With the #17 Pick in the MHR Community Mock Draft...

by ejruiz on Apr 8, 2008 6:02 PM MDT

Hello, everyone! I've been asked by TSG to post a Diary with my pick for the Denver Broncos in our community's Mock Draft and the rationale behind it. And so, without further ado, it is my honor to present to you (below the fold) our newest Bronco!

With the 17th pick in the MHR Mock Draft, the Denver Broncos select:

Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt

Though this is not a flashy pick and it may well be profoundly unpopular with a considerable portion of our fan base, it is simply the right thing to do for our team at this time. I was initially prepared to select OT Ryan Clady of Boise State at #12 before trading down with Minnesota; the ability to chose Chris Williams at #17 while regaining our original third round pick instead is a real benefit. It may be unlike the Broncos to make this kind of investment in this position, but we have rarely been faced with this level of need there before. The sudden retirement of LT Matt Lepsis created a void and the more recent trade of Chris Myers significantly depleted our depth throughout the line as a whole. Shanahan does not seem to think that Ryan Harris - last year's third round pick - is ready to start in the NFL and would instead start Chris Kuper, a natural guard, at LT. I am not at all comfortable with that solution. It is often said that Denver has a knack for discovering starters along the O-line in the later rounds of the draft, but I simply do not see a single one that could compete for the starting LT spot immediately and that is the nature of our need. We must build around Jay Cutler to ensure our future, as well as our short term success. Though this is by no means a sure thing, I think it is the safe pick and one that will help our team significantly. In the best case scenario, he would be out there at LT for us right out of the gate after earning the job in training camp and preseason. The absolute worst case scenario would have him as depth at tackle and guard, providing immediate and necessary insurance in the face of injury; something that is still significant.

I seriously considered RB Jonathan Stewart of Oregon with this pick. I truly believe that we can afford to gamble on him because of our built-in depth at his position. He could be worth the selection with limited carries and return opportunities alone. With Travis Henry and Selvin Young both questionable for different reasons, we could use a potential All-Pro feature back. However, I simply could not overlook our true needs when there were reasonable means by which to address them. As for the top WR prospects remaining, they all seemed less safe than the actual pick I made and the position seems much deeper than any of our other needs. I will look to address our numerous other needs as this goes on and, with the draft proceeding as it has, I believe that to be a reasonable assumption. I hope the fans can embrace this selection and come to appreciate it once it is put in the context of our entire haul from this draft.

P.S.: The other half of that awesome chest-bump in the image selected is also a potential Bronco: Vanderbilt WR Earl Bennett.

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Comments

Good Call

I think this is a good pick. I like your justification. The trade was also a good move as it gives us room to get "value" players at other needed positions i.e. DT. Following r8rh8tr's excellent diary entry this morning, I can't wait for the draft and for training camp.

I just want to see Rivers flat on his cocky ass watching #24 head for the end zone.

by firstfan on Apr 8, 2008 6:34 PM MDT 0 recs

I like it too

What I especially like is being able to recoup the third rounder and still get an LT prospect with amazing potential. Sure, it's not sexy, but foundations rarely are.
I also agree with fistfan; I hope that Slowik is spending long LONG hours figuring out ways to make Marmalard's two games against Denver next year a living hell.

"The angel is no more than the shark well-governed." -Herman Melville

by jadunn on Apr 8, 2008 7:09 PM MDT 0 recs

I Like

I too agree with this and "hope" that this is a real pick for the Broncos. We don't have a lot of money to spend at the moment and jumping down and acquiring an extra pick is a good move. I've been hearing rumors that we may take Williams and Bennet...both from Vandi which JC has experience with. I like this call!

by nheimler on Apr 8, 2008 8:22 PM MDT 0 recs

Additional Thoughts.

You have to admit, even if you don't like the picK, that's one awesome pic! As for Williams, he's an athletic big man with top notch intangibles. As for weaknesses, he'll get stronger in the pros, but we'll have to get him to play with a meaner streak. He'll protect Jay's blindside very well for year's to come and be the next in a long line of underappreciated Broncos linemen.

by ejruiz on Apr 8, 2008 8:26 PM MDT 0 recs

Excellent

Trading down and selecting Williams would be nothing short of a coup.

-kmonty
-BroncoTalk.net

by kmonty on Apr 8, 2008 8:50 PM MDT 0 recs

Great pick

I like Williams better than Clady anyway, and getting him plus an extra pick is gravy. I notice that Williams scored 32 on the Wonderlic and Clady only 13. Does the Wonderlic really measure intelligence? Football intelligence? Is Williams really that smart and Clady that dumb? Does it matter? But as a tie-breaker it works for me.

by spock on Apr 8, 2008 9:54 PM MDT 0 recs

Wonderlic Test.

From the Fountaine of Knowledge, Wikipedia:

"The Wonderlic Personnel Test is an intelligence test primarily known for being administered to prospective employees for the purposes of recruitment, placement, development and retention. The Wonderlic is a twelve-minute, fifty-question exam to assess aptitude for learning a job and adapting to solve problems for employees in a wide range of occupations. The score is calculated as the number of correct answers given in the allotted time. A score of 20 is intended to indicate average intelligence (corresponding to an intelligence quotient of 100; a rough conversion is accomplished via the following formula: IQ = 2WPT + 60)"

Some average scores are:

Chemist - 31
Programmer - 29
Journalist - 26
Offensive tackle - 26
Center - 25
Sales - 24
Quarterback - 24
Offensive guard - 23
Bank teller - 22
Tight end - 22
Clerical worker - 21
Safety - 19
Linebacker - 19
Cornerback - 18
Security guard - 17
Wide receiver - 17
Fullback - 17
Halfback - 16
Warehouse - 15

Personally, I don't believe that you can test for intelligence. I test extremely well and I just don't think I'm that smart!

by ejruiz on Apr 8, 2008 10:30 PM MDT up 0 recs

Specific Scores.

Clady's 13 puts him significantly below average (equivalent IQ would be 86). Williams, on the other hand, posted a very impressive 32 (equivalent IQ would be 124). You can consider this for what it's worth: no knock on BSU, but Vandy has a certain reputation.

by ejruiz on Apr 9, 2008 1:18 AM MDT up 0 recs

works for me

although i think dt is our most pressing need, ot is a close second. i am not at all comfortable with the entire o-line picture right now, even with nalen and hamilton. there is not a sure thing at any starting position, so i have no problem with this at all. the fact we got a 3rd-rounder back and one of the best tackles in the draft is great stuff. dt can wait a round or 2, there seems to be no value there from what i'm reading. very nice job

by davecheffy on Apr 8, 2008 10:20 PM MDT 0 recs

That would be my Dream Come True!

If we could get Williams at #17, Sims 42, and Bennett late 2nd (by trading up from the 3rd from Minnisota)

Orange County is hot. Really! Haven't you seen the weather report?

by amirebram on Apr 8, 2008 10:38 PM MDT 0 recs

I agree

I am a sophomore at Vandy (I grew up in Dillon, CO) and love this pick. Williams has been one of our core performers, he has good size and can match up well. He has some good experience at the position as well. Although Vandy isn't creme de le SEC, we do get some tough competition, so I think Williams would be able to come in and contribute productively right away.

by BroncoAtVandy on Apr 8, 2008 10:46 PM MDT 0 recs

Good trade, good building block for the future

But I am concerned to see the braces on both knees, does he have a history of knee injuries? I wish that a run stopper could be the first pick, but I agree that a massive reach would have been the only way to get a reliable DT or LB at #17.

by Arctic Bronco on Apr 9, 2008 12:32 AM MDT 0 recs

To My Knowledge...

He's never missed game due to injury. I think a lot of players in his position are now using braces as a precaution. They in no way hinder his abilities. No worries there, man, but that was a good catch.

by ejruiz on Apr 9, 2008 1:15 AM MDT up 0 recs

It looks like I'm going against the grain here

but this pick doesn't look so good if Williams doesn't start this year, or next.

Not considering injury, which isn't fair to the incumbents, Shanahan seems to be sold on our current starters on oline, with Harris figuring in as a backup, at least initially. While I feel that Pears needs to be challenged at RT, a fifth rounder could do that as well as a first rounder, in Denver's complicated scheme, and Williams backing up Pears isn't going to help us score in the red zone or control the clock...

That said, I also selected Williams in the Chiefs mock draft at arrowhead pride, though I was selecting at #12, and as a prospect for the Broncos, I really like the kid. And for all the talk of needing to develop a mean streak, I wouldn't hold it against him, I'm sure its just fine, and plenty mean.

It just isn't the right time for a first round OT. And it is too soon to give up on 2008 already.

I wish my sig was as cool as mdierks!

by styg50 on Apr 9, 2008 2:11 AM MDT 0 recs

Points of DIsagreement.

I appreciate that you have a different perspective on this draft and I look forward to your responses to any and all of my points. I respect your opinion very much, on this topic and all others, otherwise I'd just leave your decent alone! Let's get to the beef!

Drafting an OT in the first round, whether he starts from Day 1 or not, does not mean that we'd be giving up on 2008.
LT is a need for the Broncos right now and, if it is not address aggresively, it will cost us wins in 2008 and beyond.
Barring Sedrick Ellis (via trade up above #9 or due to a miraculous turn of events that has him fall to us at #12) there is no first round pick at reasonable value that the Broncos could make that would improve our chances in 2008 moreso than an OT who has a chance to start. No RB would be that significant of an improvement over our current 1-2 punch nor would he have the opportunity to prove so because of their continued presence. The WR all scare me and I doubt they'd be able to unseat Colbert at our #2 spot.
Chris Williams could well win a starting spot on the offensive line right out of the gate, which is reflected by the vey fact that he could be selected at this point in the draft.
Considering the number of significant injuries we've suffered up front in recent seasons, quality depth up front is not a luxury but rather a necessity.
Ryan Harris and, to a lesser degree Erik Pears, are far from sure-fire long-term solutions at the tackle spots and Kuper will be called back inside to guard sooner rather than later.
Speaking of Chris Kuper, playing him at LT is an experiment that is at least as dangerous as starting Chris Williams there as a rookie. In my honest opinion, the very idea is a smokescreen and I sincerely doubt that he will be there even if we don't take an OT this early.
I mentioned toward the end of my original explanation tht this pick would be viewed differently in the context of our daft as whole. I believe we will be able to acquire a DT or two to plug into that rotation, as well as a WR that could either challenge Colbert at #2 or add a different element toour passing game. I also hope that we invest heavily in our special teams. All of these moves, while not flashy or independently impactful, would help us win in 2008 and beyond.
Who is this generic late round pick that would make more sense than a qualified first rounder like Chris Williams? I understand the track record and the built in advantage t our scheme, but I just don't see the point in gambling on someting that you can address so well early on.

by ejruiz on Apr 9, 2008 3:14 AM MDT up 0 recs

The debate is on!

With full disclosure that I am going to have to try real hard not to be a pushover here :)

Drafting an OT in the first round, in and of itself is a fantastic choice that does not mean we are giving up on 2008. But if we also consider who we could have taken, it becomes questionable. In my opinion we have to do only three things next year to have this team back to it old, playoff making self in the short term: score in the red zone, stop the run, improve on ST. I can't rank any one aspect above the others, but I believe I have listed them in an order that reflects the difficulty of the task, with improving our red zone offense being the easiest, and improving our STs to be the hardest. This point will be continued as we address the rest of the points.
I can't agree that LT is a need, but I can agree that it is a question mark. There is only so much room to devote to insurance, and our current offensive line is one of our strongest areas, IMO. I don't see any reason why we should be 'aggressive' about LT, or any other Oline position, at this point. We have two starters next year vying for spots at tackle, along with a first day draft pick from last year. We have competition, youth and depth at this point, so it seems to me that it should be business as usual for the front office.
I understand your outlook for the prospects that we could take in lieu of Williams. But I respectfully disagree. Leaving Ellis out of the equation (and some would argue he wouldn't be worth taking unless he fell all the way to #12, and I can see their point) I believe Guru could make a very strong case for Rashard Mendenhall, and in the event of a trade down, for Johnathon Stewart. We do have a 1-2 punch, but it is a punch that has left Shanahan dissatisfied practically from day 1. At WR, I think that when it comes right down to it, the teams taht are looking at tape don't have the same qualms about the top guys that we do. I have heard numerous reports that Kelly and Thomas top boards around the league, and Denver could get either one of them. There are several WRs that would be options to upgrade BOTH our ST and WR corp, and that has far more value than Oline depth and competition. In the redzone we suffered all year without a goal line runner, so Guru's case for a RB may be the most powerful you will hear.
I absolutely agree that Williams could win either spot on the end of the line. The problem is, this is still a depth move, because between Pears, Harris and Kuper we already have at least two starters.
Depth is always a luxury. I should point out that I harbor no argument from injury. I really don't think it is a valid way of approaching a lineup. And as far as luxuries and necessities go, Denver is STILL paying for its 5 year draft drought, which Guru is quick to point out. You have to earn the right to stock a team with depth, as the Colts and Polian are doing now. Denver is still working on getting its stripes in this area, and has been forced to to take the last refuge of a reasonable team in this regards: sign cheap, unheralded free agents. The only thing worse is what the raiders are doing...
I agree with this point 100%. We are going to learn a lot about the future oline of this team in 2008. And I assume you meant that Kuper is a long term solution at G? I would agree with that as well.
I also agree 100% that the 'Kuper Ploy' reeks of smokescreen. That being said, I know Arctic Bronco will alwyas be one to acknowledge that in Denver "You earn your playing time." Kuper is an obvious promotion, when you think about it, and the smokescreen involves Shanahan's estimation of Harris, more than Kuper. I fully expect Harris to be able to win this job.
Absolutely, and I await with eagerness to see how the rest of your Broncos draft turns out. I will say that if this was how Draft day was going, I would be nervous, but happy overall, in that we got back into the third round.
You got me here. I could throw some names out, and even some CFAs, but that really wouldn't make much of a point. What I should have said was that Pears was as likely to be pushed by Kuper or Harris, but alas, I got carried away. But this is a good place to point out that in one of the deepest oline drafts in years, denver is in a position to leverage its already stellar track record with 3rd-CFA olineman into near legend status. Figure that each olineman taken could very well have gone a round or two earlier in other years...

I wish my sig was as cool as mdierks!

by styg50 on Apr 9, 2008 2:14 PM MDT up 0 recs

Mind if I play through?

I see both sides of this issue, and find a lot to agree with both ways. Here are my favorite arguments for both sides.

For Styg:

I agree that OT can be addressed later in the draft without much difference in talent (it's all about the feet of the lineman and putting him in our scheme). I also agree (with hope) that Harris wins the starting tackle spot, since I prefer Kuper at guard.

For Ejru:

Perhaps the strongest argument is that Styg took the same player at the Arrowhead draft, while Ejru was able to take the same player and pick-up an extra pick in the third round. In fairness to Styg though, trades may have been discouraged at Arrowhead.

I call the debate a draw. I think Ejru played the cards he was dealt very well, and applaud his choice. Still, I would rather that we trade down further and get perhaps another pick (and save the line for later in the draft). In a parallel universe where Ejru is the Broncos' real manager, his pick will help Denver and I'll be happy on draft day just knowing we got the extra pick.

"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" Defoe

by hoosierteacher on Apr 9, 2008 4:13 PM MDT up 0 recs

Diry, Little Secret.

I was THIS close to drafting Jonathan Stewart. In fact, I had the write-up all done and the cursor over the Send button in the e-mail. Back when TSG was about to make his selection in the SB Nation Mock Draft and he had his heart set on a non-O-lineman, I strongly advocated on behalf of Stewart as the pick. That said, I still think Williams is te right pick. If we take him, I think he has a fair chance to start and that would have a significant positive impact in 2008.

by ejruiz on Apr 9, 2008 5:47 PM MDT up 0 recs

Blogging on MHR is like

getting playing time for the Denver Broncos. Everyone "has to earn their blogging time." Fortunately, everyone around here is always willing to pay the price of doing independent research and responding politely and professionally to nonconcurring responses.

A lot of the front page posts, especially the ones with diagrams and photos are better pieces of work than seen with the mainstream media. Maybe Guru is the Shanahan of SB, if so I don't want to get hired by Guru to be the MHR defensive coordinator :(

Not sure if the above has much to do with taking Williams at #17, but I just want to say that I really enjoy the this debate and the other discussions and continue to learn from them.

by Arctic Bronco on Apr 9, 2008 10:44 PM MDT up 0 recs

Ha!

HoosierTeacher is already Guru's resident defensive coordinator! HT's already in the hot seat...look out! Only in Denver would a defensive coordinator be in the hot seat when the Broncos(MHR) are winning! lol

I think Guru might be a smidge smarter than Shanny...at least when it comes to our own draft needs. Although Shanny is starting to get better...05-07 have been solid.(so far)

Zapaprulez's MHR Homepage

by Zappa on Apr 11, 2008 2:30 PM MDT up 0 recs

Great job EJ.

Even though Williams is not my favourite, i think it's fantastic mangement to get Williams + 3rd. rounder out of #12!

From Denmark, so i excuse my self for un-knowing-ness...

by Claaaaas on Apr 9, 2008 2:23 AM MDT 0 recs

What contraption is on both his legs??

They look like elaborate knee braces...

Disillusioned Rants & MHR Homepage

by Zappa on Apr 9, 2008 4:38 AM MDT 0 recs

that is exactly what they are.....

I had a friend that tore his ACL many years ago and he wore the same brace. If you look at some college teams, most if not all of the OL wear these braces. They help protect their knees from being hit from the side and reduce the risk of tearing ligaments. The detriment is it does inhibit thier speed and if there is a turnover, they can't give much chase if someone is running in the open field.

fader nation is a conquered nation

by mdierk on Apr 9, 2008 10:18 AM MDT up 0 recs

Agree to Disagree

I think everyone is to hung up on the fact that this kid is from Vandy and Cutler played there. You can through that chemistry stuff out the window. This is the NFL, college has nothing to do with anything now. Is Williams that much better than Harris or Kuper? I doubt it. Remember a guy named George Foster, that worked out well.

by ZDonkeys1985 on Apr 9, 2008 9:36 AM MDT 0 recs

Here's a SI mock draft From Don Banks

12 G Branden Albert Virginia Jr. 6-7 317

With Matt Lepsis retired, the Broncos need help at offensive tackle. Jake Long and Clady are gone, but NFL scouts love Albert and believe the ex-Cavalier can handle the transition to tackle as a pro. Vanderbilt's Chris Williams and Pitt's Jeff Otah are other possibilities at tackle, and don't discount the chance Denver takes a receiver like Kelly in the wake of Brandon Marshall's serious arm injury.

I've come to only one conculsion on Mocks...they are nothing but a crap shoot.

fader nation is a conquered nation

by mdierk on Apr 9, 2008 11:21 AM MDT 0 recs

I have noticed

a lot of mock drafts show biased for the team of the person picking. I like the Mocking the draft draft picks and MHR has done a decent job of picking for each team. I guess it depends on how indepth someone wants to research a team. If you just look at the broncos roster, Matt Lepsis' retirement, B-Marsh's injury scream out to pick someone in these positions. It takes a little more research to do a mock properly, research I am glad to say it looks like the MHR community has done for our draft.

Davis to the Hall! "A leader, once convinced that a particular course of action is the right one, must be undaunted when the going gets tough." Ronald Reagan

by Jon Tollerud on Apr 9, 2008 12:20 PM MDT up 0 recs