Sunday, Oct 30, 2011 at 2:05PM MDT
Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Denver Broncos (2-4) vs. Detroit Lions (5-2)
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I asked the guys over at Pregame.com to give me their thoughts. Pregame.com is the largest sports betting news site compliant with U.S. law, and have been featured by ESPN, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, and hundreds of other national outlets. Pregame.com has agreed to provide us with exclusive insider analysis of how Las Vegas is looking at this week's Broncos game.
Marco D’Angelo (Follow on twitter: @MarcoInVegas)
No thanks, I'll pass. You can sell my seat to someone else on the Tim Tebow bandwagon. I am not going to buy it. This team has a bad defense and with Tebow at QB, they have a bad offense as well. For 55 minutes Tebow did nothing completing just 4 passes. With 5 mins left Denver found themselves down 15-0. Miami decided to go into prevent defense and suddenly Tebow was dinking and dunking his way down field. Denver was able to score and get the onside kick and then the Tebow love fest was born. He tied the game at 15-15 and then won it in overtime.
Detroit was the darling of the league just 3 weeks ago, but back to back losses has everyone jumping off the Detroit bandwagon. Detroit lost to the 49ers who are playing very well and that was the game following Detroit's big win on Monday Night Football. Detroit was flat off of that Monday Night game. Last week they lost to an Atlanta team who is starting to put it together and remember last year this Atlanta team was 13-3. Denver can't stop good passing teams and Detroit is just that, so I see several big plays for the Lions offense on Sunday. Bottom line: we are getting value with Detroit because of all the Tebow hype. Detroit wins by 10.
Vegas Runner (Follow on twitter: @VegasRunner)
Prior to the season kicking off, the line being offered for the Week 8 match-up was Detroit -1. This week books opened the line as high as -3.5 and received immediate money on Denver from sharp bettors. Currently, the line sits at -3 and even as low as -2.5, which is a major move since "3" is such a key number in the NFL based on 18% of results falling on that number. The move made by betting syndicates was due to the injury to Stafford, knowing that even if he does start he won't be at 100%. It was also due to the Lions looking much more like the projected 8-8 team prior to the season in their last 2 games. On the flip side, the Broncos may not have won pretty against the Dolphins, but the ends justified the means and Tim Tebow ultimately provided a much needed spark. Looking at this week's game, the Lions come in with an ATS margin of +34 and the Broncos are -15. Historically, most teams finish the season with an ATS margin of +/- 6 so the betting market should see a regression by Detroit and a progression by Denver. The Lions have won only once (1971) in Denver and I don't expect them to make it twice. Personally, I feel there is a lot of value taking +3 with the home dog and I believe we will also get a low-scoring game that'll result in the UNDER 43 cashing as well. PICK = BRONCOS +3
Bryan Leonard (Follow on twitter: @BLeonardSports)
The Lions started the season on fire offensively, but have come back down to earth in the last month. Over the last three games Detroit has scored 16, 19 and 24 points with the final total points scored in those games being 39, 44 and 37. Keep in mind that in all three of those contests both the Lions and their opponents had their opening day starting quarterbacks. That won't be the case here. Starting running back Jahvid Best is injured along with a hobbled Matthew Stafford, so the Detroit offense which has scored a combined 26 first half points the last five games will be severely hampered. Defensively the Lions have held all but one opponent to under 26 points, so we look for a conservative game plan from the Detroit coaching staff.
Denver has made the quarterback change to Tebow and the Broncos were rewarded with a victory last week against the Dolphins. Denver played a field position game and we will likely see another conservative game plan here. Tebow is a running quarterback who throws short passes. That means lots of time off the clock without any big play possibilities. Defensively Denver has held 4 of 5 opponents to 23 points or less with only the potent Green Bay offense lighting this team up. It's very possible by game time that we will see two quarterbacks behind center that were listed as second and third string coming out of camp. If Hill is announced the starter this line tumbles. Regardless we look for a low scoring defensive struggle out of both teams.
Joe Gavazzi (visit at www.JoeGavazzi.com)
The Tim Tebow era has arrived. Trailing 15-0 with 5 minutes remaining, he rallied the Broncos to an 18-15 win. There is plenty of value in this line based on Detroit's hot start. Despite losing their last 2, they have still covered the line by a net 32 points this season. At this Thursday writing, Detroit QB Stafford (leg) is expected to start. But their most explosive runner, Best, is doubtful to make post. Favor the clear momentum of the Broncos at what remains a value price.