Denver Broncos Salary Cap Picture--Manning's Cap Hit May Be Less Than Expected

As Denver nears the end of its 2012 run in Free Agency, a relevant question would be "How much more room do they have left?"

I figured I may as well create a new post, which also became an opportunity to export a portion of the data I keep on Broncos salary cap numbers. So below the fold you will find some excerpts from my database, as well as a few projections for what is left to come. Note that these numbers are UNOFFICIAL, as are almost any contract numbers you find online. They may differ from numbers you see on rotoworld or Sportrac, or numbers reported by the beat writers or even numbers reported by NFL agents, who typically inflate numbers when leaking details during the high-pressure signing period to open free agency.

I mention this because my number for Peyton Manning in particular is nearly $5million different from what is being reported right now (I expect that clarity will come soon on that, either for myself or others), but also to note that none of us are any more right than anyone else. Posts like these should be an opportunity to share information, little more.

Having said that, make sure our MHR settings are on "wide" (check your right sidebar if you don't know what I am talking about), and lets get below the fold and see where we are at.

Denver Broncos Team Salary Cap 2012

I Thought Manning's cap number was $18mil this year?

Turns out that he received $6mil up front as an advance, which, by the nature of the guarantees in Manning's contract is guaranteed itself and does not need to ever be paid back, which qualifies it under CBA Article XIII 6(b)iii(8)(10)(11) as a signing bonus which must be prorated over the life of the contract. The reasoning for this is to avoid the "30% rule" (an obscure rule that prevents a players contract from differing up or down by more than 30% from year to year) but still give Denver a chance to limit the current cap hit. So until I hear otherwise, I am going to assume a 2012 cap hit for Peyton of $13.2mil.

What is cost to cut?

I know what you're thinking: "How soon until they cut Andre Goodman?" Leaving aside the merits for that discussion, cost to cut is the acceleration of prorated monies in a contract. So for a guy like Goodman, who is scheduled to count $6.78mil vs. the cap, $2.4mil would instantly accelerate and become dead money going forward. Just something to think about.

Unit-By-Unit Expense Summary

I'm not going to break down the dead money here, but if you are interested ask in the comments. That total number is a bit misleading for the purposes of this exercise, however, since not all of it applies. The league only holds the Broncos accountable for the top 51 contracts at any given time. In addition, they also count any other contracts which reach certain benchmarks, such as double the value of the vet minimum for that player's tier. In Denver's case, only the 51 apply.

Denver also has to set aside cap space for offseason workouts, at a rate predetermined by the league. They will also have cap room earmarked for the signing of the 2012 rookie class as well as space set aside for injury reserve purposes. These are laid out below.

Cap Compliance Breakdown

I expect that right now the Broncos priorities are resigning Marcus Thomas, Jason Hunter, and then bringing Dawkins back sometime before preseason starts. This could cost anywhere from $8-11mil, so by my calculation we should have just enough room to get it done. I'm projecting Dawk at between 3 and 4mil, Hunter between 1 and 2mil, and Thomas between 4-5 mil. Obviously, the closer we pay to their true value, the more likely we are to get all three.

As a last thought, if you still wonder or care which numbers would be best to use, I'll just note the benchmark I use for correcting my database. Every year Jason LaCanfora of ESPN releases timely updates to total team cap compliance, numbers which are reported to him straight from the league office. Since 2009, based on LaCanfora's number, my database has never been above +/-1% of total team cap. As of February 21, this database is within +/-.3%.

Happy armchair GMing MHR!