Grading McD's Drafts (3)

This is Part Three of an occasional series where I look at Josh McDaniels' draft performance, compared to the other three teams in the league. The last time I looked at this was after Week 1 of this season.

For review, what I am specifically looking at is how many game appearances each player has made, regardless of what team they actually end up playing for. The idea is that the decision of what players to keep/trade is different than the decision of what players to draft. We'd expect talent-poor teams to have more game appearances for their rookies, but that doesn't mean it's not a good draft - as the years go by, this sort of thing will shake out, and then after 3-4 years, you can have a good idea of what a team's draft class is worth. Meanwhile, talent-rich teams might have a lot of competition, but you would still expect a good player to make game appearances in a backup role. Otherwise, they will get cut, and if they are good, would make game appearances for another team.

Data for the AFC West through Week 5 after the jump.

Denver Broncos 2009
Player Game Appearances Possible Appearances Score
Knowshon Moreno 18 21 85.71%
Robert Ayers 20 21 95.24%
Alphonso Smith 20 21 95.24%
Darcel McBath 16 21 76.19%
Richard Quinn 18 21 85.71%
David Bruton 19 21 90.48%
Seth Olsen 3 21 14.29%
Kenny McKinley (R.I.P.) 8 21 38.10%
Tom Brandstater 0 21 0%
Blake Schlueter 0 21 0%




Aside from the elephant in the room of seeing McKinley's name in this table, the other thing that jumps out at me here is that Alphonso Smith is going to have the most game appearances as of next week. Our overall number has gone down a slight amount since the last time I ran the numbers.

Denver Broncos 2010
Player Game Appearances Possible Appearances Score
Demaryius Thomas 4 5 80%
Tim Tebow 1 5 20%
Zane Beadles 5 5 100%
J.D. Walton 5 5 100%
Eric Decker 0 5 0%
Perrish Cox 5 5 100%
Eric Olsen 1 5 20%
Syd'Quan Thompson 2 5 40%
Jammie Kirlew 0 5 0%
Total 23 40


It looks like this is roughly in line with our previous year's performance. I am betting that Eric Olsen is being groomed to be Russ Hochstein's replacement, as a backup for both Center and Guard. Decker should make plenty of game appearances in the future, assuming he is picking up the scheme well.

Finally, here is a table summarizing the draft performances for the entire AFC West over the same time period.

Team 2009 2010 Total
Oakland 99/147 = 67.35% 28/45 = 62.22% 127/192 = 66.15%
Denver 122/210 = 58.10% 23/40 = 57.50% 145/250 = 58.00%
Kansas City 83/168 = 49.40% 24/28 = 85.71% 107/196 = 54.59%
San Diego 75/168 = 44.64% 5/30 = 16.67% 80/198 = 40.40%

You might say that Oakland's success is due to them being a crappy team, but they are getting some excellent output out of their 2009 draft class - their 2009 numbers actually climbed from last time I looked at this.

It's also clear that being a crappy team doesn't always mean that you're going to have a visible draft class. Kansas City had a relatively poor 2009 draft. However, their 2010 numbers are stellar and it looks like that will continue - I'd bet their overall numbers will overtake Denver in the next few weeks, unless we start seeing a Tebow-to-Decker combination happening with some frequency. It looks like drafting struggles in a front office's first year is not limited to the Denver Broncos.

Finally, I just want to point at San Diego and laugh. I don't think those numbers are because they're so talent-rich. A couple of their picks have moved on to other teams and haven't gotten much traction in their new locations. However, they've also been hit by injuries to both Larry English and Donald Butler - suddenly our Darcel McBath situation doesn't look so bad.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR.