My Attempt To Make Sense Of It All

Opening Statement

With so much going on in Denver this year, I thought it would be interesting to try to look back and at least attempt to understand what has just happened.

First, I do believe in God (Jehovah, Yahweh, Adonai) and his Supernatural power. I believe things happen that are simply inexplicable on the human level. Since we are only natural beings, we cannot grasp who God is and how he thinks, acts and feels apart from what his Holy Spirit reveals to us. That also means there are events or a chain of events that could last for years that happen and we are incapable of understanding why or how on our own.

What does this have to do with Denver? To me, everything. Why? ...because of where the Broncos were at the beginning of the season and where they are now. ...because the Denver Broncos are led by a young man who puts his faith in God Almighty. After the jump is a breakdown of events before the season, during Denver's 1-4 start and during Denver's current win streak of 6 out of 7 games.

2011 Outline

This outline will describe in detail the significant events of the season up to week 13 where the Broncos sit atop the AFC West with a 7-5 record.

Trading Kyle Orton

The 2011 season started with the front office attempting to trade Kyle Orton before the first preseason game. Instead of receiving valuable practice time, Tebow was pushed back to second string (or third or fourth or whatever) when the Orton trade fell through and Kyle remained the starter for the Broncos.

Analysis:

• With a shortened off-season, John Elway, Brian Xanders and John Fox likely felt none of the quarterbacks were good enough to build a team around. Since Tim Tebow was essentially a rookie drafted in the first round with a big contract, they may have felt it was a good idea to see if he was capable of living up to his draft status.
• The reasons as to why the trade fell through have ranged from Orton asking for too much money and/or an extended contract to the Dolphins being reluctant to sign a veteran who was already with his second team and would have been costly for a team that needed to rebuild on the offense. The truth is, it was probably a little bit of both. Blaming one party or the other is pointless and impossible since we weren't there behind the scenes.
• What we can deduct in hindsight is Miami showed too much faith in Chad Henne but surprisingly did a good job with the signing of Matt Moore. For Denver, Orton may have let his pride get in the way, and with Tebow in Denver, he was unable to handle the distraction and lead the team with any kind of success that he had enjoyed with Josh McDaniels as head coach during the first 5 games of the 2011 season.

• The most obvious reason for a decline in performance might go to the injury to Elvis Dumervil. With his NFL-best 17 sacks gone, the front-seven was going to have to pick up the slack. The problem extended beyond him, though. There was a serious lack in talent and production.
• The secondary played very well in 2009, but Hill, Goodman and Dawkins struggled last season. With few good pass rushers, mediocre quarterbacks were having great games against this defense.
• The first thing EFX did was draft a player who could put pressure on the passer. They envisioned Von Miller having a greater impact and more talent that Marcell Dareus, a defensive tackle that was viewed as a perfect fit for Denver. This season has shown that they made the correct choice here.
• EFX drafted FS Rahim Moore and MLB Nate Irving to take over as starters in either 2011 or 2012. So far, these players have done little this season, but with an offseason with Fox and Dennis Allen, I imagine there will be some improvement.
• Elvis Dumervil returned. Although his production was limited because he was still not in football shape, he and rookie Von Miller forced Oakland to max protect before they had played a single down in the 2011 NFL season.
• EFX signed Brodrick Bunkley to shore up one of the worst rush defenses in the league. Marcus Thomas was also brought back, along with Kevin Vickerson. While announcers have stated Darren Sproles was the best offseason acquisition in the NFL, and the Saints have definitely benefited from his play, Bunkley has also been a terrific acquisition.
• The Broncos switched to a 4-3. This allows Denver's players to line up in their preferred positions. Robert Ayers is a great run-stuffing defensive end/tackle hybrid. DJ Williams is a superior outside linebacker than he is an inside linebacker. Joe Mays remains the starting MLB and is a more natural fir than Williams. Although this is only the base defense and often only happens on less than half of the plays, the change has definitely allowed more star players to be in on a single play. With Dumervil, Ayers, Bunkley, Miller and DJ on the field at the same time, the front-seven has greatly improved in talent and production.

Analysis:

What do these games that Denver won have in common?

1. In 5 of the 6 games, Denver trailed until the fourth quarter.
2. Denver scored enough to get within a touchdown in all of them in the fourth quarter.
3. Players made outstanding plays-Rosario, Thomas, Decker, Royal and Fells all came up with clutch receptions. McGahee and Ball had great runs to score or set up touchdowns and field goals. Tebow completed great passes and ran for first downs to extend the drives. Miller and Dumervil put great pressure on the quarterbacks. Bailey, Goodman and Dawkins were great against the pass. Williams, Mays, Haggan, Bunkley, Ayers, Thomas and McBean contained the running backs as well. The offensive line, with Clady, Beadles, Walton, Kuper and Franklin have opened up holes for the running backs and given Tebow time to throw the ball. Colquitt has been punting the ball out of his mind is one of the best in the NFL. Prater has hit field goals when Denver needed him to.
4. I just named over half of Denver's team above. This team is making plays that they failed to do in the first 5 games of the season. This team is slowly coming together. Under the leadership of Tebow, this team has played inspired football. No matter what the odds have been, despite being an underdog in seemingly every game except Minnesota (even in the Minnesota game to some), Denver found a way to make one more play than the other team and get the win.

Analysis:

• With the focus on the running game and Tebow's athleticism, it is no surprise that Denver has vaulted to the top of the NFL in rushing yards per game. They are second in the NFL in attempts per game (33.2) behind Houston (36.0).
• The points per game total also includes defensive and special teams scoring, like Goodman's interception return for a touchdown against the Jets and Royal's punt return for a touchdown against Oakland.
• The QB rating in the second column is only Tebow's rating instead of a cumulative rating with both Orton's and Tebow's numbers combined.
• It should be noted that despite the huge improvement over Orton, Tebow still has a lot of room for improvement. Given that he is essentially a rookie and has had to learn as the weeks go on with a young offense, a rating of 72.0 is very impressive. As long as he keeps his turnovers down and continues to work on his accuracy, you will see a huge jump. The goal for every franchise is to have a quarterback rating over 80. This number indicates a lot of production and few mistakes such as turnovers, incomplete passes and sacks.
• It is important to note that Denver faced 5 talented teams while Orton was the starter. Since then, they have teams that have struggled. However, they faced 2 teams (Oakland and San Diego) on the road after two home losses, and played much better and obviously squeezed out two wins. For this reason, strength of schedule is only so valid. They may have faced tougher competition, but they have won because they have played better.

Defensive/Team Statistics

Analysis:

• Denver struggled to defend the pass, and much of that had to do with the struggles of rookie FS Rahim Moore. Elvis Dumervil was also not 100%, and his performance over the last 7.5 games has been awesome. While the run defense has been good at times, it still continues to struggle on occasion. Still, they are a much improved unit compared to last season. In his first year as the head coach for Denver, Fox has done a tremendous job with the defense.
• Again, the Broncos have allowed a couple high scoring games, but have done very well in most of the games in limiting the scoring opportunities. Although it seems like only a small improvement, to average almost 2 field goals less per game means over the last 7 games Denver has allowed only 21.1 points per game, almost 3 field goals less per game. This is a huge improvement from last season, where they allowed 29.4 points per game. Even if the argument is used that the offenses they have faced are struggling, Minnesota, San Diego, New York, Detroit, Oakland and Miami have all played well recently and are capable of scoring well over 20 points per game.
• The front seven has come alive with Dumervil getting healthy and Miller progressing as a pass rusher. Averaging just under 3 sacks per game (2.8) is impressive considering they only had 23 sacks all of last year (they have 33 after 12 games this season). They are currently on pace to have 45 sacks.
• Despite the added pressure and quarterback hits, the Broncos still have only forced 1.3 turnovers per game. While Denver has avoided turning the ball over, this is an area that needs the most improvement.
• While the QB rating for the first 4.5 games is absolutely atrocious, they did face some quality quarterbacks. Campbell has played surprisingly well with one of the best running games. Dalton has been a solid rookie, Hasselbeck has energized Tennessee's offense, Rodgers is have one of the best seasons a quarterback has ever had, and Rivers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. While the quality of NFL players has diminished considerably, Denver's performance against the pass has also improved.

Quarterback Rating - This rating measures not only the accuracy of the quarterback, but the ability of the quarterback and wide receivers to score touchdowns. It also measures the quarterbacks ability to throw down the field as well as avoid costly turnovers. Finally, the offensive line is extremely important and this measure's their ability to protect the quarterback.

Defensive QB Rating - It measures the defense's ability to stop quarterbacks from being effective.

Plays Per Touchdown - This rating simply measures an offense's ability to score in as few plays as possible. While the offense tries to score as quickly as possible, the defense's job is to force the offense to run as many plays as possible to score 7 points.

Net Miscellaneous - This measures each team's ability to avoid turnovers, penalties, and covert on third and fourth down more effectively than the opponent. Although these are not updated after this week's win over Minnesota, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at where Denver stands after two-thirds of the season.

Efficiency Rating	Score	NFL Rank
QB Rating	69.1	12th*
Def QB Rating	81.7	30th
Off. Play / TD	25.1	23rd
Def. Play / TD	21.5	21st
Net Misc	20.7	24th (t)

Denver has faced a lot of criticism over the last 2 months, whether self-inflicted or from outside of Dove Valley.

1. Elway and Fox have appeared at times to not want Tebow as their quarterback.
2. McCoy's play-calling has come into question seemingly every game as being too conservative.
3. The wide receivers have been questioned at times for dropped passes.
4. The defense has given up big plays on occasion.
5. Finally, Tebow is at the center of it all, and many have said he can't throw, can't play quarterback, can't carry the offense and should play fullback or tight end. The offense is too limited with him as the QB.

It seems there is an unending list of quotes from notable people in history that talk about how things in life may never be what you would like them to be, but its how you deal with that adversity that "defines" you.

Tim Tebow, the leader of the surging Denver Broncos, would probably quote from the Bible with these verses - James 1:2-6 (NIV)

2. Consider it pure joy, my brothers, whenever you face trials of many kinds,

3. because you know that the testing of your faith develops perseverance.

4. Perseverance must finish its work so that you may be mature and complete, not lacking anything.

5. If any of you lacks wisdom, he should ask God, who gives generously to all without finding fault, and it will be given to him.

6. But when he asks, he must believe and not doubt, because he who doubts is like a wave of the sea, blown and tossed by the wind.