One game down, 15 to go in Week 1 of the 2012 NFL Season. With the Broncos on tap to face the Steelers on Sunday Night Football, Bovada have come out with some Prop bets regarding the Broncos, Peyton Manning, and others and their performance this season. Let's take a peek at some of them. I'll give my take, then you can give yours in the comments.
Broncos Player Performance Props
Peyton Manning - Total Passing Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
My Take: UNDER - Not because I don't think Manning is capable of hitting 4250 yards. I think he is primed and ready to do it. I think the Broncos want to run the ball, especially if they are playing from out front. In order to hit the number, Manning would have to average 266 yards per game - certainly feasible - but I think 3900-4100 is more likely.
Peyton Manning - Total Passing Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season
My Take: OVER - The Broncos best Red Zone offense will likely be Manning - this has been an area the team has struggled in past seasons. Manning's ability to get the offense into the right play despite down/distance and location give the Broncos a huge weapon and to be honest there is no one I'd rather have the ball inside the 5 than #18. I think 33-36 is the target.
Peyton Manning - Total Interceptions thrown in the 2012 Regular Season
Over/Under 15 ½
My Take: UNDER - This number surprised me. While Manning did throw a few interceptions in the preseason, he is very good at protecting the ball and with the Broncos playing a tough schedule at the start of the season I believe he'll be even more careful. Sure, there is going to be some miscommunication along the way but this number should be in the 11-13 range.
What about some of the other Broncos? Let's take a look:
Willis McGahee - Total Rushing Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
Over/Under 900 ½
My Take: OVER - But not by much. McGahee is going to get a bunch of carries early in the season, but as the season goes on, and Manning gets more comfortable, I could see the short passing game becoming the running attack and McGahee - along with Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman - becoming targets out of the backfield. I'll give McGahee 950 yards rushing this season.
Willis McGahee - Total Rushing Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season
Over/Under 7 ½
My Take: UNDER - See my take above regarding Manning's TD potential. McGahee will likely get into the End Zone a total of 7 or 8 times this season, but not rushing alone. I feel better about 5 rushing TDs.
Demaryius Thomas - Total Receiving Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
My Take: OVER - I know Eric Decker looks to be Manning's favorite target right now, but the explosive plays are going to come form Thomas. I see Decker having more receptions, but Thomas piling up more yards. I'm thinking 1150 for Thomas in 2012.
Demaryius Thomas - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season
Over/Under 7 ½
My Take: UNDER - Thomas will score on big plays, but the Red Zone is going to be Decker/Tamme/Dreesen territory. Go with 5 TDs for Thomas.
Eric Decker - Total Receiving Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
Over/Under 1000 ½
My Take: UNDER - Like I said above, I think Decker will approach 90 receptions this season, but will finish in the 900-yard-range. He's going to be a huge force down at the goal line, however.
Eric Decker - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season
Over/Under 7 ½
My Take: OVER - Decker is going to become Manning's favorite end zone target and will keep feeding it to him until someone stops it. No one will until Decker is sitting with 15 TDs.
Elvis Dumervil - Total Sacks in the 2012 Regular Season
Over/Under 8 ½
My Take: OVER - Maybe this is more of a homer choice because if the Broncos defense is going to be Championship Caliber I believe whole-heartedly that both Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller need to collect double-digit sacks. If all goes according to plan, the Broncos will have leads in several games this season with opponents needing to throw to get back into games. That means Doom and Miller will have plenty of opportunities to pile up the quarterbacks.
Von Miller - Total Sacks in the 2012 Regular Season
Over/Under 10 ½
My Take: OVER - See my explanation above. Miller is primed to become an absolute BEAST in his second season and Jack Del Rio is going to allow him to do it. 17 sacks is not out of the question.
Champ Bailey - Total Interceptions in the 2012 Regular Season
Over/Under 2 ½
My Take: OVER - While Champ continues to defy his age, I think the arrival of Manning will re-energize and re-focus Bailey even more than usual. He knows, with the offense the Broncos are likely to have, that a couple huge plays on defense could be all the team needs. I like Bailey to finish with 5 picks this season.
Your turn - agree with me? Disagree? Let me know in the comments!