I feel a hot streak coming on! How can I tell? Just look at the numbers below. Notice that I had a mediocre week picking winners while at the same time enjoying my best week against the number. That means I am getting a better feel for what is going on in the NFL and I am really ready to cash in. No better time, too, because this is a tough week to pick. I feel confient however, last week's successes spurring me on!
Week 4 means we are at the quarter pole of the season, and while there is a long way to go teams are really getting a feel for what they are going to be, and fans in some cities may already be looking forward to draft day 2008.
Remember, of course, this is for recreational purposes ONLY!
LAST WEEK - Straight 9-7
Spread 9-7
OVERALL - Straight 31-17(.645)
Spread 21-27(.437)
Houston (-2.5) @ Atlanta - I'll give a little credit, but just a little, to the Atlanta Falcons. They appeared primed to upset the Carolina Panthers last week before DeAngelo Hall remembered he was, well, DeAngelo Hall. His eruption and subsequent 200 yards in penalties(yes, that is an exaggeration), essentially gave Carolina the winning score. Houston played Indy tough, and while there are no moral victories in the NFL their performance last week is enough to pick the Texas on the road this week, give the points.
Texans 23 - 10 -- 7 Stars(out of 10)
New York Jets (-3.5) @ Buffalo - The Jets have looked impressive the past couple of weeks while the Bills left me a message last night asking me to play linebacker. To say the Bills have been decimated by injuries is a severe understatement. Why, then, do I feel like the Jets are primed to be beaten? I was very tempted to take the Bills, rookie QB and all, but came to my senses just in time to tell you to give the points, jets win.
Jets 24 - 14 (4 Stars)
Baltimore @ Cleveland(+4.5) - There isn't much love-loss when the two teams that have called Cleveland home meet up. The Browns always seem to find a way to lose to the Ravens, though the one Browns-killer the Ravens had now runs the ball for Cleveland. The Ravens have not looked impressive and needed a 50 yard field-goal last year to beat the Browns in Cleveland. I think Cleveland has a great chance to win the ball game if Derek Anderson can avoid the mistakes, I'm just confident that he can. The Ravens find a way to get it done by a field goal again so take the points.
Ravens 20-17(3 Stars)
St. Louis @ Dallas(-12.5) - There are a couple of things I felt very strongly about that directly contridicted what the MSM was saying. One of those was my complete dislike of the St. Louis Rams. I just wasn't high on the Rams and it's turing out I was exactly right. With no Stephen Jackson the Rams are just a bad football team, period. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have everything on offense and seemingly can't stopped. After a beatdown of the Bears in primetime last week one might think the Cowboys could have a letdown. Not until Romo gets that big contract. The Rams stink, the Cowboys are really good, good enough to win by 2 TDs.
Cowboys 31 - 13(8 Stars)
Chicago @ Detroit(+2.5) - Sure, on paper the BEars are a better team, have better players, and are alot more talented on defense. Where they struggle, however, is with the most important position on the field. Old pal Brian Griese takes over, effectively ending the Rex Grossman era in the windy city. We know Griese's story all too well in Denver. The Lions, on the other hand, have an explosive offense navigated by the perfect quaterback to go with stability at the position. The Bears got crushed by the Cowboys, and Tommy Harris got hurt to boot. This is a gimme game, take the points the Lions win straight out.
Lions 24 - 16 (7 stars)
Oakland (+3.5)@ Miami - Joey Porter guaranteed victory for the Dolphins this week. Did Porter forget he doesn't play in Pittsb urgh any longer? The Dolphins are getting beat down by everyone and Porter's defense has alot to do with it. The Raiders are a well-positioned time out from being 2-1 and find themselves getting over a field goal in this one. Daunte Culpepper will get the start and have revenge on his mind returning to Miami. What is the Dolphin's motivation? Oh yea, Porter's stupid comments. I'll take the points, Raiders get the win.
Raiders 20 - 10 (5 Stars)
Green Bay(-2.5) @ Minnesota - Another team I wasn't very high on before the season was the Vikings, and like the Rams, they have proven me a prophet. After getting a win in Week 1, the Vikings have lost two striaght and decided that their best offensive player wasn't good enough to play in the 4th quarter. Brad Childress is starting to look like the wrong guy in the Twin-Cities. The Packers are going the other way, winning with defense and the solid decisions being made by Brett Favre. Favre knows he has a solid defense so he is taking what he is given, not trying to force the action. The result is the Pack are 3-0 and look like a force to reckoned with in the "anything can happen" NFC. Even though Favre has struggled in the Dome, 2.5 seems too small to me. I'll give the points and take Favre to keep on winning.
Packers 24 - 14 (7 Stars)
Tampa bay (+2.5) @ Carolina - This one is easy. The last 4 seasons, the NFC South has been won by the team that finished in last place the season prior. Guess who finished last in 1006? Exactly, the Bucs. Jeff Garcia simply knows how to win, and the Panthers just might have to start David Carr. The home game ofr Carolina shouldn't mean a whole lot. Ericsson Stadium, or whatever it goes by now, is one of the quietest in the League, with 1/2 of North Carolina still watching NASCAR. I'll be happy to take the points and take the Bucs to win.
Buccaneers 20 - 13 (7 Stars)
Seattle @ San Francisco(+1.5) - The NFC West might be the funnest division to watch game in and game out. All 4 teams are mediocre, with the Seahawks trying to hold off two teams - Arizona and San Francisco -- that are trying to figure out how to win on a consistent basis. I really like what the Niner's are about, and having beat the Seahawks twice last season has given the Niners alot of confidence heading into the contest. I like the Niners to win the game and the fact that I am getting points is an added bonus.
49ers 23 - 20 (6 Stars)
Pittsburgh @ Arizona(+5.5) - The Steelers are riding high, feeling good at 3-0. The Cards are doing waht the Cards do best, find ways to lose football games. Seems like a lock that the Steelers will win this one, right? Not so fast....No one knows the Steelers offensive persionnel like Ken Whisenhunt and going against the Steelers defense everyday in practice for 5 years will give you some insight on the defense as well. It'll be hot, even in the dome, and with Kurt Warner primed to see some action, especially in the 2-minute drill, the Cards are primed for the upset. I'll take the points, and I'll take the Cards to pull the upset of the weekend.
Cardinals 24 - 17 (5 Stars)
Denver (+9.5) @ Indianapolis - Let's face it. The Broncos played lousy last weekend against the Jags, especially on defense. The best thing for them might be to head out on the road, against a hostile opponent, and forge an "us against the world" attitude. The Broncos face an interesting dilemna in this one. Denver's struggles defending the run are well-documented. The best way to hide that weakness is to get a lead and force your opponent to throw the football. Ummmmm, that might not be such a good idea this weekend with Mr. Manning on the other side. The Broncos need to dominate time of possession and play smashmounth offense along with opportunistic defense. From rpide's sake I am going to take the points but to beat the Colts with the present state of the team is going to be a tall order. Maybe reverse psychology will set in, I'll take the Colts to win, hoping the Broncos pull it off and you guys and gals will be able to make me eat crow. With pleasure!
Colts 30 - 27 (4 Stars)
Kansas City(+12.5) @ Sand Diego - You are a struggling football team. The pressure is mounting on your offense and your defense has looked uninpired. What is a fan to do? Hope for a visit from the Kansas City Chiefs. That's exactly what the Chargers get this weekend and we should finally see L.T. look a bit like L.T. The Chargers played pretty well in Green bay, with Philip Rivers actually moving the ball on offense. It's been the defense that hasn't gotten it done. The Chiefs offense is awful and should help the Charger defense get healthy in a hurry. L.J. might be rethinking that contract extension he sign right about now. It's an AFC West matchup so I'll take the popints, but the Chargers win rather handily.
Chargers 23 - 14 (7 Stars)
Philadelphia(-2.5) @ NY Giants - Two teams that everyone had left for dead last week, the Ginats and Eagles both notched huge wins and look to see of last week was the start of something or just a flash in the pan. The Giants actually found something on defense in the 2nd half against the Redskins, but won't have the luxury of facing an inexperienced quarterback. Talk about finding something, Donovan McNabb certainly found the end-zone last week and he found a new favorite receiver. Keven Curtis' huge day bodes well for the Eagles moving forward. Brian Westbrook is banged up but says he'll play. This will be a tough, hard-nosed football gae but I simply like the Eagles more than the Giants no matter where the game is played.
Eagles 27 - 10(6 Stars)
New England (-7.5) @ Cincinnati - The Bengals have lost 2 in a row and have looked bad doing it, especially on defense. What's their reward? A visit by the Patriots and an offense that looks unstoppable. Life can be so cruel sometimes. After only 3 games the Patriots are starting to hear the questions about going undefeated, stupid if you ask me, but there is little denying just how good they are. Tom Brady has thrown 18 incompletions....IN THREE GAMES! That's just unfair. Randy Moss looks like he'll be on his best behavior and the Pats are still playing without Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison. The Bengals gave up 51 to the Browns. What do you think the Pats will be able to do?? Cincinnati will have to score alot of points if they are going to win, but unforunitely the Patriots can score more...give the points.
Patriots 31 - 23 (9 Stars)
You smell that?? That's the smell of victory. That's the smell of money in my pocket. This is the week I put it all together and get it done. Just Pay Me, BABY!