My WR review.
by amirebram
on Jan 11, 2008 1:53 PM MST
As was expected by most draft sites, a lot of junior WRs have declared for the 08 draft, so this class is pretty deep. Here is my look at the WRs I have seen play.
I would really like to see what other guys here think about these players.
First Day Prospects:
- Malcolm Kelly (Not worth it): He has soft hands, and he is big and fast. But Kelly isn't strong. He comes down with first contact and doesn't block well. He plays the sidelines too much (maybe a scheme thing). Soft guy. I can't but to think "Big Ashley."
- James Hardy (Not worth it): Another big with good speed. Average blocking. Not as consistent as I want. Worth a 3rd round pick, but the risk is little too high for a 1st round pick for any team (except maybe Indy).
- Limas Sweed (Not worth it): Big but speed is a question mark. Injured in 07. Might be another Jarret or Williams type of WR. However many Texas offensive players do better in NFL. Risky pick on 1st day, but worth a 3rd rounder for most teams.
- Early Doucet (Ok, but not for Broncos): Does everything well, but doesn't have top speed. Safe pick late in the 1st round.
- Mario Manningham (I like him): If he can physically hold up in the NFL he will be great. Not as much "potential" as some of the guys ranked higher, but he has "it." A great pick in the 2nd round; worth a late 1st rounder.
- Adarius Bowman (I want him): Big and fast, strong, good blocker, play-maker. Numbers might be a little inflated, but he was more productive than most guys ranked higher. A steal in the 2nd round. People are calling him "Baby TO" as well.
- Earl Bennett (I really want him): Another guy that has "it." Typical size & speed. He isn't a burner, but definitely fast enough. Has Hawaii type numbers against SEC teams, and he was the only weapon on the team. Catches everything thrown at him. 270 catches, Zero fumbles. Played in pro-style offense so he is NFL ready. A steal in the 2nd round. History/Chemistry with Jay is a plus.
- Devin Thomas: (?) Haven't seen him play, but it seems to me that he didn't spend enough time in school.
- DJ HAll (Not worth it): He is average; not special.
- Jordy Nelson (Love him): A fun guy to watch. Nice size & speed combo. Not a burner, but has great moves. Tough guy, good hands, gets the YAC. Former walk-on Safety. Former QB (threw a few nice TD's this season). Blocking needs work. He is well worth a 4th round pick if we don't take a big WR early.
- Keenan Burton (Not worth it): Limited based on what I saw.
- Devon Bess (OK): Great catching ability. Small guy with great moves & vision--but not a burner. His game might not translate to the NFL.
- Jason Rivers (Like him): ranked last among the Hawaii WRs by most, he is actually the safest and best in my opinion (If you think Young, Linart & Cutler; Rivers is Cutler). Not a lot of flash, but very consistent. Great range. Did well against top notch competition.
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Out of all of them...
When K-State went into Austin and spanked Texas, Nelson was the impact player to lead them to the win. He can do well in the return game, but he needs people to open up seams. The Broncos need lots of athletes that can do that. They haven't had much of that for years and it's because we have players that can't or won't commit to special teams. That is why Denver has a reputation of having crappy ST. They cost us lots of field position and points too.
by mdierk on Jan 11, 2008 2:14 PM MST 0 recs
Good work Amir!
But I will add this little gem. Shanny's press conference (from Guru's great write up) indicates to me STRONGLY that we will get a WR. Shanny makes it clear that as good as Stokely is, he is NOT built to handle every down and is a slot specialist. He also indicates uncertainty about Walker.
A lot hinges on Walker, but I think we will get a WR in this draft.
by hoosierteacher on Jan 11, 2008 2:33 PM MST 0 recs
Also...
In short, we need a Walker type if Walker doesn't return, or we don't have an effective deep threat.
by hoosierteacher on
Jan 11, 2008 2:36 PM MST
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Gonig deep!
Strong receivers can make their own yards too.
Then only strong receivers in this draft are Bowman and Nelson. The other big guys are not strong, thus not worth their size.
Anyhow, Bennett fits Rod Smith type profile. Can go deep with the right play call.
Usually its what the D gives ya.
by amirebram on
Jan 11, 2008 8:10 PM MST
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I agree
Here's what I'm getting at. There is a moment (the POD or "point of decision") when the QB mentaly commits to throwing the ball. At that precise moment the play drawn up by the offense should reach a static (motionless) stat where the offensive players have reached an ideal position on the field. That position should have caused the defense to reach a less than ideal position. On a diagram of the play this is the point where the play hasn't gone on too long or been short circuited.
At that moment, if there is a speedy receiver and the play accounts for him, the hope is that he has either gotten past his coverage (perhaps by having previously run a lot of "sell" routes to lull the DBs into not being ready for the streak), or (more likely) has pulled his covering CB AND at least one safety to account for him (freeing up other eligible receivers).
A fast WR is able to do this best. He may not be able to run past DBs (as you correctly point out), but between his "sells" and the "sells" from the running game, the speed of a deep receiver should pull the attention of least two defenders (a CB and a SAF) on a well written play when a coach has the patience to spring it after several sells.
Of course, the sell can be the streak after streak by the fast receiver. This is what I'm hoping for. When the defense has to account for these sells (by a fast WR), it frees up Marshall and Scheff to do their thing in the medium range of the field.
With the good running game you mentioned, we draw the defense up close. With a fast receiver we draw some of it deep. Now we have the mid-range for Marshall and Scheff, either of whom can use their talents to then pick up the YAC.
by hoosierteacher on
Jan 11, 2008 11:13 PM MST
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I see
Marshall is actually pretty fast you know.
And Martinez ran 4.29 in his workout they say...
by amirebram on
Jan 12, 2008 7:48 PM MST
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Got it.
On Martinez, he has the speed, but I'm not yet sold on him. And Marshall has good speed, but I wouldn't put him down as a streak specialist either.
Here's my main issue. I agree with Shanahan that Stokely is an excellent slot receiver who can be over used. He should only be getting a few passes or he wears down (or gets injured). He is an ace at slot.
So that leaves us with Marshall. If you have a fast guy like Walker with good hands you can play to Marshall's strengths (medium range catches and YACs). If Walker isn't present I don't feel good with Martinez at #2 and Marshall having to play against #1 CBs (even if he is capable). There may not be a solution in the draft (which I now understand to be your point), but it is a concern worth addressing.
We either need to ensure that Walker stays, or we need to find some kind of help. If Walker stays I'm ok with a midround WR with good hands but not blazing speed. But if Walker isn't available we need speed from somewhere or defenses will be able to play safeties closer in (which also hurts the running game).
Any ideas?
by hoosierteacher on
Jan 13, 2008 4:37 PM MST
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Here are the possible players in draft
There is Andre Caldwell, Mr Big-Drop.
Donnie Avery is fast and I read he did a nice job at Huston. He is listed as a 2nd rounder in many places. I am not sure if I would take him in the 2nd round where guys like Manningham, Bennett and Bowman might still be on the board. It would be like picking Ashly Lelie over Rod Smith, just because Lelie was faster (*look at my note below).
Harry Douglas of Louisville is another option. The teams go-to guy, and he is rated as a 3rd rounder. I would go for him, but we don't have a 3rd round pick.
Eddie Royal is another fast guy who is also a returner. I really don't know anything about him, but he is listed as a late 3rd-early 4th pick.
*NOTE: I have seen Manningham, Bennett, Bowman & Jackson play so I know something about them. I have never seen Royal, Douglas or Avery play; I just know what I have read, which isn't much. So I may be biased towards the guys I have seen play--then again how can I recommend a guy I haven't seen play?
by amirebram on
Jan 14, 2008 12:02 PM MST
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Is there anyone you would trade...
by hoosierteacher on
Jan 14, 2008 4:30 PM MST
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This might sound funny, but yes there is.
Then there is the contract. He is a RFA this year, and if we don't give him a long term deal he will be a FA next year. We are either going to let him walk in 09 or pay too much in free agency; might as well deal him in 08.
Put a 3rd round tag on him and see if anyone goes for him. Doubt it, but its worth a try. He might fetch a 4th round pick somewhere, but not a 3rd.
by amirebram on
Jan 14, 2008 5:46 PM MST
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Your reasoning is sound
I think we need depth on the o-line, and it takes 2 to 3 years to get development. Meyers has already started, and done pretty well (in my opinion) for a guy who has had to play multiple positions. He could easily play at guard instead of center, but can hold his own at center too.
It is looking more and more like Hamilton will return. Given his concussion, I think this is a bad idea. One bad hit and he is out again (or worse).
I would be willing to resign Meyers after next year to keep up our depth (considering that Nalen and Hamilton will probably be gone soon). Even with Meyers resigned we will still need more linemen from the draft, and they will need time to develop. Without Meyers the problem complicates.
All of that said, it is a matter of opinion. I think your reasoning is sound too. It just comes down to which way management could lean.
For me, as much as I love the CB position, I would trade either Foxworth or Paymah. We have excellence and depth already at the CB position, and will need to start staggering our upcoming CBs soon. (As discussed in another thread, Bailey and Bly could leave at about the same time, and that leaves Foxworth and Paymah doing the same only a few years later. It will be hard to make a giant overhaul at that time).
by hoosierteacher on
Jan 15, 2008 1:18 AM MST
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WR?
However, since we need a speed WR there is a very high bust factor. Guys who can run past everyone in college, with a few exceptions, can't do that in the NFL. These guys also unfortunately usually have awful hands. My prime example would be Lelie, since we took him in the first round he still could burn DBs, but he couldn't catch/was afraid to go over the middle. A WR like this is not worth spending a high round draft choice on.
Another thing to consider is these speed WRs are often lighter/smaller guys. With the importance of blocking from every position on the offense on this team that can't really go over looked.
I think our best bet would be Bernard Berrian. He doesn't have the best hands, but he is fast, and would come pretty cheap, and save our draft picks. If not Berrian, I would be willing to spend a low round draft pick on the WR from Hawaii and develop him into a better blocker. He seems to has the size, the only reason he went so late is cause he played in the WAC.
by calvinandhobbes on Jan 12, 2008 11:03 AM MST 0 recs
I agree
by hoosierteacher on
Jan 12, 2008 1:16 PM MST
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I know what you say,
by amirebram on
Jan 12, 2008 7:50 PM MST
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