When Have We Been Running? (The Rushing Game by Down and Quarter)

The running game is a topic of considerable interest among Broncos fans. This, along with a desire to have some time to consider ways to adjust the OYPP/DYPP analysis to account for special teams contributions, has prompted me to put the "A Grand Experiment" series on hold for a time. This article will be the first of a three-part look at the Broncos' running game. Part One will look at the Broncos rushing attack by down, and by quarter. Part Two will delve into the directions the runs have gone. Part Three will look at where on the field the offense has been when the decision was made to run.

Let's jump into the running game.

I'd like to start by making you aware of a very important fact: the numbers (rushing attempts and yards) may not precisely align with the "official" numbers posted in the statistics columns of various sources. The reason for this is largely two-fold:

(1)I have not included quarterback scrambles on broken pass plays as rush attempts, even though those are tallied as rushing attempts and yards. I am focusing very narrowly on designed running plays.

(2)I have included running plays that were nullified by either penalties or challenges. In those cases, the Broncos may have actually produced positive yardage, but lost that advantage due to a penalty or challenge.

Let's take a look at what the Broncos rushing game has done so far this year. The official lines for each game look like this:

Not terribly impressive numbers. In fact, very poor numbers. Let's take a look at how these number look based on down.

What we can see is that Denver has done the majority (60%) of their running on First Down. On those first down runs, the Broncos are averaging 2.2 yards per carry. Second down carries have comprised 26% of the rushing attack. Those carries have averaged 2.1 yards per carry. Eleven percent of the Broncos carries have come on third down. Denver has averaged 1.9 yards per carry. Strangely enough, Denver's highest average of 2.7 yards per carry has come on the three fourth down carries.

It is also important to note that the Broncos have had three first downs nullified by two penalties and a first down. The offense has also had one positive run nullified by a Defensive Offsides penalty. Finally, the Broncos had one touchdown reversed by a coach's challenge.

Another way to look at the Broncos rushing attack is to examine when the team has chosen to run. The following data breaks down the runs by quarter.

This look at the rushing game is rather intriguing. The runs have been fairly evenly spread between the Second (31%), Third (23%), and Fourth quarters (27%). The Second Quarter was the most productive overall. In the first quarter, the Broncos averaged 2.3 yards per carry. They averaged 2.5 yards per carry in the second, 1.9 in the third, and 1.7 in the fourth. We can also see how mental mistakes (penalties, and a fumble) have cost the Broncos in the running game.

1)The majority of Denver's runs have occurred on first down. There may likely be two primary reasons for this: (a)The Broncos want to show an early commitment to the run to open up the passing game, and (b)The overall average (2.2 yards per carry) has left the Broncos with 2nd and long on a regular basis, thus changing the available choices.

2)The Broncos have shown a commitment to the run that stretches throughout the game. Their most productive quarter for rushing has been the second.

3)Three first downs have been nullified by mistakes -- two penalties and a fumble.

4)One touchdown was lost through a coach's challenge.

5)Denver has run 287 offensive plays in their first four games. Running plays have made up 35% of those plays. There are, at least, two ways that this could be looked at: (a)The commitment/purpose of the running game -- at this point in time -- is more about attempting to keep the opposing defenses honest and opening up the passing game, and (b)The commitment is not particularly strong since the running attack has not been particularly effective.

Next time: Where Have We Been Running? (The Rushing Attack by Play Direction)