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Stat Snip: Week 5 Broncos-Patriots

Jared Wickerham - Getty Images

Another week, another game to review, another chance to dig into the game and see what statistics stand out as helpful to understanding the game or may be a trend that will affect future games. Now this is just a short article, like the title suggests, this won't be indepth or intense, just something that is, hopefully, interesting.

Onto this week's Stat Snip:

  • 2-3 Teams:
    - Average Wins: 7.1
    - Chances of a Winning Record: 27%
  • 3-3 Teams:
    - Average Wins: 8.1
    - Chances of a Winning Record: 47%
  • 2-4 Teams:
    - Average Wins: 6.4
    - Chances of a Winning Record: 15%

Few games are going to be as important for the Denver Broncos as this next game against the Chargers, for a number reasons. The first is the obvious statistical reason, teams that start 2-4 usually don't end up doing well, and while 3-3 teams don't do amazingly well either, the difference is noticeably big.

The second big reason is the bye after the Chargers game, going into a bye after a loss is never a good thing, both emotionally or in terms of production. No team likes spending two weeks after a loss just watching that game film and trying to fix the issues that cost you the previous game. Also teams that go into their bye with a losing record only have a 11% chance of making the playoffs.

Overall while the entire season is rarely determined by one game, but if the Broncos lose this game and drop to 2-4 and the Chargers rise to 4-2 the chance of winning the division shrink rapidly since the Chargers will be 3-0 in the division.

I don't want to spread doom and gloom, instead I want to make the point that seasons have pivot points, whether it's switching from Jake Plummer to Jay Cutler or Kyle Orton to Tim Tebow or the 2012 Broncos taking control of their destiny, some pivots have a good ending, some don't end as well but week six is a pivot point for this Broncos team, do they set their course for the playoffs by controlling the division or do they falter and fall behind in the race for the post-season? It's a key game and going into the bye I know that both the Broncos and their fans want to spend the following two weeks happy with where they are going rather than discussing what the 2013 season holds. Now would the season be over if we lose the Chargers game, no, but it makes it much harder to make it to the post-season.