During the offseason last year, I wrote a piece using the Production Ratio from Pat Kirwan's book, "Take Your Eye Off the Ball." The Production Ratio is used to measure the playmaking potential for the Front 7 players on Defense coming out of college. There are many aspects to scouting -- Character, Work ethic, Intelligence, Football instincts, Competitiveness and Developmental upside to name a few, but this formula can be used to narrow down the players to focus on during the National Scouting Combine that will be held this week in Indianapolis.
The formula goes like this:
(SACKS + TACKLES FOR LOSS)/NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED = PRODUCTION RATIO
What we are looking for someone who scores a 1.0 or better. As a point of reference, other players drafted by the Broncos last year, Nate Irving and Mike Mohamed, had scores of 1.4 and .54 respectively. 7th round pick Jeremy Beal had a 1.62 score and we will see if he can transition from Linebacker to Defensive End.
With special thanks and a Mile High Salute to Lars (One.Cool.Customer) over at Blogging the Boys for this next table and living up to his handle, here's a look at the 2011 standout OLB rookies and their college Production Ratio:
| NFL | College Production | ||||||
| Draft Round / Pick | Player | Team | Sacks 2011 | Sacks | TFL | Games | Production Ratio |
| Round: 1 / Pick: 7 | Aldon Smith | SF | 14 | 17 | 29 | 23 | 2.00 |
| Round: 1 / Pick: 2 | Von Miller | DEN | 11.5 | 33 | 50.5 | 47 | 1.78 |
| Round: 1 / Pick: 16 | Ryan Kerrigan | WAS | 7.5 | 37.5 | 55.5 | 48 | 1.94 |
| Round: 2 / Pick: 43 | Brooks Reed | HOU | 6 | 17 | 25 | 46 | 0.91 |
| Round: 3 / Pick: 70 | Justin Houston | KC | 5.5 | 20 | 38 | 36 | 1.61 |
| Round: 2 / Pick: 39 | Akeem Ayers | TEN | 2 | 14 | 29.5 | 37 | 1.18 |
Note: Players with an asterisk are Juniors declaring for the draft and Adrian Robinson was not invited to the Combine.
| OVR | Name | School | Hgt | Wgt | 40 Tm | Sks | TFL | Gm | P. Ratio | TTKL | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | Bruce Irvin (DE) | West Virginia | 6'2" | 245 | 4.50 | 22.5 | 29.0 | 25 | 2.06 | 61 | 1 | 0 |
| 61 | *Jonathan Massaquoi (DE) | Troy | 6'3" | 250 | 4.66 | 19.5 | 31.0 | 25 | 2.02 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
| 38 | LaVonte David | Nebraska | 6'1" | 225 | 4.62 | 11.5 | 28.0 | 27 | 1.46 | 285 | 12 | 2 |
| 285 | Miles Burris | San Diego St. | 6'2" | 235 | 4.73 | 19.0 | 47.0 | 50 | 1.32 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
| 154 | Kyle Wilber | Wake Forest | 6'4" | 249 | 4.70 | 13.5 | 35.5 | 43 | 1.14 | 195 | 6 | 0 |
| 257 | Adrian Robinson | Temple | 6'1" | 250 | 4.73 | 22.5 | 33.5 | 50 | 1.12 | 156 | 4 | 2 |
| 64 | Shea McClellin (DE) | Boise St. | 6'3" | 248 | 4.74 | 19.5 | 32.0 | 49 | 1.05 | 129 | 0 | 0 |
| 113 | *Terrell Manning | N. Carolina St. | 6'3" | 225 | 4.63 | 10.0 | 27.5 | 36 | 1.04 | 193 | 9 | 5 |
| 148 | Brandon Lindsey (DE) | Pittsburgh | 6'2" | 255 | 4.68 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 45 | 1.02 | 112 | 3 | 1 |
| 167 | Emmanuel Acho | Texas | 6'2" | 245 | 4.79 | 8.5 | 39.0 | 48 | 0.99 | 262 | 9 | 2 |
| 20 | Courtney Upshaw | Alabama | 6'2" | 265 | 4.76 | 16.0 | 35.5 | 53 | 0.97 | 140 | 4 | 1 |
| 213 | Darius Fleming | Notre Dame | 6'2" | 255 | 4.65 | 15.5 | 32.5 | 50 | 0.96 | 158 | 7 | 2 |
| 53 | *Ronnell (Travis) Lewis | Oklahoma | 6'2" | 244 | 4.63 | 10.0 | 28.5 | 34 | 0.90 | 118 | 0 | 0 |
| 363 | Brandon Marshall | Nevada | 6'1" | 245 | 4.76 | 6.0 | 33.5 | 52 | 0.76 | 359 | 16 | 3 |
| 210 | Danny Trevathan | Kentucky | 6'0" | 232 | 4.68 | 5.0 | 31.5 | 51 | 0.72 | 372 | 7 | 4 |
| 293 | Tahir Whitehead | Temple | 6'1" | 228 | 4.70 | 7.0 | 22.5 | 50 | 0.65 | 163 | 5 | 1 |
| 233 | Tank Carder | TCU | 6'2" | 236 | 4.67 | 5.5 | 25.0 | 50 | 0.61 | 228 | 19 | 4 |
| 266 | Demario Davis | Arkansas St. | 6'2" | 232 | 4.60 | 7.0 | 22.5 | 48 | 0.61 | 230 | 7 | 4 |
| 95 | Nigel Bradham | Florida St. | 6'2" | 249 | 4.67 | 9.0 | 21.5 | 53 | 0.57 | 306 | 11 | 3 |
| 132 | Keenan Robinson | Texas | 6'3" | 240 | 4.68 | 5.5 | 22.5 | 51 | 0.55 | 297 | 10 | 2 |
| 33 | Zach Brown | No. Carolina | 6'2" | 230 | 4.45 | 5.5 | 19.0 | 47 | 0.52 | 230 | 4 | 7 |
| 86 | Josh Kaddu | Oregon | 6'3" | 235 | 4.65 | 3.5 | 10.0 | 26 | 0.52 | 58 | 2 | 0 |
| 383 | Ryan Baker | LSU | 6'0" | 236 | 4.77 | 9.5 | 13.5 | 50 | 0.50 | 174 | 2 | 0 |
| 426 | Steven Johnson | Kansas | 6'1" | 241 | 3.76 | 3.0 | 11.5 | 35 | 0.41 | 229 | 5 | 1 |
| 478 | Nathan Stupar | Penn St. | 6'1" | 239 | 4.77 | 5.0 | 14.5 | 52 | 0.38 | 205 | 10 | 4 |
| 194 | Tyler Nielsen | Iowa | 6'3" | 235 | 4.54 | 1.0 | 8.5 | 44 | 0.22 | 134 | 5 | 1 |
| OVR | Player | School | Hgt | Wgt | 40Tm | Sk | TFL | Gm | P.Ratio | TTKL | TPG | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 253 | Shawn Loiseau | Merrimack | 6'0" | 241 | 4.68 | 11.0 | 36.5 | 38 | 1.25 | 382 | 10.05 | 2 | 1 |
| 57 | Sean Spence | Miami | 5'11" | 224 | 4.58 | 10.5 | 47.0 | 47 | 1.22 | 318 | 6.76 | 12 | 1 |
| 16 | *Luke Kuechly | Boston College | 6'2" | 237 | 4.80 | 2.5 | 33.5 | 38 | 1.00 | 532 | 14.0 | 10 | 7 |
| 150 | Mychal Kendricks | California | 5'11" | 240 | 4.72 | 13.5 | 36.5 | 51 | 0.98 | 258 | 5.06 | 7 | 4 |
| 318 | Chris Marve | Vanderbilt | 6'0" | 242 | 4.86 | 10.0 | 36.0 | 49 | 0.94 | 397 | 8.10 | 5 | 1 |
| 115 | Audie Cole | N.C. State | 6'4" | 239 | 4.84 | 14.0 | 32.0 | 51 | 0.90 | 276 | 7.46 | 8 | 1 |
| 131 | James-Michael Johnson | Nevada | 6'2" | 240 | 4.68 | 7.5 | 37.5 | 54 | 0.83 | 295 | 5.46 | 11 | 3 |
| 88 | *Vontaze Burflict | Arizona St. | 6'3" | 250 | 4.67 | 7.0 | 22.5 | 37 | 0.80 | 228 | 6.16 | 11 | 1 |
| 176 | Jerry Franklin | Arkansas | 6'1" | 241 | 4.60 | 10.0 | 31.0 | 51 | 0.80 | 369 | 7.24 | 14 | 5 |
| 244 | Adrien Cole | Louisiana Tech | 5'11" | 250 | 4.78 | 6.0 | 27.0 | 43 | 0.77 | 324 | 7.53 | 6 | 1 |
| 46 | Bobby Wagner | Utah St. | 6'0" | 232 | 4.69 | 4.5 | 29.5 | 48 | 0.71 | 466 | 9.29 | 9 | 4 |
| 298 | D.J. Holt | California | 6'0" | 242 | 4.84 | 5.0 | 28.0 | 50 | 0.66 | 218 | 4.36 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 | *Dont'a Hightower | Alabama | 6'4" | 260 | 4.78 | 5.0 | 21.0 | 44 | 0.59 | 235 | 5.34 | 7 | 1 |
| 269 | Najae Goode | West Virginia | 6'0" | 245 | 4.76 | 8.0 | 22.5 | 52 | 0.59 | 157 | 3.02 | 7 | 2 |
| 370 | Caleb McSurdy | Montana | 6'1" | 251 | 4.83 | 4.5 | 17.0 | 56 | 0.38 | 293 | 5.23 | 6 | 3 |
| 191 | Chris Galippo | USC | 6'2" | 250 | 4.74 | 1.5 | 15.5 | 51 | 0.33 | 166 | 3.25 | 12 | 5 |
This does not take into account whether these players come from a 3-4 or a 4-3 system, but a Middle Linebacker in a 4-3 needs to be primarily a Tackling machine. If he can accumulate Sacks and Tackles For a Loss, it's a bonus. Luke Kuechly's production numbers show why he is the top ranking Linebacker this year.
A few things to keep in mind here are that John Fox's ideal Linebacker will be around 6-1 to 6-2 in height and weigh about 235 to 245 pounds. And the faster the better, but the player also had to have outstanding instincts
75% of all Linebackers from 1994-2003 who made at least 56 starts in their first five seasons, were drafted in the top ten spots. From 11-20, that number drops to 63.6%. Picks 21-50 drop to a 48.4% rate. 51-80, 30.2% and 81-120, 15%. This does not mean they had success, an impact or outstanding Pro Bowl seasons, merely that percentage of return (in playing time) for their draft position.
The Broncos first three picks are the 25th, 57th and ~88-89th in the 2012 NFL Draft. As things stand from this point, Sean Spence looks pretty attractive with that 2nd pick. I like Bobby Wagner's production too. His Production Ratio number isn't the highest, but he is quick and racks up Tackles. James Laurenaitis had similar numbers a few years back, though he went to Ohio State. He has averaged over 100 Tackles all 3 years he's been in the league and that's the kind of guy I'd like playing the MIKE. However, this is just the first step of the journey. We can revisit this next week after the Combine, along with a new set of numbers. So stay tuned.