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In the last article about player value we looked at the Broncos team from a stand point of salary cap percentage and Approximate Value. There was a lot of great discussion as well in the comments about other angles too look at this idea of value and while I do have a few ideas of my own to work through, as this series keeps moving, I'll try and get through as many different sides as possible.
Today I wanted to cover two topics:
- Breaking down the Broncos roster by squad to look at which players had the best value and production at a given positions.
I feel that by looking at the team through these lens's will allow us to see what positions tend to be overvalued and whether it's true, in the case of the Broncos, if free agents are generally overpaid.
Methodology Review:
I would seriously encourage anyone who has read the introduction of my last article to read it since I will be using the same methodology as last time and considering I spend over half of the space in my last article preparing this series. Now I will continue to use the Approximate Value (AV) metric from Pro Football Reference as well as position specific statistics. I will be breaking it down into efficiency metrics to get a better value, so while I might include sacks, I will also include cost per sack. Now I will also include statistics from all areas the player played at. So when looking at Tebow, I will combine rushes and pass attempts into touches, and I'll include all touchdowns, whether combining passing and rushing touchdowns or rushing and receiving touchdowns.
Let's begin by looking at the Broncos position by position:
Tables:
Table Group 1 Offense Positional Review
Quarterbacks:
Player | Salary | AV | Cost per AV | Touches | Cost per Touch | Yards | Cost per Yard | TD's | Cost per TD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orton, Kyle | 8480000 | 2 | 4240000 | 160 | 53000 | 996 | 8514 | 8 | 1060000 |
Tebow, Tim | 4768750 | 8 | 596094 | 393 | 12134 | 2389 | 1996 | 18 | 264931 |
Quinn, Brady | 700000 | 0 | 700000 | 0 | 700000 | 0 | 700000 | 0 | 700000 |
Running Backs:
Player | Salary | AV | Cost per AV | Touches | Cost per Touch | Yards | Cost per Yard | TD's | Cost per TD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
McGahee, Willis | 2500000 | 7 | 357143 | 261 | 9579 | 1250 | 2000 | 5 | 500000 |
Moreno, Knowshon | 1832000 | 2 | 916000 | 48 | 38167 | 280 | 6543 | 1 | 1832000 |
Ball, Lance | 405000 | 3 | 135000 | 112 | 3616 | 550 | 736 | 2 | 202500 |
Johnson, Jeremiah | 465000 | 1 | 465000 | 21 | 22146 | 139 | 3345 | 0 | 465000 |
Larsen, Spencer | 555000 | 2 | 277500 | 23 | 24130 | 120 | 4625 | 0 | 555000 |
Tight Ends:
Player | Salary | AV | Cost per AV | Touches | Cost per Touch | Yards | Cost per Yard | TD's | Cost per TD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fells, Daniel | 1500000 | 4 | 375000 | 19 | 78947 | 256 | 5859 | 3 | 500000 |
Rosario, Dante | 555000 | 2 | 277500 | 7 | 79286 | 117 | 4744 | 0 | 555000 |
Green, Virgil | 379320 | 1 | 379320 | 3 | 126440 | 24 | 15805 | 0 | 379320 |
Thomas, Julius | 471000 | 0 | 471000 | 1 | 471000 | 5 | 94200 | 0 | 471000 |
Wide Receivers:
Player | Salary | AV | Cost per AV | Touches | Cost per Touch | Yards | Cost per Yard | TD's | Cost per TD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Decker, Eric | 1163037 | 6 | 193840 | 45 | 25845 | 613 | 1897 | 9 |
129226 |
Thomas, Demaryius | 2327500 | 4 | 581875 | 33 | 70530 | 556 | 4186 | 4 | 581875 |
Lloyd, Brandon | 1395000 | 2 | 697500 | 19 | 73421 | 283 | 4929 | 0 | 1395000 |
Willis, Matt | 480000 | 2 | 240000 | 18 | 26667 | 267 | 1798 | 1 | 480000 |
Royal, Eddie | 555000 | 2 | 277500 | 26 | 21346 | 203 | 2734 | 2 |
277500 |
Offensive Lineman:
Player | Salary | AV | Cost per AV | Snaps Played | Cost per Snap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clady, Ryan | 1615000 | 6 | 269167 | 1213 | 1331 |
Beadles, Zane | 1007000 | 5 | 201400 | 1215 | 829 |
Walton, J.D. | 604625 | 5 | 120925 | 1215 | 498 |
Kuper, Chris | 7000000 | 5 | 1400000 | 1014 | 6903 |
Franklin, Orlando | 795000 | 6 | 132500 | 1192 | 667 |
Clark, Chris | 405000 | 3 | 135000 | 152 | 2664 |
Table Group 2 Defense Positional Review
Defensive Lineman:
Player | Salary | AV | Cost per AV | Tackles | Cost per Tackle | Sacks | Cost per Sack | QB Pressures | Cost per Pressure |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bunkley, Brodrick | 635000 | 7 | 90714 | 37 | 17162 | 0 | 635000 | 6 | 105833 |
Ayers, Robert | 880000 | 6 | 146667 | 41 | 21463 | 3 | 293333 | 25 | 35200 |
Dumervil, Elvis | 14500000 | 10 | 1450000 | 43 | 337209 | 9.5 | 1526316 | 40 | 362500 |
Harvey, Derrick | 600000 | 1 | 600000 | 4 | 150000 | 0 | 600000 | 3 | 200000 |
Hunter, Jason | 715000 | 3 | 238333 | 23 | 31087 | 1 | 715000 | 9 | 79444 |
McBean, Ryan | 480000 | 3 | 160000 | 8 | 60000 | 0 | 480000 | 9 | 53333 |
Thomas, Marcus | 1000000 | 6 | 166667 | 46 | 21739 | 0 | 1000000 | 4 | 250000 |
Unrein, Mitch | 415000 | 1 | 415000 | 8 | 51875 | 0 | 415000 | 0 | 415000 |
Vickerson, Kevin | 1375000 | 2 | 687500 | 4 | 343750 | 0 | 1375000 | 3 | 458333 |
Linebackers:
Player | Salary | AV | Cost per AV | Tackles | Cost per Tackle | Sacks | Cost per Sack | QB Pressures | Cost per Pressure | Int | Cost per Int |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Williams, D.J. | 4900000 | 7 | 700000 | 70 | 70000 | 5 | 980000 | 11 | 445455 | 0 | 4900000 |
Woodyard, Wesley | 455000 | 4 | 113750 | 60 | 7583 | 0 | 455000 | 2 | 227500 | 0 | 455000 |
Miller, Von | 3800000 | 12 | 316667 | 51 | 74510 | 11.5 | 330435 | 57 | 66667 | 0 | 3800000 |
Mays, Joe | 555000 | 6 | 92500 | 67 | 8284 | 0 | 555000 | 11 | 50455 | 0 | 555000 |
Irving, Nate | 548750 | 1 | 548750 | 1 | 548750 | 0 | 548750 | 1 | 548750 | 0 | 548750 |
Haggan, Mario | 1930000 | 2 | 965000 | 12 | 160833 | 0 | 1930000 | 0 | 1930000 | 1 | 1930000 |
Defensive Backs:
Player | Salary | AV | Cost per AV | Tackles | Cost per Tackle | Sacks | Cost per Sack | QB Pressures | Cost per Pressure | Int | Cost per Int |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goodman, Andre | 2880000 | 7 | 411429 | 43 | 66977 | 0 | 2880000 | 0 | 2880000 | 2 | 1440000 |
Bailey, Champ | 11500000 | 12 | 958333 | 35 | 328571 | 0 | 11500000 | 1 | 11500000 | 2 | 5750000 |
Carter, Quinton | 578750 | 4 | 144688 | 41 | 14116 | 1 | 578750 | 1 | 578750 | 0 | 578750 |
Moore, Rahim | 807500 | 3 | 269167 | 29 | 27845 | 0 | 807500 | 1 | 807500 | 1 | 807500 |
Bruton, David | 600000 | 2 | 300000 | 17 | 35294 | 0 | 600000 | 2 | 300000 | 0 | 600000 |
Dawkins, Brian | 6000000 | 5 | 1200000 | 38 | 157895 | 3 | 2000000 | 3 | 2000000 | 0 | 6000000 |
Harris, Chris | 466000 | 3 | 155333 | 60 | 7767 | 0 | 466000 | 2 | 233000 | 1 | 466000 |
Vaughn, Cassius | 405000 | 2 | 202500 | 15 | 27000 | 0 | 405000 | 0 | 405000 | 1 | 405000 |
Wilhite, Jonathan | 405000 | 2 | 202500 | 23 | 17609 | 2 | 202500 | 3 | 135000 | 1 | 405000 |
A few players that seemed to be a good balance of value and production would be:
- Eric Decker
- Willis McGahee
- The young lineman (Walton, Beadles, Franklin)
- Brodrick Bunkley
- Robert Ayers
- Jason Hunter
- Joe Mays
- Quinton Carter
- Chris Harris
Now these may not have been the best players on the team, but they combined solid production with a good value. I also want to make sure you know I'm not saying we overpaid Champ, Doom or Kuper, though some players may have been overpaid. For a player like Champ or Doom, you have to pay them more to keep their production, which may not be good value, but is hard to replace.
In the next article I'll try and beginning breaking down the league position by position to look for which players are the best value at a specific position, and we'll be doing quarterbacks and running backs next time. Thanks for reading.