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Bears 37 - Broncos 34....A Season Killer

The Denver Broncos came to Chicago to play the Bears riding a wave of solid play and a two-game winning streak.  Tied for first place in a mediocre division, the Broncos, some how, some way, controlled their own destiny.  There seemed to be an aura of positivity that surrounded the team and fans alike.  Jay Cutler was being lauded as "having arrived" and the Broncos seemed primed to go on a late season run bolstered by a weak remaining schedule.  For 55 minutes on a cold, wet afternoon everything went as planned, that is, until the problems that have plagued the Broncos all season came back to haunt them.  In that final 5 minutes, the Broncos not only lost a game, but very well might have lost a season.

We can look to lay blame all over the place.  I direct it at two people - Todd Sauerbrun and Mike Shanahan.  I'm sorry, but while I firmly believe the coaching staff(Shanny's ultimate responsibility) did a piss-poor job of managing a football game yesterday Sauerbrun can NOT get off without some liability.  It started early in the week with his asinine comments about kicking the ball to Devin Hester.  Does anything good ever come from a kicker opening his trap?  Ask Mike Vanderjagt.  Even after his verbal idiocy, Sauerbrun actually did a solid job in the first half, angling his kicks a dropping them short, trading some field position in order to avoid the big play.  The result was a 13-6 lead at halftime, that seemed much larger due to the Bears' complete inability to move the ball on offense.

Something happened after halftime, however, that I am still trying to get my head around.  Somewhere, the coaching staff scrapped the strategy used in the first half and not once, but twice, kicked the ball deep, right down the middle, to Hester.  The result?  What should have been a blow out Broncos victory became a game in doubt.  The Bears, a team that looked beaten multiple times on Sunday, were repeatedly energized by the heroics of their Special Teams, and the complete breakdown of the Broncos' unit.

The play that really hurt, that really changed the complexion of the game, was the blocked punt, a play that I put squarely at the right foot of Todd Sauerbrun.  The Bears had over-loaded the line to Sauerbrun's right, and the Broncos were not in a max-protect configuration, worried, of course about Hester, which means a man would come clean from the edge.  Normally that isn't a huge deal, because it is the punter's job to locate that guy and kick away from him.  Sauerbrun did the exact opposite and in his haste to make sure the punt was angled right kicked the ball right into the chest of Charles Tillman.  That play gave the Bears offense the opportunity it needed and they cashed it in, scoring a touchdown on Adrian Peterson's 5 yard run that seemed to break the will of the Broncos defense.  Peterson seemed to be stacked up at the line of scrimmage only to carry most of the Broncos defense into the end-zone, the type of sheer-will play a championship team makes and non-playoff teams do not.

There were solid signs, of course.  Jay Cutler is rounding into a solid quarterback, but the offense still cannot score touchdown's in the red zone.  While we will focus on the special teams mishaps, we can easily target two separate First and Goal opportunities that ended in 3 points instead of 7, 8 critical points that the Broncos could have used, don't you think?  Red Zone miscues have been a calling card of the Broncos the past couple of seasons, and until the Broncos get better at scoring TD's they are going to lose close games no matter how the other team scores.

I know alot of you will hold on to the hope that the Broncos are simply one game out of the division lead.  That is true, and I will hang on to that thread along with the rest of you.  But numbers, though they can be twisted, don't lie. The Broncos have scored 221 points while giving up 295.  Only the Browns have given up more points(311).  Of course, the Browns have scored 315 points this season, so their offense can make up for some of that.  The bigger number is the +/-.  The Broncos are sitting at a -74.  Only 6 teams are worse --

Rams    -113
49'ers  -104
Jets        -97
Dolphins -94
Bills       -91
Falcons  -89

To be fair, three of those teams face the Patriots twice a year.  The Bills have faced the Pats twice this season, the Dolphins and Jets each have a game left so you'd expect those numbers to be a bit out of whack.  Add to that that each of the AFC East teams face the highest scoring team in the NFC as well, the Cowboys, and the numbers can get completely out of whack.  The Broncos, on the other hand, don't play the Patriots or Cowboys this season, and only the Colts rank in the Top 5 in scoring.

The combined record of the 6 teams above?  15-50.  Read it again, 15-50.  That's with Buffalo sporting the same record - 5-6 - as the Broncos.  yes, the offense has played better, scored more, than they were at the beginning of the season, but the Broncos are still giving up points in bunches, regardless of where the points are coming from.

Overall, the give Mike Shanahan alot of credit for having this team remotely in the playoff picture with a QB who just completed his first full season (16 games) as a starting QB, off the field issues galore, injuries to key personnel everywhere, and a pending drug suspension.  He has done his best to disguise the weaknesses of a young team.  Yesterday, however, Shanny and the rest of the coaching staff let the Broncos down.  It is their job to put the players in the best position to win, and while most times it be the fault of the players for a lack of execution, yesterday that was not the case.

The Broncos will try to rebound on Sunday against Oakland, once again on the road.  This game should not be considered a lock by any stretch.  One thing going for us is the Raiders finally won a game in the AFC West, beating the Chiefs.  It was a streak that had to end sometime.  The Broncos had better be ready for 60 minutes of battle because a loss to the Raiders, no matter what the cause, would officially end the Broncos season, while leaving us with an entire year of bad taste in our mouths.

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It
is gonna be ugly next week.

We need to get off to a good start.  So far, the only games we have scored on our first drive is PIT (TD), KC (FG), TEN(TD).  I am hoping we can get a TD on our first drive, and set the tone for a solid all around game.

I'll be happy if I never see Devin Hester again.  Ever.

by styg50 on Nov 26, 2007 6:23 AM MST   0 recs

The only way
we will see Hester again will be at a Super Bowl, based on the scheduling.  If that is what it takes to get a rematch, then it would be okay to see him again, as long as all the kicks go out of bounds!

by Arctic Bronco on Nov 27, 2007 12:00 AM MST to parent up   0 recs

guys...
i got back from the game late last night and was suffering from a cold too, so i refrained from reading about all the gory details.

the only comment i have is that while there were plenty of opportunities blown, and the broncos simply gave away the game... i believe the game was absolutely lost on that illegal formation penalty.  no penalty and the broncos woulda had the bears pinned deep, down 2 TDs, with less than 9 minutes to play.  even despite the 2 return TDs by Hester, we would be talking about how great the broncos are today rather than how bad they are.

stupid cliche rings true: game of inches...

by tunga77 on Nov 26, 2007 8:00 AM MST   0 recs

As always a lot to chew on.
Great job as always Guru.

I'll outline my thoughts, since you put so much out there.

  1. You are right about Saurbrun.  Shooting off his mouth WAS very Vanderjadgtesque.  While I put more blame on O'Brien, I'm no longer letting Vanderbrun off the hook.  Good call.
  2. You are right about Shanahan being responsible.  But I divide "fault/blame" and "responsibility".  Mike lets his people do their job, and takes the responsibility for their actions.  But the fault for making the foolish decisions lies at the feet of O'Brien.  The buck stops with Mike, but on Sunday it started with O'Brien (in my opinion).
  3. I would ammend your assesment of the scoring differential.  I think if you take into account that teams improve or decline (or even stay the same) over the course of time, it might be more reasonable to "track" the differentials.  That is, take perhaps a span of 4 or 5 games and track the changes by dropping the oldest game and adding the newest game.
We're together on hanging on the thread.  It looks much harder, but not immpossible.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Nov 26, 2007 10:01 AM MST   0 recs

Scoring...
I tend to look at the whole picture, but for fun we'll break it down by month....

September - minus-23 (2-2)
October   - minus-41 (1-2)
November  - minus-10 (2-2)

I guess you can say we got better in October but the results is still the same.  This team has yet to play a month where they scored more than their opponent.  We have yet to go over .500 in any month.  We've played 11 games.  At what point do you say, "We are what our record says we are" and nothing more.  

I know there are areas where the team is trending upwards, but the lag in other areas are still there and will probably remain all season.

by TheSportsGuru on Nov 26, 2007 10:13 AM MST to parent up   0 recs

Of course you are right.
The season record is the ultimate stat and there's no way around it.  As a coach though, one might also be looking at the play of individual players.  I think the play has picked up quite a bit.

I'm prepping a diary on tracking the point differential using a four game base.  I found some interesting nuggets, but it's been delayed by the tragic Taylor news.  I'll get it out in an hour or two.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Nov 26, 2007 10:55 AM MST to parent up   0 recs

Your Take...
Is going to prove my point about being able to twist numbers...

Overall, the numbers don't look good, and they don't look much better taken month by month.  However, if looked at going by dividing the season into 4-game stretches, the numbers look appealing --

Games 1-4 --  -23
Games 5-8 --  -38
Games 9-11 -- +27

Ahh, the assumption must then be that the Broncos are playing better.  And yes, the offense is playing better. But....

by TheSportsGuru on Nov 26, 2007 11:20 AM MST to parent up   0 recs

Not really
You are using a grouping of four without tracking, just like you grouped games by using the calender (a month).  To "track" results you would subtract the oldest game when you add the newest game.  This would be the most accurate way.  That is how we show trends in polling, for example.  It is also a method for measuring advancement or decline in education.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Nov 26, 2007 2:05 PM MST to parent up   0 recs

Depends on what...
you are trending...long term or short term...I am just very careful with that type of tracking becuase it could lead to misleading results...

Say for instance the Broncos get blown out by the Chargers again...That would adversely effect the tracking, thus give the appearance that the team is once again digressing...

There are strides being made, we all know that, I was just pointing out that the team isn't improving by leaps and bounds and is simply playing just well enough, or poorly enough, to lose games.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda has no legs in the NFL, though it is fun to talk about the "ifs"...

by TheSportsGuru on Nov 26, 2007 4:35 PM MST to parent up   0 recs

Right
Of course, if we get blown out again then ANY assesment of the team should take that into account.

The main thing is that we can agree that the team is improving.  And with the dissapointing season so far it seems like a valuable thing to point out so that fans have something to hang on to.  It's also good journalism to point out the negatives, and we have that too (chicken poop ball for one).

I also agree about the leaps and bounds point.  I'll take slow and steady improvement over inconsistent improvement.  I can't be thrilled with the season, but right now I'll feel better if we make gains to give us all hope for a better next season.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Nov 26, 2007 5:50 PM MST to parent up   0 recs

Hanging by a thread is the perfect analogy
The season is not over, but everything needs to bounce the Broncos way from here on out for them to make the playoffs.  It was not the loss itself that was so devastating, but the way the game was lost.  It is gonna make it that much tougher for the players to come back out and focus on Oakland this weekend.  If the players can bounce back (and I think they will) there is still a chance of putting together a decent run at the end of the season if the team can get consistent in all three phases of the game.

Not sure how I feel about blaming Sauerbrun for the blocked punt.  He probably bears some responsibility, but I am thinking there should have been someone else (either the personal protector or the gunner) who needs to make some kind of audible.  If Sauerbrun adjusts and tries to kick it left, it would probably have still been blocked.  And if not, it would have been messy when the ball went left and the entire coverage team was heading right.  I did not hear any post game interviews so I don't know if the details of that play have been discussed at all.

by MattR on Nov 26, 2007 10:31 AM MST to parent up   0 recs

Every coach will tell you that it takes all
three teams to win a game, but for most teams that is really untrue.  On Special Teams all you really want is no mistakes, a FG or two and field position at at least the twenty.  

On occasion somebody makes a big play and you can't avoid that; however, some teams excel at ST and you have to put extra thought into it not just line up and think your guys are better, so they won't have this problem.  

Example is Oakland last week.  They changed the way they ran their coverage just to stop Hester.  Their coach realized what a good ST can do and game planned it and it worked.  There are only 3-5 returners who are always potential game changers, you have to deal with them, you cannot expect the same old stuff you run every week versus every other team to apply.  

All it does is highlight ignorance and/or stubbornness and puts undo pressure on a facet of the game that is so random and unpredictable.

by WCG on Nov 26, 2007 10:50 AM MST   0 recs

Vanderjadgtesque.
Well, at least I have a new least favorite word!  I've long felt that the Forgotten Third (i.e. Special Teams) should be considered equal to their much more publisized counterparts: offense and defense.  Just like line play is too often overlooked, field position colors everything else that happens in a game.  

Twice against the Bears our offense had to go further than 80 yards to score a touchdown.  Twice more good drives stalled mere yards away from the endzone for FG instead of TD, in part because of our starting field position.  Twice Devin Hester single-handedly brought the Bears (and their fans) back into the game with amazing returns for scores.  Add the block and short squib kickoffs we mixed in from time to time and you have a startling 8+ instances in which our deficiency in special teams hurt our chances to win the game and, by any measure, that is far too many.

Another often neglected aspect of football is momentum.  The players-only meeting gave us some and propelled us to a couple of wins that we might not otherwise have come up with.  The Big Mo also works in micro ways, with this game being a clear example.  At no time did Devin Hester give Chicago a lead and yet it seemed as though we were the ones in a hole after every one of his returns.  Our defense, the one that had pitched a beautiful game for most of the match, fell apart late in the 4th and in OT, as though our fate was already decided.  We were flying high on emotion, but the fall can be hard and fast when that's all that's holding you up.  We're plenty talented, but talent is everywhere you look at the NFL level.  We have more gaping holes than most competative teams and it's coming back to haunt us.

We need to take back the Forgotten Third and let our success fuel our momentum/emotion, not the other way around.  Special teams is the key to this, by giving us better field position and putting the other 2/3 of our team in place to succeed.  It starts with coaching, then personel, but above all: pride.  It might not be the glamour thing to do, but it's just as important as everything else.  If we can get that turned around, the season might be salvagable.

by ejruiz on Nov 26, 2007 4:09 PM MST   0 recs

Vanderjadgtesque or Sauerbrunese?
Should we have a poll for the most appropriate of the inappropriateness of allowing kickers to speak?

by Arctic Bronco on Nov 27, 2007 12:07 AM MST   0 recs

The former.
For one, since I coined it I'm kind of biased towards it.  But as stupid (or as chiken poop) as Saurbrun was, Vanderjagdt was the classic.  I'll give him the nod.

We don't need the poll.  Anyone with an IQ higher than a brick (a brick's IQ is four points higher than a kicker) knows that kickers should keep their mouths shut.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Nov 27, 2007 8:20 AM MST to parent up   0 recs

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