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2013 NFL Draft: Defensive End Production Ratio

Looking at the Defensive End prospects for the Broncos in the 2013 Draft.

By KaptainKirk

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Will Jason Hunter be back in 2013?
Will Jason Hunter be back in 2013?
Hannah Foslien

The Denver Broncos got good production from the Defensive Line in 2012. In fact is was better than many expected. Today we are going to look at the Defensive End position for the Broncos.

This group is one of the younger groups on the team, which is a good thing. The trenches tend to exact a heavy toll on the body and a good mix of youth and experience is necessary for a team that is now expected to be a postseason contender for a while, thanks to John Elway.

Player Age/Exp. 2012 2013
Robert Ayers 27/4th $975K $1.06M
Jason Hunter 29/7th $700K UFA
Elvis Dumervil 28/7th $14M $12M
Derek Wolfe 22/R $390K $480K + RB
Ben Garland 24/1st PS Futures
Jeremy Beal 25/1st $390K $405K
Malik Jackson 23/R $390K $405K

I have charted where the team sits as far as the D-Line is concerned. As you can see, Jason Hunter is the lone Unrestricted Free Agent. As a 7 year veteran, his minimum salary for 2013 must be at least $840K. My guess is that the Broncos re-sign him. Ben Garland made Practice Squad money last season and was recently given a Futures contract. Derek Wolfe will receive a roster bonus to go along with his 2013 salary.

It is hard to say whether the team will draft a player for this group in April, but nevertheless, we are going to see what’s out there.

The formula for the Production Ratio looks like this:

(SACKS + TACKLES FOR LOSS)/NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED = PRODUCTION RATIO

This formula comes from Pat Kirwan’s book, "Take Your Eye Off the Ball." If you haven’t read it, I highly recommend it. It is an easy read.

What we are looking for someone who scores a 1.0 or better.

Rnd - The Projected Round for the prospect to be drafted in.
OVR - The overall draft ranking from CBSSports.com

Rnd OVR Player School Ht Wgt 40T Gm TKL TFL SK PD FF FR P.Ratio
1 2 *Bjoern Werner Florida St 6-4 256 4.78 34 78 27 17 14 3 2 1.29
1 6 *Damonte Moore Texas A&M 6-4 250 4.83 38 197 45 26.5 5 8 0 1.88
1 18 *Sam Montgomery LSU 6-5 260 4.59 32 104 32.5 19 2 3 0 1.61
1 23 Alex Okafor Texas 6-5 265 4.78 52 150 34 23 4 7 0 1.09
1 24 Ezekiel Ansah BYU 6-5 243 4.74 31 72 13 4.5 10 1 0 0.56
1-2 27 Dion Jordan Oregon 6-6 270 4.68 48 121 29 14.5 2 4 0 0.91
1-2 40 Margus Hunt SMU 6-7 260 4.74 40 81 16.5 7.5 7 2 0 0.60
2 65 Datone Jones UCLA 6-4 275 4.82 51 148 26.5 12.5 5 3 0 0.96
2-3 72 Cornellius Carradine Florida St 6-4 265 4.75 13 38 8 16.5 0 1 1 1.88
2-3 88 Malliciah Goodman Clemson 6-4 280 4.74 54 127 23 12 3 8 0 0.64
3 97 *Cory Lemonier Auburn 6-3 242 4.78 39 98 24 17 1 7 0 1.05
3 109 *William Gholston Michigan St 6-6 278 4.76 36 142 30 10 13 0 2 1.11
3-4 120 LaVar Edwards LSU 6-4 258 4.82 52 96 20 10.5 7 2 1t 0.58
3-4 126 Michael Buchanan Illinois 6-5 240 4.75 44 161 26 14 10 2 0 0.90
4 141 *Joe Kruger Utah 6-6 280 4.89 36 69 14 9 4 3 0 0.63
4-5 157 Devin Taylor S. Carolina 6-7 267 4.79 52 161 35 18.5 18 2 1 1.02
5 169 David Bass Missouri W.St 6-3 262 4.76 50 210 61 28.5 19 1 1 1.79
5-6 185 Eric Martin Nebraska 6-2 250 4.78 53 123 20 11 1 2 0 0.58
6 204 Craig Roh Michigan 6-4 280 4.87 26 70 13.5 8 0 0 1 0.82
6-7 232 Tremayne Scott Ohio 6-3 257 4.76 39 94 15.5 7.5 2 5 1 0.58
6-7 239 Quanterus Smith W. Kentucky 6-5 248 4.74 46 135 41 24 3 5 1t 1.41
7 263 Joe Vellano Maryland 6-2 285 5.40 41 219 32 13.5 2 4 1t 1.11
7-FA 271 Mike Catapano Princeton 6-4 272 4.76 30 108 13.5 7 8 1 2 0.68
7-FA 284 Travis Johnson San Jose St 6-2 249 4.82 50 218 49 32 2 3 0 1.62
7-FA 293 Aldrick Fordham S. Carolina 6-4 268 4.75 41 45 7.5 5.5 0 2 0 0.31
7-FA 299 Cornelius Washington Georgia 6-4 268 4.79 51 76 17 10.5 3 0 0 0.53
7-FA 306 Wes Horton USC 6-5 255 4.77 48 117 18 14.5 9 2 0 0.67
7-FA 316 Dan Giordano Cincinnati 6-3 260 4.83 51 168 30 16.5 4 3 0 0.91
7-FA 327 Sean Progar N. Illinois 6-2 254 4.79 54 169 39.5 24 5 5 1 1.17
-- 355 Nathan Williams Ohio St 6- 250 4.83 45 131 24 12 5 3 0 0.80
-- 358 Marquis Jackson Portland St 6- 260 4.87 10 36 10,5 7.5 3 1 1 1.80
-- 378 Quinton Dial Alabama 6- 304 5.14 24 46 8 2.5 0 0 0 0.43
-- 389 Izaan Cross Georgia Tech 6- 300 4.96 52 109 13 4 11 2 0 0.32
-- 397 Tourek Williams Florida Intl. 6- 262 4.75 50 150 45 18 7 2 0 1.26

We have seen that this is a good measure for further study of a draft worthy player. Enough to make it worthwhile anyway. It is not the end-all of tools to use when evaluating draft prospects, but a reasonable starting point.

The Denver Broncos have the 28th, 60th and 92nd picks (so far) in the 2013 NFL Draft on April 25-27th.

Werner, Moore and Montgomery will be gone by the time the Broncos turn comes up, but Alex Okafor might be hanging around. Dion Jordan could be intriguing at 28, but I believe there will be a better fit at a position with a higher priority. That’s not to say that the Broncos Defensive Line doesn’t need to improve, because it does. Even the strongest position groups need competition.

Datone Jones looks appealing in the 2nd round. In the 3rd, Juniors Cory Lemonier and William Gholston stand out. Although at 242 lbs, perhaps Lemonier would transfer better to a 3-4 Linebacker.

Small school prospects such as David Bass, Marquis Jackson and Tourek Williams might be worth pursuing as CFA's.


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