of a comment to make the front page!  Good calls!

I don't think we are really in too much disagreement on some points.  My optimism is focused very narrowly.  I don't want people to give up on a season that is only (just) under the halfway mark when we are only one game back in our division race.  I'll break down where I agree and disagree.

OFFENSE

On offense, consider that we have played some of the best teams in the NFL stacked into our schedule so far and that our offense has been able to get to the redzone numerous times.  Let's look at how these teams are ranked based on if the playoffs were held today (tiebreaks included).

INDY - ranked 1st in the NFL.

GB - ranked 2nd in the NFC; 4th in the NFL.

JAX - ranked 3rd in the AFC.

PITT - ranked 4th in the AFC.

SD - ranked 7th in the AFC after a late start that began against DEN.

You would be right to say that points are all that matter, but we ARE moving the ball pretty darned well, and we're doing it against the elite teams that we've had the misfortune to be scheduled against.

Walker played like a stud last year, so I don't think this injury was related to his stint in GB.  Let's not give up on the guy.  Stokely is a career slot receiver filling on for Walker as our number one WR and getting the job done pretty well.  Marshall is a young guy with a lot of talent just like anyone you might bring in if you blew up the roster, and his play at #2 has been solid.  And let's not forget Martinez, who had a good night.

At running back Henry was a great fit that stabbed us in the back.  Yes, he's gone.  But Young looked good last night against an elite run stopping team (you can tell from Coach's after game comments that he was immpressed, and that the blown call that brough back Young's long run was bogus).  And I wrote before the game that Bell should have had the start, not Hall.  Bell is a solid back-up.  Sapp is also good.

Cutler is a stud who moves us down the field too, even though the redzone is cursed.  Why give him a pass?  Shouldn't we drop him too?  No, of course not.  He's doing his job like the rest of the offense, just not getting over the redzone monster.  In that sense he's no different than the other players on offense getting critical remarks.

And the TEs are excellent.  Sure Scheff specializes, but he has been an excellent target for Cutler, and not bad in blocking.  Graham has been good in receiving, but we aren't giving him too many chances because he is so excellent in blocking (and he's contributing to our banged up o-line).

I don't change a thing on this offense, except to add some depth to the o-line.

DEFENSE

Believe it or not, we agree on some things here.  I am critical of a lot of things on defense, but might modifiy your points a little.

Our CBs are good but the window is closing.  Our CBs are probably the best to ever be paired together.  CB is a tough position to play.  Get burned once in a game (as both Bailey and Bly did) and people focus on that.  People forget their pro-bowl status and their insane interception numbers (even when QBs avoid throwing them the ball).  No, we keep these guys.  Maybe when Bailey is in the last year of his contract and we can't afford to renew we trade for a first round pick.  I don't see why Bly wouldn't "age well".  He got burned once, and played recovering from a seperated shoulder.  He's been doing well.  We came into this game the league's best pass defense, so don't give up on our corners.

We agree 100% on the safeties.  Lynch HAS become a glorified LB.  Ferguson hasn't shown us anything.  and you're right that we have no depth at the position.  That's why I've advocated safety as the number one or number two draft concern for this team.  With excellent safeties both of those TD passes would have been held to long gains.

Why let Williams off of the hook?  Because he might get better?  Vets Bailey and Bly already get this team a number 1 pass defense and it sounds like you're worried about their future?  I expected Williams to click by the GB game.  He did well against PITT, but now we're back to several players being dragged by a RB for several yards.  Either put Williams back on the outside position where he excelled, or put a lot of the blame on his shoulders until he performs.

I share your dissapointment in Gold.  He used to be a stud, and I was thrilled when we got him back from (wasn't it TB?).  His speed used to allow him to cover anyone (even WRs) and to cover for the rare mistake.  But he's not tackling now.  But heck, who is?  Webster is just a question mark.  He sucks when everyone else does, but played great against PITT.  LB (along with safety) is the other position I advocate for draft help.

At DE we did well in the game we started the rookies and Doom (PITT).  Why we don't stick to them I don't know.  Rice didn't show me anything last night.  Let those young guys play.

And we agree at DT.  I just don't know how to solve the issue there.  We've drafted AND gone after big names in FA and we still suck in the center of the DEF line.

We improved with ST when we put Martinez in to return.  Here again I was frustrated.  We had several people do returns, but only Martinez did well.  STICK WITH MARTINEZ ON RETURNS!

You can say that Elam and Saurbrun are getting old, but you can be old at those positions.  Elam is the reason we aren't 0-7 right now, and Saurbrun was aiming kicks inside the ten pretty well last night.  Don't let them go until they retire.  That's standard for Ks and Ps.

I don't think your post was ridiculous, personal, nor rambling.  You make solid points.  We ARE near the bottom in terms of point differentials, and at the end of the game only points matter.

But I also believe that at the end of the season the only thing that matters is the number of wins in your column, and we are only one game back.  One game back in our division despite playing:

  • Three of the top four teams in the AFC
  • The 2nd best NFC team
...and losing four games.

This tells me that we need to shoot for the playoffs this year (and we'll get an early elimination), and to make some solid moves in the offseason.  I just wouldn't jettisison some of the players you might.

One last point.  Some teams start strong and finish weak, and some teams start weak and finish strong.  We are a team that has shown we can pick up yards on offense and stop the pass.  We are only a rush defense from having a turnaround in the second half of the season.

Again, excellent post.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Oct 30, 2007 8:53 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Answer
An attempt at an answer to "What do we do about the DT?"

Time.

Really, I think it might just be that simple.  We still have to draft and sign for depth, since Adams might not eve make it to the end of the season, but I think they just need time.

by Jeremy Bolander on Oct 30, 2007 12:11 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you're right n/t
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Oct 30, 2007 12:18 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Walker's knee
It is the same knee that was surgically repaired while he was with GB and will be the third surgery if I'm not mistaken. There was controversy surrounding the first surgery because the team wanted the one physician to do it and Walker insisted on someone else in Houston. I doubt anyone in the public will find out the whole story, but my guess is that the first repairs aren't doing the job.

by olpete on Oct 30, 2007 4:27 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes...
...but didn't he have a full season on the knee last year without a problem?  I may be wrong.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Oct 30, 2007 9:38 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

you know better than I do,
but even if he did, it doesn't mean that the repairs aren't holding up or perhaps he played some with pain. Like I say, I don't know and one thing I can guarantee you is that you won't get a straight answer from Walker.

by olpete on Oct 31, 2007 6:21 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree...
with your comment that we are closer to the bottom of the barrel than to the cream of the crop.  It is funny to hear Bronco fans talk about an 8-8 team like they are completely worthless.  Bring a tear to my eye to see that I am not the only Broncomaniac out there that has such high expectations.

I agree with you that we are not a good football team, but we are not worthless either.  We are AVERAGE!  8-8 is average.  4-12 would be awful.

Keep in mind that TD was ignored by every single team all the way into the 6th round!  Selvin Young was only ignored one round longer than that. ;)  One thing I didn't like last night from that young man was his red zone play.  That and it seemed he was either tackled for a big loss or a big gainer.  

We lost this game on three critical plays.  The fumble at the one yard line, the horrible holding call on the big Selvin Young run, and the disgustingly inaccurate pass to Brandon Marshall in the end zone at the end of the game.  All three of those plays would have resulted in a Bronco victory in my opinion.

Things are not as bad as you think they are.  Look at how many NEW faces we got on Offense and Defense...this year is a "Let's get to know each other" year.  Next year we will be much closer to the cream of the crop.  Have faith brother!

by Tim Lynch on Oct 30, 2007 10:25 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Just a small note.
We're 3-4, not 8-8.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Oct 30, 2007 12:07 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

My point was...
We are well on our way to 8-8.  I don't think we'll hit 7-9.  We should be around 7-8 going into the last game and we shall win that one.  Shanny will make sure of it. ;)

by Tim Lynch on Oct 30, 2007 3:25 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Future
This team needs another good draft soon. Champ looks like he is losing a step (Not just from last night, I have thought that all year, esp when Dallas Clark, A TE, Schooled him.

The way Champ tackles, I would love to see him shift to SS or FS next year. I think Foxworth should be resigned and put in his spot. They need to draft more CB's & LB's next year as well. Offensive linemen I am not worried about, and unless a plum falls in the lap, I hope there is no need to draft more DLinemen beyond another DT.

RB's, No future problems forseen (if ever:).

Wr's... Marshall should pan out ok, and who else has been really impressed with Glenn Martinez? That guy can run and he was always showing up in the play. Let's hope those 2 guys form a very nice young core!

by Fallen on Oct 30, 2007 1:21 PM MDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow....
I mean...wow!  Champ Bailey has lost a step?  He only had 3 INTs in 2004...so is that when he started to lose a step?  But then how did het get 18 picks in two seasons after that?

All I am saying is that defenses are trying to figure Bailey out and some teams might have found a chink in his armor.  He has not lost a step.  He dominated the line against GB after he was burned for that touchdown.  I like seeing Champ playing pissed off...he is much more effective when he is angry than when he is arrogantly "the best ever".  ;)  

You must have forgotten the huge INT Bailey had against Oakland.  It may have been his only one, but picks tend to come in bunches.  He got burned because he wasn't 100%, but I promise you he played like he was 100% after that burn.  The man has heart.  

As far as moving Champ to Safety...how would that benefit our defense?  Having Champ covering one whole side of the field should be giving our defense an advantage, but so far that has not happened.  

I will agree with you about Glenn Martinez.  He likes to get physical.  I saw at least two punts where he refused to waive for the fair catch just so he could smack one of the oncoming opposing players.  That takes a lot of balls in my opinion - To take a shot at someone while you are standing still and they are running full speed towards you.  

Take it easy.

by Tim Lynch on Oct 30, 2007 3:39 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree Zap
The curse that GREAT CBs have is that when they get burned even once in a game everyone thinks something is wrong.

NOBODY goes without getting getting burned.  Bailey hasn't lost a step at all.  And moving him to safety would be a catastrophic mistake.  He's a man coverage guy, not a safety zone kind of guy.

Bailey is one of the only consistant people on this defense, and the only guy on defense playing like a star.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Oct 30, 2007 9:42 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

I Love Champ, But...
I hate to pick on the greatest corner alive, but didn't Indy do just that throwing to (of all people) Dallas Clark while Bailey was in coverage?  Wasn't that James Jones that blew by him for one of GB's scores?  Don't get me wrong, he's still one of the best (if not the very best) but he's certainly not up to par.  The fact that we have to put him out there on an island, even at substainally less than 100%, is a testament to how bad our depth at the position and our safeties are.  I'm not saying move the man to safety next week or even next year, I just think the shift might come sooner than some would think.  I actually believe that he could/will make that transition successfully because he has a lot of the attributes most corners lack; the man can tackle, has an excellent football IQ and is a team leader.

by ejruiz on Oct 31, 2007 2:16 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I disagree on this one.
  1. Bailey shut down Harrison while he (Harrison) was in the game (Harrison left with an injury).  Because of Bailey INDY had to beat us with the run.
  2. Yes, Bailey got beat for a TD.  ANYONE will get beat.  Deion Sanders got beat too.  Nobody is perfect.  But Bailey is clearly the best, and much less likey to get beat than anyone else.  (By your tough standard Manning should never throw an interception, and Babe Ruth should never strike out).  I'm being sarcastic, and don't mean what I'm saying with any hate.  I'm just saying that you shouldn't rip on a guy who just came into this week off of an injury, is a probowl grandmaster at his position, holds all kinds of records, then gets burned on one play.
I don't think you'll get many takers here on Bailey being anything less than the best at his job.

3. Bailey is on an island for two very good reasons.  One, he is good enough to do it.  Two, we don't have a running game and have to "waste" a safety on helping on the box.  As good as Bailey is, he should still have two safeties behind him (just like a great Peter Forsborg in hockey still should have a goalie behind him in the net).

Bottom line: I don't see bailey having to move to safety even years down the road.  By the time his contract expires he may move on because we won't be able to afford him.  The next team will keep him at corner.  I don't believe Deion retired as a safety.

I also think that a lot of people look at safeties as weak corners, and consider the positions to be interchangeable.  Denver has been doing this, and the safety position sucks as a result.

Safeties shouldn't be glorified LBs, and they shouldn't be back-up CBs either.  I wouldn't put a Dawkins or a Reed at corner, and I wouldn't put Bailey or a Deion at safety.  If they can't play their own position anymore they shouldn't be good enough to play another position.  I guess I don't think safety is a dumping ground for CBs on the downside of their career.  But at any rate I don't think bailey has lost a step.

Just my thoughts.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Oct 31, 2007 3:28 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Overshooting.
You tried to take my comment to its logical conclussion, which is usually a good idea, but only if you get the point right from the start.  I didn't mean to imply that corners, all or even most, should become safeties when they lose a step (notice how I haven't suggested this as a possibility for Bly) but rather that Champ is the sort of guy that could have a second career as a safety a la Rod Woodson.  He's that rare of a player.  I alos didn't say that he or his teams will make that decision, but rather that he/they could if they wanted to.  I'll stand by my original position: Champ could be a Pro Bowl safety.  That's not a slight, it's a compliment.

Sanders is a comparable corner to Bailey IN COVERAGE, but Deion was afraid of contact and tackled as though he was playing flag football. Please stop comparing the two as though they're somehow interchangeable; that's like saying that Tim Tebow and Matt Ryan (Dennis Dixon and Colt Brennan, if you have a left coast bias) are somehow the same because they are equally valuable and productive.  Apples and oranges, my friend, apples and oranges.

I said Champ was "probably" the best corner in football even this year instead of "defintely" because he is playing at a lesser level than last year (he was super human then and he's been hurt now) and I just haven't seen many of the other elite stars at the position play this year.  It may be blasphemy, especially here in Broncos [cyber] country, but it's objective and realistic.  Dealing in superlatives is a bit silly anyway, don't you think?

by ejruiz on Oct 31, 2007 9:43 PM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough
It just seems way too early to even think about moving Bailey, and I don't think I would at any point down the road at any rate.  I understand your reasoning though.

You're right on the Deion comparison.  My point wasn't to say they are simular in style but I didn't make that clear.  I only meant to use the comparision that both corners are true lock down corners (an overused term) that take away one side of the field and are TD-interception threats.  Bailey is the better CB in my estimation because he does such a fabulous job of supporting the run defense.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Nov 1, 2007 12:42 AM MDT up reply actions   0 recs

In General.
I hate to be all gloom-and-doom (the fact that we had just lost a heartbreaker didn't help) but I prefer to err on the side of pessimism.  I'd rather embrace rebuilding, even if it's not entirely necessary, than advocate for our current strategy (a combination of contending and rebuilding that I like to call pretending) for another second.  Maybe it would be best if Shanny relinquished his GM title and focused, along with his coaches, on game-planning and player developement.  Let someone else take over the grand scheme, even though it should be someone that Shanny could have mutual respect with.  Sometimes you're too close to a project to see the flaws and I fear that might be the case for our head coach and this team.  The Denver Broncos have not been a franchise of mediocrity, at least not in the Shanahan era, but I fear we might be sliding in that direction.  It's time for a change, is what I'm saying; maybe not one so dramatic as I may have implied above, but a big one nonetheless.  Allow me to butcher a classic Thomas Jefferson quote so as to defend myself: question with boldness even the very direction of your beloved franchises; because they should more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fanaticism.

by ejruiz on Oct 31, 2007 2:25 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

I hear you.
But I'll take Shanny's approach.

I like a coach who has winning seasons year after year, and is always a contender for the playoffs in a very tough divsion.  When you've had two SBs and the number of playoff appearances of Shanny you shouldn't fix what isn't broke.

As long as you have a shot at the playoffs you have a shot at making it to the SB.  Don't forget that there are 31 other teams out there, and most of them don't have anything at all like what we've had in terms of success with Mike, and the way Mike has done things.

Last year everyone was cheering when we kept other teams from scoring any TDs the first part of the season.  Then the defense fell apart and everyone gets mad.  This year we entered the season with what looked like an all star cast during offseason pick-ups and everyone got excited again.  But everyone got upset because they forgot that we also had a large influx of new players, people playing at new positions (Williams), and a new coordinator.

I guess I feel that so many fans are so high and low on this team and it bounces back and forth (manic-depressive maybe).  Coach stays steady and keeps plugging and I like that approach.  It pays off most years when we have a shot at the postseason.  We will NOT be a SB team most years.  It just doesn't work that way.  But Mike gives us a shot.  I prefer the partnership that Mike has with Ted Sundquist in the offseason.  Ted is another reason why I feel our team does so well most years.

I believe that a look at Denver's record against the rest of the division in terms of playoff appearences and interdivision wins since the arrival of Mike shows a favorable rating.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Oct 31, 2007 3:48 AM MDT reply actions   0 recs

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