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To be completely honest, I was worried I'd come out rusty and completely whiff on all my picks. Though I lost all but one, I felt I called the right games. It just didn't work out. The teams I picked lost by 5, 2, and 1 points, so in this case if I am to be wrong I'd prefer to be wrong and close than to be wrong in a blowout.
Normally I try to stick to a couple of upset picks a week, because any more than that and it usually becomes a wash and you'll gain very little ground in pick'em leagues. Today I have six very interesting games that I'm tempted to pick the underdogs in. I'll profile all of them, but I plan to only actually take three of them.
So let's all put our thinking caps on like John Fox up there and get down to business.
Now, onto WEEK 4!
Last Week: 1-3
Overall Record: 1-3
*NOTE* For those who wonder, I look at the percentages from Yahoo! and take a look at my picks and compare them to what everyone else picked on that website. If a team has under 30% then I would consider it a high risk pick, a team that has been picked between 31-40% would rank as a medium risk, and 41% to 59% would be a low risk pick.
High Risk Upset Picks:
St. Louis Rams over Washington Redskins
I am all over this game. The Rams screwed me in Week 1 by not beating the Eagles like I thought they should have, but the Redskins are one of those teams that I wholeheartedly believe is a fraud. They are barely a .500 football team in my mind and the Rams are one of those young teams trying to figure out its identity. After a huge let down loss to the Cowboys last week, I fully expect the Redskins to come out flat against the lowly Rams. This is one of my three locks!
New York Jets over Baltimore Ravens
The only reason this pick is here is because only 20% of Yahoo! users have picked the Jets. I think this game is going to come down to the wire and could go either way. With that in mind, if you really believe the Jets are the better team then I suggest taking the risk. I've decided to go with the crowd on this one, but if the Jets were at home I'd likely change my mind.
Arizona Cardinals over New York Giants
Users are all over the Giants here, but this has "trap game" written all over it. The Giants are traditionally a streaky team, so I've decided not to jump all over this one. It's just not worth the risk. If only the Giants had lost last week. lol
Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons
As bad as Seattle is, at least they still play hard at home. I envy their homefield advantage, something I've missed in our own town for about two and a half years now. If only the Seahawks weren't such a talent deficient team, otherwise I'd take them in a heartbeat over the superior Falcons team.
Medium Risk Upset Picks:
Dallas Cowboys over Detroit Lions
Wow, 69% of Yahoo! users went with the homer pick here in the Lions. I consider the Cowboys to be a borderline playoff team, which is what the Lions might be as well. However, name a playoff team the Lions have beaten on the road this year? Umm yeah, so it doesn't take much for me to go with the Cowboys at home who are coming off two consecutive heroic victories. My second of three locks!
Low Risk Upset Picks:
Pittsburgh Steelers over Houston Texans
This one is fairly even, with about 57% siding with Houston here. The question everyone needs to ask themselves is... are the Texans for real? I think they are a borderline playoff team much like the Cowboys and Lions, however, they got run over by the Saints and now they have to contend with the Steelers. The Texans are home, but they need a signature win over a major playoff contender before I'm convinced they are the real deal. Take the Steelers here for my third and final lock for week 4!
Good luck!