Editor's Note:  Reminder for the Stampede Blue Prediction Contest, Week 1.  Get your picks in before Thursday Night at 7:00 ET.

I'm going to attempt to give you a few nuggets each week, trying to help you make those tough decisions on who to play, and who to sit.  I'll also give a review each week, and keep a running tab on how I did each week. 

Here goes for Week 1:

Sleepers:

• Jeff Garcia vs. NO:  The Saints were the 3rd worst team against QBs last season, in terms of fantasy points.  Garcia only played against the Saints once last season, and threw for 250 and 2 TDs (15.2 Y/A as well!).
• Bryant Johnson vs. ARI:  My only concern with this pick is counting on JT O'Sullivan, but I think it will work out greatly.  Johnson has played his entire career in Arizona until this season, being overshadowed by both Boldin and Fitzgerald.  He's been nursing an ankle injury, but seemed fine last week, playing against SD.  Also, with the addition of Mike Martz at OC, they will be throwing the ball alot against the 2nd worst team against WR last season.
• Heath Miller vs. HOU: The Texans were the worst team against TE last season, and Miller looks to have a big week against the Texans.

Busts:

• Jay Cutler vs. OAK: Oakland's defense is very good against the pass (5th best in FF last season), and awful against the run (2nd worst in FF last season).  I also think Denver is going to win this game handily, so there shouldn't be much passing going on in the 4th quarter, making Cutler not a good play this week.  He also struggled mightily last season in Oakland.  Look somewhere else for this week.
• Ryan Grant vs. MIN: Minnesota has an improved defense, from the 2nd best defense against RB last season, adding Jared Allen.  Also, I'm guessing they are going to want Aaron Rodgers to beat them throwing the ball.  They'll load up the box, and force the Packers to throw, which is bad news for Grant.
• Marques Colston vs. TB:  My bold prediction of the week.  Each of the past 2 seasons, at home against TB, Colston has been held under 40 yards receiving, with 0 TDs.  Tampa was #1 against WR last season as well.  Look for a sub-par game from Colston.

It was only a mere 19 months ago that the Colts thumped the Bears in the Super Bowl, a year in which the Bears were clearly led by a top-flight defense.  They even won a few games, even when Rex Grossman tried his damnedest to lose it for the Bears.  Brian Urlacher was a feared MLB, and Tommie Harris was one of the best DT in the NFL. 

In 2006, the Bears finished 3rd in Points Allowed, and 5th in Yards/Game.  Obviously an elite defense, and that was without Harris and Mike Brown for the majority of the season.  Their Preseason Rankings, while mostly irrelevant, had them at 20th in Yards/Game and 10th in Points Allowed. These are middle of the road, but again, are mostly irrelevant, since there are lots of plays run by players who'll never see an NFL game that counts. 

In 2007, the Bears finished 16th in Points Allowed, and 28th in Yards Allowed.  Again, they had a few injuries (Brown, again, Vasher the big ones), but still no where close to being an elite unit.  They gave up 123 rush yards/game, which was 24th in the league.  As a point of reference, in the Preseason they finished 3rd in Yards Allowed, but 28th in Points Allowed.  That is a wide difference, but again, in the Preseason, take it with a grain of salt.

That brings us to the 2008 Preseason for the Bears.  They faced the Fearsome Foursome of QBs: Brodie Croyle, Charlie Frye, JT O'Sullivan, and Brady Quinn, and they finished 32nd in Yards Allowed, including 27th against the pass, and 31st against the run.  As a point of reference, the Colts finished 30th against the run, and they played backups and 3rd stringers for 3/4 of the Preseason.  The Bears finished 30th in Points Allowed.  These are not stats for an elite defense.

I watched a good portion of their game against the Browns, and in the first half, at a minimum Urlacher and Lance Briggs played, so it wasn't like they didn't play their starters.  And the Browns were running at will against them.  Quinn didn't need to throw the ball, as Jason Wright was shredding their defense on the ground.  Now the Browns have a very good O-Line, but their skill position starters did not play at all in the game.  And they put up 10 points in the 1st quarter against the Bears 1st Team Defense.

I was reading an article in the Chicago Sun-Times, and Brad Biggs is asking the same question I am:

The Bears would have you believe there's a switch somewhere that they'll get around to flipping this week. You know -- the one that turns on their defense now that the regular season has arrived.

He then mentions who their Week 1 opponent is, and what has happened since they last time they faced #18:

The last time the Bears took on Manning and the Colts in prime time, things didn't turn out so good, and it's fair to say the defense has been in a bit of a tailspin ever since.

On the Bears current depth chart, they have 8 starters on defense that played in the Super Bowl.  That isn't a big turnover at all, especially in today's NFL.  And they all played in the Preseason.  And they were the worst in the NFL. 

I think we are going to see a heavy dose of Joseph Addai, Dominic Rhodes, and Mike Hart on Sunday night.  Not only will we need to get Peyton into a rhythm, but we should be able to run all over the Bears defense.

We here at Stampede Blue would like to invite everyone to participate in our Year Long Prediction Contest.  Each pick will be made against the spread, and each week I'll hopefully have the picks up by Tuesday evening, so that everyone has enough time to make their picks.

With a Game on Thursday night this week, be sure to have your picks in before 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, or you won't get credit for the opening night game.  Any game that begins before picks are made will not be counted.

I'll post the results on Tuesday for each week.  I'll also be including our favorite "experts" from around the Inter-Webs, so you can see how good they really are at being "experts".

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Week 1

I'm finally all moved in, and things are starting to get back to normal.  I now have the Internet at home (2 weeks seems like an eternity), and can now go on a Fantasy Football binge until the season starts.

I'm not going to go into specific rankings, as they are very subjective based on the league.  I know we have one draft tomorrow night (friendly reminder to those in the Stampede Blue league), and its scoring is much different than the draft I had on Saturday.  What I will do is go through some strategies to help you along with creating the best team possible, hopefully to win you some money, if you are in to those sorts of things.

The first strategy to remember is to Tier Each Position.  Each position will have its own tiering structure, and each tier can have anywhere from 3 to 8 guys in each one.  Having this information will make your draft much easier.  Here are some examples from my draft this past weekend:

• Quarterbacks seemed relatively easy to tier.  This league is a keeper league, and the 4 Tier 1 QBs were already kept from last season (Brady, Peyton, Romo, and Brees).  The second tier included Palmer, McNabb, Roethlisberger, and Eli.  I wanted to make sure I grabbed one of those guys, but didn't want to to grab one too early.  Knowing ahead of time that those 4 guys would all be relatively similar, I was good getting any of them.  As each round went on, 5, then 6, then 7, and only Palmer had been chosen.  In the mean time, I got to load up on RBs and WRs, which is always a good idea.  I then grabbed Eli after Roethlisberger was chosen.  Had I not tiered guys, I probably would have taken a QB 3 rounds earlier, when there was no need to.
• Tight End is also very important to tier.  There are only a handful of TEs that are viable fantasy starters.  After I had taken Eli, there were no longer any Tier 1 or 2 TEs left, which I was ok with.  There were 4 guys who are still decent plays, and again I wanted to make sure to grab one, but not too early.  I got to wait until Round 12 before taking Greg Olsen.  Again, had I not tiered, I probably would have taken a TE way too early. Instead, I got to pad my lineup with more RBs and WRs, which (hopefully) will help my team later on.

Tiering is really easy to do, and is extremely helpful when your draft comes around.  It helps make your picks for you, at least position wise.  Your league scoring will tell you which guy to take (more on this later this week).

I enjoyed my first Fantasy Football draft this weekend with a bunch of my friends from college.  Well, enjoyed is a relative term.  I had a rough go of it:

• It is a 16 team league, which is too big for a football league, but I'll grin and bear it.
• I had the 13th pick, which is just awful.  As I learned throughout the draft, reaches were too much of a reach, and every player I wanted got snatched up just before I picked him.
• It was a draft with Individual Defensive players, and an FYI for anyone using Yahoo (you shouldn't, as FanHouse looks much better), their defensive player rankings are awful.  I did get Bob "S'ova" Sanders and Freeney, counting on the fact they are both healthy.
• I left before the draft was over, and they did not draft me a kicker.  Oh well.

Then comes to my adventure with the QB position.  I'm really high on Eli this season, and he was still sitting around in Round 7.  However, this was at the beginning of the round, and he didn't last to #13.  I basically had my team set, minus the QB, but nobody was worthy of a QB pick at this point.

In round 8, however, I couldn't wait any longer.  12 of the other teams already had a QB, so I had to take one before my next pick (which was 24 players later).  I was looking at who was left, and my gut told me I had to take one guy.  I was already frustrated, and needed to take a flyer on a feast or famine guy.  I made this comment to my buddies right before I picked:

"I hate this pick with every bone in my body, but I need to take a chance"

I took Vince Young.

This is, of course, merely hours after he looked absolutely horrible against the Raiders.  However, I did not have internet access until the draft, so I had no idea about it.  I only read BBS gushing over Young, which was enough for me to take a chance on the guy.

I'm counting on Young improving at least to 1:1 on his TD:INT ratio, plus the fact that they are going to let him run near the red zone, getting me TDs.  I did take Jeff Garcia and Matt Leinart, also hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. 

I feel dirty, and need a shower now.  Luckily Young will be "throwing" to Reggie Wayne.

I apologize for not posting much recently.  I have been busy preparing for a cross-country move, which I still haven't finished yet, but am almost there.  I'm moving from Redskin country to Broncos Country.

I didn't get a chance to actually watch the game against the Panthers, but did listen to most of the first half thanks to Sirius Satellite Radio.  I've missed the voices of Bob Lamey and Will Wolford, and it was great to hear them again.  Here's some of the things I noticed:

• The first two drives were disasters, and it was tough to tell on the radio whether it was Sorgi's fault or the Offensive Line's fault.  Again, I haven't seen any of these plays, and the radio guys said they thought it was the fact the Panthers D-Line was stunting and blitzing (which BBS brought up as well), and the O-Line just wasn't ready for it.  Sorgi did lead a nice drive, finding Harrison 3 times, and running a screen against all the blitzing to Clark.  He couldn't find the end zone, however.
• The radio guys mentioned that the Panthers starting offensive line consisted of a center, and 4 tackles.  I think that explains why they were so successful running the football against a Colts D-Line, which, as BBS said, didn't really prepare for this game.  I wouldn't worry too much about this fact.  Our D-Line is much improved, and Carolina may lead the league in rushing this season.
• Another thought on the Panther's rushing attack: They have 3 backs that could get 8+ carries a game, as I see them running the ball 35 times a game.  One, they obviously bolstered their O-Line, and second, Jake Delhomme is coming off Tommy John surgery, which is a reconstruction of his throwing elbow.  I think they want to ease him back to the mix, so they will be running a lot.  Throw in Steve Smith being suspended for the first 2 games, and running the ball a lot makes sense.
• Jared Lorenzen ran for 25 yards on a scramble?!?  I need to see this video to believe it.  He did lead 2 TD drives, one of which in a semi-hurry up offense.  It's good Dungy and the coaching staff are giving each of the QBs time in the first half to see how they do.
  
• Jacob Tamme looks to be a great Red Zone target, especially against teams with smaller LBs.  Just another weapon teams will have to contend with.
• The defense, I think, played pretty well.  Obviously the Panthers put up lots of rushing yards, but needed nearly 50 carries to do so.  14 points by the Panthers were from off turnovers deep in Colts territory, so you really can't blame the defense for that.  They then held the Panthers scoreless for 2 and a half quarters.  The Colts have some depth, and it showed.

What I'd like to see against the Falcons:

1. Let Quinn Gray start with the first team.  He's looked good with the second and third teams, even with the turnovers.  Let him throw to the big weapons, and see what happens.
2. Pressure "Captain Intangibles" and force at least 1 turnover from Ryan.
3. Stop the run game.  Both the Redskins and Panthers seemed to run all over the Colts defense.  I think this will be a trend this season (opposing teams running alot), and the Colts should start preparing now.

There was a great article in the Indy Star Wednesday by Mike Chappell talking about Joseph Addai.  He talks about how some things are just a blur to him, like the fact he's now entering his third season with the Colts:

"Seems like I was at LSU yesterday and now I'm going into my third year (in the NFL)," he said. "I'm just enjoying it."

Chappell also talks about how Addai is seeking out advice from former Colt, and the team's all-time leading rusher Edgerrin James:

In an e-mail response to The Star, James made it clear he emphasizes to Addai the need to take care of himself physically as well as the details required to play the position.

"I always tell him to take good care of his body and continue to work on the little things," James said. "Everything else is usually about life."

We all know Edge is a stand up guy, and part of me hopes that in a few years, he'll end his career back in Indianapolis.  We also know that Addai is not afraid to ask for advice, and take it to heart, which is great to know.

Addai is also really stressing consistency this season.  He wants to be the same back in Week 17 (and the playoffs) that he is in Week 1.  From the article:

Addai averaged 100.6 yards per game and 4.7 yards per attempt in his first seven games, but only 45.7 and 3.3 the rest of the way, including the playoff loss to San Diego.

Addai said he is setting some lofty goals for himself this season, but didn't share what they were.  Here are my goals for Joe, which I think he'll get:

This also doesn't take into account any other numbers the other RBs.  I think Addai is primed for a breakout season, especially if everyone stays healthy.  Here's to 4th quarters this season being dominated by #29, eating up time and protecting leads.

I was cruising around the interwebs this evening (while watching the Cubs beat up on Ben Sheets), and found some previews for this Sunday's Hall of Fame game between the Colts and Redskins.  I only read one paragraph, before I stopped in my tracks:

Sports Interaction has set Washington as a five-point favorite against Indianapolis for the Hall of Fame game at Canton this weekend. For Redskins fans, this might be as good as things get for them this year.

Wait a minute...I know gambling on NFL games is very common, and I plan on using "fake money" this year to see how well I do betting on the games.  That being said, you can bet on PRESEASON GAMES?!?  People actual put their hard-earned money on the line, hoping that Jared Lorenzen can find the 7th or 8th WR on the depth chart in the 4th quarter to cover the 5 points??  I'll quote Richard Bagg, from Van Wilder, when I say "Are you Insane?"

If you think about putting some money down on a preseason game, please stop and think about what you are doing for a second.  Set the money aside, wait until #18 is under center, and for an entire game, then put that money down on the Colts covering.  Especially in week 1.

I hope everyone enjoyed the trip down memory lane, looking back at #18's greatest games.  I certainly had fun researching games, looking back at them, and being amazed at how great Peyton Manning really is.  I wanted to recap the top 10, as well as give you a couple more "Honorable Mention" games, which fall just short.

10. Manning shreds the Denver defense on Wild Card weekend, again.

  9. Manning finally wins in Foxboro, and does it in style

  8. Manning has first perfect passer rating in win vs. the Patriots

  7. Manning finds Harrison 3 times on MNF vs. the Bengals

  6. Manning unstoppable in Kansas City in Divisional Playoff

  5. Manning has a sweet homecoming with 6 TD passes vs. Saints

  4. Manning gets "the record breaker" with TD pass #49 vs. Chargers

  3. Manning "wins the big game" in Super Bowl XLI

  2. Manning wins first playoff game vs. Broncos with perfect passer rating

  1. Manning leads 18 point comeback vs. Patriots in AFC Title Game

Here are some honorable mention games, which are still fantastic games, just not as good as those above:

• December 19, 1999 vs. Washington:  Manning secures his first playoff bid with the Colts with a 24-21 victory, and clinches the division championship after a 3-13 rookie season.  It also was win #10 in a row for the Colts.
• September 25, 2000 vs. Jacksonville:  Manning throws for 440 yards and 4 TDs against the Jaguars on Monday night.
• November 10, 2002 at Philadelphia:  Manning throws his second perfect passer rating game, throwing for 319 yards and 3 TDs in a 35-13 route of the Eagles.
• October 6, 2003 at Tampa Bay:  Manning leads the Colts to 21 points in the last 4:21 of the game to send it to overtime, ending on a Vanderjagt "doink" off the upright for the 38-35 win against the defending Super Bowl Champs.
• November 25, 2004 at Detroit:  Manning throws for 6 TDs in 3 quarters on Thanksgiving in a 41-9 spanking of the Lions.

What games did I miss?  Should any of the honorable mentions be included in the top 10?  Let me know what you think.