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Draft Board

There are a lot of people (myself included) who look at the Draft for what we can trade for/ get out of the draft. Either picks or people, this happens quite a bit come draft day. I saw a few questions here and there about what are salaries for 12th overall picks or what's the value of our Draft choices. Matt R provided me with this chart. It was hard to read at first so I re-did a little of it. I hope it helps.

Star-divide

As you can see from the chart, our # 12 pick has a value of 1200 points. In a trade Denver would have to get draft picks equal or close to that number to have in considered a good trade (i.e. #30 @ 620 #62 @ 284 and #94 @ 124 = 1028 pts). Teams can also add players to the mix which is a little more of a gamble for a team.

Examples:

*    Eli Manning was #1 Pick 8 years ago and has a Super Bowl Ring so Manning is worth probably 1800-2200 points.
*    Javon Walker who was a #20 Pick 8 years ago and he has had surgery after surgery and more bad seasons as he has progressed than good ones so his Draft day trade value would be around 350-600 points.
     After a team looks at how many "points" a player or draft pick is worth, they then add salaries. With current players this is easier because you know what their salary already is. The choice then becomes, do you pay play "X" 5 million dollars a year and then sign draft pick "Y" for 800k a year and hope player "X" has enough impact on your team that the trade seems worth it. Or do you stay with Player "Z" (original Draft Slot) in hopes of grooming the guy into your franchise player at his position.
With Draft Picks its a question of Do I pay players "A" and "B" 1.25 million a year and hoe they bond with the team and develop into the players we want or do I pay player "C" 2.5 million a year because he is already a well developed player.

After looking at projections these are my choices for Denver.

#12 Keith Rivers LB, USC
We really need help everywhere on defense. One of the main reasons we was 30th against the run and 28th in points allowed was its pedestrian line backing corps. D.J. Williams was playing out of position all year, while the lackluster Ian Gold wasn't making any plays at the weak side slot. Gold has been released, opening up an even greater void at his former position. The Broncos can mend it together by selecting Keith Rivers, assuming the Saints and Bengals both pass on him. If Rivers isn't here, Denver could go after Ryan Clady (OT Boise St.) or Kenny Philips (FS Miami)

# 42 Kentwan Balmer DT, North Carolina
We were 30th against the run last year and desperately needs to acquire some talent at defensive tackle. Kentwan Balmer is yet another first-round talent to fall into the second round because of how deep this draft class is. I don't think hear us complaining though. We could also go after Trevor Laws (DT Notre Dame) who has really improved his draft stock in the postseason with a good Senior Bowl showing and putting up 35 reps on the bench press. Sam Baker (OT USC) would also be a good choice here

#104 Adam Krause OG, Michigan
    Here is a great player who will fit our ZB and come in the 4th round. He can play Guard or Center but is more effective for us at Guard. He is almost NFL ready. The other option here is trade 104 and 115 (maybe 209 as well) and up to pick number 45 and grab Sam Baker (OT USC) if we haven't drafted him already or left the board.

#115 Adrian Arrington WR, Michigan
    Arrington is another Marshall type of player. He is not a top prospect but possesses the size to be a running team's WR. He can stretch a defense long enough to create a gap in the middle for a runner to disturb.

#140 Mike Hart RB, Michigan
    Honestly I was shocked to see his name so low on so many databases. If hart stays here (projected Round 4-5) I say we snag him with this pick or even find him in the 4th round at 104 or 115. He is the type of runner we are looking for and would be a 1500 yard guy easily in Denver's system

#202 Marcus Coleman OC, Wisconsin
    This is a move more for Depth than anything else. He is a great player and while the badgers struggled he did his best to ensure that The QB was covered and the runner could get to the second level. We could also trade this pick away with another for one further up in the draft. This one could be used for low key D Line or O Line players as well as Safeties and Corners.

#209 Todd Blythe WR, Iowa State
    Blythe like Arrington is ideal for a running team which Michigan, Iowa St. and USC are. I think that he would be an excellent 7th rounder and dropping so far would give him so much more to prove to people who over looked him before this.

Now Denver Has the #12, #42, #104, and #115. What do you think we should do?  Should we trade 12 and 42 for 6?  104 and 115 for 88?  42 and 104 for 34? What are you thoughts? Feedback and don't forget to take the poll at the bottom!

Poll
What Should We Do In The Draft
Trade Picks for Picks
9 votes
Trade Players and Picks for Picks
1 votes
Trade future Picks for Picks
0 votes
Kep Our Picks
5 votes
Trade Players for Picks
0 votes

15 votes | Poll has closed

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

Comment 17 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Here is my thought.
I say we trade down to #15, pick up a third rounder:

#15 - Jonathan Stewart(Anyone think he will fall to #15???  Or are we better off staying pat at #12 and getting him there?)

I don't know College Football really well, which is why I rely on you all to tell me who is good.  I try here and there to look into guys coming into the NFL...but alas I don't care about college football. :)  That said:

#42 - DT
#68 - WR
#104 - S
#115 - DT
#140 - OG
#202 - K
#209 - C

2007=1995 all over again: http://www.milehighreport.com/story/2007/10/1/202724/157

by Tim Lynch on Mar 6, 2008 1:28 PM MST reply actions  

Without getting into which players go where
I would be happy with trading our #12 for a high second rounder this year and a first rounder next year.  That would be tempting for any team just ahead us that felt like they were close to getting over the hump.

With the two early second round picks, I would target DT and WR (maybe Balmer and Bennet?).  If we don't sign Boss, I would look for LB starting in the fourth round, otherwise 4th round I would be looking for OT.  After that I keep my eyes open for athletic, and strong o-linemen, fast safeties, one-cut runners, and run-stopping ends and tackles.  I have no problem pairing the late picks with earlier picks to gain a spot or two.

To Zappa:  Kicker???  Punter, maybe.  I'm starting to wonder about you...  Regarding Mendenhall or Stewart:  the only problem I have with Denver looking for a franchise back in the early rounds is that a RB is a perishaable commodity in the NFL.  Even if we took Stewart, he would still end up platooning early in his career, and his career would only be 7 years at best anyways.  Since you are combining backs anyways, it makes more sense to get specific backs for specific jobs.  Henry for 70% of the carries, young/hall for 20% on the changeup, everybody else as needed for the remaining 10%.  I can see an argument for replacing Henry, but a bruising one cut runner shouldn't warrant first round attention.  Sorry bud, its up to you to keep the 1st round RB torch alight!

I wish my sig was as cool as mdierks!

by Jeremy Bolander on Mar 6, 2008 2:17 PM MST reply actions  

Yes Kicker...In Elam we trust? Nope!
btw, I disagree that the shelf life of a Running Back is less than 7 years.  Some RB don't last long, others are productive well into their thirties (ala Barry Sanders).  So let's not discount truth based on some rather wild assumptions.

I'd take a kicker or a punter...all I know is that I will be wary every time we line up for a critical game-winning or tying kick without Elam.  And what's wrong with taking a kicker in the 7th round anyhow?!  lol

2007=1995 all over again: http://www.milehighreport.com/story/2007/10/1/202724/157

by Tim Lynch on Mar 6, 2008 2:33 PM MST up reply actions  

Lets hope the...
2008 Broncos do something the 2007 version didn't.  Score so many touchdowns that a clutch kick is rare.
fader nation is a conquered nation

by mdierk on Mar 6, 2008 2:36 PM MST up reply actions  

Trades.
I've come up with two reasonable and realistic potential trades involving our first round pick.

1)  
Dallas gets #12 (1200), #43 (470) and #116 (62) [1732 total]
Denver gets #22 (780), #28 (660) and #62 (284) (1724)

2)  
San Francisco gets #12 (1200) [1200 total]
Denver gets #29 (640), #40 (500) and #135 (38.5) [1178.5 total]

I'm also thinking about yet another trade down beyond either of those.  Atlanta and Miami each have a nice pair of second round picks to offer in exchange for our downgraded first rounder and change.  I won't get into those details, but it's plausible.  Thoughts?

by ejruiz on Mar 6, 2008 2:58 PM MST reply actions  

I like both of those scenarios.
I would be real happy to see either one.  Nice thinking!
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Mar 6, 2008 6:53 PM MST up reply actions  

Those are both excellent trades
The types of players we need DT, S, WR, LB, OL) should be readily available at those areas of the draft.  This year seems like a good time to stock up on young players, as long as the roster doesn't get too cluttered with retreads we should be able to get 4-6 keepers from this draft.

by Arctic Bronco on Mar 8, 2008 5:13 PM MST up reply actions  

My Rough Mock.
No trades, because that speculates too much.  Here we go:

#12 - Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Notes: He's an athletic tackle that needs to get alittle more intense.  He may be a bit of a reach, but he fills a need and should be a good one.
#43 -  Curtis Lofton, ILB, Oklahoma
Notes: Think DeMeco Ryans.  I hate to move D.J. again, but it's the best way to solidify that layer of our defense.  Add to them recent signee Boss Bailey and we have an interesting, new look LB corps.  
#105 - Craig Steltz, SS, LSU
Notes: Here's a guy who makes plays.  He's a football player that performs beyond his measurables.  A tough-as-nails leader on an elite unit in college.
#116 - Frank Okam, DT, Texas
Notes: Maybe it's a risk to pair Marcus Thomas with another "first round talent" that falls this far, but he's got all the tools to be a great compliment for him.
#132 - Dexter Jackson, KR/WR, Appalachian State
Notes: The league is quickly learning the benefits of a dynamic returner and this may well be the next great one.  He's raw as a receiver and his physique may limit him there, but he could be a servicable #3/4.
#143 - Quentin Demps, FS, UTEP
Notes: Speaking of safeties that always seem to surprise people with their productivity, here's one that could blossom into a good starter before long.
#203 - Andre Fluellen, DT, FSU
Notes: At this point in the draft, I'm not sure about these lesser prospects.  This kid is a likely bust, but his potential is worth a gamble at this point.

Thoughts?

by ejruiz on Mar 6, 2008 3:32 PM MST reply actions  

I am a big Dexter Jackson fan,
but who is Chris Williams?!
2007=1995 all over again: http://www.milehighreport.com/story/2007/10/1/202724/157

by Tim Lynch on Mar 6, 2008 4:50 PM MST reply actions  

Williams
He's an OT that played with Cutler.  The downside is he didn't play in ZB system.  However, he has the quick feet and the agility to fit the system nicely.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Mar 6, 2008 6:52 PM MST up reply actions  

Yes...
But his year with Cutler wasn't all that good. He was a Sophmore when Cutler was a Senior... He became much better as a Junior and Senior (after Cutler was gone).
Orange County is hot. Really! Haven't you seen the weather report?

by amirebram on Mar 6, 2008 7:45 PM MST up reply actions  

I agree
I would also add that I think it is immaterial that they played together.  QBs and WRs might have a special bond, but individual OLs and QBs not so much so.  We agree.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by Steve Nichols on Mar 6, 2008 9:03 PM MST up reply actions  

True. I agree.
I was just trying to get the facts straight for the less enthusiastic fans. If you recall, when Cutler came out of school we all talked about how he could handle the pressure since at Vandy he was getting chased all over the field... Now some people are saying that they had a Elite LT at Vandy, while he really didn't. I just wanted to cleanup the misconception.
Orange County is hot. Really! Haven't you seen the weather report?

by amirebram on Mar 7, 2008 3:29 PM MST up reply actions  

Denver has one more pick
They have Oakland's fifth rounder as part of the Gerard Warren trade.  It is the fourth pick of the round, 130th overall.

by MattR on Mar 6, 2008 9:12 PM MST reply actions  

Too hard to speculate.
Just wait and watch.
"Another Scapegoat... First it was Greg Robinson's fault. Then Ray Rhodes. Then Larry Coyer. Now Jim Bates... Everybody but Shanahan... -Xandervan 1/8/08

by broncodude793 on Mar 7, 2008 8:43 AM MST reply actions  

So #130 could go like this
Caleb Campbell SS Army- I'm not usually big on Military School guys (being a military guy myself) but this kid has some good moves. Hes big and fairly fast for his size. He's not Champ Bailey/ Darrent Williams or Any of the other blazingly fast DB's. But Campbell is fast on the rebound or from the back  (FS).

OR

 Quintin Demps FS UTEP- Faster option than Campbell. It doesn't matter that he played in Conference USA; he still managed to accumulate seven interceptions and two forced fumbles in 2006. He is also the type we are looking for. Bruiser with speed!

Davis to the Hall! "A leader, once convinced that a particular course of action is the right one, must be undaunted when the going gets tough." Ronald Reagan

by Jon Tollerud on Mar 7, 2008 9:02 AM MST reply actions  

Mike Hart
The reason Hart is so low on the draft boards, I believe, is because of his history of injuries and that he is pretty high mileage, think Cedric Benson. But, he is a decent runner and definitely a leader. He was THE main factor as far as rallying his team and turning around Michigan's unbelievably poor start this past year. He really called his team higher both vocally and with his own play, even through injury. Quality guy, just may not last long, even by RB standards.
Or so I'm told.

by MN Bronco on Mar 7, 2008 10:06 AM MST reply actions  

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