:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/22007843/20131027_lbm_ac5_342.0.jpg)
Hi everybody. The Water Cooler Quarterbacks are back. There was a week off from our discussions due to the fact that I was preparing to take a day off from work in order to go visit a Broncos fan who's only been one for the last nine months -- my grandson, Tommy.
Anyway, we decided that since it's the halfway point in the season, we would take a look at how our respective teams have fared in seasons where they started with the same record as their current 2013 records. We limited the search to those seasons from 1970 (the year that the AFL/NFL officially merged) to 2012. We realize that this is not an absolutely predictive look at how our teams will finish the 2013 season. After all, teams have been known to make spectacular slides after a good start -- witness the 2009 Broncos who turned a 6-0-0 start into an 8-8-0 finish and missed the playoffs. Teams have also been known to make phenomenal runs to finish a season -- witness the 2012 Broncos who started 2-3-0 but finished 13-3-0 with the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs.
In any event, how have the teams followed by the Water Cooler Quarterbacks fared when starting the same way as in 2013?
The Broncos have started with a 7-1-0 record five times since 1970. All five times they finished with a winning record with an average record of 12.2-3.4-0. They made the playoffs all five seasons. Denver advanced to the AFC Championship game three times and advanced to the Super Bowl following each AFC Championship game appearance (SB XII, SB XXI, SB XXXII). The Broncos won one Super Bowl (SB XXXII).
The 49ers have had eleven 6-2-0 starts. They finished with a winning record each time with an average record of 11.3-4.3-0. They appeared in the post season in ten of those eleven seasons. They advanced to the NFC Championship game six times and moved on to the Super Bowl following three of those six games (SB XVI, SB XXiX, SB XLVII). The 49ers won two of those Super Bowls (XVI, XXIX).
The Patriots have posted nine 6-2-0 starts. They finished with a winning record in seven of them and a .500 season twice. Their average record was 10.6-5.2. They participated in the post season five times and advanced to the AFC Championship game twice. They made one Super Bowl appearance, which they won (SB XXXVIII).
The Chargers have started with this record nine times. They have finished with a winning record three times, a .500 record three times and a losing record three times. There average record with this start was 8.9-6.7-0. They made the playoffs each time that they posted a winning record. They advanced to the AFC Championship game once. They did not make it into the Super Bowl.
The Cowboys have been in this position six times. They finished with winning records in two seasons, .500 records in two seasons and losing records in two seasons. They made the playoffs in both seasons that they posted a winning record. They did not advance to NFC Championship game either time.
For those who would prefer to see this in a table format, it looks like this:
| Broncos | 49ers | Patriots | Chargers | Cowboys | |
| Current Record | 7-1-0 | 6-2-0 | 6-2-0 | 4-3-0 | 4-4-0 |
| Times Started |
5 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
| Winning Seasons | 5 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 2 |
| .500 Seasons | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Losing Seasons | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Average Record | 12.2-3.4 | 11.3-4.3 | 10.6-5.2 | 8.9-6.7 | 7.7-7.8 |
| Playoff Appear | 5 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Conf Champ Appear | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| SB Appear | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| SB Wins | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The Dolphins have experienced a 3-4-0 start six times. They finished with a winning record three times, a .500 record once and a losing record twice. Their average record was 8.2-7.3-0. They advanced to the playoffs just one time but bowed out in the Wild Card round.
Things do not look promising for the Raiders. They have started with a 3-4-0 record eleven times. They finished with a winning record just once and a .500 record twice. They finished with a losing record eight times. Their average record is 6.4-9.5. They have not made the playoffs after a 3-4-0 start.
Things look equally grim for the Browns. They have started with a 3-5-0 record six times. They have not posted a winning, nor a .500 season in any of those six seasons. They have not made the playoffs following that kind of start.
The astounding thing about the Steelers' 2013 start is that they have only had this poor a beginning twice since 1970. In one season they were able to rally to finish with a .500 record. In the other, they finished with a losing record. They did not make the playoffs either time.
For those who would prefer to see this in a table format, it looks like this:
| Dolphins | Raiders | Browns | Steelers | |
| Current Record | 3-4-0 | 3-4-0 | 3-5-0 | 2-5-0 |
| Times with Start | 6 | 11 | 6 | 2 |
| Winning Seasons | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| .500 Seasons | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Losing Seasons | 2 | 8 | 6 | 1 |
| Average Record | 8.2-7.3 | 6.4-9.5 | 4.7-11.3 | 7.0-9.0 |
| Playoff Appear | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Conf Champ Appear | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SB Appear | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SB Wins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The Water Cooler Quarterbacks believe that it is safe to say -- based on history -- that the 2013 starts of the Broncos and 49ers bodes well for their chances to make it into the post-season and that San Diego and Dallas should not, by any means be counted out. Miami, while facing an uphill battle, has an outside chance -- they've done it once before. Oakland, Cleveland and Pittsburgh -- again based on history -- should be prepared to throw in the towel.
Obvious observations, you say? Of course they are, but observations based on historical precedence nonetheless. After all, isn't that -- at least in part -- what we do as fans: look for reasons to believe that, for our team, this might just be the year when they win it all?
The Water Cooler Quarterbacks wish you an awesome week of football.
Go Broncos!!!!!
Oh, before I forget, for those of you who would like to see what the individual seasons referenced above looked like, here they are:
Denver 7-1-0
| Year | Record | Wild Card | Divisional | Conf Championship | Super Bowl |
| 1977 | 12-2-0 | def Pit 34-21 | def Oak 20-17 | lost to Dal 10-27 | |
| 1984 | 13-3-0 | lost to Pit 17-24 | |||
| 1986 | 11-5-0 | def NE 22-17 | def Cle 23-20 OT | lost to NYG 20-39 | |
| 1996 | 13-3-0 | lost to Jac 27-30 | |||
| 1997 | 12-4-0 | def Jac 42-17 | def KC 14-10 | def Pit 24-21 | def GB 31-24 |
San Francisco 6-2-0
| Year | Record | Wild Card | Divisional | Conf Championship | Super Bowl |
| 1971 | 9-5-0 | def Was 24-20 | lost to Dal 3-14 | ||
| 1976 | 8-6-0 | ||||
| 1981 | 13-3-0 | def NYG 38-24 | def Dal 28-27 | def Cin 26-21 | |
| 1983 | 10-6-0 | def Det 24-23 | lost to Was 21-24 | ||
| 1992 | 14-2-0 | def Was 20-13 | lost to Dal 20-30 | ||
| 1994 | 13-3-0 | def Chi 44-15 | def Dal 38-28 | def SD 49-26 | |
| 1996 | 12-4-0 | def Phi 14-0 | lost to GB 14-35 | ||
| 1998 | 12-4-0 | def GB 30-27 | lost to Atl 18-20 | ||
| 2001 | 12-4-0 | lost to GB 15-25 | |||
| 2002 | 10-6-0 | def NYG 39-38 | lost to TB 6-31 | ||
| 2012 | 11-4-1 | def GB 45-31 | def Atl 28-24 | lost to Bal 31-34 |
New England 6-2-0
| Year | Record | Wild Card | Divisional | Conf Championship | Super Bowl |
| 1974 | 7-7-0 | ||||
| 1978 | 11-5-0 | lost Hou Oilers 14-31 | |||
| 1979 | 9-7-0 | ||||
| 1980 | 10-6-0 | ||||
| 1999 | 8-8-0 | ||||
| 2003 | 14-2-0 | def Ten 17-14 | def Ind 24-14 | def Car 32-29 | |
| 2006 | 12-4-0 | def NYJ 37-16 | def SD 24-21 | lost to Ind 34-38 | |
| 2009 | 10-6-0 | lost to Bal 14-33 | |||
| 2010 | 14-2-0 | lost to NYJ 21-28 |
San Diego 4-3-0
| Year | Record | Wild Card | Divisional | Conf Championship | Super Bowl |
| 1976 | 6-8-0 | ||||
| 1977 | 7-7-0 | ||||
| 1984 | 7-9-0 | ||||
| 1996 | 8-8-0 | ||||
| 1999 | 8-8-0 | ||||
| 2004 | 12-4-0 | lost to NYJ 17-20 | |||
| 2007 | 11-5-0 | def Ten 17-6 | def Ind 28-24 | lost to NE 12-21 | |
| 2009 | 13-3-0 | lost to NYJ 14-17 | |||
| 2011 | 8-8-0 |
Dallas 4-4-0
| Year | Record | Wild Card | Divisional | Conf Championship | Super Bowl |
| 1974 | 8-6-0 | ||||
| 1987 | 7-8-0 | ||||
| 1997 | 6-10-0 | ||||
| 1999 | 8-8-0 | lost to Min 10-27 | |||
| 2006 | 9-7-0 | lost to Sea 20-21 | |||
| 2011 | 8-8-0 |
Miami 3-4-0
| Year | Record | Wild Card | Divisional | Conf Championship | Super Bowl |
| 1976 | 6-8-0 | ||||
| 1987 | 8-7-0 | ||||
| 1991 | 8-8-0 | ||||
| 2005 | 9-7-0 | ||||
| 2008 | 11-5-0 | lost to Bal 9-27 | |||
| 2009 | 7-9-0 |
Oakland/Los Angeles 3-4-0
| Year | Record | Wild Card | Divisional | Conf Championship | Super Bowl |
| 1981 | 7-9-0 | ||||
| 1987 | 5-10-0 | ||||
| 1988 | 7-9-0 | ||||
| 1989 | 8-8-0 | ||||
| 1992 | 7-9-0 | ||||
| 1994 | 9-7-0 | ||||
| 1996 | 7-9-0 | ||||
| 1997 | 4-12-0 | ||||
| 2005 | 4-12-0 | ||||
| 2010 | 8-8-0 | ||||
| 2012 | 4-12-0 |
Cleveland 3-5-0
| Year | Record | Wild Card | Divisional | Conf Championship | Super Bowl |
| 2003 | 5-11-0 | ||||
| 2004 | 4-12-0 | ||||
| 2005 | 6-10-0 | ||||
| 2008 | 4-12-0 | ||||
| 2010 | 5-11-0 | ||||
| 2012 | 4-12-0 |