We looked at the Production Ratio for the Linebackers who were invited to the NFL Combine on Monday and today we will take a look at the Defensive Linemen to narrow down the search for players that would fit with the Denver Broncos in our eternal quest to play Armchair GMs'. I split them into two categories just like I did with the Linebackers -- the Defensive Tackles (Nose Tackles too) and the Ends. To add some perspective, I charted some of the leading players from last years draft class along with their selection slot and their Production Ratio from their time in college. Because this is a stand alone post, I will restate that this premise has been taken from Pat Kirwan's book, "Take Your Eye Off the Ball."
The Production Ratio is used to measure the playmaking potential for the Front 7 players on Defense coming out of college. The formula goes like this:
(SACKS + TACKLES FOR LOSS)/NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED = PRODUCTION RATIO
Rnd(Pk) | Name | Team | Pos | TKL | Sck | P.Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1(21) | Phillip Taylor | CLE | DT | 59 | 4.0 | 0.58 |
3(77) | Jurrell Casey | TEN | DT | 52 | 2.5 | 0.79 |
5(142) | Karl Klug | TEN | DT | 20 | 7.0 | 1.04 |
3(65) | Terrell McClain | CAR | DT | 19 | 1.0 | 0.50 |
3(87) | Drake Nevis | IND | DT | 19 | 0.0 | 0.92 |
6(184) | David Carter | ARI | DT | 16 | 1.0 | 0.24 |
1(13) | Nick Fairley | DET | DT | 15 | 1.0 | 1.50 |
2(53) | Stephen Paea | CHI | DT | 14 | 2.0 | 1.20 |
4(106) | Christian Ballard | MIN | DT | 13 | 0.0 | 0.68 |
The next chart is a listing of all the Defensive Tackles (27) and Nose Tackles (4) invited to the Combine this week in Indianapolis. Once again, those players with an asterisk are Juniors that declared early for the draft. Also note that Renard Williams, Matt Conrath and Marcus Forston were not invited to the Combine.
OVR | Name | School | Hgt. | Wgt. | 40 Tm | Sks | TFL | Gm | P. Ratio | TTKLs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
52 | Jared Crick | Nebraska | 6'6" | 285 | 4.80 | 20.0 | 35.0 | 42 | 1.31 | 167 |
199 | Derek Wolfe | Cincinnati | 6'5" | 310 | 5.19 | 19.5 | 37.0 | 45 | 1.25 | 162 |
351 | Chas Alecxih | Pittsburgh | 6'4" | 285 | 5.02 | 18 | 29.5 | 41 | 1.16 | 127 |
134 | Brett Roy | Nevada | 6'3" | 280 | 4.88 | 18.0 | 39.0 | 50 | 1.14 | 149 |
7 | Devon Still | Penn St. | 6'5" | 305 | 5.06 | 10.5 | 32.5 | 40 | 1.07 | 113 |
129 | Malik Jackson | Tennessee | 6'5" | 270 | 4.82 | 13.0 | 27.5 | 39 | 1.04 | 126 |
66 | Billy Winn | Boise St. | 6'4" | 295 | 4.90 | 15.5 | 36.5 | 52 | 1.00 | 132 |
23 | *Jerel Worthy | Michigan St. | 6'3" | 310 | 5.04 | 12.0 | 27.5 | 40 | 0.99 | 107 |
511 | Renard Williams | E. Washington | 6'2" | 300 | 5.00 | 24.5 | 40.0 | 68 | 0.95 | 139 |
215 | Mike Daniels | Iowa | 6'1" | 280 | 4.84 | 15.5 | 27.0 | 45 | 0.94 | 123 |
440 | J.R. Sweezy | No. Carolina St. | 6'5" | 293 | 4.95 | 11.0 | 21.0 | 35 | 0.91 | 84 |
50 | Kendall Reyes | Connecticut | 6'4" | 296 | 4.99 | 11.5 | 32.5 | 49 | 0.90 | 142 |
325 | Matt Conrath | Virginia | 6'7" | 281 | 4.84 | 11.5 | 30.5 | 47 | 0.89 | 164 |
25 | *Fletcher Cox | Mississippi St. | 6'4" | 295 | 4.95 | 7.5 | 22.5 | 35 | 0.86 | 107 |
79 | *Marcus Forston | Miami | 6'3" | 300 | 4.95 | 7.0 | 17.5 | 31 | 0.79 | 60 |
28 | *Dontari Poe | Memphis | 6'5" | 350 | 5.00 | 5.0 | 21.5 | 35 | 0.76 | 101 |
96 | Mike Martin (NT) | Michigan | 6'2" | 304 | 4.98 | 10.0 | 25.0 | 49 | 0.71 | 172 |
457 | John Hughes | Cincinnati | 6'4" | 285 | 5.02 | 9.0 | 25.0 | 50 | 0.68 | 141 |
471 | Rennie Moore | Clemson | 6'3" | 266 | 4.83 | 8.5 | 21.0 | 46 | 0.64 | 98 |
234 | Jaye Howard | Florida | 6'3" | 303 | 5.05 | 7.0 | 19.0 | 43 | 0.6 | 111 |
116 | Kheeston Randall (NT) | Texas | 6'5" | 295 | 5.10 | 5.0 | 21.5 | 46 | 0.58 | 82 |
397 | Markus Kuhn | No. Carolina St. | 6'3" | 300 | 4.90 | 7.5 | 18.5 | 48 | 0.54 | 118 |
267 | Travian Robertson | So. Carolina | 6'4" | 305 | 5.08 | 6.5 | 21.0 | 56 | 0.49 | 123 |
13 | *Michael Brockers | LSU | 6'6" | 306 | 4.95 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 27 | 0.48 | 79 |
104 | Alameda Ta'Amu | Washington | 6'3" | 337 | 5.20 | 7.5 | 16.5 | 50 | 0.48 | 109 |
32 | Brandon Thompson | Clemson | 6'2" | 310 | 4.95 | 4.5 | 21.0 | 53 | 0.48 | 161 |
81 | DaJohn Harris | USC | 6'4" | 310 | 5.18 | 5.0 | 14.5 | 43 | 0.45 | 77 |
360 | Dom Hamilton | Missouri | 6'5" | 305 | 5.25 | 5.5 | 15.0 | 46 | 0.44 | 140 |
331 | Tydreke Powell | No. Carolina | 6'3" | 310 | 5.30 | 6.5 | 16.0 | 53 | 0.42 | 136 |
292 | Vaughn Meatoga | Hawaii | 6'2" | 295 | 5.00 | 6.5 | 11.5 | 52 | 0.35 | 81 |
178 | Josh Chapman (NT) | Alabama | 6'1" | 310 | 5.02 | 2.5 | 13.5 | 52 | 0.31 | 88 |
135 | Loni Fangupo | Brigham Young | 6'1" | 331 | 5.08 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 23 | 0.28 | 32 |
378 | Christian Tupou (NT) | USC | 6'2" | 300 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 7.0 | 42 | 0.18 | 53 |
Rnd(Pk) | Name | Team | Pos | TKL | Sck | P.Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1(14) | Robert Quinn | STL | DE | 23 | 5.0 | 1.54 |
1(11) | J.J. Watt | HOU | DE | 56 | 5.5 | 1.20 |
2(37) | Jabaal Sheard | CLE | DE | 55 | 8.5 | 1.19 |
5(165) | Pernell McPhee | BAL | DE | 23 | 6.0 | 1.14 |
1(20) | Adrian Clayborn | TB | DE | 42 | 7.5 | 1.11 |
1(3) | Marcell Dareus | BUF | DE | 43 | 5.5 | 0.93 |
Here are the invites at Defensive End. I have omitted double posting those players from the OLB post that will actually be running with this group. Julian Miller, Ryan Van Bergen and Taylor Thompson were not invited to the Combine.
OVR | Name | School | Hgt. | Wgt. | 40 Tm | Sks | TFL | Gm | P. Ratio | TTKLs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
58 | Vinny Curry | Marshall | 6'3" | 263 | 4.74 | 26.5 | 49.0 | 45 | 1.68 | 239 |
232 | Tyrone Crawford | Boise State | 6'4" | 276 | 4.74 | 13.5 | 27 | 25 | 1.62 | 76 |
254 | Scott Solomon | Rice | 6'3" | 270 | 4.79 | 24.0 | 43.5 | 47 | 1.44 | 207 |
14 | *Nick Perry | USC | 6'3" | 250 | 4.60 | 21.5 | 29.5 | 37 | 1.38 | 103 |
208 | Julian Miller | West Virginia | 6'4" | 268 | 4.85 | 27.5 | 42.5 | 52 | 1.35 | 185 |
316 | Frank Alexander | Oklahoma | 6'4" | 255 | 4.85 | 20.5 | 44.0 | 48 | 1.34 | 142 |
12 | Quinton Coples | No. Carolina | 6'6" | 285 | 4.76 | 24.0 | 40.5 | 50 | 1.29 | 144 |
24 | Whitney Mercilus | Illinois | 6'4" | 265 | 4.68 | 18.0 | 29.0 | 37 | 1.27 | 81 |
59 | *Chandler Jones | Syracuse | 6'5" | 265 | 4.80 | 10.0 | 27.0 | 32 | 1.16 | 147 |
129 | Jake Bequette | Arkansas | 6'5" | 271 | 4.59 | 23.5 | 31 | 48 | 1.13 | 126 |
19 | Melvin Ingram | So. Carolina | 6'2" | 276 | 4.80 | 21.0 | 35.0 | 50 | 1.12 | 109 |
77 | Cam Johnson | Virginia | 6'4" | 270 | 4.76 | 12.5 | 33.5 | 42 | 1.09 | 123 |
34 | Andre Branch | Clemson | 6'5" | 260 | 4.77 | 18.5 | 33.0 | 48 | 1.07 | 186 |
170 | *Olivier Vernon | Miami | 6'4" | 265 | 4.73 | 9.0 | 21.0 | 30 | 1.00 | 82 |
101 | Trevor Guyton | California | 6'3" | 280 | 4.86 | 12.0 | 25 | 41 | 0.90 | 94 |
198 | *Donte Paige-Moss | No. Carolina | 6'7" | 260 | 4.75 | 11.0 | 19.5 | 34 | 0.90 | 83 |
332 | Ryan Van Bergen | Michigan | 6'6" | 288 | 4.84 | 14.5 | 27.5 | 50 | 0.84 | 135 |
243 | Derrick Shelby | Utah | 6'3" | 271 | 4.86 | 11.0 | 28 | 47 | 0.83 | 169 |
287 | Taylor Thompson | SMU | 6'6" | 287 | 4.85 | 18.0 | 22.5 | 50 | 0.81 | 139 |
334 | Jamie Blatnick | Oklahoma St. | 6'3" | 265 | 4.90 | 16.0 | 25.0 | 51 | 0.80 | 118 |
300 | Justin Francis | Rutgers | 6'4" | 275 | 4.85 | 12.0 | 22.0 | 43 | 0.77 | 106 |
181 | Jacquies Smith | Missouri | 6'4" | 255 | 4.60 | 13.0 | 26.0 | 51 | 0.76 | 159 |
160 | Jack Crawford | Penn State | 6'5" | 273 | 4.79 | 14.0 | 26.0 | 48 | 0.62 | 89 |
359 | Jamaar Jarrett | Arizona St. | 6'5" | 262 | 4.90 | 7.5 | 20.5 | 46 | 0.61 | 100 |
304 | DeAngelo Tyson | Georgia | 6'2" | 316 | 5.00 | 3.0 | 8.5 | 50 | 0.23 | 79 |
Now you can see why I have stated this is a deep draft for Defensive Ends. Half of the invites graded out well in the Production Ratio. Just by sheer volume I would venture that the Broncos will grab one of these players.
Former Broncos GM Ted Sundquist wrote an article on Defensive Ends and another on Defensive Tackles. They are both worthwhile reading. He includes these tidbits from separate studies:
71.4% of Defensive Ends drafted 1-10 in the first round made 56 starts in their first 5 seasons (1994-2003) and from picks 11-20 that number fell to 36.8%, 30% from picks 21-50.
Defensive Tackles are most commonly found in the 1st round (21%), 2nd round (12%) and as undrafted free agents (18%). That last number seems significantly high, but in comparison to other positions is actually on the low end.
By this conclusion, it would be wise for the Broncos to secure a Defensive Tackle with one of their top two picks. The Defensive Ends are plentiful and could stand patience before selecting, but hey, I'm not a fly on the wall at Denver's draft headquarters, so this is all speculation. EFX will weigh their options, choose the best player possible and then we can analyze the moves. Just like always.